Introdução: As doenças sensíveis ao clima são as que podem ser afetadas, direta ou indiretamente, temporalmente ou geograficamente pelo clima. Diversas variáveis climáticas têm sido fortemente relacionadas à magnitude e à sazonalidade da transmissão dessas doenças no país. Mas o Brasil possui uma grande diversidade climática em suas regiões e, portanto, maneiras diferentes de influenciar no comportamento dessas doenças. No município de Rio Branco, anualmente as oscilações climáticas são intensificadas pelas queimadas e pela ocorrência de enchentes e inundações. Com a perspectiva das mudanças climáticas globais, a tendência é o aumento da frequência desses eventos. Dessa forma, são necessários estudos mais detalhados que possam contribuir para as políticas de promoção à saúde nesta região. Objetivo: Estudar o comportamento da ocorrência das principais doenças sensíveis ao clima da região frente à variabilidade climática, no município de Rio Branco, entre os anos de 2000 e 2013. Métodos: Foram estudadas as doenças sensíveis ao clima de maior importância para a região: doenças diarreicas infecciosas, leptospirose, dengue e as doenças respiratórias (influenza, asma e pneumonia). A coleta dos dados foi feita por meio dos Sistemas de Informações Hospitalares e de Agravos de Notificação do Sistema Único de Saúde. Os dados referentes às variáveis climáticas (temperatura, umidade relativa, precipitação, nível do Rio Acre e aerossóis) foram obtidos do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, da Agência Nacional das Águas e do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Para as análises de associação, foram considerados os modelos lineares generalizados clássicos, os autorregressivos e médias móveis e os mistos, com distribuição binomial negativa. Resultados: Neste município, existe associação positiva entre as médias mensais do nível do Rio Acre e as taxas mensais de internações por doenças diarreicas infecciosas e as incidências mensais de dengue e leptospirose. Isto indica que a população fica mais exposta a essas doenças durante as cheias e inundações do Rio Acre. A precipitação esteve positivamente relacionada às taxas de internações por dengue e leptospirose. No entanto, as chuvas parecem exercer efeito protetor para as doenças respiratórias, característica contrária das demais regiões do país. As temperaturas mais altas parecem favorecer a ocorrência de dengue na região, mas exercem efeito protetor para internações por pneumonia para crianças com menos de 5 anos de idade e idosos com mais de 70. Por fim, os aerossóis estiveram diretamente relacionados ao aumento das taxas de internações por pneumonia e asma, tanto para idosos quanto crianças, especialmente as com menos de 1 ano de idade. Conclusões: Ao considerar também os aerossóis, a influência do clima foi medida, neste estudo, em sinergia com as mudanças ambientais produzidas pelos humanos na saúde da população. Com as mudanças climáticas globais, os padrões climáticos estão sofrendo mudanças em diversos lugares do mundo. Dessa forma, a ampliação deste conhecimento em nível regional é fundamental para que se possa implementar ações de prevenção e mitigação dos impactos, principalmente para a população mais exposta / Introduction: Climate-sensitive diseases are those that can directly, indirectly, temporally, or geographically be affected by climate. Several climatic variables have been strongly related to the magnitude and seasonality of transmission of these diseases in the country. Brazil, however, has a great climatic diversity in its regions; therefore, different factors influence the nature of these diseases. In the municipality of Rio Branco, climatic oscillations increase by fires and floods. With the perspective of global climatic changes, the tendency is for these events to occur more often. More detailed studies are, thus, required that can contribute to health promotion policies in this region. Objective: To study the effect of climatic variability on the frequency of occurrence of the main climate-sensitive diseases in the municipality of Rio Branco, between 2000 and 2013. Methods: The climate-sensitive diseases of greatest importance to the region were studied, including infectious diarrheic diseases, leptospirosis, dengue fever, and respiratory diseases (influenza, asthma, and pneumonia). Data were collected through the Hospital Information and Case Registry Databases of the Unified Health System. Data on the climatic variables (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, Acre River level, and aerosols) were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology, National Water Agency, and National Institute of Space Research. For analyses of associations, the classical generalized linear, autoregressive, mobile, and mixed mean models, with negative binomial distribution were considered. Results: Positive associations were found among the monthly means of the Acre River level, hospitalization rates due to infectious diarrheic diseases, and incidences of dengue fever and leptospirosis. This indicates that the population is more exposed to these diseases during high tides and floods in the Acre River. Rainfall was positively related to the hospitalization rates due to dengue fever and leptospirosis. However, the rains seemed to have a protective effect against respiratory diseases, contrary to the characteristic of the other regions of the country. High temperatures seemed to favor the occurrence of dengue fever in the region; however, had a protective effect against hospitalizations due to pneumonia (for individuals 70 years). Lastly, aerosol concentrations were directly related to hospitalization rates caused by pneumonia and asthma, both in elderly individuals and children, especially those aged <1 year. Conclusions: In this study, the synergistic effect of natural and anthropogenic (considering aerosols) climate/environmental variations on population health was assessed. With global climatic changes, climatic standards are changing in many parts of the world. Thus, increasing this knowledge at a regional level is essential to implement preventive actions and reduce the impacts, mainly on the more exposed population

Documenter la variabilité climatique récente est nécessaire à la compréhension des mécanismes en jeu, associés au rôle du bilan de masse de l’Antarctique pour l’élévation du niveau des mers globale. Les enregistrements issus des carottes peu profondes d’Antarctique sont des données précieuses, complémentaires aux observations instrumentales et satellitaires, pour couvrir en continu l’ensemble du continent. Mesurés le long de ces carottes de glace, les isotopes stables de l’eau sont traditionnellement utilisés pour quantifier les changements passés de la température locale.Cette thèse doctorale a été initiée dans le cadre du programme de l’Agence Nationale de la Recherche ASUMA (“Improving the Accurancy of SUrface Mass balance of Antarctica”), ayant pour objectif de reconstruire et identifier les processus contrôlant la variabilité spatio-temporelle du bilan de masse de surface (BMS) de la Terre Adélie. J’ai utilisé des données d’isotopes stables de l’eau enregistrées dans des carottes de névé, des simulations atmosphériques produites par le modèle atmosphérique de circulation générale de haute résolution ECHAM5-wiso équipé des isotopes stables de l’eau, des réanalyses atmosphériques, des rétro-trajectoires, ainsi que des observations instrumentales satellitaires et de surface.Dans une première partie, j’ai évalué les capacités du modèle ECHAM5-wiso à simuler les températures de l’Antarctique, le BMS, le δ18O et le d-excess (ci-après, d-excess), comme prérequis à l’exploitation du modèle pour interpréter les compositions isotopiques. J’ai développé des diagnostics pour les relations δ18O-température et d-excess- δ18O sur l’ensemble du continent de l’Antarctique, en montrant que les différences issues des pentes des relations δ18O-température spatiales, inter-annuelles et saisonnières. Au sein du groupe de travail international de PAGES (Past Global Changes) Antarctica2k, j’ai utilisé des calibrations établies issues du modèle ECHAM5-wiso pour reconstruire la température de 7 régions d’Antarctique à partir d’une synthèse d’enregistrements de δ18O issus de carottes de glace couvrant les 2 000 dernières années.Dans une seconde partie, de nouveaux enregistrements issus de deux carottes de névé extraites en Terre Adélie, la S1C1 et la TA192A, ont été exploités, couvrant respectivement les périodes 1947-2007 et 1998-2014. Les BMS reconstruits décrivent une grande variabilité spatiale (74,11 ± 14,1 cm w.e. y-1 et 21,8 ± 6,9 cm w.e. y-1 pour la TA192A et la S1C1 respectivement), cohérente avec les données de balise disponibles. En utilisant une base de données mise à jour des isotopes stables de l’eau de l’Antarctique, j’ai montré que les valeurs moyennes isotopiques de Terre Adélie appartiennent à l’intervalle des valeurs côtières de l’Antarctique. Des analyses statistiques montrent une absence de relation entre nos enregistrements avec la température de surface locale à l’échelle inter-annuelle, mais des relations significatives avec des rétro-trajectoires atmosphériques et des simulations isotopiques suggérant que les isotopes de l’eau de la Terre Adélie fournissent des indications de la variabilité de la dynamique atmosphérique et du transport d’humidité, aux échelles saisonnière et inter-annuelle.Les analyses de cette thèse ont été limitées par la quantité d’enregistrements isotopiques disponibles pour la Terre Adélie, ainsi que par le manque de compréhension des effets de dépôt et de post-dépôt. Il est donc nécessaire d’exploiter les nouvelles carottes de névé extraites au cours du programme ASUMA, et d’effectuer en continu des mesures de la composition isotopique des précipitations, de la vapeur d’eau et de la neige de surface de Terre Adélie, en combinaison avec des outils de simulations atmosphériques, tels que des rétro-trajectoires associées à un diagnostic des sources d’humidité, et des modèles atmosphériques de circulation générale et régionaux équipés des isotopes stables de l’eau. / Documenting recent Antarctic climate variability is needed in order to understand the mechanisms at play, associated with the role of Antarctic mass balance for global sea level rise. Proxy records from Antarctic shallow firn cores are precious data, which complement instrumental and remote sensing observations to continuously cover the whole continent. Within these ice cores, water stable isotopes are commonly used to quantify past changes in local temperature.This PhD thesis was initiated within the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche “Improving the Accurancy of SUrface Mass balance of Antarctica” (ASUMA) project, which aims to reconstruct and to identify the processes controlling the spatio-temporal variability of the surface mass balance (SMB) in Adélie Land. I used water stable isotopes records from recently drilled shallow firn cores, as well as atmospheric simulations performed with the high resolution atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso model, equipped with water stable isotopes, atmospheric reanalyses and back-trajectories, instrumental and remote sensing climate observations.In a first part, I assessed the skills of the ECHAM5-wiso with respect to Antarctic temperature, SMB, δ18O and deuterium excess (hereafter d-excess), as a prerequisite for the exploitation of the model to interpret isotope compositions. I developed Antarctic-wide diagnostics of the δ18O-temperature and d-excess- δ18O relationships, showing differences in the spatial, seasonal and interannual δ18O-temperature slopes. Within the international working group of PAGES (Past Global Changes) Antarctica 2k, I used the calibrations inferred from ECHAM5-wiso to reconstruct temperatures over 7 Antarctic regions from a synthesis of ice core δ18O records spanning the past 2,000 years.In a second part, new water stable isotope records from two firn core drilled in Adélie Land, the S1C1 and the TA192A, were investigated, covering the periods 1947-2007 and 1998-2014 respectively. The reconstructed SMB display a high spatial variability (74.1 ± 14.1 cm w.e. y-1 and 21.8 ± 6.9 cm w.e. y-1 for the TA192A and S1C1 respectively), consistent with Adélie Land stake data. Using an updated database of Antarctic water stable isotope datasets, I showed that the mean isotopic values (δ18O and d-excess) in Adélie Land are in line with the range of Antarctic coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our records and local surface air temperature, at the inter-annual scale, but significant relationships with atmospheric back-trajectories and isotopic simulations, suggesting that water stable isotopes in Adélie Land provide fingerprints of the variability of atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, at the seasonal and inter-annual scales.The analyses performed during this PhD thesis have been limited by the few available Adélie Land water stable isotope records, and by the lack of understanding of deposition and post-deposition processes. Further work is thus needed to exploit the new firn cores drilled within the ASUMA project, and to monitor continuously Adélie Land water stable isotopes in precipitation, surface water vapour and surface snow, in combination with tools of atmospheric simulations such as back-trajectory simulations provided with moisture sources diagnostics, as well as water stable isotopes-enabled atmospheric general and regional circulation models.

Submitted by Jorge Silva (jorgelmsilva@ufrrj.br) on 2017-08-16T19:52:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017 - Givanildo de Gois.pdf: 10268407 bytes, checksum: 6b0d9ed5afee22baa701ac9aa599b1e9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-16T19:52:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017 - Givanildo de Gois.pdf: 10268407 bytes, checksum: 6b0d9ed5afee22baa701ac9aa599b1e9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-22 / CAPES / Few studies were based on the areas of Physical and Statistical Climatology applied to the state of Rio de Janeiro (ERJ), focused on natural disasters (droughts, floods and desertification) based on climatic data and orbital products. The time series used were 47 years (1967 to 2013) and 71 years (1943 to 2013). Both series come from 100 existing stations belonging to ANA, CPRM, INMET, SERLA and LIGHT. The temporal series (raw data) were faulty and were filled with TRMM satellite 3B43 product (1998 to 2013) and INMET climatological norm (1947 to 1997). The series were submitted to descriptive, exploratory, parametric (Shapiro-Wilks-SW and Barlett-B), non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall-MK, Sen-Se, Pettitt and SOCUM), Box Cox transformation and analysis Grouping (AA). In addition, monthly data from the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) between 2001- 2012 with the objective of verifying the trend of increase and decrease of vegetation in the ERJ by non-parametric tests and future scenarios by the Markov Chain. Estimation of the monthly mean air temperature (Tmi) in the ERJ based on observed series and reanalyses or the composition of both, and being adjusted to the three-base linear multiple regression (RLM) and linear regression models: Bases 1 Reanalysis / NCEP), 2 (INMET / NCDC) and 3 (Reanalysis / NCEP and INMET / NCDC) between 1948 and 2015. Descriptive analysis showed a probability of occurrence above 75%. The SW and B tests presented a low significance level for p-value (? < 5%) and the hypothesis of normality and homogeneity of variances in the stations was rejected. The Box Cox transformation was effective in stabilizing the residue normality and homogeneity of variance of the monthly rainfall series of the Middle Para?ba and Serrana regions, except for the Northwest Fluminense. The high variability of ? (0.326 to 0.565) is due to the fact that most of the stations are in the Sierra do Mar slope facing the mainland, where rainfall is influenced by the interaction of topography with local and synoptic systems, only one season In the Serra do Mar slope facing the Atlantic Ocean with influence of the coastal environment and the mesoscale and synoptic systems, in the series of 71 years. Based on AA were chosen 11 stations with normality or homogeneity of variance characterized two homogeneous pluviometric groups (G1 and G2) in the ERJ. For the trend analysis, the MK test and method were shown the presence of non significant trends of rainfall increase in the annual and seasonal scales. Pettitt and SOCUM were efficient in identifying the years of possible non-significant or insignificant abrupt changes in the 71-year time series. The SOCUM test identified 39 ENSO events in groups G1 and G2. The highest percentage in the neutral events (48.72%) and the lowest in the moderate El Ni?o and La Ni?a weak and strong (5.13%). An insignificant trend of vegetation growth is observed at 75%, followed by a significant downward trend of 25% of the ERJ Government regions. The Pettitt test showed the existence of abrupt changes not significant (NS), both growth and vegetation decrease in 6 regions and significant (S) decrease in 2 regions. The predictions of changes ranging from 1 to 2 years at constant intervals (3 to 10 years) were observed in all future scenarios. Bases 1 and 2 presented the highest number of significant coefficients, according to the F test for (p-value <0.05), the exception was Base 3. The latitude variable (?1) was more significant, followed by altitude (?3 ) In all Bases. Significant values of r2 (> 0.80) and r (> 0.90) in Base 2 and Base 1 with r2 (> 0.50) and r (> 0.70). The adjusted RLM models explained most of the spatial variability of Tmi for the ERJ. The parametric tests of SW and B applied to the monthly rainfall series without treatment and to the reduced variable the normal distribution standardized to 95% of probability point to the hypotheses of non-normality and neither homogeneity of the time series. The high sensitivity of the rainfall series to the B test were observed in the eight Government regions, due to the rigor of the test. The lambda coefficients of the Box Cox transformation applied to the monthly rainfall series for data without treatment and the reduced variable of the standardized normal distribution do not present efficiency in the stabilization of the homogeneity of the variances. Confirmed by the test of B, in 99.58% and 100% of the events. The efficiency found only in the stabilization of normality in 81.33% and 81.58% of the monthly cumulative frequencies of data without treatment and the reduced variable. Moderate performance of SPI methods with untreated and Box Cox versus SPI-transformed data with reduced-box data transformed by Box Cox is evident in SPI-1, which shows the presence of significant variations of statistical parameters in the Norte, Costa Verde, Baixada Litor?nea e Metropolitana shortage, followed by low performance of the r2 coefficient in the ERJ regions. SPI-12 shows a significant high dispersion of the coefficient r, followed by a low to very low performance, and a low coefficient r2. This indicates poor accuracy of SPI index estimates in both methods. The EPE and RMSE errors do not present significant variations, in the durations of 1 and 12 months. A high variation of the rec coefficients with the index d in the SPI-1 month is verified, a poor performance of the methods with data without treatment and with transformed by Box Cox versus SPI with data of the reduced variable transformed by Box Cox, for the SPI-12 Was verified in the ERJ regions. The temporal / annual analyzes of SPI-1 and 12 in the regions show a high variability and greater intensity of SPI-1, unlike SPI-12. SPI-1 and SPI-12 in the regions show similarity in the behavior of SPI-1 and SPI-12, where the highest and lowest frequencies of droughts categorized as moderately, extremely and extremely dry were recorded in the 70, 80, 90, 2000 and in the period 2010/2013, except for the 60. Events of ENOS were observed in the study period. The Pettitt test identified the years of changes in the SPI-12 index, in 1977 (El Ni?o weak), 1984 (La Ni?a weak), 1989 (Neutral), 1992 (Neutral) and 2002 (Moderate El Ni?o). The prevailing category was close to normal in the Norte Fluminense, Baixadas Litor?neas and Costa Verde regions, followed in the other regions of Government in some parts (SW), (SSW) (SE) and (NE). The moderately dry category occurred in the regions, Metropolitana, Centro Sul Fluminense, M?dio Para?ba, Serrana and NoroesteFluminense, and the other parts in the (SW), (NW) and (NNE) portions of the ERJ. In short, the application of statistical, parametric and non-parametric tests, chain of markov, multivariate analysis are efficient tools in the evaluation of natural disasters in the ERJ. / H? poucos estudos baseados nas ?reas de Climatologia F?sica e Estat?stica aplicadas ao estado do Rio de Janeiro (ERJ), voltados para cat?strofes naturais (secas, enchentes e desertifica??o) baseado em dados clim?ticos e produtos orbitais. As s?ries temporais usadas foram de 47 anos (1967 a 2013) e 71 anos (1943 a 2013). oriundas de 100 esta??es pertencentes ? ANA, CPRM, INMET, SERLA e LIGHT. Estas s?ries (dados brutos) apresentavam falhas e foram preenchidas com produto 3B43 do sat?lite TRMM (1998 a 2013) e com as normais climatol?gicas do INMET (1947 a 1997). Para tanto elas foram submetidas ? an?lise descritiva, explorat?ria, testes param?tricos (Shapiro-Wilks-SW e Barlett-B), n?o param?tricos (Mann-Kendall-MK, M?todo de Sen -Se, Pettitt e SOCUM), transforma??o Box Cox e an?lise de agrupamento (AA). Al?m disso, foram usados dados mensais do Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) entre 2001-2012 com objetivo de verificar tend?ncia de aumento e diminui??o da vegeta??o no ERJ pelos testes n?o param?tricos e os cen?rios futuros pela Cadeia de Markov. A estimativa da temperatura m?dia mensal do ar (Tmi) no ERJ, foi baseada em s?ries observadas de rean?lises ou atrav?s da composi??o de ambas e, sendo ajustadas aos modelos de regress?o linear m?ltipla (RLM) e simples (RLS) baseado em tr?s bases: Bases 1 (Rean?lise/NCEP), 2 (INMET/NCDC) e 3 (Rean?lise/NCEP e INMET/NCDC) entre 1948 a 2015. A an?lise descritiva mostrou uma probabilidade de ocorr?ncia acima de 75%, os testes SW e B apresentaram um baixo n?vel de signific?ncia para p-valor (? < 5%) e rejeitou-se a hip?tese de normalidade e homogeneidade de vari?ncias nas esta??es. A transforma??o Box Cox foi eficaz na estabiliza??o da normalidade dos res?duos e homogeneidade de vari?ncia da s?rie temporal de chuva mensal das regi?es M?dio Para?ba e Serrana, com exce??o do Noroeste Fluminense. A alta variabilidade de ? (0,326 a 0,565) ? devido ? maioria das esta??es encontram-se na vertente da Serra do Mar voltada para o continente, onde o regime de chuva ? influenciado pela intera??o da topografia com sistemas locais e sin?ticos e tendo apenas uma esta??o na vertente da Serra do Mar voltada para o Oceano Atl?ntico com influ?ncia do ambiente costeiro e dos sistemas de mesoescala e sin?ticos, na s?rie de 71 anos. Com base na AA foram escolhidas 11 esta??es com normalidade ou homogeneidade de vari?ncia, caracterizando dois grupos homog?neos pluviom?tricos (G1 e G2) no ERJ. Para a an?lise de tend?ncia, o teste MK e m?todo Se mostraram a presen?a de tend?ncias n?o significativas de aumento das chuvas nas escalas anual e sazonal, enquanto que o Pettitt e o SOCUM foram eficientes quanto ? identifica??o dos anos de poss?veis mudan?as abruptas n?o significativas ou insignificantes na s?rie temporal de 71 anos. O teste de SOCUM identificou 39 eventos de ENOS nos grupos G1 e G2, os maiores percentuais nos eventos neutros (48,72%) e os menores nos El Ni?o moderado e La Ni?a fraca e forte (5,13%). Outro resultado encotrado foi a exist?ncia de uma tend?ncia insignificante de crescimento da vegeta??o em 75%, seguido de uma tend?ncia significativa de diminui??o em 25% das regi?es pol?ticas do ERJ. J? o teste de Pettitt mostrou a exist?ncia de mudan?as bruscas n?o significativas (NS), ambos de crescimento e diminui??o da vegeta??o em 6 regi?es e significativas (S) de diminui??o em 2 regi?es. Os progn?sticos de mudan?as com varia??o de 1 a 2 anos em intervalos constante (3 a 10 anos) foram observados em todos os cen?rios futuros. As Bases 1 e 2 apresentaram o maior n?mero de coeficientes significativos, segundo O teste F para p-valor < 0,05, com exce??o para a Base 3. A vari?vel latitude (?1) foi mais significativa, seguido da altitude (?3) em todas as Bases. Foram encontrados valores significativos de r2 (>0,80) e r (> 0,90) na Base 2 e na Base 1 com r2 (>0,50) e r (>0,70). Os modelos de RLM ajustados explicaram a maior parte da variabilidade espacial da Tmi para o ERJ, enquanto que os testes param?tricos de SW e B aplicados a s?rie temporal mensal de chuva sem tratamento e ? vari?vel reduzida a distribui??o normal padronizada a 95% de probabilidade apontaram para as hip?teses de n?o-normalidade e n?o-homogeneidade da s?rie temporal. A alta sensibilidade da s?rie temporal de chuva ao teste B foram constatada nas oito regi?es pol?ticas do ERJ, devido ao rigor do teste. Os coeficientes de lambda da transforma??o Box Cox aplicada ?s s?ries temporais mensais de chuva para dados sem tratamento e a vari?vel reduzida da distribui??o normal padronizada n?o apresentam efici?ncia na estabiliza??o da homogeneidade das vari?ncias. Confirmado pelo teste de B, em 99,58% e 100% dos eventos repetitivamente. A efici?ncia constatada apena na estabiliza??o da normalidade em 81,33% e 81,58% das frequ?ncias acumuladas mensais dos dados sem tratamento e da vari?vel reduzida. Al?m disso observa-se que o desempenho moderado dos m?todos do SPI com dados sem tratamento e com os transformados pela Box Cox versus SPI com dados da vari?vel reduzida transformada pela Box Cox fica evidente no SPI-1, que mostra a presen?a de varia??es significativas dos par?metros estat?sticos nas regi?es Norte, Costa Verde, Baixada Litor?nea e Metropolitana, seguidos de baixo desempenho do coeficiente r2 nas regi?es do ERJ. J? o SPI-12 mostrou uma alta dispers?o significativa do coeficiente r, seguido de um desempenho baixo a muito baixo, e baixos valores do coeficiente r2, indicando fraca precis?o das estimativas dos ?ndices SPI em ambos os m?todos. Os erros EPE e RMSE n?o apresentaram varia??es significativas, nas dura??es de 1 e 12 meses. Contudo costatase uma alta varia??o dos coeficientes r e c com o ?ndice d no SPI-1 m?s, ressaltasse que um p?ssimo desempenho dos m?todos com dados sem tratamento e com transformados pela Box Cox versus SPI com dados da vari?vel reduzida transformada pela Box Cox, para o SPI-12 foi verificado nas regi?es do ERJ. Al?m disso, as an?lises temporal/anual dos SPI-1 e 12 nas regi?es mostra alta variabilidade e maior intensidade do SPI-1, ao contr?rio do SPI-12. No tocante a an?lise temporal dos SPI?1 e SPI?12 nas regi?es do ERJ verifica-se similaridade quanto ao comportamento dos SPI?1 e SPI?12, onde as maiores e menores frequ?ncias de eventos de secas categorizadas como moderadamente, muito e extremamente seco foram registradas nas d?cadas 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 e no per?odo 2010/2013, com exce??o da d?cada de 1960. Eventos de ENOS foram observados no per?odo de estudo. O teste de Pettitt identificaram os anos de mudan?as do ?ndice SPI-12, em 1977 (El Ni?o fraco), 1984 (La Ni?a fraca), 1989 (Neutro), 1992 (Neutro) e 2002 (El Ni?o moderado). Prevaleceu a categoria pr?ximo ao normal nas regi?es Norte Fluminense, Baixadas Litor?neas e Costa Verde, seguido nas demais regi?es de Governo em algumas por??es (SW), (SSW) (SE) e (NE). A categoria moderadamente seca ocorreu nas regi?es, Metropolitana, Centro Sul Fluminense, M?dio Para?ba, Serrana e Noroeste Fluminense enas demais nas por??es (SW), (NW) e (NNE) do ERJ. Em suma, a aplica??o dos testes estat?sticos, param?tricos e n?o-param?tricos, cadeia de markov, an?lise multivariada s?o ferramentas eficientes na avalia??o das cat?strofes naturais no ERJ.

A heterogeneidade dos elementos que compreendem a climatologia tropical se evidencia no comportamento das chuvas nessa região macroclimática. Para tanto, compreender seu comportamento temporal e espacial assume grande relevância, em função do impacto dessas na dinâmica urbana e rural, bem como para seu planejamento estratégico. Verificar seu curso interanual em episódios diários é grande desafio, nesse sentido. Com isso, o estudo objetivou analisar as chuvas diárias na região de São Carlos/SP, a fim de compreender sua evolução temporal e espacial, além de avaliar possíveis tendências para essa, que se insere na dinâmica tropical (sazonalmente chuvoso/estiagem). Foram analisados 39 anos de dados diários de chuvas, em 7 postos pluviométricos, e que estiveram com, ao menos, 95% dos dados consistentes. Utilizou-se de índices climáticos (script RClimdex) e do Laplace trend factor para analisar os dados temporais históricos e de tendência. Observou-se que os valores dos índices flutuam entre as estações, mas que esses estão associados aos fenômenos da ZCAS (Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul) e dos SFs (Sistemas Frontais), que regem o clima no sudeste da América do Sul. Além disso, notou-se que o sul da área estudada apresenta maior concentração pluviométrica, em função dos aspectos geomorfológicos (e até de ocupação), bem como notou-se o aumento de episódios extremos de chuvas diárias. As chuvas diárias, portanto, tendem a concentração, uma vez que os volumes anuais diminuem ou aumentam (ciclicamente), mas notam-se precipitações pluviométricas mais intensas (mm) em dias chuvosos, além do aumento da tendência dos dias com chuvas extremas. Futuros estudos que ampliem a área de estudo e possíveis correlações poder-se-ão reafirmar tais resultados, conforme verificado em estudos prévios. / Rainfall shows the heterogeneity of tropical climatology. Temporal and spatial behavior is highly relevant to verify the impact on urban and rural dynamics and strategic planning. The inter-annual course in daily episodes is the biggest challenge in that regard. The objective of this study was to analyze daily rainfall in the São Carlos/SP region, understand its temporal and spatial evolution, as well as to evaluate possible trends for this, which are part of tropical (seasonally rainy/dry) dynamics. A total of 39 years of daily rainfall data were analyzed in 7 pluviometric stations, with at least 95% of the data consistent using Climatic indexes (RClimdex script), and the Laplace trend factor to analyze temporal and trend data. It was observed that the values of the indexes fluctuate between the stations. These are associated with the phenomena of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and SFs (Frontal Systems), which regulates the climate in the south-east of South America. Also, the south of the studied area presents a higher rainfall concentration, due to the geomorphological (and even occupation) aspects, as well as the increase of extreme episodes of daily rains. Therefore, daily rains tend to concentrate, since annual volumes decrease or increase (cyclically), but the rainfall (mm) is more intense on rainy days, in addition to the increase in the tendency of the days with extreme rains. Future studies that broaden the area of study and possible correlations may reaffirm such results, as verified in previous studies.

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels and storm surges are observed along some areas of the British Columbia coast to be correlated with known climatic variability (CV) phenomena, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Since a shift to a positive PDO regime in 1977, the effect of ENSO events have been more frequent, persistent, and intense. Teleconnected impacts include more frequent storms, higher surges, and greater coastal erosion. Geomorphic recovery of regional beach-dune systems from erosive events is usually rapid (i.e., within a year) by way of high onshore sand transport and aeolian delivery to the upper beach and dunes. At Wickaninnish Bay on the west coast of Vancouver Island, fast progradation rates (to +1.46 m a-1) have been observed in recent decades, in part due to rapid regional tectonic uplift and a resulting fall in relative sea level of ~ -0.9 mm a-1. The Wickaninnish foredune complex has rapidly extended alongshore in response to a net northward littoral drift and onshore sediment delivery. Bar deposition and welding processes supply sediment to the foredune complex via aeolian processes, and as a result, this is forcing Sandhill Creek northward toward the prograding (+0.71 m a-1) Combers Beach system, in part maintaining active erosion (-1.24 m a-1) of a bluff system landward of the channel. Bluff erosion generates substantial sediment volumes (-0.137 m3 m-2 a-1) that feed a large intertidal braided channel and delta system as the creek purges into the Pacific Ocean. As a first step in exploring the interactions between ocean-atmosphere forcing and beach-dune responses on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, the proposed thesis: 1) Examines and assembles the historic erosive water level regime and attempts to draw links to observed high magnitude storm events that have occurred in the Tofino-Ucluelet region (Wickaninnish Bay); and 2) Explores the geomorphic response of local shorelines by examining the geomorphology and historical evolution of a foredune-riverine-backshore bluff complex. Despite rapid shoreline progradation, foredune erosion occurs locally with a recurrence interval of ~1.53 yrs. followed by rapid rebuilding, often in the presence of large woody debris and rapidly colonizing vegetation, which drives a longer-term trend of shoreline progradation. This process is complicated locally, however, by the influence of local geological control (bedrock headlands) and backshore rivers, such as Sandhill Creek, which alter spatial-temporal patterns of both intertidal and supratidal erosion and deposition. This work is necessary to understand mechanisms responsible for erosive water levels and the process interaction responsible for subsequent coastal rebuilding following erosive periods. / Graduate / 0368 / derek.heathfield@gmail.com

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi investigar a relação linear existente entre a Temperatura de Superfície do Mar (TSM) dos oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico e a vazão do rio Madeira, localizado na parte sul da região Norte do Brasil. A investigação foi feita nas escalas mensal, sazonal e anual, para o período de 1968 a 2009. A hipótese de que alterações climáticas na região Norte do Brasil estariam associadas a episódios de aquecimento e resfriamento dos oceanos globais, já que quando ocorrem têm o potencial de modificar o padrão de precipitação em áreas remotas do globo, foi a motivação central da pesquisa. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida com base em análises estatísticas para os dados de TSM, índices climáticos e a vazão do rio Madeira. Observou-se que a vazão mensal do rio Madeira apresenta correlação linear significativa com áreas específicas dos oceanos Atlântico e Pacífico. No Oceano Atlântico Norte, são significativas as correlações obtidas nos setores tropical (área AT3) e norte (área AT1). O setor subtropical do Atlântico Norte (AT2) apresenta correlações lineares não tão expressivas como suas áreas tropical e norte. O Atlântico Sul não apresenta áreas com correlações lineares significativas com a vazão. As áreas com correlação significativa do Atlântico Norte (AT1) apresentam valores negativos máximos entre -0,6 e -0,4. Os valores de correlação linear entre a vazão mensal do rio Madeira e a TSM do Atlântico (AT2) apresentam um pequeno aumento para os cálculos realizados com defasagem temporal de até nove meses, entre 0,3 a 0,4 para 5 meses de defasagem entre a vazão e a TSM. A TSM do setor oeste do Pacífico tropical apresenta fortes valores negativos de correlação linear com a vazão do rio Madeira, com valores máximos que variam entre -0,7 e -0,4. Tal qual acontece para o Atlântico, as águas superficiais do Pacífico tropical oeste apresentam um pequeno aumento dos valores de correlação linear para defasagens maiores entre a TSM e a vazão. As áreas com forte correlação negativa no setor oeste do Pacífico tropical foram denominadas PA1, no norte, e PA3, no sul. Uma pequena área com correlação significativa e positiva a leste da bacia do Pacífico, junto à costa do Chile, foi denominada PA2. Nesta área os valores máximos de correlação linear entre a vazão mensal e a TSM variam entre 0,2 e 0,4. A análise de correlação linear entre a vazão anual do rio Madeira e índices climáticos indicam que os índices ODP, MEI e OAN são os mais bem correlacionados com a vazão, apresentando valores iguais a 0,89, 0,86 e 0,85, respectivamente. Com base na TSM das áreas bem correlacionadas com a vazão do rio Madeira e nos índices climáticos considerados, foi desenvolvido um modelo estocástico de regressão linear múltipla para a previsão da vazão trimestral com antecedência de um trimestre. A TSM das áreas do setor oeste do Pacífico tropical, PA1, e do Atlântico Norte tropical, AT3, constituíram as variáveis selecionadas para a elaboração do modelo estocástico. O modelo estocástico foi desenvolvido para o início da série temporal considerada, de 1968 a 1988, e apresentou um ajuste linear com coeficiente de determinação igual a 78%. A verificação do modelo foi feita para o final da série, de 1989 a 2009. O erro médio normalizado calculado pela diferença entre os valores de vazão previstos pelo modelo e os observados foi igual a 40%. Desta forma, conclui-se que a vazão trimestral do setor sul da região Norte do Brasil é uma variável que pode ser prevista com base na variabilidade da temperatura das águas superficiais dos oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico. A análise do comportamento atmosférico com base em períodos específicos de anomalias de TSM no Atlântico Norte tropical indica que a ocorrência de TSMs mais altas (baixas) que o normal foram acompanhadas por ventos de leste mais fracos (fortes). Foram analisados os campos atmosféricos médios para os meses chuvosos de novembro a março para as variáveis Velocidade Vertical (Omega) em 500 e 850 hPa, divergência e vorticidade do vento. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que em média, a variabilidade atmosférica foi determinante no que se refere às anomalias apresentadas pela vazão. / The objective of this research was to investigate the linear relation between the sea surface temperature (SST) over Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the outflow of the Madeira river, located at the southern part of the Northern region of Brazil. The investigation considered monthly, seasonal and annual scales, to the period between 1968 to 2009. The consideration about the influence of heating and cooling of oceanic areas over climate around the world constitutes the main hypothesis taken in account in the study. The research was developed based on statistical analysis considering SST, climatic indexes and river outflow data. The monthly outflow for Madeira River shows significant linear correlation to SST at specific areas over Atlantic and Pacific. Over North Atlantic, the linear correlation values are significant at the tropical and north sectors, namely AT3 and AT1, respectively. The subtropical sector of North Atlantic presents positive correlation but not too expressive as the tropical and north areas of Atlantic. South Atlantic does not present significant values of linear correlation with the river outflow. The area with significant correlation over North Atlantic (AT1) presents maximum negative values ranging between -0,6 and -0,4. In general, the greater the interval between river outflow and SST data, greater is the linear correlation values. SST data from the western sector of tropical Pacific presents strong negative correlation with Madeira River outflow data, and shows maximum values ranging between -0,7 and -0,4. The areas to the West of Pacific showing high negative correlation were named PA1 and PA3, to northern and southern sectors, respectively. A small area that shows significant positive linear correlation to the river outflow data, PA2, is located over the eastern side of Pacific basin, very closed to the coast of Chile. In this area, the linear maximum correlation values range between 0,2 and 0,4. Linear correlation analysis between annual river outflow data and climatic indices indicates that PDO, MEI and NAO are those more correlated with the river outflow data, presenting values equal to 0,89, 0,86 e 0,85, respectively. Based on averaged SST and climatic indices well correlated to the Madeira River outflow data, a stochastic model was developed in order to forecast the river outflow in seasonal scale. SST from west of tropical Pacific, PA1, and from tropical North Atlantic, AT3, were selected to build up the stochastic model. The stochastic model was developed considering the first half of the total series, between 1968 and 1988, while the last period was used to validate the model, between 1989 and 2009. The linear adjusting over the first period reach a determining coefficient equal to 78% and the normalized mean error obtained for the second period was equal to 40%. Thus, we conclude that the seasonal outflow for Madeira River is a climatic variable that can be forecast based on the SST variability over specific areas on Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The analysis of atmospheric behavior based on specific periods of SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic indicates that the occurrence of SSTs higher (lower) than normal was accompanied by easterly winds weak (strong). We analyzed the average atmospheric fields for the rainy months from November to March for variables Vertical Speed (Omega) at 500 and 850 hPa, divergence and vorticity of the wind. The results show that approximately the atmospheric variability was decisive with regard to the deficiencies presented by the ouflow.

L'évaluation de la capacité à satisfaire la demande en eau est cruciale pour répondre aux attentes des gestionnaires, notamment en Méditerranée, une région vulnérable pour ce qui est des ressources en eau disponibles et où la demande en eau n'a cessé de croître. Le bassin de l'Hérault (2500 km2, France) est un exemple type de ces changements puisque les écoulements ont fortement diminué depuis les années 1960. Dans ce contexte, les dynamiques d'évolution de la ressource et de la demande en eau ont été analysées dans le passé. Puis, une chaîne de modélisation intégrative a été mise en œuvre sur les 50 dernières années en associant un modèle hydrologique, un modèle de gestion de barrage et l'évaluation de la demande domestique et agricole sur le bassin à travers une reconstitution historique de la base de données d'usages. Cette chaîne a permis d'estimer l'évolution de la fréquence d'années où la demande n'a pas été pleinement satisfaite dans les différentes portions du bassin. Entre 1961 et 2010, la fréquence d'insatisfaction a diminué dans les portions amont de par une déprise agricole et une amélioration du système d'irrigation. Dans la portion aval où les pressions d'usage sont les plus importantes, la diminution des écoulements et la croissance de la demande en eau ont entraîné une baisse de la capacité à satisfaire la demande. L'utilisation de la chaîne de modélisation à l'horizon 2050 a montré que les impacts de la variabilité climatique et d'usages seraient équivalents, mais affecteraient des portions de bassin distinctes. De plus, si les projections concernant l'augmentation de la température annuelle moyenne (+1,2°C) se confirment, les scénarios de mitigation des usages n'amélioreraient pas la capacité de satisfaction de la demande en eau. / Assessing water supply capacity is crucial to meet with managers' needs, especially in the Mediterranean, one of the most vulnerable regions considering available water resources and where water demand has been increasing. The Hérault River catchment (2,500 km2, France) is a typical example of these issues as runoff strongly decreased since 1960. In this context, dynamics of water resource and demand evolution were analyzed over the past period. Then an integrated framework was developed over the last 50 years, combining a hydrological and a dam management model, water demand estimation for the domestic and agricultural sectors through a historical water use database reconstitution. This framework assessed the frequency evolution of years when water demand could not be fully supplied at the portion scale. From 1961 to 2010, the unsatisfactory year frequency decreased in upstream portions due to farmland abandonment and renovation of irrigation networks. In the downstream portion where human pressures are the highest, the decrease in runoff and increase in water demand led to a fall of water supply capacity. Runs of the modelling framework at the 2050 horizon showed that the impacts of climate variability and water uses could be equivalent, but should affect different portions. Moreover, if mean annual temperature projections (+1.2°C) are confirmed, water demand mitigation scenarios would not be able to improve water supply capacity.

Ninety-eight percent of water taken from the Mississippi River Shallow Alluvial Aquifer, hereafter referred to as “the aquifer” or “MRVA,” is used by the agricultural industry for irrigation. Mississippi Delta agriculture is increasingly using more water from the MRVA and the aquifer has been losing about 300,000 acreeet per year. This research expands on previous work in which a model was developed that simulates the effects of climatic variability, crop acreage changes, and specific irrigation methods on consequent variations in the water volume of the MRVA. This study corrects an identified problem by replacing total growing season precipitation with an irrigation demand driver based on evaporation and crop coefficients and changing the time scale from the entire growing season to a daily resolution. The calculated irrigation demand, as a climatological driver for the model, captures effective precipitation more precisely than the initial growing season precipitation driver. Predictive equations resulting from regression analyses of measured versus calculated irrigation water use showed R2 and correlations of 0.33 and 0.57, 0.77 and 0.88, 0.71 and 0.84, and 0.68 and 0.82 for cotton, corn, soybeans and rice, respectively. Ninetyive percent of the predicted values fall within a range of + or - about 23,000 acreeet, an error of about 10-percent. The study also adds an additional conservation strategy through the use of surface water from onarm reservoirs in lieu of groundwater. Analyses show that climate could provide the entire water need of the plants in 70-percent of the years for corn, 65-percent of the years for soybeans and cotton, and even 5-percent of the years for rice. Storing precipitation in onarm structures is an effective way to reduce reliance of Delta producers on groundwater. If producers adopted, at a minimum, the 97.5:2.5 ratio suggested management practice, this minimal management strategy could potentially conserve 48-percent, 35-percent and 42-percent of groundwater for cotton, corn and soybeans, respectively. Even in extreme drought years such as 2007, cotton, corn and soybeans produced under the 97.5:2.5 management strategy could conserve 32-percent, 46-percent and 38-percent of groundwater, respectively.

This thesis assesses climate change during the Hypsithermal Climatic Interval through the analysis of freshwater mussel remains from archaeological sites in Eastern North America. Modern climate data was used as a model to test the mosaic consequences of climate change. Freshwater mussels: can be used as indicators of precipitation by examining changes in overall size through time: larger mussels are found in larger streams, while smaller mussels are found in smaller streams. This study combines morphometric and isotopic data from archaeological freshwater mussels at Modoc Rock Shelter, Watson Brake, Plum Creek, Owens site, and Landerneau mounds to assess past climatic conditions. At Modoc Rock Shelter, oxygen isotopic data corroborate morphometric data and show that climate was fluctuating with a period of stability at the onset of the Hypsithermal. The oxygen isotopic data sets from the Louisiana sites show that the mid-Holocene was much warmer than the late-Holocene.

Cette thèse apporte un nouvel éclairage au débat sur la dégradation de l'environnement et le développement. Elle analyse les déterminants et les effets macroéconomiques de la dégradation de l'environnement. Elle est subdivisée en deux parties. La première partie analyse les effets de l'éducation et des institutions démocratiques sur la qualité de l'environnement. Le premier chapitre analyse le rôle de l'éducation dans la protection de l'environnement. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que l’effet dépend du niveau de développement. Contrairement à l’échantillon des pays en développement où elle n’a pas effet, l'éducation est source de pollution dans les pays développés. Cependant, cet effet est atténué en présence de bonnes institutions démocratiques. Le deuxième chapitre étudie l'impact des institutions démocratiques sur la qualité de l'environnement. Nous montrons qu´elles ont un effet direct et positif sur la qualité de l'environnement. Celui-Ci est plus élevé pour les polluants locaux que pour les polluants globaux. De plus, ce chapitre identifie des canaux indirects par lesquels l´amélioration de la démocratie dégrade l'environnement. En effet, en favorisant l´adoption de politiques de redistribution des revenus et de politiques économiques, la démocratie a un effet indirect et négatif sur la protection de l'environnement. La deuxième partie propose deux essais sur les effets du changement climatique et des politiques environnementales sur le développement. Le troisième chapitre met en évidence un effet négatif et significatif de la variabilité climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement. Cet effet apparait plus élevé dans les pays africains. Par ailleurs, cet effet est exacerbée dans les pays à conflit et ceux vulnérables aux chocs des prix des biens alimentaires. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l’effet de la similitude des politiques environnementales sur le commerce bilatéral. Contrairement aux études précédentes qui utilisent des indicateurs partiels de réglementation environnementale (indicateurs axés sur les moyens ou sur les résultats), nous construisons on un indicateur de politique environnementale révélé. Les résultats suggèrent que la similitude dans les politiques environnementales n'a pas d'effet sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux. En outre les résultats ne dépendent ni du niveau de développement de pays partenaires ni des caractéristiques des biens exportés (biens manufacturés et biens primaires). / This dissertation is a contribution to the debate on environmental degradation and development. It focuses on the determinants and macroeconomic effects of environmental degradation. It is structured in two parts. The first part analyses the effects of education and democratic institutions on environmental quality. The first chapter analyses the role of education in environmental quality. No evidence of an effect of education on carbon dioxide emissions. However, this effect depends crucially on the sample of countries according to their levels of development. While the effect remains insignificant in developing countries, education does matter for carbon dioxide emissions in developed ones. Moreover, when controlling for the quality of democratic institutions, the positive effect of education on carbon dioxide emissions is mitigated in developed countries while remaining insignificant in developing ones. The second chapter explores the effect of democratic institutions on environmental quality. We evidence that democratic institutions do have a direct and positive effect on environmental quality. This positive effect is stronger for local pollutants than for global ones. More interestingly, it identifies the indirect channels through which democracy affects environmental degradation. Indeed, by increasing people’s preferences for redistribution and economic policies, democratic institutions have indirect and negative effects on environmental protection through income inequality and investments. In the second part, the dissertation provides two essays on the effects of environmental policies and climate change on development. The third chapter investigates the effects of climatic variability on food security. The results show that climatic variability reduces food security in developing countries. The adverse effect is higher for African sub-Saharan countries than for other developing countries. Second, the negative effect of climatic variability on food security is exacerbated in countries facing conditions of conflict and is high for the countries that are vulnerable to food price shocks. The fourth chapter provides new evidence about the effect of a gap in environmental policies between trading partners on trade flow. While previous papers have used partial measures of environmental regulations (input-Oriented or output-Oriented indicators), we compute an index of a country’s environmental policy. Results suggest that a similarity in environmental policies has no effect on bilateral trade flows. Moreover results do not appear to be conditional on the level of development of the countries trading or on the characteristics of exported goods (manufactured goods and primary commodities).