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This study investigates the effects of futures trading on petroleum price variability. Though a number of critics from various quarters claim futures markets have made petroleum prices more volatile, economic reasoning does not support this viewpoint. A review of theoretical studies and empirical investigations of other commodities shows general support for the hypothesis that futures markets do not destabilize prices and may, in fact, add to price stability. In this study, regression analysis is used to explain the price variability of heating oil and gasoline in terms of factors that may affect this variability, including the existence of futures markets. Though the empirical tests performed are biased towards finding destabilizing effects of futures markets, no statistically significant increase in price volatility is found, and in the case of gasoline, indications of stabilizing effects are found. Thus, neither the results of other studies of futures markets nor examination of petroleum futures trading support the critics' contention that futures trading has destabilized petroleum prices. / M.A.

The performance of futures contracts and commodity options as hedging instruments were compared in a cash margin hedging framework for a 150 sow farrow to finish hog operation in southeastern Virginia. The expected cash margin (ECM) using corn soybean meal and hog futures were calculated daily from 1975 through 1982. The performance of options and futures were compared in 530 strategies that ranged from strait routine fixed margin hedging to strategies based on forecasted variable margins. / Master of Science

Prolonged imbalances between feeder cattle costs and the pricing opportunities being offered cause highly variable placements of cattle into feedlots and variability in fed cattle prices. Such variability imposes costs on everyone in the system, from producer to consumer. Cattle feeders are in a position to exert the influence of very current and highly specific information on costs of feeding into trading levels for live cattle and feeder cattle futures. The tax treatment of speculative trades in the cattle futures markets has the potential to block participation of cattle feeders. To the extent that cattle feeders are effectively blocked from trading in futures in any capacity other than trades that meet the IRS "equal and opposite" criterion of a hedge, the correction of market imbalances may be impended. The economic viability of investments in cattle feeding can be influenced in a significant way by those market imbalances. This research examines the interaction of traders in the risk transfer and price discovery process in the live cattle markets. Econometric models over disaggregated data sets were developed to explain expected margin behavior in response to the changes in the positions held by identifiable and specific trader groups. In addition, trader behavior reactions to the levels of the feeding margins offered by the distant live cattle futures were examined. A weekly data series was constructed using the daily records of reporting trader positions in the live cattle futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Feeding margins offered by the futures were calculated using cash prices for feeder cattle and feed fixed at the time of placements of feeder cattle on feed. The analysis was for the 1983-1987 period. The analysis indicates that increases in large, long (short) trading activity were associated with increases (decreases) in the expected margin offered by the futures. More importantly, the behavior of large speculators were found to exert a constraining influence on margin changes and to start the market correction at extreme levels of negative margins. This implies that cattle feeders, trading as large traders, could contribute to correcting the market imbalances if they were allowed to fully participate in the price discovery process. / Master of Science

published_or_final_version / Public Administration / Master / Master of Social Sciences

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research studies the relationship between economic growth and commodity-market volatility in South Africa. The mining industry, largely supported by gold, diamonds, coal, iron ore and platinum-group metals, has played a central role in South Africa's economic development. The commodities that were selected for the study are the five major minerals, namely gold, coal, iron are, platinum-group metals and diamonds. It investigates two central questions, the first of which is whether the mining of the above commodities still makes a significant contribution to the South African economy in terms of employment, revenue and foreign-currency earning. The second is whether there is a link that reflects a statistically and economically significant association between commodity-price volatility and economic growth in South Africa. The economic environment in South Africa has been extremely positive, with a growth averaging around 5% for the period 2004-2006. An important contributing factor to this favourable environment has been the behaviour of mineral commodity prices. Mining makes a direct and indirect contribution of approximately 15% to GOP, accounts for around 50% of merchandise exports (including primary and beneficiated mineral exports), 12% of fixed investment, 30% of the market value of the JSE limited and 20% of formal-sector employment. Therefore, mining remains a key foundation of the South African economy. Time series data analysis confirms that the volatility of the major foreign currency-earning commodities - gold, platinum, coal, diamonds and iron ore - are negatively or weakly related. This relationship actually reflects the harmful effect of the volatility of these commodities on economic growth. Until recently, South Africa was heavily dependent on exports of primary commodities. Since the commodity prices are highly volatile, South Africa has to cope with large shocks, both positive and negative. Commodity cycles used to be determined by the growth cycle in the United States, but more recently, with the emergence of the Asian economies and China, in particular, the dominant influence of the United States economy on the commodity cycle has waned. The continuing instability in commodity prices and export earnings of South Africa has to be addressed by diversifying the exports towards more dynamic products; particularly manufactured goods and services. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika en die mynbedryf, wat hoofsaaklik ondersteun word deur goud, diamante, steenkool, ystererts en die platinumgroepmetale, het 'n sentrale rol in Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese ontwikkeling gespeel. Die kommoditeite wat vir hierdie navorsing gebruik word, is die vyf belangrikste minerale, naamlik goud, steenkool, ystererts, die platinumgroepmetale en diamante. Twee sleutelvraagstukke word hier ondersoek, waarvan die eerste dit bevraagteken of die ontginning van bogenoemde kommoditeite nog steeds 'n belangrike bydrae tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie lewer wat indiensneming, inkomste en buitelandse valuta betref. Tweedens word daar ondersoek of daar enige skakel is wat 'n statistiese en ekonomies betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen kommoditeitsprysonbestendigheid en die ekonomiese groei van Suid-Afrika weerspieel. Die ekonomiese omgewing in Suid-Afrika was besonder positief, met 'n groeikoers van ongeveer 5% gedurende die 2004-2006-tydperk. Die gedrag van mineraalkommoditeitspryse het 'n belangrike bydrae tot die gunstige ekonomiese omgewing gelewer. Mynwese lewer 'n direkte en indirekte bydrae van ongeveer 15% tot die algemene binnelandse produk, is verantwoordelik vir ongeveer 50% van die uitvoer van handelsware (insluitend primere en veredelde mineraaluitvoere), 12% van vaste beleggings, 30% van die markwaarde van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs en 20% van die werksgeleenthede in die formele sektor. Daarom is mynwese 'n sentrale deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie. Die ontleding van tydreeksdata bevestig dat die onbestendigheid van die belangrikste kommoditeite wat buitelandse valuta verdien, naamlik goud, platinum, steenkool, diamante en ystererts, negatief of swak verwant is. Hierdie verwantskap weerspieel eerder die skadelike uitwerking van hierdie kommoditeite se onbestendigheid op ekonomiese groei. Tot onlangs was Suid-Afrika grootliks afhanklik van die uitvoer van primere kommoditeite en die pryse van hierdie kommoditeite is baie onbestendig. Suid-Afrika moes dus groot skokke, positief sowel as negatief, die hoof bied. Die groeisiklus in Amerika het in die verlede die kommoditeitsiklusse bepaal, maar meer onlangs het die Asiatiese ekonomiee en veral China die dominante invloed van ekonomiese Amerika laat afneem. Die voortdurende onstabiliteit in kommoditeitspryse en buitelandse inkomste vir Suid-Afrika moet meer aandag geniet deur uitvoere te diversifiseer na meer dinamiese produkte, veral vervaardigde produkte en dienslewering.

The results from 17 new experiments and 19 previously reported experiments are compared in an investigation of call and continuous auctions. The call auction used is the computerized PLATO sealed bid/offer (SBO), uniform price auction. The continuous auction used is the PLATO double auction (DA), a computerized version of the "open outcry" double auction. The SBO call auction has temporal consolidation of market orders and has limited information about trading activity. The continuous DA auction is characterized by sequential bilateral trades, and trading information (bids, offers, and prices) is publicly displayed. The paper first explores the effect of multiple crossings per trading period in the SBO call auction. Next, a comparison of SBO and DA is made, based on market experiments using flow supply and demand schedules. The institutional comparison is then extended to experimental asset markets. The results imply the following. First, multiple calls per period increase the efficiency of the SBO call auction, relative to one call per period, but they also induce greater misrepresentation of costs and values in the first crossing each period. Buyers and sellers also withhold units from the first crossing in a further attempt to gain strategic advantage. However, neither the withholding nor the misrepresentation appears to have any substantial influence on price. Second, the SBO auction with two calls per period is as efficient as the DA auction. In markets with a random competitive equilibrium (CE) each period, the SBO auction does a better job than DA at tracking the random CE price. Thus the SBO auction is equally as efficient as the DA, and has the further attributes of lower price volatility and greater privacy. Third, in laboratory asset markets, the SBO auction exhibits price bubbles similar to those observed in DA markets. Price dynamics in the two institutions are comparable, despite the stark differences in order flow and information dissemination.

Dissertation (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Commodity issues have assumed renewed importance in debates about the attainment of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals for Sub-Saharan Africa and objectives of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development. For instance thirty-four countries in Africa depend on up to three commodities for more than half of their foreign exchange earnings. Despite the importance of commodity markets to economic development on the continent commodity-related research has not attracted the needed attention. The study considered eighteen primary commodities exported by most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The commodities were drawn from metals, agricultural raw materials, food and energy sub-groups. This dissertation presents results of research work underlying six stand-alone essays focusing on the relationship between commodities and various aspects of economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst three of the six essays dwelt on issues affecting commodities of interest to most African countries the others considered particular commodity markets in a selected number of countries. First the relationship between commodity markets and economic growth is studied. The second essay examined trends and volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa’s key commodity prices over the past four decades. Role of commodity prices in macroeconomic policy in South Africa is also investigated using a new research approach. The fourth essay estimated the supply response of a number of tradable and non-tradable agricultural commodities in Ghana. In the fifth essay a range of volatility forecasting models were evaluated using eighteen commodity spot prices. The last essay examined the interaction between changes in commodity prices, money supply, inflation and the real exchange rate in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. The findings of the study indicate that a negative relationship exist between extent of primary commodity dependence and economic growth. The study also revealed that volatility levels have not changed for nine out of the eighteen commodities studied however, changes were observed in the other nine. Another key finding of the study was that there is merit in using gold and metal prices as variables in forming monetary policy in South Africa. It was also observed that random walk and autoregressive models consistently outperform more complex models in forecasting volatility in commodity spot prices. Results of the supply response study suggest that even though producers usually respond to price incentives, structural features of domestic agricultural commodity markets in Ghana may have hindered the conversion of improved incentives to higher agricultural growth. Results of the last paper indicate that in Ghana commodity price increases impact money supply growth and inflation whilst in Nigeria the effects of crude oil price increases produces higher inflation and appreciation of the real exchange. In the case of South Africa effects of gold export booms were transmitted through changes in money supply, inflation and real appreciation of the domestic currency. The results of the study have implications for both decision makers in business and government. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Kommoditeits-aangeleenthede het vernuwe belangrikheid in die debat rakende die vervulling van die Verenigde Nasises se Millennium Onwikkelings Doelwitte vir Sub-Sahara Afrika en die doelwitte van die Nuwe Vennootskap vir Afrika se Ontwikkeling aangeneem. By voorbeeld, vier-en-dertig Afrika lande is afhanklik van tussen een en drie kommoditeite vir meer as die helte van hul buitelandse valuta inkomste. Ten spyte van die belangrikheid van kommoditeits-markte vir ekonomiese ontwikkeling op die kontinent het kommoditeits-verwante navorsing nog nie die nodige aandag gekry nie. Die studie het agtien primêre uitvoer-kommoditeite wat deur die meeste Sub-Sahara Afrika lande uitgevoer word oorweeg. Die kommoditeite is afkomstig van metale, onverwerkte landbou produkte, voedsel en energie sub-groepe. Hierdie tesis bied die resultate van navorsing wat gedoen is op ses afsonderlike opstelle wat fokus op die verhouding tussen kommoditeite en verskeie aspekte wat die ekonomiese vertoning in Sub-Sahara Afrika beïnvloed. Drie van die ses opstelle fokus op faktore wat kommoditeite van belang vir meeste Afrika lande affekteer, terwyl die ander geselekteerde lande se unieke kommoditeits-markte oorweeg word. Die eerste opstel bestudeer die verhouding tussen kommoditeits-markte en ekonomiese groei. Die tweede opstel oorweeg tendense en volitaliteit in Sub-Sahara Afrika se belangrikste kommoditeits-pryse oor die afgelope vier dekades. Die rol van kommoditeits-pryse in Suid-Afrika se makro-ekonomiese beleid word ook ondersoek met behulp van 'n nuwe navorsings benadering. Die vierde opstel maak 'n skatting van Ghana se aanbod van verskeie verhandelbare en nie-verhandelbare landbou kommoditeite. In die vyfde opstel word 'n reeks volitaliteitsvoorspellings-modelle ge-evalueer deur agtien lokopryse te gebruik. Die laaste opstel bestudeer die interaksie tussen veranderinge in kommoditeits-pryse, geld aanbod, inflasie en die reële wisselkoers in Ghana, Nigerië en Suid-Afrika. Bevindinge van die studie dui daarop dat 'n negatiewe verhouding tussen die graad van primêre kommoditeits-afhanklikheid en ekonomiese groei voorkom. Die studie het ook bevind dat volitaliteits–vlakke vir nege van die agtien kommoditeite wat bestudeer is nie verander het nie, terwyl veranderinge in die ander nege waargeneem is. 'n Kritiese bevinding was dat daar meriete steek in die gebruik van goud en ander metal pryse as veranderlikes in die formulering van die monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika. Dit is ook waargeneem dat “random walk” en autoregressiewe modelle deurlopend beter vaar in die voorspelling volitaliteit in kommoditeits lokopryse as komplekse modelle. Resultate van die aanbod respons studie dui daarop dat alhoewel produseerders gewoontlik reageer op prys insentiewe, struktule eienskappe van die binnelandse landbou kommoditeits-mark in Ghana moontlik die effek van verbeterde insentiewe op landbou groei kon beperk het. Resultate van die laaste opstel dui daarop dat kommoditeits-prys verhogings in Ghana die geld-aanbod groei en inflasie beinvloed, terwyl in Nigerië die effekte van ru-olie prys verhogings lei tot hoër inflasie en appresiasie van die reële wisselkoers. In die geval van Suid-Afrika word die effekte van die skielike groot toenames in goud-uitvoere die duidelikste waargeneem deur veranderinge in die geld-aanbod, inflasie en die reële appresiasie van die binnelandse geld-eenheid. Die resultate van die studie het implikasies vir beide besluitnemers in besigheide en die regering.

published_or_final_version / Law / Master / Master of Laws

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os elementos que influenciaram a transformação do modo de conhecer do ser social ao longo da história. Partimos da indicação de Marx e Engels, acerca da relação entre a consciência e o mundo material, em que afirmam que é o ser social que determina a consciência. Sendo o ser social determinado pelas atividades práticas que realiza, e sendo a práxis produtiva a atividade fundamental de produção e reprodução da vida material, delimitamos nosso objeto a dois elementos: a divisão do trabalho e a troca mercantil. Nossa hipótese se expressa por meio de uma metáfora: antes o conhecimento era um espelho inteiro, porém embaçado. Depois, ele se torna um espelho quebrado, porém com cada pedaço mais nítido. Argumentaremos que a divisão do trabalho “quebra o espelho” transformando o conhecimento de totalidade (espelho inteiro) em unilateralidade (espelho quebrado em vários pedaços). E a troca mercantil “limpa o espelho” transformando o conhecimento que antes era superficial (embaçado) em um conhecimento mais profundo (límpido), por meio da relação entre abstração real e abstração do pensamento. Concluímos que a divisão do trabalho e a troca mercantil transformaram o modo de conhecer de algo mais empírico para algo mais abstrato. / The objective of this study is to analyze the factors that influenced the transformation of the social being mode of knowing throughout history. We start from the statement of Marx and Engels on the relationship between consciousness and the material world, affirming that it is the social being that determines consciousness. If the social being is determined by the practical activities, and if the productive practice is the fundamental activity of production and reproduction of material life, we delimit our object to two elements: the division of labor and commodity exchange. Our hypothesis is expressed through a metaphor: before the knowledge was a full mirror, but blurry. Then it becomes a broken mirror, but with each piece clearer. We will argue that the division of labor "break the mirror" transforming the totality of knowledge (full mirror) in one-sidedness (mirror broken into several pieces). And the commodity exchange "clean the mirror" transforming knowledge that was superficial (blurry) on a deeper knowledge (clear), through the relationship between real abstraction and abstraction of thought. We conclude that the division of labor and commodity exchange turned the mode of knowing something more empirical to something more abstract.