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全文一冊，共五章，前四章各二小節，後一章不分節，約二萬字。 內容大致為，不完整樣本的適應檢定中，若在ARMITAGE-COX模型下，可求出生存函數 的最概估計量，本文討論在一般的情形下的PRODUCT-LIMIT 估計量以及ARMITAGE-COX 模型下的最概估計量，它們在指數分配的CORRELATION 適合度檢定及NEW BETTER THA N USED檢定的表現，並以模擬作數值上的討論。 本文第一章入整體的簡單介紹，第二章介紹不完整樣本的模型，第三章適合度檢定， 第四章指出數值模擬的結果及分析，第五章結論。

本研究主要以Cox 迴歸模型為主軸，以1995年7月1日至1999年5月7日公務人員退撫基金成員:公務人員及教育人員為研究對象，分析影響基金成員各項脫退的個別變數，並量化所擇取之變數的影響，以估計各個基金成員的脫退率。同時針對現有基金成員，評估退撫基金短期現金支出並分析之。實證結果發現：藉由Cox迴歸模型之分析可知，相異的脫退因素，被不同的迴歸變數所影響著，且各個變數對各項脫退的影響程度亦存在著差異。短期現金支出的評估結果顯示，各項給付支出，以退休給付的支出佔最大的比例，次為資遣、死亡及離職給付。而人數比例較少的教育人員，其脫退給付支出金額，高於公務人員之給付支出。 略 / Cox regression model is proposed in this study to investigate the demographic factors (i.e., gender, age, seniority, salary scale and the entry date) that influence the turnover pattern of the plan members. This research has focused on the government employees and public school teachers in Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System (Tai-PERS). Quantitative analyses on turnover are performed through monitoring and selecting the significant factors in Cox regression model. Finally based on the current members in Tai-PERS, the short-term cash outflow is projected. Based on the empirical results, different causes of turnover (i.e., death, withdrawal, layoff and retirernent) are influenced by the selected factors. Significant differences have been found within the various causes of decrements. Result from the short-term cash outflow shows that the payment due to retirement has the largest proportion. Then follows the payment amount due to payoff, death and withdrawal if we rank them in order. In additions, the total payments of the public school teachers are larger than those of the government employees, while the plan members of the public school teachers are comparatively less.