A country’s economy is becoming more and more dynamic and complicated in its scale and mobility. So, the concerns of exchange rate economics have become more popular. My research interest is in international economics with its major factor, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. Chapter 1 presents a brief introduction of the three studies. Chapter Two investigate the role of exchange rate changes with particular attention to international capital flows. With liberalization of capital movements, international capital movements became free and unrestricted in many emerging market economies as well as developed countries. Using a Vector Auto-regressive (VAR) model for a small open economy in which the endogeneity of exchange rate changes is fully taken into account, I find that capital movements are more likely to be a cause of output fluctuations and current account deficits in developing countries than a channel of equilibrium changes. I also find that domestic currency depreciation is far more likely to be contractionary on domestic output in developing countries than in developed countries. Interestingly, the trade balance improves after depreciation regardless of its output consequence. These findings suggest that there are important differences between developed and developing economies in the way capital movements and exchange rate changes affect and are affected. Chapter Three demonstrates the dynamic relationship between the current account and the real exchange rate in response to permanent and temporary shocks using structural VAR models for seven developed countries and five developing countries. Special focus is given to the issue of the stationarity of the current account. Capital flows are also included to capture external shocks as well as potential structural breaks due to financial liberalization. I find that the results for unit root tests for the current account are ambiguous. By testing two different VAR models, each taking an opposing stance on the stationarity of the current account, I conclude that responses based on a stationary current account are a better fit to the current theoretical view than those based on a nonstationary current account process. Additionally, the real exchange rate and the current account are positively correlated under a permanent shock while two variables are negatively correlated under a monetary shock. I also find that real exchange rate is an endogenous variable, which is not closely related to the temporary factors that affect the current account in the short run. Chapter Four examines the long-run mean reverting behavior of the real exchange rates with its six different definitions for 27 economies using annual data from 1974 to 2003. I find that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds better, and the half-life of the real exchange rates is shorter when the wholesale price index, rather than consumer price index, is used as price level measure. Somewhat surprisingly, there is no evidence that PPP holds better with trade-weighted real exchange rates than with bilateral ones regardless of the price index used. Strong evidence for PPP emerges only with the use of Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003) panel tests but not with the Levine, Lin, and Chu (2002).

This study investigates the effects of an anticipated inflation targeting in a small open economy based on the framework of Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006) with cash-in-advance constraints. It is shown that the steady-state effects of a permanent increase in the inflation rate on capital accumulation, labor and current account are consistent with the results in Mansoorian and Mohsin (2006). However, there is an ambiguous change in consumption depending on the relationship between consumption and labor in the utility function. If consumption and labor is with a large degree of substitution, consumption may rise. Moreover, there is an impact decrease in the shadow price of investment when the policy of targeting a higher inflation rate announces, and the degree of such decrease is inversely related to the time length between the announcement and the realization of policy. Prior to the execution of the policy, the capital stock decumulates and the current account may go through a deficit or surplus first and then deficit along the unstable trajectories depending on the relative impact between the change in the shadow price of investment and the shadow price of assets on the locus where the current account maintains in equilibrium. After the implementation of a higher inflation targeting policy, the capital stock continues to decumulate and the current account accumulates along the stable paths toward the new equilibrium. In addition, the relationship between consumption and labor also influences the dynamic movements of the shadow price of investment.

Izgorodin, A, valstybės fiskalinė politika Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos deficitui sumažinti: bakalauro baigiamasis darbas: ekonomika. Vilnius, ISM Vadybos ir ekonomikos universitetas, 2009. Šio darbo tikslas yra pasiūlyti fiskalinės politikos priemones Lietuvos ESD sumažinti. Darbe siekiama išanalizuoti Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos komponentų kitimą laikui bėgant, nustatyti, ar ESD Lietuvai yra problematiškas, atlikti regresinę analizę ir išsiaiškinti, kaip pasirinkti kintamieji įtakoja einamosios sąskaitos balansą. Darbo gale pasiūlomi konkrečių mokesčių dydžiai ir valstybės išlaidų kryptis, kurie padės pagerinti Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos balansą. Gauti rezultatai parodo, kad Lietuvos ESD didėjo dėl kelių priežasčių. Lietuvos ESD turėjo įtakos įstojimas į ES ir prasidėjęs vadinamasis „pasivijimo“ laikotarpis, kuris iš pradžių turėjo neigiamos įtakos ekonomikos dalyvių taupymo normai ir veiksniai, kilę šalies viduje, pvz. perdėtas ekonomikos dalyvių optimizmas, sparčiai augantis darbo užmokestis, mažėjantis nedarbas, pigios ir lengvai prieinamos paskolos, neefektyvios vietinės ir tiesioginės užsienio investicijos, (kurios buvo nukreiptos į pajėgumų didinimą, vartojimo didinimą ir kitų trumpalaikių ekonominių problemų sprendimui vietoj to, kad paspartintų pramonės vystymąsi ir padidintų šalies eksporto konkurencingumą), didelė infliacija ir kt. Minėtos priežastys skatino importą ir ribotojo eksporto augimą, o didelis šalies patrauklumas užsienio investuotojų akyse tik... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Izgorodin, A. Government's Fiscal Policy Measures to Reduce Current Account Deficit in Lithuania: bachelor thesis, Economics. Vilnius, ISM University of Management and Economics, 2009. The goal of this work is to suggest the fiscal measures that the government can use in order to reduce the Lithuanian current account deficit (CAD). In this work I analyze how different components of Lithuanian current account have performed in time. In addition to this, I will determine, whether Lithuanian CAD is problematic and dangerous for the country. Moreover, I will perform regression analysis in order to find out how different variables have affected the current account balance of the country. Lastly, I will suggest tax rates and the direction of government spending that should be used in order to reduce the CAD in Lithuania. Results show that Lithuanian CAD is a consequence of several factors. Firstly, one of the causes of CAD in Lithuania is the so-called catch-up period which started after Lithuania has joined the EU. At first the catch-up process had a negative effect on the current account balance through low savings rate. In addition to this, factors inside the country have also contributed to CAD. The factors, among others, include over optimism of business and consumers, increasing salaries, decreasing unemployment, cheap and easily accessible loans, inefficient investments both within the country and from abroad (FDI), which were largely directed towards increasing of the... [to full text]

This paper investigates the relationship between countries' fiscal balances and current accounts with an emphasis on the role of fiscal rules. The direct effect of fiscal policy on the current account via aggregate (import) demand is potentially amplified by indirect effects, materializing through interest rate effects and inter-generational transfers that reduce savings. On the other hand, the implied positive relation between fiscal and external balances is potentially attenuated by offsetting changes in savings through Ricardian equivalence considerations. We expect this attenuation effect to be stronger in countries with more stringent fiscal rules and test this hypothesis using a panel of 73 countries over the period 1985-2012. As previous studies we find a positive effect of fiscal balances on the current account, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis. However, the effect of fiscal balances on the current account depends on the stringency of fiscal (budget balance or debt) rules in place; it is reduced by one third on average and virtually eliminated for countries with the most stringent fiscal rules. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Current Account Contract The thesis focuses on the matter of a current account. The aim of the thesis is an excursion to the previous legislation, but primarily an analysis of the current applicable and effective legislation of the Czech Republic. The main goal is a comparison of the regulation of a curent account in the Commercial Code with the regulation in the "Payment System Act", since this act brought significant changes to the adjustment of payment systems. The thesis is divided into ten chapters. The first two chapters provide a general introduction of a current account and describes the importance of a current account in an everyday life. Chapter Three presents general legal characteristic of the Current Account Agreement according to the applicable and effective legislation at the moment of thesis handover and also contains the evolution of the related legislation. Chapter Four is dedicated to the subjects of the Current Account Agreement. This chapter offers a comprehensive view on the subject from the perspective of the Commercial Code and the Payment System Act as well. Chapter Five discusses the requirements of a current account. First subchapter contains obligatory requirements, second subchapter consists of facultative requirements, mainly according to the Commercial Code. Chapter...

This thesis employs two new approaches to explain some of the important debates in two key economic fields: labour market economics and macroeconomic studies related to current account imbalances. Chapter 1, Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 begin a new strand of research by introducing the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution to describe unobserved heterogeneity in the labour market. The NIG distribution can be represented as a normal variance-mean mixture with the inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution as the mixing distribution. A 0.01% subsample of the 1980 US Census, comprising all men between 18 and 65 who are in the labour force, as well as a comparable sample from Ghana, is used to show that the NIG distribution provides a better fit of the log earnings function than the normal distribution. The prediction of right skewness of the log earnings distribution arising from the log normal skill Roy selection model is rejected in favour of left skewness. The thesis then extends the model to describe the distribution of log earnings conditioned on education. The same two datasets (US males and Ghanaian males) are used for the empirical analysis. We find that, once the unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the return to education is almost flat for lower levels of education in Ghana, and then increases for education levels greater than ten years. One of the key differences between the two datasets is that skewness and unobserved heterogeneity is a function of education for Ghana but not for the US. The NIG framework is found to be a useful tool to model this heterogeneity. Chapter 4 uses a model that allows for a rich structure of age effects similar to those predicted by the life cycle theories to argue that the demographic shifts are partly responsible for the sustained rise in the US current account deficit and the rapid increase in China's current account surplus in the last decade. However, demographics do not have an impact on the long run equilibrium or level of current accounts. Rather, they are important determinants of the short run adjustment of current accounts to their equilibrium levels. In the next twenty years, the demographic shifts are likely to push towards further current account positive adjustments in China and current account negative adjustments in the US. Developing the infrastructure, financial markets, policy tools and regulatory settings to be able to cope with the excess capital flow remains an urgent task.

This thesis deals with global imbalances in the world economy. Chapter one focuses on balance of payments theory, savings and investment. It also specifies global imbalances and presents the most important periods of their development. Chapter two analyses main causes of global imbalances and discusses the relationship between imbalances and current economic crisis. Chapter three describes current development of global imbalances, anticipated development in future and analyses possible solutions at national and international level.

The aim of this thesis is to find a reason why the US current account is in deficit, which is in contradiction of theoretical expectation. Prevailing discusion is about savings glut and defects in monetary policy. In our opinion both sides ignore China`s rising influence and real exchange rate. Balassa-Samuelson`s effect predict real exchange rate appreciation in converging economies, as long as their real GDP grows. Analysis of real exchange rate of Renminbi shows contradiction with Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is attributed to conditions on Chinese labour market. Chinese internal imbalance has impacts on global economy and nonappreciating real exchange rate of Renminbi deforming international trade is one of the factors that causes US current account deficit.

The basic aim of this thesis was to evaluate the profitability of current accounts offered by the five largest Czech banks. In this context it was proposing to create such an evaluation device, which is sufficiently versatile and reusable. After a thorough examination of the general principles of decision-making theory and the basic characteristics and instruments of current accounts has been developed appropriate analytical base for follow-up of the work. In the analytical part proved very useful hierarchy of objectives and criteria, as well as the use of exact methods for determining weights of criteria and selecting the appropriate option. For determining the weights of the criteria were used point scale method, preferential ranking method, the method of paired comparisons, Saaty's method and compensation method. For the selection of variants were used multicriteria utility functions, Saaty's method and compensation method.

Le système monétaire international articulé autour d'une monnaie cœur et de monnaies périphériques évoluant dans des régimes de change différents s'avère intrinsèquement instable et a favorisé la hausse des déséquilibres de comptes courants et la crise financière de 2007. La littérature traitant des comportements d'épargne laisse présager d'une reprise de ces déséquilibres et des risques qui en découlent. Afin de rechercher des voies de stabilisation politiquement réalisables, nous avons évalué les taux de change d'équilibre des pays les plus impliqués dans les déséquilibres par une approche positive afin d'obtenir des résultats acceptables par les responsables politiques. Notre travail montre que le taux de change n'a joué qu'un rôle modéré dans le développement des déséquilibres et la littérature montre qu'il n'a joué qu'un faible rôle dans leur ajustement.Par ailleurs, les politiques monétaires accommodantes mises en place suite à la crise économique font peser des risques sur la stabilité financière. Compte tenu de la multiplicité des régimes de change et de la difficulté de prévoir et de maitriser les variations des taux de change, les risques liés aux déséquilibres de comptes courants et à l'instabilité financière nécessitent d'être appréhendés par d'autres voies d'ajustement que celles du taux de change. Nous montrons la faisabilité de zones monétaires permettant l'applicabilité de politiques monétaires appropriées en cas d'asynchronisme des cycles économiques favorisant la mise en place de politiques budgétaires à la fois appropriées pour limiter la reprise de déséquilibres mais également contracycliques. / The International Monetary System built around a core currency, the US dollar and peripheral currencies working in various exchange rate regimes appears inherently unstable and has fostered the rise of global current account imbalances and the financial crisis in 2007. The literature on changes in savings behavior suggests a resumption of these imbalances and associated risks. Their partial adjustment would therefore only be cyclical, resulting from the economic crisis in 2008.In view of looking for politically achievable ways to stabilize imbalances, we evaluated the equilibrium exchange rate of the countries or regions most involved in the imbalances by a positive approach to achieve results acceptable by policymakers. Our work shows that the exchange rate has played a moderate role in the development of imbalances and recent literature suggests that it played only a minor role in their adjustment.Moreover, accommodative monetary policies implemented after the economic crisis constitute risks to financial stability. Given the multiplicity of exchange rate regimes and the difficulty to forecast and manage the changes in exchange rates, risks related to global current account imbalances and financial instability need to be tackled by other channels of adjustment than the exchange rate. Our work therefore concerns, in theory but also pragmatically, options that could both reduce the risk of financial instability and that of the resumption of global current account imbalances. We show the feasibility of monetary zones allowing the implementation of appropriate monetary policies in case of asynchrony of economic and financial cycles. We conclude with the stabilizing ro