[pt] O principal objetivo da dissertação é analisar crises de realinhamento da taxa de câmbio real. O modelo desenvolvido relaxa a hipótese da PPP, que é usual nos modelos de crises cambiais, e assume que o desequilíbrio da taxa de câmbio é derivado de choques exógenos no balanço de pagamentos. Este tipo de abordagem permite explicar crises que não são derivadas da adoção de políticas inconsistentes com o regime cambial fixo e sim resultado do processo de ajuste da economia. Um aspecto fundamental do modelo é a importância do grau de comprometimento do governo em relação ao câmbio fixo. A adoção de regimes de câmbio fixo com altos custos de saída, como o currency board, pode ser racionalizada através de um modelo simples como o apresentado. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze real exchange rate realignment crises. The model developed abandons the PPP hypothesis, which is common in the exchange rate crises models, and assumes that disequilibrium of the exchange rate is derived from exogenous shocks at the balance of payments. This type of approach allows us to explain crises that are not derived from the adoption of policies that are inconsistent with the fixed parity, but result from the process of adjusting the economy. A fundamental aspect of the model is the importance of the degree of commitment of the government in respect to the parity. The adoption of regimes of fixed exchange rate with high costs of exit, as currency boards, can be rationalized through a simple model as the one presented below.

M.A. / This study determines the role of crisis management in the dormant account crisis that faced three Swiss banks from 1995 until 2000. This research topic involving the Swiss banks was selected for numerous reasons. Firstly, there was an immense amount of media interest from around the world. Secondly, the geographical area that the crisis was focused in-the western world- is arguably the world's financial powerhouse. Thirdly, the issues surrounding the crisis itself were highly emotive and had its roots in the period shortly before World War Two. Fourthly, on closer investigation very little research had been done on Western corporate financial crises and most importantly, no research had been done on the way the Swiss banks managed their crisis. All of these issues combined provided a very interesting platform on which to begin researching the value of effective crisis management, from a strategic standpoint, for a western corporate financial company.To facilitate an effective and objective analysis of the case study, an extensive literature study had to be undertaken. The origins of public relations had to be researched to understand how the profession had developed. In addition, crisis management also had to be studied to understand how this discipline of public relations works. From there, the role of public relations had to be studied to comprehend exactly what should have been done, in terms of how crisis management is an element of public relations, for the Swiss banks before the crisis began.Following on from this it was established, from the literature study, that planning for a crisis is one of the foundations of crisis management.AThe most important aspects of and contributors to crisis planning were then considered. It was also established that crises have different stages that they pass through. This was then investigated as well as the relevant aspects needed to manage each stage. An important aspect encountered in each crisis is the media. The different parts of media training were studied. followed by arguably one of the most difficult aspects of crisis management- managing the media.

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In this paper, we analyse the relation between financial system and financial crises. Our goal is to find how, on the one hand, changes in the financial system affect the prospects for financial crises and, on the other hand, how the occurrence of financial crises shape the core elements of the financial system. We start by defining the financial crisis from three different perspectives. After it, we present the comprehensive history of financial crises that will allow us to continue by drawing some common patterns that are universal. Universal patterns in crises give us the ground for contemplating on some universal policy responses where we again follow different approaches. Taking into account the specifics of modern times and using the young and promising economy based on the blockchain, we are asking the question is this time different?. Analysis of initial development steps in the digital, trustless world gives us the basis for drawing parallels with the reality and the history. Our results suggest that there are many similarities throughout history and between the real and digital world. Instead of providing an exact answer on the question is this time different we conclude that there is a present strong feeling of Deja vu.

Purpose - The study sought to examine the liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets before the global financial crisis in 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The window of observation covered the period January 2000 to September 2008. In order to ensure robustness in the estimation, the study used foreign participation in the various markets as an additional measure of liquidity. The other liquidity measures considered in the study were volume and value traded of the various securities respectively. Time series modeling techniques were used in the estimation. An unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated following which the standard innovation accounting techniques, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions were applied. In the empirical analysis, the Granger-causality between the two markets was also used. Findings - While all the liquidity measures suggest the existence of linkages between the bond and equity markets, the direction of causality was found to be unidirectional from equity to the bond market using the volume and value measures. On the other hand, the foreign participation measure of liquidity suggests bi-directional causality. The study also provides evidence of long run relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on one hand and liquidity in the debt and equity markets on the other. As empirical findings indicates that the linkages in liquidity between these markets positive, this consistent with studies conducted by Chordia et al (2003 & 2005) and Engsted and Tanggaard (2000) who found the relationship was a positive one. When volumes of trade and trade values, the study find evidence on uni-directional causality and strong bi-directional causality is evidence when foreign investor participation is used as a liquidity measure. In summary, there is a strong evidence liquidity linkage between the bond and equity market from the empirical results.

The thesis is dealing with currency crisis phenomenon and its explanation within the wider framework of theoretical economics. It contains an analysis of present "mainstream" understanding of the currency crisis, an outline to the approaches to its modelling and also a brief historical overwiev. This thesis uses an analysis and also an application of relevant theories of L.Mises and J.M.Keynes to achieve its main objective. Finally it comes to the integration of currency crisis into the context of general economic course of events.

The main intention of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms of the protection of civilians in the context of humanitarian crises. The first part provides theoretical definition of the protection of civilians and its legal underpinnings. The roles of individual actors such as the state and its agencies, UN peacekeeping missions, cluster system, non govermental organisations and civil society itself are being defined. The paper futher focuses on the prevention in humanitarian crises, especially on the principles of peacekeeping, human security and gender. The second part consists of a case study of Haiti in the context of the 2010 devastating earthquake and the ensuing humanitarian crisis. First it discusses the impact of the earthquake on the infrastructure, environment, government, economy and education as well as its consequences for the civilians themselves. The impact of the earthquake is compared with the priorities of the state, as seen after the earthquake. Response to the earthquake is cathegorized as national and international, each of which has its specific characteristics and is based on different prior and post disaster conditions. Specific groups of civilians - minors and civilians affected by gender violence- are focused on .The protection of civilians in the specific areas is also addressed - namely duringthe cyclone Thomas, in the IDP camps and in the area struck by the cholera epidemics. The work culminates in the research which consists of three parts - a questionnaire for NGOs, civilians and government officials.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / This paper studies the efficacy of bank bailouts in restoring financial stability during financial crises. Stability is measured in terms of stock market volatility. The volatility dynamics associated with banking crises in South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States (US) are investigated. Using daily returns data from 1 January 1997 to 8 October 2012, two specific methods are used to measure the impact of bailouts on financial stability. Firstly, dummy variables that account for the timing of bailout policies are included in the variance equation of Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Hetereoskedasticity (EGARCH) models that are estimated for the overall stock market index of each of the affected countries. Secondly, EGARCH models are estimated using 30-day rolling windows in order to control for shifts in unconditional volatility that may result from bailouts. The Spearman Rank-Order correlation test is used to assess the rank-order relationship between the EGARCH 30-day rolling window conditional volatility and actual volatility, which is estimated as a 30-day moving average of squared returns. Three main findings form the conclusion of this study. The first is that, in some cases, bailouts are successful in reducing volatility in some of the East Asian and US stock markets. Secondly, although the creation of centralised asset management companies and the implementation of guarantees of liabilities as bailout policies are effective at reducing volatility in the East Asian markets, closures of, and interventions in, banks and other financial institutions, liquidity support, and capital support are not effective in reducing volatility in the East Asian markets. This illustrates that different bailout policies have different impacts on volatility. Finally, although bailout policies reduce volatility, liquidity support, and capital support, bailout policies are more effective at reducing volatility in the United States than in the East Asian countries. This illustrates that the same bailout policies cannot be used in different types of economies, namely developed and developing economies, with the hope of the same outcome being realized.

The financial crises experienced worldwide have contributed to the rising importance of corporate governance. South Africa is unique in that it has strong corporate governance structures and as a result, it would prove useful to assess the effects of these corporate governance structures on critical sectors such as the long-term insurance industry, which is the largest insurance industry in Africa. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of corporate governance mechanisms and firm efficiency in the South African long-term insurance industry using data on 73 long-term insurers from 2007 to 2014 in a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, firm efficiency is estimated using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) bootstrapping technique of Simar and Wilson (2007), which corrects for biases associated with non-parametric techniques. In the second stage analysis, the truncated bootstrapping regression technique is employed to examine the effect of corporate governance on the estimated efficiency scores. The corporate governance variables used were board size, board independence, audit committee size, CEO tenure and audit independence, while controlling for firm size, reinsurance usage and leverage. The findings indicate that long-term insurers in South Africa operated at approximately 21% of their optimal capacity which suggests high levels of inefficiency in the provision of life insurance services. The results of the second-stage analysis identify board size, non-executive directorship, CEO tenure and audit independence as the significant corporate governance indicators that impact on efficiency over the study period. In addition, firm size, reinsurance usage and leverage were also observed to be significantly related to the estimated efficiency scores. The findings suggest that non-executive directors are not as effective as expected, which may be due to a myriad of reasons, such as under-representation on sub-committees, a lack of relevant skills, experience or financial expertise. Insurers should use more stringent criteria to screen potential non-executive directors and provide training and regular updates to adequately capacitate the non-executive directors with the necessary skills and knowledge. The positive relationship between CEO tenure and efficiency suggests that frequent CEO rotation is not advisable. Most of the corporate governance indicators have a negative effect on efficiency, which is not the intended effect. This is an indication that corporate governance measures should not be viii enforced on insurers as a 'one size fits all’ measure, rather, a focus should be placed on corporate governance measures that have the intended impact, such as audit committee independence.