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貸款成數、加碼利率與房價的動態調整 / Loan-to-value ratio, mark-up rate and housing price dynamics彭思瑾, Peng, Ssu Chin Unknown Date (has links)
本論文將Poterba(1984)所建構的房屋市場模型由部分均衡擴展為一般均衡,引入貸款成數及加碼利率做宣示效果分析。探討民眾在未預料到和預料到的兩種情況下,貸款成數及加碼利率變動對房價和房屋存量的影響,可得到結論如下:
一、當貸款成數降低時,不論房量變動的正負效果相對大小如何,均會使長期的房屋價格下跌和房屋存量減少。
二、當加碼利率提高時,在加碼利率變動的正效果大於負效果的情況下,長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均上升;反之,當加碼利率變動的正效果小於負效果,長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均會減少。
三、政府可利用降低貸款成數達到抑制房價的政策目標;但若要以提高加碼利率達成抑制房價的目標,則要視加碼利率的正負效果相對大小而定。
四、政策宣告會改變民眾的預期,促使房價於政策宣告後立即跳動,並在政策執行前就已對房屋存量和房價做出反應。在宣告降低貸款成數的瞬間,房價會有跳躍性減少的情況;但在宣告提高加碼利率的瞬間,房價則視加碼利率變動的正負效果相對大小,有跳躍性上升或下降的情況。 / This thesis extends the housing market model pioneered by Poterba(1984) from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated policies of the loan-to-value ratio and the mark-up rate govern the transitional dynamics of housing prices and the housing stock.
There are two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, a reduction in the loan-to-value ratio leads to a decline in both of housing prices and the housing stock, regardless of whether the increased loan-to value ratio is beneficial or harmful to the return on housing. Second, in response to a rise in the mark-up rate, whether the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go up or go down depends on the mark-up rate effect. Both housing prices and the housing stock go up if the increased mark-up rate contributes a positive effect on the return of holding houses. By contrast, the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go down if the increased mark-up rate causes a negative effect on the return on housing holdings.
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