隨著醫療技術進步及生活水準的提高，使得人類平均壽命延長，人口結構有逐漸高齡化的趨勢，促使人們開始關切未來老年生活的財源。因此，本研究以金錢價值比率及所得替代率，來建構退休金所得規劃模型，探討在台灣各種不同的退休金制度及商業年金保險下，個人所擁有的金錢價值及所得替代率到底為何？利用過去25年的實證資料，採用66年到90年的各項實證資料，以模擬分析的方式，分析退休金制度及商業年金保險之現金流量，求算其金錢價值比率及所得替代率，並與澳洲、加拿大等國家的年金商品金錢價值比率，及退休金所得替代率相比較，分析造成其中差異的因素。 　　研究結果發現：(1)台灣退休金制度之金錢價值比率遠高於商業年金保險之比率；(2)在商業年金保險中，男性的金錢價值比率比女性的金錢價值比率高；(3)附加費用的多寡，使得即期年金之金錢價值比率高於遞延年金之比率約10%左右；(4)國內外的大多數年金商品金錢價值比率，大約都在90%到98%之間，表示其附加費用率大致相同；(5)在台灣退休金制度中，公務人員擁有較充足的退休金，而勞工退休金卻遠遠的不足；且相較於其他國家的退休金所得替代率，台灣除了公務人員退撫基金較為充足外，勞工退休金及社會福利支出方面是相當不夠的。 / Owing to the improvement of medical technology and living standard, the average life of human is extending and the structure of population is aging. It makes people to worry about the financial soundness of future life. This paper has following two objectives. First, we construct a evaluation model of pension value by using money's worth ratio and replacement rate. Second, we compare the money's worth ratio and replacement rates of different pension plans and annuities between different individuals. We use the empirical data from 1977 to 2001 in Taiwan for this study. We calculate the money's worth ratio and replacement rate of different pension plans and annuities and analyze the cash flow of them by using the simulated method. We also compare the money's worth ratio of annuities and replacement rate of pension plans between Taiwan, and the other countries, such as Australia, and Canada, and analyze the reasons causing these differences. 　　The empirical results are as follow. First, the money's worth ratio of pension plan is higher than that of the commercial annuity in Taiwan. Second, in commercial annuity, the money's worth ratio of male is higher than that of the female. Third, the money's worth ratio of immediate annuity is higher than that of the deferred annuity about 10% because of the expense loading. Fourth, the money's worth ratio of domestic or overseas annuities is between 90% and 98%. It means the loadings of them are not much difference. Fifth, the public officers have sufficient pension annuity, whereas the laborers have insufficient pension annuity. Finally, from the comparison of replacement rates of between Taiwan and other countries, we find that replacement rate of laborers in both private pension and public pension are insufficient except for the public officers.

隨著退休人口不斷的增加，加以政府的財政困難，各國無不加速年金改革的腳步，希望能建立一個財務永續、世代公平，且滿足社會保障需求的年金制度。臺灣的退休金制度長期以來處於提撥率遠低於精算平衡費率的狀態，加上不斷增長的潛藏負債，使得退休金制度將面臨破產的考驗。本研究針對公教人員退撫基金進行財務分析探討，發現對目前正在繳納的年輕世代，若不積極採取適當的年金改革方案，終將成為了繳多卻領少，或甚至領不到的一群人，未來可能缺乏老年經濟安全的保障，造成世代不均，形成嚴重的社會問題。 理想的退休金制度應該同時兼顧老有所養的目的與世代的公平，倘若不斷降低給付支出以達到財務平衡，對於民眾的老年經濟卻造成嚴重的威脅，也不是恰當的方案。研究結果顯示，改革的幅度若是太小，年輕世代(30歲)退休金的金錢價值比約為1；而年長世代(60歲)則約為2.5。而若是將改革的幅度提高，則年輕世代金錢價值比為1.05；而年長世代則約為2.4，均得出確實存在世代公平性的問題。因此，將年輕世代的退休金制度漸進地轉換成確定提撥制(DC)或許是更為理想的改革方式；而採用確定給付制的人，透過政府挹注、減少相當的給付或持續提撥保費，讓世代間透過包容、互助的精神，使得年金改革的路程能夠更正確更為有效，促成社會祥和，才能讓臺灣的年金制度永久的走下去。 / Because of the increased retirement population and the government's financial difficulties, all countries will accelerate the pace of annuity reform. Hoping to establish a financial sustainability, fair pension system and meet the social security needs of the annuity system. In this study, we discuss the financial analysis of the public Service Pension Fund and find that the young generation will become a group of people who receive less pensions. If we do not take the appropriate annuity reform plan, the pension fund will not provide economic security in the old age. The ideal pension plan should have the function of taking care the elderly and the intergenerational equity. If we continue to reduce the pension payment in order to achieve financial balance, the elderly economy will be threated seriously. It’s not a good and appropriate reform. The research results show that if the magnitude of the reform is too small, the money’s worth ratio of the young generation (30 years) pension is about 1; and the older generation (60 years) is about 2.5. And if the magnitude of reform is increased, the money’s worth ratio of the young generation is 1.05; and the older generation is about 2.4. All have the problem of the intergenerational equity. Thus, the pension plan of young generation changes into the defined contribution plan slowly. It may be a more ideal reform. And the people who use defined benefit plan have to reduce the payments, continue to pay premium into pension fund and the government provides the subsidies. So that the generations through the spirit of mutual assistance, it will make the journey of annuity reform can be more effective.

為使台灣公部門能利用確定提撥的概念及妥善運用投資資源，以期在減少政府負擔的情況下獲得足夠的退休所得，故本研究以所得替代率、金錢價值比及平均數-變異數比等指標來針對公務人員退撫基金附加節約儲蓄制度採行之可能與投資策略彼此運用之模擬結果加以分析，結果如下： 1. 各情境下以BH策略所得出之期末個人帳戶平均累積值表現最佳，然其具相當大的波動變異程度，投資人需承受相當大的風險。而TIPP策略之表現則與前述完全相反。 2. 若投資者採用BH策略或是採用CPPI與TIPP策略(CM策略)且欲追求較高的所得替代率，則建議採用Lifecycle(平衡型)的投資比例配置方式，加計DB制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約70.204%-75.204% (65.49%-70.49%)的所得替代率，而金錢價值比則為2.399(2.95)。 3. 無論投資者採用何種策略進行投資，若欲追求最小的可能變異風險，則建議採取平衡型的投資比例配置方式，加計確定給付制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%)的所得替代率，金錢價值比則為2.6835。 本文模擬結果所得出之所得替代率平均維持於70%上下，代表若政府將可藉此制度減輕政府負擔外亦可使員工擁有一定水平的退休生活，故可採用。至於投資策略與配置方式如何取捨須依不同的投資者而定。 　 關鍵詞：公務人員退撫基金、確定提撥制、所得替代率、金錢價值比、Lifecycle / Abstract Because the improvement of medical technology and the structure of population is aging. It makes human worry about the living in the future. In order to enable the public servants of Taiwan to utilize the system of the Defined Contribution and to relief the pressure of fiscal, so we simulate in this article and analysis the results of simulation by using replacement rate, money’s worth ratio, and mean-variance ratio. The result is as follows: 1.When investor adopt the BH strategy in the process of investment, it will create the best replacement rate and money’s worth ratio under every situation, but it can be anticipated more uncertainty. Investors need to think thrice before they act. The TIPP strategy is opposite. 2.If investors adopt BH strategy or CPPI and TIPP strategy (CM strategy) and wanting to pursue the substituting rate of the higher income , the best selection is proposed adopting the Lifecycle (balanced) scenario, and it can offer replacement ratio about 70.204% - 75.204% (65.49% - 70.49% ) for the man (the woman ) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.399 (2.95). 3. If the investors want to pursue the least influence in the process of investment whatever investors adopt which strategies, the best scenario is the balanced type, and it can offer replacement ratio about 67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%) for the man (the woman) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.6835. The outcome of the simulation in this article is keep the replacement rate maintain about 70% equally, What is the best selection for investor that must be contingent upon different characteristics of investors. Keywords: public servants, Defined Contribution, Replacement rate, The money’s worth ratio, Lifecycle hypothesis.