This thesis focuses on the development of credit to the private sector in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Although the speed of credit growth in these countries has recently slowed down as the consequence of the global financial crisis, the overall increase in credit to the private sector over the past decades has been immense. As a result, the thesis examines whether this substantial increase in credit is linked to the convergence of the CEE countries towards the equilibrium or whether it represents an excessive credit growth that could threaten the macroeconomic and financial stability in these countries. We estimate the equilibrium credit levels for 11 transition countries by applying a dynamic panel data model. Since in-sample approach may bias the estimation results we perform the estimates out-of-sample using a panel of selected developed EU countries as a benchmark. The difference between the actual and estimated credit-to-GDP ratios serves as a measure of private credit excessiveness. The results indicate a slightly excessive or close to the equilibrium credit-to-GDP ratios in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia prior to the financial crisis. With regard to the significant decline in GDP during the crisis this measure of credit excessiveness in these countries have further increased.

Submitted by Dioscoro Gomes (dioscorogomes@gmail.com) on 2010-06-02T13:41:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ESCASSEZ DE CRÉDITO BANCÁRIO NO BRASIL COMPARAÇÃO INTERNACIONAL E EVIDÊNCIA RECENTE.pdf: 1555837 bytes, checksum: 6aebde8ee407dd08bda97ca25a4971c2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza(vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2010-06-02T15:02:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ESCASSEZ DE CRÉDITO BANCÁRIO NO BRASIL COMPARAÇÃO INTERNACIONAL E EVIDÊNCIA RECENTE.pdf: 1555837 bytes, checksum: 6aebde8ee407dd08bda97ca25a4971c2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-06-07T14:35:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ESCASSEZ DE CRÉDITO BANCÁRIO NO BRASIL COMPARAÇÃO INTERNACIONAL E EVIDÊNCIA RECENTE.pdf: 1555837 bytes, checksum: 6aebde8ee407dd08bda97ca25a4971c2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-31 / The objective of this work is to examine the level of bank credit in Brazil in the period after the Real Plan. To this, the work uses the Barajas and Steiner (2002) methodology but with a larger country sample (Brazil among nine Latin American countries and other forty outside Latin America). The results suggest that bank credit has not grown as expected and is still as volatile as the Latin America average. The size of the Brazilian banking system is not small as expected, but is less prone to lending to the private sector. Credit to the public sector still occupies a very important share of the Brazilian banking system balance sheet. About this matter the work shows that an increase in securitization could increase significantly the credit to the private sector. / O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar o nível de crédito bancário no Brasil no período pós implantação do Plano Real. Para isso, o trabalho utiliza a metodologia de Barajas e Steiner (2002) mas utilizando uma amostra maior de países (além da economia brasileira, nove países da América Latina e quarenta não América Latina). Os resultados encontrados mostram que o crédito bancário historicamente não cresceu como o esperado e ainda é tão volátil quanto a média América latina. O sistema bancário não mostrou-se menor do que o esperado para a economia brasileira, mas é menos propenso ao crédito ao setor privado. O crédito ao setor público ainda ocupa uma fatia muito relevante no balanço do agregado bancário e sobre esse respeito o trabalho mostra que um aumento na securitização e cessão de crédito aumenta significativamente o crédito ao setor privado.