This paper aims to explain the current account imbalances between the United States of America, Japan and China. According to theory, such imbalances should offset each other so that the international balance of payments account is zero. The study also tests the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) theory for the same sample of countries. The focus is on the empirics of the topic, therefore time-series analysis is used. The results suggest that American current account deficit can indeed be explained by the surpluses of the Japanese and Chinese current accounts. Furthermore, the conclusion regarding the UIP is that it simply does not hold in the real world. Finally, the main implication of this study is that the Asian countries will eventually buy up American assets if the trend of imbalances continues.

The subject of this diploma thesis is the analysis of the importance and development of Chinese renminbi convertibility. The paper describes the development of the yuan exchange rate, whose value is still largely decided by the PBOC. It also seeks to identify the growing role of the renminbi on the international scene despite its financial account that is still not completely liberalized. Last but not least, the Chinese trilemma is described here, with the renminbi convertibility being an integral part of this issue. Once China decides to solve the trilemma, one of the possible outcomes is the full renminbi convertibility. The paper also tries to identify the possible impacts that would occur in the event of the full renminbi convertibility.

2008年發生全球金融危機，造成各國經濟大幅衰退。中國大陸於2009年開始積極推動人民幣國際化，希望降低對外貿易與跨境資本流動對美元的依賴程度。中國大陸雖有龐大的境外人民幣資金池，但由於欠缺人民幣回流管道，因而人民幣資金至今仍無法雙向流動。因此，中國大陸於2014年11月17日推動滬港通試點，建立滬港股票交易互聯互通機制，試行中國大陸金融帳開放成效，以作為日後擴大試點開放政策的參考。 本研究結果發現，經由滬港通試點試辦，改革中國大陸資本市場，可避免對中國大陸金融市場造成重大影響，實現人民幣跨境計價及結算功能，並建構良好的人民幣回流機制。 / The world economy declines substantially, influenced by the global financial crisis in 2008. In order to reduce the dependence of cross-border fund flows and foreign trades on the US dollar, the mainland China reinforces its efforts in promoting the Renminbi (RMB) internationalization in 2009. But, due to the capital control, the free fund flows of the RMB are not feasible even if there is a massive RMB pool worldwide. In order for the liberalization of financial account, the mainland China built Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect on November 17, 2014, as a reference of further expansion of the offshore use of the RMB in the future. This study shows that, reforms on China’s domestic capital market are crucial to avoid the significant impact of Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect, as the openness of capital account, on the domestic financial markets. The financial reforms can also improve the cross-border settlement functions of the RMB to increase RMB denomination in trades, and reinforce the freer flows of the RMB.

經濟失衡的議題在20世紀末受到注意，泛指先進國家與新興國家經常帳發展不對稱的情形，尤以美國經常帳赤字的惡化為核心。 由於經濟失衡的現象讓未來全球的經濟成長添加了變數，經濟失衡的原因即成為專家學者間熱烈討論的議題；其中以儲蓄和投資相關的討論最多。有不少學者認為導致全球經常帳失衡的原因是美國儲蓄太低且過度消費，中國為首等新興國家卻又過度儲蓄、投資不足。作者則認為英國、日本為融通美國經常帳赤字的重要來源；先進的小國（盧森堡、新加坡、南韓、比利時）集中投資美國也是造成美國鉅額經常帳赤字的主要原因之一。另外，隨著能源價格的飆漲，油元的勢力以及其對全球經濟失衡現象所造成的影響也不容小覷。 本文以貿易依存度的高低區分出「外貿型」與「內需型」的國家，並且觀察到國際間資金淨流動的方向大致符合以下的趨勢：「外貿型」的國家傾向融資「內需型」的國家；同時金融規模較小的國家融資金融規模較大的國家。另外，金融部門的規模也和跨國資金移動的規模有關。金融規模越大的國家，跨國移動的資金規模越龐大。針對以上的觀察，作者從資金的供給與需求以及金融部門的功能提出解釋。

Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjamas Lietuvos nacionalinis mokėjimo balansas, jo struktūra, reguliavimo metodai, plačiau nagrinėjama einamoji mokėjimo balanso sąskaita ir jos deficitas. Atliekama statistinių nacionalinio mokėjimų balanso duomenų analizė nuo 1998 iki 2007 metų. Vertinama mokėjimų balanso sąskaitų (einamosios, kapitalo, finansinės) tarpusavio priklausomybė bei nagrinėjamas ryšys visų mokėjimų balanso sąskaitų su BVP. Galiausiai atliekamas nacionalinio mokėjimų balanso prognozavimas slenkančio vidurkio bei ekponentinio išlyginimo metodai, kad galima būtų numatyti jo perspektyvas. Išnagrinėjus teorinius ir praktinius Lietuvos mokėjimo balanso bei einamosios sąskaitos aspektus, pateikiamos išvados ir siūlymai. / In this final master work under consideration are Lithuania national payments balance, its structure and regulation methods. Enlarge under consideration are current payments account and its deficit. Statistical national payments balance data analysis is executable from 1998 to 2007. Payments balance accounts (current, fund, financial) interdependence are well considered and relation common balance of payments account with GDP is pending in this work. At last national balance of payments prognostication is feasable in few methods to see its perspectives in future. After theoretical and practical aspects inspecting, finding and offering are proposed.

[pt] Motivados pela posição de destaque do real brasileiro entre uma das moedas mais depreciadas em relação aos seus pares emergentes em meados de 2020, potencialmente fomentada pela expressiva evasão de capitais observada no decorrer da pandemia COVID-19 que culminou com um déficit no mercado cambial, realizamos previsões um trimestre a frente para os fluxos de capitais líquidos para o Brasil através de técnicas de machine learning, utilizando modelos de regularização para seleção das variáveis importantes. Os fluxos são obtidos a partir de dados trimestrais do balanço de pagamentos, englobando 2004:T1 a 2021:T1. Os modelos propostos, tanto LASSO quanto adaLASSO + OLS, foram capazes de gerar previsões fora da amostra melhores que o modelo de benchmark, AR. Apesar disso, quando comparados entre si, não podemos rejeitar a hipótese nula de que os modelos propostos possuem a mesma precisão de previsão. / [en] Motivated by the prominent position of the Brazilian real among the most depreciated currencies in comparison with its emerging peers in mid-2020, potentially fueled by the significant capital outflow observed during the COVID19 pandemic that resulted in a deficit in the foreign exchange market, we make one quarter-ahead forecast for net capital flows to Brazil through machine learning techniques, using shrinkage methods to select important variables. These flows are computed from quarterly balance of payments data from 2004:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The proposed models, both LASSO and adaLASSO + OLS, were able to generate better out-of-sample forecasts than the benchmark model, AR. Nevertheless, when compared to each other, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the proposed models have the same forecast accuracy.