The affinity between the work of the Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek and the approach of Complexity Economics is widely recognized by the literature. In spite of this, there still is a lack of studies that seek to analyze in depth the relationship between Hayek and complexity. This dissertation is a contribution to the filling of this large gap in the literature. In the first part of the work, we analyze the various periods in the development of Hayek\'s vision of complexity, showing that this vision is strongly present in his works on knowledge, competition, methodology, evolution, and spontaneous order. In the second part, we explore how Hayek was influenced by two of the main precursors of modern complexity theory - cybernetics and general system theory - from the time he was working on his book on theoretical psychology, The Sensory Order (1952), until the end of his intellectual career. / A afinidade entre a obra do economista austríaco Friedrich A. Hayek e a abordagem da Economia e Complexidade é amplamente reconhecida pela literatura. Apesar disso, ainda há grande carência de estudos que busquem analisar de forma aprofundada a relação entre Hayek e a complexidade. Esta dissertação é uma contribuição para o preenchimento dessa grande lacuna na literatura. Na primeira parte do trabalho, os diversos períodos no desenvolvimento da visão de complexidade de Hayek são analisados, evidenciando-se como tal visão está fortemente presente em seus trabalhos sobre conhecimento, competição, metodologia, evolução e ordem espontânea. Na segunda parte, exploramos como Hayek foi influenciado por dois dos principais precursores da moderna teoria da complexidade - a cibernética e a teoria geral do sistema - desde o período em que estava trabalhando no seu livro sobre psicologia teórica, The Sensory Order (1952), até o final de sua carreira intelectual.

The affinity between the work of the Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek and the approach of Complexity Economics is widely recognized by the literature. In spite of this, there still is a lack of studies that seek to analyze in depth the relationship between Hayek and complexity. This dissertation is a contribution to the filling of this large gap in the literature. In the first part of the work, we analyze the various periods in the development of Hayek\'s vision of complexity, showing that this vision is strongly present in his works on knowledge, competition, methodology, evolution, and spontaneous order. In the second part, we explore how Hayek was influenced by two of the main precursors of modern complexity theory - cybernetics and general system theory - from the time he was working on his book on theoretical psychology, The Sensory Order (1952), until the end of his intellectual career. / A afinidade entre a obra do economista austríaco Friedrich A. Hayek e a abordagem da Economia e Complexidade é amplamente reconhecida pela literatura. Apesar disso, ainda há grande carência de estudos que busquem analisar de forma aprofundada a relação entre Hayek e a complexidade. Esta dissertação é uma contribuição para o preenchimento dessa grande lacuna na literatura. Na primeira parte do trabalho, os diversos períodos no desenvolvimento da visão de complexidade de Hayek são analisados, evidenciando-se como tal visão está fortemente presente em seus trabalhos sobre conhecimento, competição, metodologia, evolução e ordem espontânea. Na segunda parte, exploramos como Hayek foi influenciado por dois dos principais precursores da moderna teoria da complexidade - a cibernética e a teoria geral do sistema - desde o período em que estava trabalhando no seu livro sobre psicologia teórica, The Sensory Order (1952), até o final de sua carreira intelectual.

Assessing the short-term socio-economic impacts of climate-led disasters on food trade networks requires new bottom-up models and vulnerability metrics rooted in complexity theory. Indeed, such shocks could generate cascading socio-economic losses across the networks layers where emerging agents¿ responses could trigger tipping points. We contribute to address this research gap by developing a multi-layer behavioral network methodology composed of multiple spatially-explicit layers populated by heterogeneous interacting agents. Then, by introducing a new multi-layer risk measure called vulnerability rank, or VRank, we quantify the stress in the aftermath of a shock. Our approach allows us to analyze both the supply- and the demand-side dimensions of the shock by quantifying short-term behavioral responses, the transmission channels across the layers, the conditions for reaching tipping points, and the feedback on macroeconomic indicators. By simulating a stylized two-layer supply-side production and demand-side household network model we find that, (i) socio-economic vulnerability to climate-led disasters is cyclical, (ii) the distribution of shocks depends critically on the network structure, and on the speed of supply-side and demand-side responses. Our results suggest that such a multi-layer framework could provide a comprehensive picture of how climate-led shocks cascade and how indirect losses can be measured. This is crucial to inform effective post-disaster policies aimed to build food trade network resilience to climate-led shocks, in particular in more agriculture-dependent bread-basket regions. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

abstract: This thesis consists of three projects employing complexity economics methods to explore firm dynamics. The first is the Firm Ecosystem Model, which addresses the institutional conditions of capital access and entrenched competitive advantage. Larger firms will be more competitive than smaller firms due to efficiencies of scale, but the persistence of larger firms is also supported institutionally through mechanisms such as tax policy, capital access mechanisms and industry-favorable legislation. At the same time, evidence suggests that small firms innovate more than larger firms, and an aggressive firm-as-value perspective incentivizes early investment in new firms in an attempt to capture that value. The Ecological Firm Model explores the effects of the differences in innovation and investment patterns and persistence rates between large and small firms. The second project is the Structural Inertia Model, which is intended to build theory around why larger firms may be less successful in capturing new marketshare than smaller firms, as well as to advance fitness landscape methods. The model explores the possibility that firms with larger scopes may be less effective in mitigating the costs of cooperation because conditions may arise that cause intrafirm conflicts. The model is implemented on structured fitness landscapes derived using the maximal order of interaction (NM) formulation and described using local optima networks (LONs), thus integrating these novel techniques. Finally, firm dynamics can serve as a proxy for the ease at which people can voluntarily enter into the legal cooperative agreements that constitute firms. The third project, the Emergent Firm model, is an exploration of how this dynamic of voluntary association may be affected by differing capital institutions, and explores the macroeconomic implications of the economies that emerge out of the various resulting firm populations. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Applied Mathematics for the Life and Social Sciences 2018

Die Dynamik des Erdsystems im Anthropozän wird durch eine zunehmende Verschränkung von Prozessen auf physikalischer und ökologischer sowie auf sozioökonomischer Ebene bestimmt. Wenn Modelle als Entscheidungshilfen in diesem Umfeld nützlich sein sollen, müssen sie diese komplexen Rückkopplungen ebenso berücksichtigen wie die inhärent emergenten und heterogenen Qualitäten gesellschaftlicher Dynamik. Diese Arbeit schlägt vor, den Menschen als begrenzten rationalen Entscheidungsträger zu modellieren, die (soziales) Lernen nutzen, um Entscheidungsheuristiken zu erwerben, die in einer gegebenen Umgebung gut funktionieren. Dies wird in einem Wirtschaftsmodell mit zwei Sektoren veranschaulicht, in dem ein Sektor eine fossile Ressource für die wirtschaftliche Produktion verwendet und die Haushalte ihre Investitionsentscheidungen in der zuvor beschriebenen Weise treffen. In der Modellökonomie können individuelle Entscheidungsfindung und soziale Dynamik die CO 2 Emissionen nicht auf ein Niveau begrenzen, das eine globale Erwärmung über 1,5◦C verhindert. Eine Kombination aus kollektivem Handeln und koordinierter öffentlicher Politik allerdings kann. Eine Folgestudie analysiert das soziale Lernen der individuellen Sparquoten in einer Ein-Sektor-Wirtschaft. Hier nähert sich die aggregierte Sparquote der eines intertemporär optimierenden allwissenden Sozialen Planers an, wenn die soziale Interaktionsrate ausreichend niedrig ist. Gleichzeitig führt eine abnehmende Interaktionsrate einem plötzlichen Übergangs von einer unimodalen zu einer stark bimodalen Verteilung des Vermögens unter den Haushalten. Schließlich schlägt diese Arbeit eine Kombination verschiedener Methoden vor, die zur Ableitung analytischer Näherungen für solche vernetzten heterogenen Agentenmodelle verwendet werden können, bei denen Interaktionen zwischen Agenten sowohl auf individueller als auch auf aggregierter Ebene auftreten. / The trajectory of the Earth system in the Anthropocene is governed by an increasing entanglement of processes on a physical and ecological as well as on a socio-economic level. If models are to be useful as decision support tools in this environment, they ought acknowledge these complex feedback loops as well as the inherently emergent and heterogeneous qualities of societal dynamics. This thesis improves the capability of social-ecological and socio-economic models to picture emergent social phenomena and uses and extends techniques from dynamical systems theory and statistical physics for their analysis. It proposes to model humans as bounded rational decision makers that use (social) learning to acquire decision heuristics that function well in a given environment. This is illustrated in a two sector economic model in which one sector uses a fossil resource for economic production and households make their investment decisions in the previously described way. In the model economy individual decision making and social dynamics can not limit CO 2 emissions to a level that prevents global warming above 1.5 ◦ C. However, a combination of collective action and coordinated public policy actually can. A follow up study analyzes social learning of individual savings rates in a one sector investment economy. Here, the aggregate savings rate in the economy approaches that of an intertemporarily optimizing omniscient social planner if the social interaction rate is sufficiently low. Sumultaneously, a decreasing interaction rate leads to emergent inequality in the model in the form of a sudden transition from a unimodal to a strongly bimodal distribution of wealth among households. Finally, this thesis proposes a combination of different moment closure techniques that can be used to derive analytic approximations for such networked heterogeneous agent models where interactions between agents occur on an individual as well as on an aggregated level.