所謂「預測」，是建立在對特定事物認識的基礎上所做出的預估，而預測的準確與否關鍵即在於預測者對資訊的掌握程度。長久以來，由於未來一直是人類亟欲征服與掌握的目標，因此預測也成為一普遍存在的行徑。有別傳統預測方法的諸多限制，「預測市場」藉由網路參與者主動參與價格為訊息加總等特色，可以更全面的涵蓋不同來源的資訊並進一步轉換為一個量化的指標，以達到更準確的預測。本研究藉由「未來事件交易所」中兩岸相關協議的個案分析，發現市場在預測的過程當中，價格除了藉由公開資訊的反映出來以外，其中亦包含了大量私人資訊的反映，兩者反映所有資訊次數的比例大致維持著4：6的關係，而這結果也代表了在兩岸議題當中資訊並未大幅被揭露，欲準確預測事件的結果仍須多方仰賴私人資訊的貢獻。此外，根據個案分析的結果，本研究也發現兩岸協議確實適用於兩岸議題的應用。 / Prediction is an anticipation based on specific events. The key point of correct prediction depends on the level controlled by predictors. For a long time, future has been a target for human to control and overcome. Thus, prediction becomes a way to explore future events. “Prediction markets” is different from traditional way. It gets rid of many restrictions. It transfers all diverse information from participators into a quantification index to predict more correctly. This research analyzed by Cross-Strait Agreements on Xfuture.com finds that market price is reflected by not only public information but also private information. The ratio of public information to private information is 4 to 6. The result indicates that information is not disclosed completely in Cross-Strait Agreements. By solving this problem, we should use private information to predict more precisely. Furthermore, Cross-Strait Agreements certainly applies to Cross-Strait Affairs according to this paper.

自兩岸於1987年開放探親以來，隨著兩岸頻繁的交流，跨兩岸性的犯罪活動，如販毒、詐欺、人口販運等犯罪亦日趨嚴重，特別是近年來出現有別於以往傳統詐騙手法的新型態詐欺犯罪—以電話、網路為中介物的「電信詐欺犯罪」，大肆橫行於兩岸，為害兩岸治安最深，是類犯罪不斷翻新手法，巧藉各種名目詐騙民眾獲取不法暴利，造成極嚴重的社會成本付出。過去，兩岸共同打擊犯罪機制，僅有「金門協議」及其他非正式管道，以為合作打擊犯罪的依據，因「金門協議」的內涵不足致使成果有限。隨著政治氛圍的改變，兩岸終於2009年4月簽署「海峽兩岸共同打擊犯罪及司法互助協議」，為兩岸共同打擊犯罪奠定了新里程碑，惟分析其內容並與「駐美國台北經濟文化代表處與美國在台協會間之刑事司法互助協定」比較，可以發現尚有許多問題亟待解決。本研究藉由分析現行兩岸共同打擊犯罪機制，並提出問題及建議，以強化兩岸共同打擊電信詐欺犯罪的力道。 / Since 1987 Taiwan and Mainland China allowed people visited opposite side, cross-strait crimes such as smuggling drugs, fraud and human trafficking have become more and more serious as both parts frequently contacting with each other. Recently, new type fraud which is different from traditional fraud spread around and critically damage social security, especially telecom fraud by telephone and internet being the mediators. By using multiform excuses, these kinds of crimes continuously renovate to cheat innocent people and obtain huge illegal money, so that they cause a great loss of social. In the past, there were only Kinmen Agreement and the other unofficial channel as the basis in the cross-strait crime-fighting mechanism. However, Kinmen Agreement was too narrowed its coverage to limited in its results. With the political atmosphere changes, each part finally signed “Cross-Strait Agreement on Joint Crime-Fighting and Judicial Mutual Assistance” in April, 2009. This is the new milestone of cross-strait crime-fighting cooperation mechanism. As analyzing it and comparing it with “Agreement on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters between the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office and the American Institute in Taiwan”, we found there are still some obstacles need to be resolved. This study offers some questions and advises in order to strengthen the cross-strait telecom fraud crime-fighting cooperation mechanism.