過去國外的實證研究結果指出，反向房屋抵押貸款確實可為老年屋主帶來顯著的所得提高效果，而本文主要探討台灣地區擁有自用住宅單身老人的生活型態，並藉由對房價的估計值，計算出老年屋主若利用反向房屋抵押貸款商品後預估可獲得的所得水準，以衡量反向房屋抵押貸款能為台灣的退休屋主帶來多少經濟上的挹注。研究結果顯示，反向房屋抵押貸款對獨居的老年屋主之所得替代率，平均提升效果約為40%至140%，確實能有效改善擁有自用住宅的老年人在退休期間的財務狀況。進一步比較不同世代，結果發現對40年代出生的退休屋主而言，藉由反向房屋抵押貸款來提升退休後的所得，其效果較其他世代的屋主更為顯著。 / The results of past empirical research indicate that the reverse mortgage can indeed bring a significant increase in income for elderly homeowners. This study mainly explored the lifestyle of the single elderly in Taiwan who had the house for own use, and used the estimates of house prices to calculate the estimated income level that the elderly homeowners would be at when they had purchased reverse mortgage products to measure how much economic benefit that the reverse mortgage could bring for the retired homeowners in Taiwan. The research results showed that the reverse mortgage had increased the income-replacement ratio by 40-140% averagely for the elderly homeowners living alone, effectively improving the financial situation of the elderly that had the house for own use during their retirement years. Further, the different generations were also compared, and the results found that using the reverse mortgage to increase the income at retirement showed a better effectiveness on those retired homeowners born in the 1940s than the homeowners of other generations.

公務人員新退休制度自84年7月1日施行至今已屆滿10年有餘，對於公務人員退休撫恤的保障雖已獲致初步成效，但政府卻面臨日漸沉重的財務負擔。有關公務人員退休所得替代率的問題，在與國內勞退新制下本國勞工及國外公務人員退休所得替代率比較後有明顯偏高的現象，經考試院決議採取甲案並將替代率上限訂為95％。評析公務人員退休所得替代率偏高的原因，在於公保養老給付享有年利率18％優惠存款利息所致，在採行新制後，據銓敘部統計共有八萬多的公務人員受到影響。本研究以模擬分析的方式，評估公務人員擔任主管職務及非主管職務人員退休所得替代率，在新、舊制度下所產生的利息收入差異，並分析其中原因。 / 研究得到以下幾點結論:(1)公務人員退休所得因納入公保養老給付優惠存款利息，導致所得替代率介於80%~131%之間，確實有偏高的現象；(2)改革方案中，擔任主管職務退休人員所須扣除的優存利息幅度，職等越高者幅度越小，甚至有13職等以上擔任主管人員的優存利息是完全不需扣除的現象；(3) 擔任非主管職務退休人員所扣除的公保優存利息幅度高於擔任主管職務退休人員，其中又以中階非主管職務人員扣除最多；(4) 造成此種現象，主因在於公務人員薪資結構上的問題。公務人員在職月薪包含本俸、專業加給及擔任主管人員的主管職務加給，其中高階主管的主管職務加給加上專業加給幾乎等同於本俸，甚至有超過本俸的現象。如此在計算所得替代率時，自然會產生較小的值，而領取較多的公保優存利息。

本文主要在探討確定提撥退休金計劃下，投資決策對所得替代率之影響，以提供員工退休規劃及政府政策擬定之參考。首先，我們建構退休金累積模型及所得替代率模型，其中所得替代率之計算是以含通貨膨脹率因子的年金方式給付退休金。然後，將影響退休金累積模型的精算因子：累積期間的投資報酬率，依據過去的月資料配適出其母體分配，以模擬員工未來退休時，使用年金方式給付退休金的所得替代率。本文進一步，提供員工在不同投資報酬下應相對提撥多少百分比，以達到適當的所得替代率水準的參考標準，以滿足員工未來退休時的生活所需。我們以民國87年「勞工退休金條例草案」及台灣投資市場的實証資料進行研究，本研究結果如右：當僱主提撥6%月薪資時，(一)若員工可選擇投資標的，女性、男性員工所得替代率分均值分別介於48%~70%、52%~75%，而且選擇高度風險基金之所得替代率平均值皆較低度風險基金高出45 %，但為了使所得替代率小於60%的機率低於10%，女性、男性員工選擇高度風險基金需較低度風險基金分別多提撥3 %、2 %。(二)若退休基金由勞委會統籌管理，以過去實証平均報酬率8%，計算女性、男性員工所得替代率分別為50%、54%，但為達到60%所得替代率，女性、男性員工需分別相對提撥2%、1%。(三)比較「員工可選擇投資標的」與「勞委會統籌分配管理」兩種退休基金管理方式，若員工可選擇投資標的亦有最低保証收益，結果發現員工可選擇投資標的之投資績效及所得替代率皆優於勞委會統籌分配管理。 / The thesis investigates the impacts of the employee’s investment decision making on income replacement rate for defined contribution plan. We first construct the pension accumulation model to compute the final retirement benefit under defined contribution plan. Furthermore, the empirical data of the investment returns from mutual fund market and that from Labor Insurance Bureau are utilized to simulate the possible investment returns distribution for employee before retirement. The replacement rate is then calculated by assuming the employee will use his/her final retirement benefit to buy a single premium annuity with inflation index adjustment from the insurance company. Finally, based on simulation results from different scenarios, we suggest a relative employee contribution rate in order for employee to reach his/her objective replacement rate under different risk aversion levels. Our results show: 1. If the employee can make investment decision by investing in the mutual fund market, in average, female employee can have 48~70% replacement rate, while male employee can have 52~75%. We also find the replacement rate for employee selecting the high-risk mutual fund is 45% higher than those for selecting the low-risk mutual fund. 2. If the employee can not make investment decision and Labor Insurance Bureau allocate the pension asset, female employee can have 50% replacement rate, while male employee can have 54%. 3. Comparing the above two alternatives under the assumption that the employee has minimum guarantee return in both case, we find the first option can generate higher replacement rate for employee.

隨著醫療技術進步及生活水準的提高，使得人類平均壽命延長，人口結構有逐漸高齡化的趨勢，促使人們開始關切未來老年生活的財源。因此，本研究以金錢價值比率及所得替代率，來建構退休金所得規劃模型，探討在台灣各種不同的退休金制度及商業年金保險下，個人所擁有的金錢價值及所得替代率到底為何？利用過去25年的實證資料，採用66年到90年的各項實證資料，以模擬分析的方式，分析退休金制度及商業年金保險之現金流量，求算其金錢價值比率及所得替代率，並與澳洲、加拿大等國家的年金商品金錢價值比率，及退休金所得替代率相比較，分析造成其中差異的因素。 　　研究結果發現：(1)台灣退休金制度之金錢價值比率遠高於商業年金保險之比率；(2)在商業年金保險中，男性的金錢價值比率比女性的金錢價值比率高；(3)附加費用的多寡，使得即期年金之金錢價值比率高於遞延年金之比率約10%左右；(4)國內外的大多數年金商品金錢價值比率，大約都在90%到98%之間，表示其附加費用率大致相同；(5)在台灣退休金制度中，公務人員擁有較充足的退休金，而勞工退休金卻遠遠的不足；且相較於其他國家的退休金所得替代率，台灣除了公務人員退撫基金較為充足外，勞工退休金及社會福利支出方面是相當不夠的。 / Owing to the improvement of medical technology and living standard, the average life of human is extending and the structure of population is aging. It makes people to worry about the financial soundness of future life. This paper has following two objectives. First, we construct a evaluation model of pension value by using money's worth ratio and replacement rate. Second, we compare the money's worth ratio and replacement rates of different pension plans and annuities between different individuals. We use the empirical data from 1977 to 2001 in Taiwan for this study. We calculate the money's worth ratio and replacement rate of different pension plans and annuities and analyze the cash flow of them by using the simulated method. We also compare the money's worth ratio of annuities and replacement rate of pension plans between Taiwan, and the other countries, such as Australia, and Canada, and analyze the reasons causing these differences. 　　The empirical results are as follow. First, the money's worth ratio of pension plan is higher than that of the commercial annuity in Taiwan. Second, in commercial annuity, the money's worth ratio of male is higher than that of the female. Third, the money's worth ratio of immediate annuity is higher than that of the deferred annuity about 10% because of the expense loading. Fourth, the money's worth ratio of domestic or overseas annuities is between 90% and 98%. It means the loadings of them are not much difference. Fifth, the public officers have sufficient pension annuity, whereas the laborers have insufficient pension annuity. Finally, from the comparison of replacement rates of between Taiwan and other countries, we find that replacement rate of laborers in both private pension and public pension are insufficient except for the public officers.

依據國際研究機構之預測，人口老化與少子化是本(21)世紀人類最重大的挑戰，我國在近年生育率下滑的情況下，社會人口老化問題尤其嚴重。本研究基於關切現行社會保險制度與退休金準備，能否支應個人在未來老年時期之醫護照顧與經濟負擔等議題，先敘述國人將面臨日趨嚴重之長壽風險，再引述美國、香港運用兼具財產隔離與專業服務基本功能的信託制度經營管理退休金市場的成功模式，導論政府與企業建立退休金管理制度、個人及早儲備退休金之重要性，希冀喚起國人對儲備個人退休金帳戶準備之重視。 本研究架構共分一、緒論；二、基礎理論與文獻探討，涵蓋信託制度、退休金信託計畫與資金運用、國外退休制度探討等；三、我國信託制度退休商品之運用；四、台灣勞工族群退休需求與不足度分析；五、信託制度退休商品之實務運作個案探討；六、結論與建議共六章。藉由闡述信託制度的特質、功能，與退休金於累積期間資金運用、清償期資金規劃之基礎理論；引申先進國家退休金制度以信託制度結合退休金計畫的成熟實施經驗，本研究以三個實際個案研究，分析我國勞工族群之退休需求與不足度；並就勞工族群潛在之退休金財務缺口所提出之相關建議。 在探討個案之退休需求與不足度分析部分，研究之限制有二：一為計算模組係以目前實施之退休金制度為基礎，並假設一單純之通貨膨脹率與排除社會經濟可能之變動因素，如未考慮政府可能進行社會保險政策變革因素。二為在計算過程中，投資報酬率之假設係依照過往之投資報酬率推估，並採用資產單一投資報酬率之方式計算分析，未能符合現實狀況中，資產投資組合有其各自之風險係數與不同之報酬率情形。 本研究報告除提出結論外，並提出以下建議： 一、勞工消費大眾在目前之社會保險、企業退休金給付制度無法完全滿足退休需求下，個人應及早另行儲備退休金。 二、企業雇主照顧員工、留住優秀人才，可採行額外之勞工退休福利制度。 三、主管機關可就退休金稅賦優惠措施、勞保、新舊制勞退三大退休基金經營管理方式適度調整及勞退新制開放勞工自選投資標的等。 / It has been foreseen by international research institutions that both problems, the aging of population and the trend towards fewer children, are the most significant challenges which the mankind is facing in the 21st century. In Taiwan, the trend of decreasing birth rate, as shown in recent years, indicates that the aging of population is particularly severe in Taiwan. Based on concerns about whether the present social insurance system and the pension provision are sufficient to meet personal retiring needs such as health care and living expenditure and so on, the research begins with the narration of the rising longevity risk faced by people in Taiwan, then illustrating the successful mode set up by the US and Hong Kong that utilizes the trust system incorporating both the property isolation and the basic professional services to operate and manage the pension market, and eventually concludes that it is of significance for both the government and the enterprise to establish the pension management system as well as for the individual to prepare for the retiring funds as early as possible, looking forward to drawing high attention to the importance of provision for personal pension account. This research is constructed in six parts, Part I: Introduction; Part II: Basic Theory and Literature Review, covering trust system, pension trust plan and funds utilization, foreign retirement system review and so on; Part III: Application of Retirement Products in Taiwan’s Trust System; Part IV: Analysis of Taiwan’s Labor Group’s Retiring Demand and Insufficiency of Funds; Part V: Case Study on Practical Operation for Retirement Products in Taiwan’s Trust System; Part VI: Conclusion and Suggestion. By means of elaborating trust system's characteristic and function and the basic theories on both utilization of pension in the accumulation period and funds planning in the disbursement period, and further introducing the advanced countries’ sound experience in integrating the trust system with the pension schemes, the research, by three case studies, analyzes Taiwan’s labor group’s retiring demand and insufficiency of funds and presents some suggestions relative to improvement on the latent financial gap. The case study for retiring demand and insufficiency of funds is subject to two factors. One is that the computing module is based on the pension system being run currently, a fixed inflation rate and excluding any potential factors in changing the society and economy, such as the updated social insurance policy by the government. The other is that the Return on Investment (ROI) is computed by using past data and only one simple ROI is applied, not in line with the actual situation that the assets in investment portfolio have individual risk coefficient and varied ROI. In addition to the conclusions, the research presents the following suggestions: 1.Given the present situation in Taiwan that both the social insurance system and enterprise’s pension schemes are unable to meet personal retiring needs, the individual is supposed to prepare for the funds as early as possible. 2.To take care of the staff and preserve the talent, the employer can set up extra program of retirement and welfare for the employee. 3.The regulator can take preferential measures to lessen the tax burden on pension, modestly adjust the operation and management of three material pension funds comprising Labor Insurance, Old and New Labor Pension Funds as well as offer the option for the laborer to invest the self-choosing target pursuit the New Labor Pension Fund and so on.

為探討臺灣民眾退休不足度，本研究不同以往問卷式詢問臺灣民眾準備狀況，使用所得替代率(replacement rate)為工具，建構估算模型，透過宏利人壽委託政大民調中心進行的民調數據，實際估算勞工與軍公教民眾退休不足度，其中發現台灣有24%勞工民眾在退休後無法達到60%所得替代率，且低估死亡時間與高估報酬率都會對勞工退休不足度造成影響。而對軍公教民眾而言，以80%所得替代率進行估算，才會有退休不足的問題，而低估死亡時間與高估報酬率對退休不足影響較小。此外探討退休信心與實際估算不一致的情況，主要發現高所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生有信心但準備不足60%所得替代率的情況，而低所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生沒有信心但可以準備80%所得替代率的情況，本研究認為是因為臺灣現行退休金制度下，高所得的勞工民眾若要達到相同所得替代率，所需儲蓄率高於低所得的勞工民眾。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the Retirement Shortfall in Taiwan by using replacement rate. Building model with the poll data which is commissioned by Manulife Life Insurance and conducted by Market Survey Research Center of National Chengchi University, we found that the populations of the civil servants can achieve 60% replacement rate after retirement, but 24 percent of labors can’t reach the 60% income replacement rate. Besides, the retirement shortfall of labors become worse after adjusting by the overestimate of rate of return and underestimate of longevity risk. In short, labor people should contribute more to their pension in case they may have inadequate retirement situation. Using logistic regression, we found that people of high-income have tendency to feel overly optimistic of their retirement shortfall, vice versa. Social security and pension benefit provide less replacement rate for people of high-income, so rich people need highly save rate.

論文摘要: 本研究以現金餘額計劃（Cash Balance Plan）及確定提撥退休金計劃（Defined Contribution Pension Plan）建構出公務人員退撫基金之建議機制，建構之主要目的在於透過第一層現金餘額計劃之利息給付機制降低退休基金利率風險，同時由第二層確定提撥計劃獲取額外退休所得，使雇主與員工在双層式退休金計劃下，同時承擔投資風險，以降低基金利率風險並同時滿足適當退休所得保障。本文在現金餘額計劃不同控管年限及利息給付假設下，模擬超額積蓄（Overfunded）基金與不足額積蓄（Underfunded）基金執行資產負債管理（Asset Liability Management）所需存續期間，同時模擬双層式退休金計劃提供員工之退休所得替代率，研究結果發現： 1、超額積蓄基金及不足額積蓄基金均可以在目前資本市場中找到符合所需存續期間之資產投資。在控管20年限內，超額積蓄基金所需存續期間在-1.71年到0.39年之間；不足額積蓄基金所需存續期間在4.68年到8.31年之間。 2、退休基金越接近超額狀態越有利於資產負債管理。當基金積蓄狀態越接近超額積蓄時，基金負債與資產的比例較不足額積蓄基金低，故資產負債管理所需存續期間較短，對於基金能夠控管的年限也越長。 3、雇主可透過現金餘額計劃利息給付機制執行百分之百免疫策略。雇主可利用現金餘額計劃利息給付依據外部債券利率為參考依據的特性，鎖定債券利率，達到資產負債管理百分之百免疫效果。 4、現金餘額計劃執行百分之百免疫策略情況下，45歲以下公務人員採行自動選擇投資基金（Default Fund）為高風險投資基金，自動選擇提撥率（Default Rate）為每月薪資5.08﹪，可使員工達到適當所得替代率保障水準。 / Abstract This thesis proposes an new alternative two-tier pension composed of Cash Balance Plan (CBP ) and defined contribution pension plan to the traditional defined benefit pension plan of Taiwan Public Employee Retirement System(TPERS). In order to decrease the interest-rate risk of the pension fund and to provide additional retirement income protection, we utilize the credit rate mechanism of CBP and supplement CBP with additional defined contribution plan. We investigate the Asset-Liability Management (ALM) for TPERS and calculate the liability duration under different time horizons, interest credits of CBP. We also simulate the replacement rate of the two-tier pension plan under different contribution rates, and investment returns. The results are as follows: 1、Given the twenty-year time horizons, the asset duration of overfunded plan ranges between –1.71 years and 0.39 years, whereas that of underfunded plan varies from 4.68 years to 8.31 years. In this case, the requirements of asset duration can be satisfied in the Taiwan Capital Market. 2、The overfunded pension plan has higher probabilities to meet the requirements of asset duration. Therefore, we suggest that the fund manager can increase the asset allocation percentage of external fund management in order to improve the long-term returns. 3、Perfect matching of pension fund can be achieved by matching the yield of securities to interest credit under CBP . In addition, we suggest that the interest credit of the new labor contracts should take the trend of the current interest rate into consideration. 4、Replacement rates provided by CBP for woman range from 19.05﹪ to 45.70﹪and from 20.86﹪to 50.05﹪for man assuming the interest credit rate is 5.2%. To increase the retirement income, the defined contribution plan provide additional replacement rate between 13.56﹪and 162.96﹪for woman and between 14.85﹪and 178.42﹪for man assuming the employee can contribute 3.08 percent to 13.37 percent of regular salaries and investment returns are from 4 percent to 8 percent .

為使台灣公部門能利用確定提撥的概念及妥善運用投資資源，以期在減少政府負擔的情況下獲得足夠的退休所得，故本研究以所得替代率、金錢價值比及平均數-變異數比等指標來針對公務人員退撫基金附加節約儲蓄制度採行之可能與投資策略彼此運用之模擬結果加以分析，結果如下： 1. 各情境下以BH策略所得出之期末個人帳戶平均累積值表現最佳，然其具相當大的波動變異程度，投資人需承受相當大的風險。而TIPP策略之表現則與前述完全相反。 2. 若投資者採用BH策略或是採用CPPI與TIPP策略(CM策略)且欲追求較高的所得替代率，則建議採用Lifecycle(平衡型)的投資比例配置方式，加計DB制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約70.204%-75.204% (65.49%-70.49%)的所得替代率，而金錢價值比則為2.399(2.95)。 3. 無論投資者採用何種策略進行投資，若欲追求最小的可能變異風險，則建議採取平衡型的投資比例配置方式，加計確定給付制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%)的所得替代率，金錢價值比則為2.6835。 本文模擬結果所得出之所得替代率平均維持於70%上下，代表若政府將可藉此制度減輕政府負擔外亦可使員工擁有一定水平的退休生活，故可採用。至於投資策略與配置方式如何取捨須依不同的投資者而定。 　 關鍵詞：公務人員退撫基金、確定提撥制、所得替代率、金錢價值比、Lifecycle / Abstract Because the improvement of medical technology and the structure of population is aging. It makes human worry about the living in the future. In order to enable the public servants of Taiwan to utilize the system of the Defined Contribution and to relief the pressure of fiscal, so we simulate in this article and analysis the results of simulation by using replacement rate, money’s worth ratio, and mean-variance ratio. The result is as follows: 1.When investor adopt the BH strategy in the process of investment, it will create the best replacement rate and money’s worth ratio under every situation, but it can be anticipated more uncertainty. Investors need to think thrice before they act. The TIPP strategy is opposite. 2.If investors adopt BH strategy or CPPI and TIPP strategy (CM strategy) and wanting to pursue the substituting rate of the higher income , the best selection is proposed adopting the Lifecycle (balanced) scenario, and it can offer replacement ratio about 70.204% - 75.204% (65.49% - 70.49% ) for the man (the woman ) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.399 (2.95). 3. If the investors want to pursue the least influence in the process of investment whatever investors adopt which strategies, the best scenario is the balanced type, and it can offer replacement ratio about 67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%) for the man (the woman) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.6835. The outcome of the simulation in this article is keep the replacement rate maintain about 70% equally, What is the best selection for investor that must be contingent upon different characteristics of investors. Keywords: public servants, Defined Contribution, Replacement rate, The money’s worth ratio, Lifecycle hypothesis.

近年來隨著台灣人口日漸少子化，「養兒防老」的傳統觀念已不符時勢所趨，面對高齡化社會所帶來龐大的財政負擔及老年人口安養等社會問題。過去研究結果提供了一可能的解決方案－「逆向房屋抵押貸款（Reverse Mortgage, RM）」，然而，對於此種新型貸款在台灣推行之完整可行性分析，相關研究尚付之闕如。是故，本研究從承貸雙方角度出發，旨在深入探討未來逆向房屋抵押貸款在台推行之可行性。 首先，對於申貸者而言，本研究以30至60歲且名下擁有不動產之家戶為研究單位，並用問卷調查台灣中年房屋持有者申請逆向房屋抵押貸款之意願程度。針對調查結果，再以「羅吉斯迴歸（Logistic Regression）」分析影響申請意願之顯著因子，據以探討申請意願與受訪者特性兩者之關係。 其次，從承貸者角度建立一貸款定價模型，模擬分析於損益兩平條件下，貸款機構有無貸款保險，以及於不同貸款給付方案中，其可提供逆向房屋抵押貸款之最高可貸款成數（Loan to Value, LTV）。再者，進一步結合台灣各主要都會區房價資料，研究顯示所得替代率（Income Replacement Ratio, IRR-RM）符合多數申貸者之基本需求。 本研究預期「逆向房屋抵押貸款」除了有效解決人口老化所衍生之社會問題外，亦兼具政府「就地老化（Aging in Place）」政策效益，提升了老年生活品質，維護老年人口的尊嚴。 / With the continuously declining fertility rates and the increasing life expectancy, Taiwan has become one of the aging societies in the world. To release the financial strain of the government, a great number of literature has suggested an alternative option, Reverse Mortgage (RM), to improve the retiring life quality of the elders. However, little attention has been given specifically to the feasibility of the application of RM and the pricing model in individual countries. This study thus conducted the questionnaire and collected the data in Taiwan for analysis in order to show the implementation feasibility of RM in aging society for both the aspects of both lenders and borrowers. First of all, to find out the factors affecting the willingness in applying for RM and the characteristic of the middle-aged homeowners, we designed a survey and a quantitative analysis of the questionnaire through Logistic Regression Analysis. Second, under a break-even hypothesis, we analyzed the ratio of Loan to Value (LTV) a reverse mortgage lender would offer through the simulation model. Furthermore, the housing data from different metropolises of Taiwan is integrated into the study in order to determine whether if the Income Replacement Ratio of RM (IRR-RM) could meet the basic needs of Taiwanese. Results found in this paper suggest that RM could satisfy the general need of people in Taiwan. Procedures conducted in this study may also provide precious insight for other aging countries. This paper suggests that reverse mortgage could not only solve the society issues, but also secure the retiring lives of the elders and preserve their living qualities.

本文分析現在的退休金制度和老年經濟安全保障的情形，同時討論家庭所得來源的趨勢，並推估未來退休後所需的費用。最後提供予個人儘早為自己做一些規劃與準備的建議。老年經濟安全保障在台灣地區因為各項因素的影響，顯得十分不足，經由收集資料並分析比較後，以15～64歲的人口來看老年經濟安全三層的保障情況，其中佔4％的軍公教人員有較完整的退休保障制度；佔50％的勞工人口，在第一層的保障中，於2000年平均勞保老年給付每人658,273元。又因為制度未臻完善，第二層之保障只有1～2％的人可以領到退休金。此外，佔有7％的農民在年滿65歲之後，只有不完整的第一層保障，即每月3,000元的老農津貼可領。其他39％的人是未參加公保、勞保或農保等任一項社會保險的。也就是有95％的人是需要儘早規劃退休後的經濟準備。面對大環境中的財政赤字及個人平均壽命的增長，子女親朋經濟支援的減少等等因素，更顯得及早規劃老年經濟安全的迫切性。 關鍵詞：老年經濟安全保障、退休金、國民年金、生活費用推估、所得替代率 / This study focused on investigation and evaluation of the pension system and economic security program in Taiwan. For indviduals, the trend on home income and the required expense for the future retirement were discussed and estimated. Becaurs of several factors, the program of old-age economic security in Taiwan area seems not sound. For this topic, the work force, between 15 and 64 ears old, are taken into account, There are three tiers for the program of old-age economic security, which anr social security and benefit, pension, and individual saving. One of hte finding was that public officials, about four percent of the work force, benefit much more form the pension system and old-age economic security program. The labores, about 50 percent of the work force, have the everage amount NT$658,273 for the 1^st-tier social security and benefit in 2000. Due to the unsound system and the qualiication problem, less than two percent of the laborers can obtain the 2^nd-tier pension. Beside, farmers, about seven percent of the work force, can obtain the 1^st-tier social security and benefit until they are 65 years old or more. Those qualified farmers can obtain NT$3,000 each month. Other individuals are not enrolled in any social insurance and pension program. The public welfare system can hardly cover the economic needs for the aged individuals. Therefore, 95 percent of the work force should plan their own retirement welfare programs in advance to secure thir economic safety. Key words: Old-age Economic Security, Pension, Citizen Beneficiary, Living Expensee Estimate, income replacement rate