Resumo: O estudo aborda as teorias de conta corrente aplicadas aos países em desenvolvimento para o período da década de noventa. O objetivo é analisar as diferentes perspectivas teóricas do pensamento econômico dominante (mainstream) e alternativo e verificar a sua adequação ao comportamento da conta corrente do Brasil ao longo da década de noventa. As teorias do mainstream dirigem sua atenção à questão da sustentabilidade da conta corrente, enquanto as teorias alternativas enfatizam a restrição externa ao crescimento causada pelo desequilíbrio em transações correntes. As teorias são avaliadas com base em dois critérios. O primeiro consiste em discutir os resultados obtidos por estudos aplicados ao Brasil. O segundo critério, a contribuição original do presente estudo, consiste em oferecer evidência empírica adicional com base em indicadores selecionados e definidos de acordo com cada vertente teórica. A conclusão é que os estudos alternativos constituem o referencial teórico mais adequado para avaliar os desequilíbrios em conta corrente do Brasil nos anos noventa. / Abstract: The study approaches the theories of current account applied to developing countries for the nineties. The aim of the study is to examine the differing theoretical perspectives of the mainstream and alternative economics and to assess their consistency with the Brazilian current account performance in the nineties. The main issue addressed by the mainstream theories is the sustainability of current account, while the alternative theories emphasize the external restriction to domestic growth caused by current account imbalances. The assessment of the theories is based on two criteria. The first one consists of discussing the outcomes of studies applied to Brazil. The second one, the original contribution of the current study, consists of providing additional empirical evidence based on selected indicators defined according to each theoretical approach. The conclusion is that the alternative studies provide the most adequate theoretical approach to assess the Brazilian current account imbalances of the nineties. / Orientador: Luciana Togeiro de Almeida / Coorientador: Mário Ferreira Presser / Banca: José Gabriel Porcile Meirelles / Banca: Carlos Alberto Cinquetti / Mestre

The aim of this paper is to investigate if a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is in China’s interest and whether or not a renminbi revaluation can contribute to correct the US current account deficit. For that purpose, advantages and disadvantages of a revaluation for China are discussed. Furthermore, the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are analysed to evaluate to what extent a renminbi revaluation can correct this imbalance. The discussion is based on previous research in this area. The main result is that a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is primarily beneficial for China. Additionally it is found that the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are domestic macroeconomic conditions and not China’s exchange rate policy. Nevertheless, a renminbi revaluation can help to support to correct the imbalance situation. As evidence is found that a revaluation is beneficial for China, it is further analysed how the revaluation should be practically obtained. The basic result is that the renminbi revaluation should be initiated by more exchange rate flexibility rather than by a one-step appreciation.

This bachelor thesis in economics examines the Asian financial crisis, the impact on the countries in the region and how well they recovered financially. The countries that are taken into consideration are Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.  The variables used to explain the implications of the crisis are GDP, trade openness, unemployment and current account. Descriptive statistics show that the most closed economy that was affected by a current account reversal was also the hardest hit in terms of GDP.  The statistics also show that all the countries under observation have recovered to their situation prior to the crisis in terms of GDP, but not in terms of the level of unemployment. Two regressions that were performed showed the relation between trade openness and the effect of GDP after the crisis, and the relation of trade openness to growth after the crisis. The regressions show that the more closed an economy is the larger the effect of a crisis. At the same time these countries had the highest growth rates after the crisis and were also among the first to recover. Theoretical reasons for these results are given.

This paper aims to explain the current account imbalances between the United States of America, Japan and China. According to theory, such imbalances should offset each other so that the international balance of payments account is zero. The study also tests the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) theory for the same sample of countries. The focus is on the empirics of the topic, therefore time-series analysis is used. The results suggest that American current account deficit can indeed be explained by the surpluses of the Japanese and Chinese current accounts. Furthermore, the conclusion regarding the UIP is that it simply does not hold in the real world. Finally, the main implication of this study is that the Asian countries will eventually buy up American assets if the trend of imbalances continues.

Trade deficit, financial deficit, and current account deficit of the United States have all been problems deeply concerned by economists and politicians in recent decades. Since the third season of 2000, a recession of the United States and the whole world has gradually started to appear. In addition, as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the war in Iraq the stock market has begun to decline significantly. In order to promote the recovery of its economy, the federal government determines to adopt the expanded financial policy which will most likely in the end cause its financial deficit more serious. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that influence the current account deficit of the United States. Because the study considers foreign variables that related researches ignore, we choose five variables as follows: regional output differential, regional interest rate differential, terms of trade, regional real effective exchange rate, and current account. Therefore, we adopt the Unit Root Test, the Granger Causality Test, the Co-integrating Test, and SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregressive) model to run RATS and E-views. It is the finding of empirical result that the United States government considers terms of trade and current account that can't be quantized of the first importance rather than the exchange rate factor that general research is thought. This is one of the contributions of the study.

none

<p>This bachelor thesis in economics examines the Asian financial crisis, the impact on the countries in the region and how well they recovered financially. The countries that are taken into consideration are Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.  The variables used to explain the implications of the crisis are GDP, trade openness, unemployment and current account.</p><p>Descriptive statistics show that the most closed economy that was affected by a current account reversal was also the hardest hit in terms of GDP.  The statistics also show that all the countries under observation have recovered to their situation prior to the crisis in terms of GDP, but not in terms of the level of unemployment.</p><p>Two regressions that were performed showed the relation between trade openness and the effect of GDP after the crisis, and the relation of trade openness to growth after the crisis. The regressions show that the more closed an economy is the larger the effect of a crisis. At the same time these countries had the highest growth rates after the crisis and were also among the first to recover. Theoretical reasons for these results are given.</p>

Bakalauro baigiamajame darbe nagrinėjamos einamosios sąskaitos nesubalansuotumą nagrinėjančios teorijos ir išskiriami einamajai sąskaitai įtakos turintys veiksniai. Darbe identifikuojamos einamosios sąskaitos saldo pasekmės šaliai bei apibrėžiami einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo vertinimo metodai teoriniu aspektu. Praktinėje dalyje vertinami Baltijos šalių einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo pokyčiai išskirtais santykiniais rodikliais bei kriterijais. Šių rodiklių ir kriterijų pagalba išskiriamos pagrindinės Baltijos šalių einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo problemos. Siekiant įvertinti einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumą vertinant jo poveikio ekonominiams rodikliams mastais atliekama koreliacinė regresinė poveikio ekonominiams rodikliams analizė. Darbe pateikiama einamosios sąskaitos ir BVP rodiklių prognozavimas 2010 ir 2011 metams pasitelkiant kokybinį prognozavimo metodą. / The theories, which explore current account imbalance, are analyzed and excluded the factors of main current account imbalance in bachelor work. In this work is identified sequence of country of current account imbalance and described current account imbalance evaluation in theoretical aspects. In the practice part with relative criteria and indicators is evaluating Baltic countries current account imbalance changes. These criteria and indicators help to distinguish main problems of Baltic countries, of current account imbalance acceptability. To assess the acceptability of the current account balance with respect to its impact on economic performance and scale correlation is carried out regression analysis of the impact of economic indicators. In the work there are giving the current account and GDP indicators forecasting years 2010 and 2011 using a qualitative forecasting method.

This study aims to analyze the determinants of the current account deficits for a broad samples of industrial and developing countries for the period 1984-2001. Using a dynamic panel data estimation procedure, we try to unfold the impact of several macro economic and institutional variables on current account deficits. In this context, we also examine the validity of Feldstein Horioka puzzle and its relevance to the current account imbalances. Results show that better governance, a more sophisticated financial system, relatively larger country size and deterioration in the terms of trade are associated with higher current account deficits. On the other hand, exchange rate regime flexibility, openness to foreign trade and depreciation of the real exchange rate lead to smaller current account deficits. We also find that the saving investment relationship is still considerably high both in the short run and in the long run.

<p>The aim of this paper is to investigate if a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is in China’s interest and whether or not a renminbi revaluation can contribute to correct the US current account deficit. For that purpose, advantages and disadvantages of a revaluation for China are discussed. Furthermore, the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are analysed to evaluate to what extent a renminbi revaluation can correct this imbalance. The discussion is based on previous research in this area. The main result is that a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is primarily beneficial for China. Additionally it is found that the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are domestic macroeconomic conditions and not China’s exchange rate policy. Nevertheless, a renminbi revaluation can help to support to correct the imbalance situation. As evidence is found that a revaluation is beneficial for China, it is further analysed how the revaluation should be practically obtained. The basic result is that the renminbi revaluation should be initiated by more exchange rate flexibility rather than by a one-step appreciation.</p>