臺灣公務人員退休撫卹基金（退撫基金）自1995年成立，由退撫基金管理委員會統一管理，按政府別、身分別，分戶設帳，分別以收支平衡為原則，但依據2003年退撫基金第2次精算結果(美世顧問公司)，軍職人員自2013年、教育人員2032年及公務人員2035年起，將陸續產生累積虧損（破產），主要原因為退休制度本身結構問題、提撥率不足所致，其次為經營績效無法大幅提升，原因為管理組織屬性欠彈性、專業人才不足、管理法令束縛及資產配置較保守，對於現有制度與管理之缺失，如何檢討改善，以提高收益，確保基金之永續發展，為本研究之重點。 本研究採用制度分析比較，藉由退撫基金與先進國家退休金計畫與管理制度加以比較，瞭解臺灣與其他國家退休管理制度上之差異，並探討未來世界退休制度管理趨勢。並蒐集勞工保險基金、勞工退休基金及公教保險準備金等基金相關資料，再與退撫基金作管理運用之比較研究，另外，與退撫基金同質型國外退休基金管理模式之相關研究文獻，作分析比較研究，依投資組合模型計算出最適資產配置，以瞭解退撫基金經營管理之效率性。 / 茲據研究結果發現，退撫基金管理係屬行政機構，管理較無彈性，另外退休撫卹制度設計而產生龐大潛藏負債，以及管理法令限制而影響營運績效。最後，針對研究結果提出對退撫基金管理之建議。就管理機構建議改為行政法人或提高委外比例。對退撫制度之潛藏負債問題建議為：逐步修改退撫制度，先實施退休所得合理化、展期年金，對於新進公務人員採用個人帳戶制，並依個人風險偏好，選擇不同的管理模式。對於管理制度建議為增加國外投資、資本利得比例、擴大投資範圍及建立資訊公開制度。 / The Public Service Pension Fund (PSPF) of Republic of China was established in 1995. On the principle of collection/payment balance, the Management Board of Public Service Pension Fund (MBPSPF) is in charge of management of the PSPF by setting up different independent accounts in accordance with the capacities and governmental levels. The outcome of actuarial evaluation conducted in the year 2003 forecasted the accumulated net loss (insolvency) will respectively happen to the military personnel in the beginning year of 2013, the educational workers in the beginning year of 2032 and the public servants in the beginning year of 3035. The factors will result in the accumulated net loss (insolvency) mainly include incomplete framework of the public service pension system and insufficient contribution rate. Due to inelastic organization and framework, shortage of professional personnel, constraint of the laws and regulations and conservative strategies of assets allocation, overall performance can not be improved substantially is also the minor factor that will result in the accumulated net loss. The key point of this study will focus on eliminating the defects of the present system and administration and making improvement to increase overall earnings, thus continuing operation of the PSPF can be ensured. / This study adopts a measure of system analysis and comparison. In comparing with pension project and administration system of mainly advanced countries, the difference between Taiwan and other advanced countries cab be realized. Thus we can further discuss and explore the future global trend of pension administration. Besides mention above, the related information of Labor Insurance Fund, Labor Pension Fund, and the insurance reserve of public servants and education workers was collected, studied, and compared with the PSPF. Furthermore, the PSPF was compared with abroad pension funds which have same attributes of PSPF by analyzing the related studies of administration or operation. And accordingly, an optimal model of assets allocation was designed for further testing and understanding the efficiency of administration of the PSPF. From this research, the followings were discovered: 1. An administrative institution such as the PSPF with no corporation register, make administration inelastic. 2. The designed system of the “Contributory Pension Fund” will result in potential enormous debts. 3. The constraint of laws and regulations will result in ineffective overall performance. Finally, regarding to the inelastic administration (as of description 1), an ideal proposal is to register the PSPF as a corporation or increase proportion of overseas discretionary management. As to the potential enormous debts (as of description 2), the proposals are to improve the system of “Contributory Pension Fund” step by step, adopt a fair and reasonable retirement income, extend the time limit of annuity, adopt an individual account for a new public servant and manage the account in accordance with his or her risk attitude. As to the ineffective overall performance (as of description 3), the proposals are to increase the proportion of overseas investment and capital gains, extend the range of investment and establish system of information disclosure.

退撫基金成立之目的主要為解決經費來源以減輕政府財政負擔，而退撫基金運作迄今已逾十年，退撫基金管理運用機構因受組織屬性、功能及人力之限，經營績效無法大幅提昇，因基金規模不斷成長，參加基金人數及支領定期給與之退休人數亦快速增加，面對日增之業務量，似有必要針對基金管理機構組織屬性、功能及人力配置等重新審視檢討。 鑑於基金運作之良窳，對於退撫基金支付能力具有關鍵性的影響，且涉及全國軍公教人員及各級政府退撫經費之負擔，因此，基金管理機構是否有適當之組織結構，能否採行企業化經營以靈活妥善運用基金，以及如何因應現有制度與管理上之缺失，創造高收益率以穩固退撫財源，均為本研究之重點。時值政府為提升國家整體競爭力，積極推動更具彈性與企業精神之「行政法人」，本研究乃分別就德國、英國、日本公法人制度，以及世界主要國家退休基金管理現況進行文獻探討，再針對我國退撫基金管理及運用現況進行檢視分析，復對基金管理會現職員工以問卷調查其對機關改制為行政法人之態度，並輔以深度訪談及SWOT分析等方法，以探究我國退撫基金管理機構行政法人化之可行性。 茲據研究結果發現，基金管理機構因受組織屬性、功能及人力之限，退撫基金管理無法獨立運作，致影響經營績效之提昇，其業務性質確具專業性，應頗適合行政法人化，惟因尚有潛藏負債、最後支付責任、行政法人法草案尚未建置完成以及現實上之政治生態等諸多考量，故建議其如擬行政法人化，應先明確區分政府及行政法人之潛藏負債及最後支付責任，並宜配合退休制度一同考量。 / The purpose of establishing Public Service Pension Fund （PSPF）mainly focuses on reducing the financial burden of the government. However, after more than ten years of operation, the performance of the pension fund still cannot significantly improve due to the limitation of attributes, functions and human resources of organization. This, together with the adjustment of contribution rates to reflect the normal costs, has received universal condemnation and worries about how to improve the operation of the fund in order to relieve the pressure of raising contribution rates. Due to the gradual increase of workloads caused by the continued growth of fund scale, fund participants and the number of retirees receiving regularly payments, it seems to be necessary to inspect and review the attributes, functions and human resources of the fund management agency. As the quality of the fund operation has crucial effects to the payment ability of the PSPF, and the expenditure burden of all fund participants and different levels of local governments, whether the fund management agency has proper organization structure, whether it is suitable to adopt the craft industry, and how to cope with the drawbacks of present system and management are the main points of this research. While the government is actively boosting “administrative corporation”, which is more flexible and possesses business spirit, with the aim of promoting integral competitiveness of the government, this research first literarily discusses public corporation system of Germany, Britain and Japan, and the current management state of main countries in the world. This is followed by an analysis of current management and operation state of the PSPF, and questionnaires filled by the employees of the Management Board of PSPF to understand their opinions on changing to administrative corporation. The analysis is reinforced by a deep interview, SWOT analysis and so on to investigate the feasibility of administrative corporation system for the management agency of PSPF.. This research finds out that being unable to operate independently, due to the limitations of organization attributes, functions and human resources, the PSPF’s management performance has been negatively influenced. Judging from agency functions, “administrative corporation” can be a suitable system for the organization. However, with considerations like inclined liabilities, final disbursement duty, and the Administrative Corporation Act still pending for legislative approval, it is suggested that a clear distinction between the inclined liabilities and final disbursement duty of the government and the administrative corporation has to be made, together with a consideration of the retirement system, before the “administrative corporation” system is put into real practice.

公務人員退撫基金雖非一般企業，但這並不表示公務人員退撫基金可以不必對「資金提供者」負責或懈怠獲致「應有報酬」之責任；公務人員退撫基金為執行特定公共任務之組織，其能否發揮制度設計所預期的功能，將直接影響公務人員退撫基金的營運績效。本研究之主要目的為探討治理變數對基金績效的影響效果。實證結果發現監理委員會的組成結構中，唯有軍公教、學者專家的係數估計值顯著異於零，其他的治理變數對基金績效的影響皆不具有顯著影響效果，另外，股價指數與資產配置對於基金績效存在顯著的作用，股價指數以及資產配置在銀行存款與短期票券，具有正的影響效果，至於配置在有價證券，可能由於受到政治的干預護盤以及對於股票市場的投資監督不佳，所以造成其負向影響效果。 由於治理變數大多對基金績效無顯著影響效果，可能肇因於退撫基金無健全的課責制度，可以考慮減少政府機關代表的數量與其角色，考量委員的代表性與專業性。此外，股市投資為影響報酬與風險最為顯著的投資工具，股價指數與有價證券的資產配置皆對基金績效有顯著的影響效果，對於股票市場的投資需要更加的小心。由於退撫基金由政府管理，欠缺彈性，其投資運用易受到官僚體系與政治因素的影響，未來退撫基金也可以朝行政法人組織來做改革。隨著基金累積金額的日漸龐大，監理委員會功能的發揮與否，與投資運用績效息息相關，將攸關未來退休者的給付與參與者的費率，如何有效發揮監理委員會的功能，是值得關注的議題。

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隨著退休人口不斷的增加，加以政府的財政困難，各國無不加速年金改革的腳步，希望能建立一個財務永續、世代公平，且滿足社會保障需求的年金制度。臺灣的退休金制度長期以來處於提撥率遠低於精算平衡費率的狀態，加上不斷增長的潛藏負債，使得退休金制度將面臨破產的考驗。本研究針對公教人員退撫基金進行財務分析探討，發現對目前正在繳納的年輕世代，若不積極採取適當的年金改革方案，終將成為了繳多卻領少，或甚至領不到的一群人，未來可能缺乏老年經濟安全的保障，造成世代不均，形成嚴重的社會問題。 理想的退休金制度應該同時兼顧老有所養的目的與世代的公平，倘若不斷降低給付支出以達到財務平衡，對於民眾的老年經濟卻造成嚴重的威脅，也不是恰當的方案。研究結果顯示，改革的幅度若是太小，年輕世代(30歲)退休金的金錢價值比約為1；而年長世代(60歲)則約為2.5。而若是將改革的幅度提高，則年輕世代金錢價值比為1.05；而年長世代則約為2.4，均得出確實存在世代公平性的問題。因此，將年輕世代的退休金制度漸進地轉換成確定提撥制(DC)或許是更為理想的改革方式；而採用確定給付制的人，透過政府挹注、減少相當的給付或持續提撥保費，讓世代間透過包容、互助的精神，使得年金改革的路程能夠更正確更為有效，促成社會祥和，才能讓臺灣的年金制度永久的走下去。 / Because of the increased retirement population and the government's financial difficulties, all countries will accelerate the pace of annuity reform. Hoping to establish a financial sustainability, fair pension system and meet the social security needs of the annuity system. In this study, we discuss the financial analysis of the public Service Pension Fund and find that the young generation will become a group of people who receive less pensions. If we do not take the appropriate annuity reform plan, the pension fund will not provide economic security in the old age. The ideal pension plan should have the function of taking care the elderly and the intergenerational equity. If we continue to reduce the pension payment in order to achieve financial balance, the elderly economy will be threated seriously. It’s not a good and appropriate reform. The research results show that if the magnitude of the reform is too small, the money’s worth ratio of the young generation (30 years) pension is about 1; and the older generation (60 years) is about 2.5. And if the magnitude of reform is increased, the money’s worth ratio of the young generation is 1.05; and the older generation is about 2.4. All have the problem of the intergenerational equity. Thus, the pension plan of young generation changes into the defined contribution plan slowly. It may be a more ideal reform. And the people who use defined benefit plan have to reduce the payments, continue to pay premium into pension fund and the government provides the subsidies. So that the generations through the spirit of mutual assistance, it will make the journey of annuity reform can be more effective.

為使台灣公部門能利用確定提撥的概念及妥善運用投資資源，以期在減少政府負擔的情況下獲得足夠的退休所得，故本研究以所得替代率、金錢價值比及平均數-變異數比等指標來針對公務人員退撫基金附加節約儲蓄制度採行之可能與投資策略彼此運用之模擬結果加以分析，結果如下： 1. 各情境下以BH策略所得出之期末個人帳戶平均累積值表現最佳，然其具相當大的波動變異程度，投資人需承受相當大的風險。而TIPP策略之表現則與前述完全相反。 2. 若投資者採用BH策略或是採用CPPI與TIPP策略(CM策略)且欲追求較高的所得替代率，則建議採用Lifecycle(平衡型)的投資比例配置方式，加計DB制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約70.204%-75.204% (65.49%-70.49%)的所得替代率，而金錢價值比則為2.399(2.95)。 3. 無論投資者採用何種策略進行投資，若欲追求最小的可能變異風險，則建議採取平衡型的投資比例配置方式，加計確定給付制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%)的所得替代率，金錢價值比則為2.6835。 本文模擬結果所得出之所得替代率平均維持於70%上下，代表若政府將可藉此制度減輕政府負擔外亦可使員工擁有一定水平的退休生活，故可採用。至於投資策略與配置方式如何取捨須依不同的投資者而定。 　 關鍵詞：公務人員退撫基金、確定提撥制、所得替代率、金錢價值比、Lifecycle / Abstract Because the improvement of medical technology and the structure of population is aging. It makes human worry about the living in the future. In order to enable the public servants of Taiwan to utilize the system of the Defined Contribution and to relief the pressure of fiscal, so we simulate in this article and analysis the results of simulation by using replacement rate, money’s worth ratio, and mean-variance ratio. The result is as follows: 1.When investor adopt the BH strategy in the process of investment, it will create the best replacement rate and money’s worth ratio under every situation, but it can be anticipated more uncertainty. Investors need to think thrice before they act. The TIPP strategy is opposite. 2.If investors adopt BH strategy or CPPI and TIPP strategy (CM strategy) and wanting to pursue the substituting rate of the higher income , the best selection is proposed adopting the Lifecycle (balanced) scenario, and it can offer replacement ratio about 70.204% - 75.204% (65.49% - 70.49% ) for the man (the woman ) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.399 (2.95). 3. If the investors want to pursue the least influence in the process of investment whatever investors adopt which strategies, the best scenario is the balanced type, and it can offer replacement ratio about 67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%) for the man (the woman) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.6835. The outcome of the simulation in this article is keep the replacement rate maintain about 70% equally, What is the best selection for investor that must be contingent upon different characteristics of investors. Keywords: public servants, Defined Contribution, Replacement rate, The money’s worth ratio, Lifecycle hypothesis.

本研究主要以Cox 迴歸模型為主軸，以1995年7月1日至1999年5月7日公務人員退撫基金成員:公務人員及教育人員為研究對象，分析影響基金成員各項脫退的個別變數，並量化所擇取之變數的影響，以估計各個基金成員的脫退率。同時針對現有基金成員，評估退撫基金短期現金支出並分析之。實證結果發現：藉由Cox迴歸模型之分析可知，相異的脫退因素，被不同的迴歸變數所影響著，且各個變數對各項脫退的影響程度亦存在著差異。短期現金支出的評估結果顯示，各項給付支出，以退休給付的支出佔最大的比例，次為資遣、死亡及離職給付。而人數比例較少的教育人員，其脫退給付支出金額，高於公務人員之給付支出。 略 / Cox regression model is proposed in this study to investigate the demographic factors (i.e., gender, age, seniority, salary scale and the entry date) that influence the turnover pattern of the plan members. This research has focused on the government employees and public school teachers in Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System (Tai-PERS). Quantitative analyses on turnover are performed through monitoring and selecting the significant factors in Cox regression model. Finally based on the current members in Tai-PERS, the short-term cash outflow is projected. Based on the empirical results, different causes of turnover (i.e., death, withdrawal, layoff and retirernent) are influenced by the selected factors. Significant differences have been found within the various causes of decrements. Result from the short-term cash outflow shows that the payment due to retirement has the largest proportion. Then follows the payment amount due to payoff, death and withdrawal if we rank them in order. In additions, the total payments of the public school teachers are larger than those of the government employees, while the plan members of the public school teachers are comparatively less.

為照顧勞工退休後之生活，我國設有勞工退休金制度，要求雇主按月提撥一定比例之勞工退休準備金，以作為將來勞工退休時給付之用。此由雇主按月提撥之準備金匯集而成者，即為勞工退休基金。勞工退休基金所肩負之任務，乃勞工退休金之「保值」與「增值」，以確保勞工之退休生活。然而，目前管理、運用勞工退休基金之主管機關，乃行政院勞工委員會下設之勞工退休基金監理委員會，為一任務編組，其所有之業務皆由勞委會各處、室之人員兼任。因此，其專業性有所不足；此外，其易受政府政策影響，故獨立性亦有所不足。凡此種種，實皆為影響勞工退休基金經營績效之重要因素。  晚近，新制定通過之勞工退休金條例，已於民國九十四年七月一日正式施行。其將立法前事業單位提撥準備金帳戶之方式，改為勞工個人退休金專戶之方式；並將先前「確定給付制」改為現行之「確定提撥制」。如此，則退休基金管理、運作之良否，將直接攸關全國數百萬勞工之退休權益，其影響不可謂不大。因此，如何確保基金之適正管理與運用，並同時兼顧安全性與收益性，即為將來勞退基金監理會組織設計上首要之點。目前提出於立法院審議中的勞工退休基金監理會設置條例草案，計有行政院提出的行政法人版本，以及立法委員提出的行政機關等版本。然經本文分析之結果，認為行政法人之組織型態，應為較值得考慮之選項。  是以，本論文關注之重心遂集中於，如果將上開勞工退休基金監理會之組織型態，改為行政法人之型態的話，是否即可達到排除上述退休基金經營與管理上之障礙，而確保基金之適正管理與運用，並同時兼顧安全性與收益性之目標？事實上，將某些行政部門法人化，並不等於將產生行政業務或事務減量及提高效率之結果。問題不在法人化本身，而係在於法人組織、財務及營運等內容設計。而目前行政院版勞工退休基金監理會設置條例草案（民國九十四年三月三十一日行政院會通過；同年九月二十三日交付立法院法制、財政、衛環委員會聯席審查）其內容設計，是否能適切地達到改制行政法人化之目的；抑或其只是新瓶裝舊酒，了無新意？亦為本文所斟酌、考量者。本論文透過對我國行政法人制度之理解與分析為基礎，進而對勞工退休基金監理會行政法人化之方向，以及設置條例草案之規定，提出個人之研究發現與建議。希冀能對將來勞工退休基金之管理、運作，提供、創造一個更有利之條件與環境。