In this study, it is determined that excess returns on the OMX 30 are confirmed to rise in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made by the central banks of Sweden and The United States of America. Those findings were manifested at a greater magnitude on the first day prior to the announcements and on a statistically significant level one day prior to monetary policy decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee. Moreover, excess returns beyond the average rate were found to be substantially higher on the first and third day prior monetary policy decisions from the Swedish Central bank (Riksbanken) albeit not on a statistically significant level. The results drawn from the data in the study were reinforced by findings in similar tests conducted during times of global recession.

本論文將Poterba(1984)所建構的房屋市場模型由部分均衡擴展為一般均衡，引入貸款成數及加碼利率做宣示效果分析。探討民眾在未預料到和預料到的兩種情況下，貸款成數及加碼利率變動對房價和房屋存量的影響，可得到結論如下： 一、當貸款成數降低時，不論房量變動的正負效果相對大小如何，均會使長期的房屋價格下跌和房屋存量減少。 二、當加碼利率提高時，在加碼利率變動的正效果大於負效果的情況下，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均上升；反之，當加碼利率變動的正效果小於負效果，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均會減少。 三、政府可利用降低貸款成數達到抑制房價的政策目標；但若要以提高加碼利率達成抑制房價的目標，則要視加碼利率的正負效果相對大小而定。 四、政策宣告會改變民眾的預期，促使房價於政策宣告後立即跳動，並在政策執行前就已對房屋存量和房價做出反應。在宣告降低貸款成數的瞬間，房價會有跳躍性減少的情況；但在宣告提高加碼利率的瞬間，房價則視加碼利率變動的正負效果相對大小，有跳躍性上升或下降的情況。 / This thesis extends the housing market model pioneered by Poterba(1984) from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated policies of the loan-to-value ratio and the mark-up rate govern the transitional dynamics of housing prices and the housing stock. There are two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, a reduction in the loan-to-value ratio leads to a decline in both of housing prices and the housing stock, regardless of whether the increased loan-to value ratio is beneficial or harmful to the return on housing. Second, in response to a rise in the mark-up rate, whether the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go up or go down depends on the mark-up rate effect. Both housing prices and the housing stock go up if the increased mark-up rate contributes a positive effect on the return of holding houses. By contrast, the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go down if the increased mark-up rate causes a negative effect on the return on housing holdings.