With the recent signing of an economic cooperation pact between Taiwan and China, crossstrait relations have entered a new era that could eventually make rapprochement a peaceful process. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which is a free trade agreement in substance if not in name, is initially aimed at normalizing cross-strait economic relations, though it could further raise the issue of a possible freeze on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. After all, if Taipei and Beijing are actively working on burying the hatchet, should the United States change its long-standing policy of providing weapons to Taiwan? Recall that the U.S. government’s decision to sell more than US$6 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan earlier this year set off furious reprisals from Chinese authorities who summoned the U.S. ambassador and defense attaché in China and threatened to punish U.S. companies that make and sell weapons to Taiwan.

none / The thesis researches on the nature of the Taiwan’s mainland policy, particularly under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou. The most important concern of the thesis is the problem of Taiwan’s response towards rising China. First, the balancing-bandwagoning concept of Stephen Walt is researched. Critique of the concept and alternative theories are also considered. Second, the balancing-bandwagoning hypothesis is applied towards the past and present of Taiwan’s mainland policy. The test of Walt’s hypothesis reveals its weaknesses and limitations as a research framework. Despite predictions of Walt, Taiwan doesn’t use pure balancing or pure bandwagoning in its approach towards China but rather applies mixed strategy containing elements of both balancing and bandwagoning. Taiwan’s mainland policy evolves and includes more and more elements of the bandwagoning preserving the essential opportunities for the balancing. This strategy can be called hedging. Third, the thesis develops the concept of hedging and researches on the nature of Taiwan’s hedging strategy. The current mainland policy of Taiwan is a combination of opportunity-seeking and risk-aversion. The changes and continuities in Taiwan’s mainland policy founded and the reasons for the transformation of the Taiwan’s mainland policy also established. The thesis also gives tentative predictions on the future of the Taiwan’s strategy towards rising China as well.

本文研究動機緣於台灣早期的「反共必勝、暴政必亡」到廿世紀晚期的「中國崩潰論」，其預測及論述與現實的「中國崛起論」並不相符，且對緩解「台海衝突論」毫無意義。社會科學研究總是反應時代現實，因此本文的研究目的是理論層面的探討以及時代精神的反省。本文以辜汪會談為切入點並研究九○年代以來「台海衝突論」的癥結「一個中國爭議」，論述台灣政策氛圍的集體心態調整與柔水哲學的生存觀點。本文探討兩岸潛在衝突性的解決之道並理性化台灣的最大國家利益。本文理論基礎的「柔水哲學/Habeeb理論」的實質內涵有兩層，一是集體心態上的不與強國爭勝，寧願「裡子」甚於「面子」或「裡子」與「面子」的平衡，二是政策面向的彈性與柔軟，總括其為柔性策略或彈性策略的中心概念。這在突顯其與九○年代以來，台灣面對兩岸關係的僵持無解與「鎖國心態」形成兩者之間在理念上的鮮明對比。本章以三個節項（本文結論的型模分析、柔水哲學/Habeeb理論的理念闡述、理論主張檢驗）來鋪陳本文結論與相關論述。 / This dissertation mainly study Cross-strait relation of Taiwan.When Taiwan faces rising-China,it may renew the thinking,policy and collective spirit against the old one that is a survival way for Taiwan.So, this dissertation assert Taiwan may assume some soft-power and soft manner to deal rising-China.For the purpose of survival way of Taiwan,this dissertation address a case-study to research the resolution of conflict existed Cross-strait presently.In fact,Cross-strait conflict mainly result from one-China dispute.So,the survival way for Taiwan mainly strive the issue of one-China.Under the context of that spirit,Taiwan may develop some strategies and adapt attitude for accommodation the rising-China.Along the approach of case-study,this dissertation discourse the negotiation strategy in Koo-Wang talk in 1993.Additionally,soft-power and soft manner for Taiwan to treat China is a normative prescription so that this dissertation develop some statements compatible the principle of one-China.That must be a new norm for Taiwan in the new era.

2007年6月，與我建交長達60年以上之中美洲國家哥斯大黎加（Costa Rica）驟然宣佈與中國大陸建交，當時各界開始擔憂，台灣過去在中美洲頗為自豪之完整外交版圖在缺少了一角後，是否將發生骨牌效應？雖然事後證明此種疑慮並未成真，但已引起各界對我國維繫邦交成效之討論，也成為筆者之研究動機。 本文研究方法係針對傳統戰略三角分析途徑之侷限，提出改良式三邊關係分析模型，用以研究2000年至2008年期間台灣、中國大陸及中美洲友邦三邊關係。本研究目的有三，第一、界定台灣在此時期三邊關係中之地位優劣及導因，分析台灣在維繫邦交之優勢、劣勢、機會與挑戰。第二、藉由分析我國在三邊關係中之優勢及劣勢，進而提出提升地位及鞏固邦交之策略建議。第三、在研究方法層次，嘗試建構一套合理之三角關係分析途徑，設計出更合理且適用性更高之研究途徑。