隨著人口結構變遷(高齡化)，我國老年退休後的所得維持保障已日趨重要 ，各國對於工業化所產生的職業傷害、疾病、失業和老年等社會風險，大 都建立社會安全制度加以保障，目前我國尚未有全民性的退休制度，但對 於既存的退休維持體系，本文認為有必要加以全面性的探討，根據 Esping-Andersen對福利國家階層化的分析，指出社會安全制度本身已成 為社會階層化的體系，即不平等的根源，因此，本文企圖從平等和階層化 的觀點來分析我國老年退休所得維持體系。本文主要探討對象著重在公務 人員和勞工之退休所得維持體系，至於軍人和私立學校等退休所得維持體 系，因資料取得困難，則不加以探討。本文之分析架構分為二部分，第一 、退休所得維持體系之制度建構分析，第二、分別探討目前公務人員(狹 義的依公務人員任用法任用之公務人員)和勞工所得維持體系制度面設計 最高法定給付之所得替代率，及執行面之實際所得替代率進行統計分析及 推估。本研究結果重點如下：一、公務人員退休所得維持體系之立法特性 與階層化由歷史分析得知，公保之建制強調其為官吏人事制度，立法定位 不同於一般保險，在第二層相關退休辦法和第三層優惠存款所得保障出現 階層化現象。二、公務人員(狹義的)退休所得維持方案在制度設計上，三 層所得保障下，最高法定給付之所得替代率已達98.79\%(一次退休 金)90.70\%(月退休金)，實際給付面已相當落實，所得替代率達86.75\% ，而新制公務人員退休法施行後，公務人員所得替代率將大幅提高，所得 替率高達128. 32\%(一次退休金)或108.70\%，將加深其不平等的程度。 三、勞工退休所得維持方案之階層化一般勞工只有勞保老年給付，僅有部 分勞工可享有第二層退休所得保障，即適用勞基法的勞工，因此出現勞工 間的階層化。實際執行上，因薪資以多報少問題嚴重，平均所得替代率只 有14.31\%；而有雙重保障部分的勞工，平均所得替代率43.85\%。四 、 勞基法退休給付執行面之階層化效果根據本研究發現企業別與退休給付之 間產生了一階層化效果，除公營事業單位和大型民營企業外，大多數勞工 無法領到勞基法所規定之退休金，不論在給付件數上(詳見表6.3)，或給 付額度上(詳見表6.4)，小規模的企業都無法落實。性別與退休給付間亦 產生了階層化效果，在給付件數上，女性只佔15\%左右，其餘高達85\%皆 為男性。 /

本文主要在探討確定提撥退休金計劃下，投資決策對所得替代率之影響，以提供員工退休規劃及政府政策擬定之參考。首先，我們建構退休金累積模型及所得替代率模型，其中所得替代率之計算是以含通貨膨脹率因子的年金方式給付退休金。然後，將影響退休金累積模型的精算因子：累積期間的投資報酬率，依據過去的月資料配適出其母體分配，以模擬員工未來退休時，使用年金方式給付退休金的所得替代率。本文進一步，提供員工在不同投資報酬下應相對提撥多少百分比，以達到適當的所得替代率水準的參考標準，以滿足員工未來退休時的生活所需。我們以民國87年「勞工退休金條例草案」及台灣投資市場的實証資料進行研究，本研究結果如右：當僱主提撥6%月薪資時，(一)若員工可選擇投資標的，女性、男性員工所得替代率分均值分別介於48%~70%、52%~75%，而且選擇高度風險基金之所得替代率平均值皆較低度風險基金高出45 %，但為了使所得替代率小於60%的機率低於10%，女性、男性員工選擇高度風險基金需較低度風險基金分別多提撥3 %、2 %。(二)若退休基金由勞委會統籌管理，以過去實証平均報酬率8%，計算女性、男性員工所得替代率分別為50%、54%，但為達到60%所得替代率，女性、男性員工需分別相對提撥2%、1%。(三)比較「員工可選擇投資標的」與「勞委會統籌分配管理」兩種退休基金管理方式，若員工可選擇投資標的亦有最低保証收益，結果發現員工可選擇投資標的之投資績效及所得替代率皆優於勞委會統籌分配管理。 / The thesis investigates the impacts of the employee’s investment decision making on income replacement rate for defined contribution plan. We first construct the pension accumulation model to compute the final retirement benefit under defined contribution plan. Furthermore, the empirical data of the investment returns from mutual fund market and that from Labor Insurance Bureau are utilized to simulate the possible investment returns distribution for employee before retirement. The replacement rate is then calculated by assuming the employee will use his/her final retirement benefit to buy a single premium annuity with inflation index adjustment from the insurance company. Finally, based on simulation results from different scenarios, we suggest a relative employee contribution rate in order for employee to reach his/her objective replacement rate under different risk aversion levels. Our results show: 1. If the employee can make investment decision by investing in the mutual fund market, in average, female employee can have 48~70% replacement rate, while male employee can have 52~75%. We also find the replacement rate for employee selecting the high-risk mutual fund is 45% higher than those for selecting the low-risk mutual fund. 2. If the employee can not make investment decision and Labor Insurance Bureau allocate the pension asset, female employee can have 50% replacement rate, while male employee can have 54%. 3. Comparing the above two alternatives under the assumption that the employee has minimum guarantee return in both case, we find the first option can generate higher replacement rate for employee.

依據國際研究機構之預測，人口老化與少子化是本(21)世紀人類最重大的挑戰，我國在近年生育率下滑的情況下，社會人口老化問題尤其嚴重。本研究基於關切現行社會保險制度與退休金準備，能否支應個人在未來老年時期之醫護照顧與經濟負擔等議題，先敘述國人將面臨日趨嚴重之長壽風險，再引述美國、香港運用兼具財產隔離與專業服務基本功能的信託制度經營管理退休金市場的成功模式，導論政府與企業建立退休金管理制度、個人及早儲備退休金之重要性，希冀喚起國人對儲備個人退休金帳戶準備之重視。 本研究架構共分一、緒論；二、基礎理論與文獻探討，涵蓋信託制度、退休金信託計畫與資金運用、國外退休制度探討等；三、我國信託制度退休商品之運用；四、台灣勞工族群退休需求與不足度分析；五、信託制度退休商品之實務運作個案探討；六、結論與建議共六章。藉由闡述信託制度的特質、功能，與退休金於累積期間資金運用、清償期資金規劃之基礎理論；引申先進國家退休金制度以信託制度結合退休金計畫的成熟實施經驗，本研究以三個實際個案研究，分析我國勞工族群之退休需求與不足度；並就勞工族群潛在之退休金財務缺口所提出之相關建議。 在探討個案之退休需求與不足度分析部分，研究之限制有二：一為計算模組係以目前實施之退休金制度為基礎，並假設一單純之通貨膨脹率與排除社會經濟可能之變動因素，如未考慮政府可能進行社會保險政策變革因素。二為在計算過程中，投資報酬率之假設係依照過往之投資報酬率推估，並採用資產單一投資報酬率之方式計算分析，未能符合現實狀況中，資產投資組合有其各自之風險係數與不同之報酬率情形。 本研究報告除提出結論外，並提出以下建議： 一、勞工消費大眾在目前之社會保險、企業退休金給付制度無法完全滿足退休需求下，個人應及早另行儲備退休金。 二、企業雇主照顧員工、留住優秀人才，可採行額外之勞工退休福利制度。 三、主管機關可就退休金稅賦優惠措施、勞保、新舊制勞退三大退休基金經營管理方式適度調整及勞退新制開放勞工自選投資標的等。 / It has been foreseen by international research institutions that both problems, the aging of population and the trend towards fewer children, are the most significant challenges which the mankind is facing in the 21st century. In Taiwan, the trend of decreasing birth rate, as shown in recent years, indicates that the aging of population is particularly severe in Taiwan. Based on concerns about whether the present social insurance system and the pension provision are sufficient to meet personal retiring needs such as health care and living expenditure and so on, the research begins with the narration of the rising longevity risk faced by people in Taiwan, then illustrating the successful mode set up by the US and Hong Kong that utilizes the trust system incorporating both the property isolation and the basic professional services to operate and manage the pension market, and eventually concludes that it is of significance for both the government and the enterprise to establish the pension management system as well as for the individual to prepare for the retiring funds as early as possible, looking forward to drawing high attention to the importance of provision for personal pension account. This research is constructed in six parts, Part I: Introduction; Part II: Basic Theory and Literature Review, covering trust system, pension trust plan and funds utilization, foreign retirement system review and so on; Part III: Application of Retirement Products in Taiwan’s Trust System; Part IV: Analysis of Taiwan’s Labor Group’s Retiring Demand and Insufficiency of Funds; Part V: Case Study on Practical Operation for Retirement Products in Taiwan’s Trust System; Part VI: Conclusion and Suggestion. By means of elaborating trust system's characteristic and function and the basic theories on both utilization of pension in the accumulation period and funds planning in the disbursement period, and further introducing the advanced countries’ sound experience in integrating the trust system with the pension schemes, the research, by three case studies, analyzes Taiwan’s labor group’s retiring demand and insufficiency of funds and presents some suggestions relative to improvement on the latent financial gap. The case study for retiring demand and insufficiency of funds is subject to two factors. One is that the computing module is based on the pension system being run currently, a fixed inflation rate and excluding any potential factors in changing the society and economy, such as the updated social insurance policy by the government. The other is that the Return on Investment (ROI) is computed by using past data and only one simple ROI is applied, not in line with the actual situation that the assets in investment portfolio have individual risk coefficient and varied ROI. In addition to the conclusions, the research presents the following suggestions: 1.Given the present situation in Taiwan that both the social insurance system and enterprise’s pension schemes are unable to meet personal retiring needs, the individual is supposed to prepare for the funds as early as possible. 2.To take care of the staff and preserve the talent, the employer can set up extra program of retirement and welfare for the employee. 3.The regulator can take preferential measures to lessen the tax burden on pension, modestly adjust the operation and management of three material pension funds comprising Labor Insurance, Old and New Labor Pension Funds as well as offer the option for the laborer to invest the self-choosing target pursuit the New Labor Pension Fund and so on.

本文分析現在的退休金制度和老年經濟安全保障的情形，同時討論家庭所得來源的趨勢，並推估未來退休後所需的費用。最後提供予個人儘早為自己做一些規劃與準備的建議。老年經濟安全保障在台灣地區因為各項因素的影響，顯得十分不足，經由收集資料並分析比較後，以15～64歲的人口來看老年經濟安全三層的保障情況，其中佔4％的軍公教人員有較完整的退休保障制度；佔50％的勞工人口，在第一層的保障中，於2000年平均勞保老年給付每人658,273元。又因為制度未臻完善，第二層之保障只有1～2％的人可以領到退休金。此外，佔有7％的農民在年滿65歲之後，只有不完整的第一層保障，即每月3,000元的老農津貼可領。其他39％的人是未參加公保、勞保或農保等任一項社會保險的。也就是有95％的人是需要儘早規劃退休後的經濟準備。面對大環境中的財政赤字及個人平均壽命的增長，子女親朋經濟支援的減少等等因素，更顯得及早規劃老年經濟安全的迫切性。 關鍵詞：老年經濟安全保障、退休金、國民年金、生活費用推估、所得替代率 / This study focused on investigation and evaluation of the pension system and economic security program in Taiwan. For indviduals, the trend on home income and the required expense for the future retirement were discussed and estimated. Becaurs of several factors, the program of old-age economic security in Taiwan area seems not sound. For this topic, the work force, between 15 and 64 ears old, are taken into account, There are three tiers for the program of old-age economic security, which anr social security and benefit, pension, and individual saving. One of hte finding was that public officials, about four percent of the work force, benefit much more form the pension system and old-age economic security program. The labores, about 50 percent of the work force, have the everage amount NT$658,273 for the 1^st-tier social security and benefit in 2000. Due to the unsound system and the qualiication problem, less than two percent of the laborers can obtain the 2^nd-tier pension. Beside, farmers, about seven percent of the work force, can obtain the 1^st-tier social security and benefit until they are 65 years old or more. Those qualified farmers can obtain NT$3,000 each month. Other individuals are not enrolled in any social insurance and pension program. The public welfare system can hardly cover the economic needs for the aged individuals. Therefore, 95 percent of the work force should plan their own retirement welfare programs in advance to secure thir economic safety. Key words: Old-age Economic Security, Pension, Citizen Beneficiary, Living Expensee Estimate, income replacement rate