本研究對中國大陸房地產市場設立需求及供給函數，並使用中國大陸2001 到2009 年的省級資料進行研究分析，以探討中國大陸房地產市場的所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場供給與需求的影響。 經由實證估計出來的所得彈性值域為1.77 ~ 3.00，價格彈性值域為0.08 ~ -0.80。相較於過往的文獻與研究，估計到的彈性較高，顯現出即便中國大陸房價持續飆漲，民眾仍肯購置房產，且房價飆漲對於房地產市場的需求量影響有限，乃因民眾對於未來的經濟情勢持樂觀的態度。 而貸款成數方面，在貸放資金大增的環境下，對於中國大陸的房地產需求及供給市場大抵而言有顯著影響，而貸款成數的增加也使得房地產需求及供給量跟隨增加。 / The research constructed the demand and supply function for the market of China's real estate, and used the provincial data in China from 2001 to 2009 to analysis. Based on the information, we discussed the income elasticity and the price elasticity, and furthermore the impacts of the percentage of loans on the China's real estate market. According to the empirical estimate, the range of income elasticity was from 1.77 to 3.00, and for the price elasticity, it was from 0.08 to -0.80. Compare with those previous studies, the higher level of elasticity represented that although the real estate price continued soaring in China, people were still willing to purchase. Moreover, the soaring price had a limited influence in the demand of real estate market, and the main reason was that people were all optimistic about the future. To the percentage of loans, in this environment of the sharp increase in money lending, we found that it affect the demand and the supply market of real estate significantly, and with the relaxation of credit control, it led the demand and the supply of real estate to increase.

本論文將Poterba(1984)所建構的房屋市場模型由部分均衡擴展為一般均衡，引入貸款成數及加碼利率做宣示效果分析。探討民眾在未預料到和預料到的兩種情況下，貸款成數及加碼利率變動對房價和房屋存量的影響，可得到結論如下： 一、當貸款成數降低時，不論房量變動的正負效果相對大小如何，均會使長期的房屋價格下跌和房屋存量減少。 二、當加碼利率提高時，在加碼利率變動的正效果大於負效果的情況下，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均上升；反之，當加碼利率變動的正效果小於負效果，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均會減少。 三、政府可利用降低貸款成數達到抑制房價的政策目標；但若要以提高加碼利率達成抑制房價的目標，則要視加碼利率的正負效果相對大小而定。 四、政策宣告會改變民眾的預期，促使房價於政策宣告後立即跳動，並在政策執行前就已對房屋存量和房價做出反應。在宣告降低貸款成數的瞬間，房價會有跳躍性減少的情況；但在宣告提高加碼利率的瞬間，房價則視加碼利率變動的正負效果相對大小，有跳躍性上升或下降的情況。 / This thesis extends the housing market model pioneered by Poterba(1984) from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated policies of the loan-to-value ratio and the mark-up rate govern the transitional dynamics of housing prices and the housing stock. There are two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, a reduction in the loan-to-value ratio leads to a decline in both of housing prices and the housing stock, regardless of whether the increased loan-to value ratio is beneficial or harmful to the return on housing. Second, in response to a rise in the mark-up rate, whether the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go up or go down depends on the mark-up rate effect. Both housing prices and the housing stock go up if the increased mark-up rate contributes a positive effect on the return of holding houses. By contrast, the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go down if the increased mark-up rate causes a negative effect on the return on housing holdings.

近年來隨著台灣人口日漸少子化，「養兒防老」的傳統觀念已不符時勢所趨，面對高齡化社會所帶來龐大的財政負擔及老年人口安養等社會問題。過去研究結果提供了一可能的解決方案－「逆向房屋抵押貸款（Reverse Mortgage, RM）」，然而，對於此種新型貸款在台灣推行之完整可行性分析，相關研究尚付之闕如。是故，本研究從承貸雙方角度出發，旨在深入探討未來逆向房屋抵押貸款在台推行之可行性。 首先，對於申貸者而言，本研究以30至60歲且名下擁有不動產之家戶為研究單位，並用問卷調查台灣中年房屋持有者申請逆向房屋抵押貸款之意願程度。針對調查結果，再以「羅吉斯迴歸（Logistic Regression）」分析影響申請意願之顯著因子，據以探討申請意願與受訪者特性兩者之關係。 其次，從承貸者角度建立一貸款定價模型，模擬分析於損益兩平條件下，貸款機構有無貸款保險，以及於不同貸款給付方案中，其可提供逆向房屋抵押貸款之最高可貸款成數（Loan to Value, LTV）。再者，進一步結合台灣各主要都會區房價資料，研究顯示所得替代率（Income Replacement Ratio, IRR-RM）符合多數申貸者之基本需求。 本研究預期「逆向房屋抵押貸款」除了有效解決人口老化所衍生之社會問題外，亦兼具政府「就地老化（Aging in Place）」政策效益，提升了老年生活品質，維護老年人口的尊嚴。 / With the continuously declining fertility rates and the increasing life expectancy, Taiwan has become one of the aging societies in the world. To release the financial strain of the government, a great number of literature has suggested an alternative option, Reverse Mortgage (RM), to improve the retiring life quality of the elders. However, little attention has been given specifically to the feasibility of the application of RM and the pricing model in individual countries. This study thus conducted the questionnaire and collected the data in Taiwan for analysis in order to show the implementation feasibility of RM in aging society for both the aspects of both lenders and borrowers. First of all, to find out the factors affecting the willingness in applying for RM and the characteristic of the middle-aged homeowners, we designed a survey and a quantitative analysis of the questionnaire through Logistic Regression Analysis. Second, under a break-even hypothesis, we analyzed the ratio of Loan to Value (LTV) a reverse mortgage lender would offer through the simulation model. Furthermore, the housing data from different metropolises of Taiwan is integrated into the study in order to determine whether if the Income Replacement Ratio of RM (IRR-RM) could meet the basic needs of Taiwanese. Results found in this paper suggest that RM could satisfy the general need of people in Taiwan. Procedures conducted in this study may also provide precious insight for other aging countries. This paper suggests that reverse mortgage could not only solve the society issues, but also secure the retiring lives of the elders and preserve their living qualities.

房屋貸款保證保險制度可移轉部分違約風險予保險公司。然而，保險公司與金融機構在共同承擔風險之際，因房貸保證保險制度之施行，於提高貸款成數後，產生違約風險提高之矛盾現象；而估計保險之預期損失時，以目前尚無此制度下之違約數據估計損失額，將有錯估之可能。 本研究以二元邏吉斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Regression Model)與存活分析(Survival Analysis)估計違約行為，並比較各模型間資料適合度及預測能力，進而單獨分析變數-貸款成數對違約率之邊際機率影響。以探討房貸保證保險施行後，因其對借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，所增加之違約風險。並評估金融機構因提高貸款成數後可能之違約風險變動，據以推估違約率數據，並根據房貸保證保險費率結構模型，計算可能之預期損失額，估算變動的保險費率。 實證結果發現，貸款成數與違約風險呈現顯著正相關，貸款成數增加，邊際影響呈遞增情形，違約率隨之遞增，而違約預期損失額亦同時上升。保險公司因預期損失額增加，為維持保費收入得以支付預期損失，其保險費率將明顯提升。故實施房屋貸款保證保險，因借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，將增加違約機率並對保險費率產生直接變動。 / Mortgage insurance system may transfer part of the default risk to insurance companies. However, the implementation of mortgage insurance system, on increasing loan to value ratio, the resulting increase default risk. And literatures estimate the expected loss without the default data, there will be misjudge. Our study constructs the binary logistic regression model and survival analysis to estimate the mortgage default behavior, and compare the data between the model fit and the predictive power. Analyzes the effect of loan to value ratio on the marginal probability of default rate. Furthermore, assess the financial institutions in the risk of default due to loan to value ratio changes. According to the estimated default rate data, we employ the mortgage insurance rate structural model to calculate the expected amount of loss and the changes in premium rates. Empirical results found loan to value ratio have a significant positive effect on borrowers’ default. Loan to value ratio increase, the marginal effect progressively increase, along with increasing default rates and expected default losses. Due to the ascendant expected loss, insurance companies increase premiums to cover the expected loss, the premium rate will be significantly improved. Therefore, the implementation of mortgage insurance, credit enhancement for the borrower to improve loan to value ratio, will increase the probability of default and insurance rates.

房地產市場與銀行放款業務間，因為存在著密不可分之關係，本研究主要目的為釐清貸款利率與貸款成數對住宅價格是否具有顯著影響，進而探討中央銀行之選擇性信用管制政策，對於貸款利率、貸款成數與住宅價格之間，是否具有政策效果，最後再針對不同的需求族群，給予購屋行為選擇之參考或為銀行選擇貸款客群之參考。 本研究透過實證分析發現，貸款成數對於住宅價格為正向顯著影響，但貸款利率對住宅價格，則未呈現顯著影響。而政府之選擇性信用管制措施，在實證結果中，並未達到抑制房價之目的。但是在實施信用管制之後，購屋者對與貸款利率，相對更為敏感。在需求族群的分析上，發現高所得族群相對較重視貸款利率，而中所得與低所得族群，則相對較重視貸款成數。低年齡族群較高年齡族群而言，相對較為重視貸款利率之增加。 對於持續關心貸款利率、成數與住宅價格關聯之研究者，本研究建議後續研究者在資料取得之允許下，可嘗試拉長研究期間，及考慮增加了解政策鬆綁後之影響。在資料完整度許可下，建議可以增加個人屬性變數，並考量都更效應之變數。 / There is an inextricably linkage between the real estate market and the bank lending business. The main purpose of this study is to identify the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value (LTV) ratio, and housing price. Further, we discuss the policy effect among them, due to the central bank's selective credit control policy. Finally, the supply-demand sides, our study hopes to give the choice of purchase behavior on demand groups or the selection of bank on loan-customers In our study, we found that the loan to value ratio has a significant positive effect on the housing price, but the mortgage interest rate has no significant effect on the housing price. In the empirical results, we found that the government's selective credit control policy did not achieve the purpose of curbing housing prices. However, after the implementation of selective credit control policy, the housing-buyer is relatively more sensitive to the mortgage interest rate. In the analysis of demand groups, the study found that high-income groups pay more attention to the mortgage interest rate. However, the middle-income and low-income groups emphasize on loan to value relative to the high-income groups. Finally, the young age groups relatively emphasize on the increase of the mortgage interest rates. For the researchers who continue to care about the relationships among mortgage interest rate, loan to value ratio, and housing price, the study suggests that follow-up researchers, with the permission of the data, may attempt to lengthen the study period and consider increasing the impact of easing the policy. Under the data integrity permission, it is advisable to add personal attribute variables and take into account the variables of the urban renewal effect.