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North American Tree Bat (Genera: Lasiurus, Lasionycteris) Migration on the Mid-Atlantic Coast—Implications and Discussion for Current and Future Offshore Wind DevelopmentTrue, Michael C. 18 January 2022 (has links)
In eastern North America, "tree bats" (Genera: Lasiurus and Lasionycteris) are highly susceptible to collisions with wind energy turbines and are known to fly offshore during migration. This raises concern about ongoing expansion of offshore wind-energy development off the Atlantic Coast. Season, atmospheric conditions, and site-level characteristics such as local habitat features (e.g., forest coverage) have been shown to influence wind turbine collision rates by bats onshore, and similar features may be related to risk offshore. In response to rapidly developing offshore wind energy development, I assessed the factors affecting coastal and offshore presence of tree bats. I continuously gathered tree bat nightly occurrence data using stationary acoustic recorders on five structures (four lighthouses on barrier islands and one light tower offshore) off the coast of Virginia, USA, across all seasons, 2012–2019. I used generalized additive models to describe nightly tree bat occurrence in relation to multiple factors. I found that sites either indicated maternity or migratory patterns in their seasonal occurrence pattern that were associated with local roosting resources (i.e., presence of forest). Across all sites, nightly occurrence was negatively related to wind speed and positively related to temperature and visibility. Using predictive performance metrics, I concluded that the model was highly predictive for the Virginia coast. My findings were consistent with other studies—tree bat occurrence probability and presumed mortality risk to offshore wind-energy collisions is highest on nights with low wind speed, high temperature and visibility during spring and fall. The high predictive model performance I observed provides a basis for which managers, using a similar monitoring and modeling regime, could develop an effective curtailment-based mitigation strategy.
Although information at fixed points is helpful for managing specific sites, large questions remain on certain aspects of tree bat migration, in part because direct evidence (i.e., tracking of individuals) has been difficult to obtain so far. For instance, patterns in fall behavior such as the timing of migration events, the existence of migratory pathways, consistencies in the direction of travel, the drivers of over-water flight, and the activity states of residents (or bats in stopover) remain unstudied in the mid-Atlantic. The recently established Motus Wildlife Tracking System, an array of ground-based receiver stations, provides a new technique to track individual bats via the ability to detect course-scale movement paths of attached very high frequency radio-tags. To reveal patterns in migration, and to understand drivers of over-water flight, I captured and radio-tagged 115 eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis) and subsequently tracked their movements. For the bats with evidence of large movements, most traveled in a southwesterly direction whereby paths were often oriented interior toward the continental landmass rather than being oriented along the coastline. This observation challenges earlier held beliefs that bats closely follow linear landscape features, such as the coast, when migrating. I documented bats traveling across wide sections of the Chesapeake and Delaware bays confirming the species' ability to travel across large water bodies. This behavior typically occurred in the early hours of the night and during favorable flying conditions such as low wind speeds, warm temperatures, and/or during sudden increases in temperature associated with the passage of cold fronts. For bats engaging in site residency through the fall, the proportion of night-hours in which bats were in a resting state (and possibly torpor), increased with colder temperatures and the progression of the fall season. My study demonstrated that bats may be at risk to offshore wind turbine collisions off the mid-Atlantic, but that this risk might be minimal if most bats are migrating toward the interior landscape rather than following the coast. Nonetheless, if flight over large water bodies such as Chesapeake and Delaware bays is a viable proxy for over-ocean flight, then collision risk at offshore wind turbines may be somewhat linked to atmospheric, seasonal timing, or other effects, and therefore some level of predictable and manageable with mitigations options such as smart curtailment. / Master of Science / In eastern North America on the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts, a group of bat species named "tree bats" engage in seasonal migrations—generally shifting north in spring and south in fall. On the East coast, it is known that eastern red bats and silver-haired bats will occasionally fly over the ocean during these periods. Although this behavior is somewhat hard to explain due to their reliance on trees for day-time roosting, it raises concern conservation concerns due to the current and future rapid development of offshore wind energy turbines. This is compounded by the fact that collision rates with turbines are high for this species group in general and highest in the fall migratory season. The fall period is also when bats may be attracted to tall structures such as turbines and when most offshore flight happens. Nevertheless, bats are sensitive to atmospheric conditions such as temperature and wind speed, and other factors influence their propensity to fly (and be at risk to turbine strikes). So, understanding these drivers may aid in understanding the conditions that present the highest risk to strike at offshore wind turbines.
In response to rapid offshore wind development in the Atlantic, I recorded bats in coastal Virginia, USA from 2012–2019, using acoustic monitors—devices that collect the echolocation vocalizations of bats. I found that tree bat visitation offshore or on barrier islands was associated with wind speed, temperature, visibility, and seasonality. Using statistical modeling, I developed a predictive tool to assess occurrence probabilities at varying levels of wind speed, temperature, and seasonality. Probability of occurrence and therefore assumed risk to collision was highest on high temperature and visibility nights, low wind speed nights, and during the spring and fall seasons. Therefore, I suggest a similar modeling regime could be used to predict the occurrence of bats at offshore wind sites to inform potential mitigation efforts.
Next, I attempted to answer broader questions about tree bat migratory behavior such as attempting to identify migratory pathways throughout the mid-Atlantic. The Motus Wildlife Tracking System gives researchers the ability to directly track individuals over long-distances with radio-transmitters and ground-based receiver stations. Using Motus, I captured and radio-tagged >100 tree bats, which were of majority eastern red bats and tracked their movements throughout the mid-Atlantic region. I found that movements were not oriented along the coastline, which challenged previously held beliefs that bats use the coast during migration. Tree bats also traversed large bodies of water, the Chesapeake and Delaware bays, confirming the ability for this group to fly over-water. Through statistical modeling, I found that these over-water bouts were early in the night and related to advantageous flying conditions such as low wind speeds, high temperatures, and during periods of sudden temperature increase (which could be linked to the passage of cold weather fronts). Offshore collision risk to tree bats may be somewhat minimal if most bats orient inland, rather than coastal for their migration movement. Nevertheless, for those bats that do fly over the ocean, if crossing large waterbodies is a viable proxy for over-ocean movement, then this behavior is linked to multiple factors, of which can be used to predict occurrences and even potentially predict and manage risk to collision.
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Probabilistic modelling techniques and a robust design methodology for offshore wind farmsAli, Muhammad January 2012 (has links)
Wind power installations have seen a significant rise all over the world in the past decade. Further significant growth is expected in the future. The UK’s ambitions for offshore wind installations are reflected through Round 1, 2 and 3 projects. It is expected that Round 3 alone will add at least 25 GW of offshore wind generation into the system. Current research knowledge is mostly limited to smaller wind farms, the aim of this research is to improve offline and online modelling techniques for large offshore wind farms. A critical part of offline modelling is the design of the wind farm. Design of large wind farms particularly requires careful consideration as high capital costs are involved. This thesis develops a novel methodology which leads to a cost-effective and reliable design of an offshore wind farm. A new industrial-grade software tool is also developed during this research. The tool enables multiple offshore wind farm design options to be built and tested quickly with minimal effort using a Graphical User Interface (GUI). The GUI is designed to facilitate data input and presentation of the results. This thesis also develops an improved method to estimate a wind farm’s energy yield. Countries with large-scale penetration of wind farms often carry out wind energy curtailments. Prior knowledge of estimated energy curtailments from a wind farm can be advantageous to the wind farm owner. An original method to calculate potential wind energy curtailment is proposed. In order to perform wind energy curtailments a network operator needs to decide which turbines to shut down. This thesis develops a novel method to identify turbines inside a wind farm that should be prioritised for shut down and given priority when scheduling preventive maintenance of the wind farm. Once the wind farm has been built and connected to the network, it operates as part of a power system. Real-time online simulation techniques are gaining popularity among system operators. These techniques allow operators to carry out simulations using short-term forecasted wind conditions. A novel method is proposed to probabilistically estimate the power production of a wind farm in real-time, taking into account variation in wind speed and effects of turbulence inside the wind farm. Furthermore, a new probabilistic aggregation technique is proposed to establish a dynamic equivalent model of a wind farm. It determines the equivalent number and parameters of wind turbines that can be used to simulate the dynamic response of the wind farm throughout the year.
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Optimization and Control of Smart Renewable Energy SystemsAldaouab, Ibrahim January 2019 (has links)
No description available.
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Increasing the hosting capacity of distributed energy resources using storage and communication / Öka acceptansgränsen för förnyelsebaraenergikällor med hjälp av lagring och kommunikation i smarta elnätEtherden, Nicholas January 2012 (has links)
The use of electricity from Distributed Energy Resources like wind and solar powerwill impact the performance of the electricity network and this sets a limit to theamount of such renewables that can be connected. Investment in energy storage andcommunication technologies enables more renewables by operating the networkcloser to its limits. Electricity networks using such novel techniques are referred toas “Smart Grids”. Under favourable conditions the use of these techniques is analternative to traditional network planning like replacement of transformers orconstruction of new power line.The Hosting Capacity is an objective metric to determine the limit of an electricitynetwork to integrate new consumption or production. The goal is to create greatercomparability and transparency, thereby improving the factual base of discussionsbetween network operators and owners of Distributed Energy Resources on thequantity and type of generation that can be connected to a network. This thesisextends the Hosting Capacity method to the application of storage and curtailmentand develops additional metrics such as the Hosting Capacity Coefficient.The research shows how the different intermittency of renewables and consumptionaffect the Hosting Capacity. Several case studies using real production andconsumption measurements are presented. Focus is on how the permitted amountof renewables can be extended by means of storage, curtailment and advanceddistributed protection and control schemes. / Användningen av el från förnyelsebara energikällor som vind och sol kommer att påverka elnätet, som sätter en gräns för hur mycket distribuerad energiproduktion som kan anslutas. Investeringar i storskalig energilager och användning av modern kommunikationsteknologi gör det möjligt att öka andelen förnyelsebarenergi genom att nätet kan drivas närmare sina gränser. Elnät med sådana nya tekniker kallas ofta för ”Smarta Elnät". Implementering av sådana smarta elnät kan vara ett alternativ till traditionell nätplanering och åtgärder som utbyte av transformatorer eller konstruktion av nya kraftledningen.Nätets acceptansgräns är ett objektivt mått för att bestämma gränsen för nätets förmåga att integrera ny förbrukning eller produktion. Målet är att skapa större transparens och bidra till ett bättre faktaunderlag i diskussioner mellan nätoperatörer och ägare av distribuerade energiresurser. Denna avhandling utökar acceptansgränsmetoden för tillämpning med energilager och produktions nedstyrning och utvecklar ytterligare begrepp så som acceptansgränsen koefficienten.Forskningen visar hur varierbarheten hos olika förnyelsebara energikällor samverkar med förbrukningen och påverkar nätets acceptansgräns. Flera fallstudier från verkliga elnät och med uppmätt produktion och konsumtion presenteras. Fokus är på hur den tillåtna mängden förnyelsebara energikällor kan ökas med hjälp av energilagring, kontrollerad produktionsnedstyrning och med avancerad distribuerade skydd och kontroll applikationer. / Nicholas Etherden works at STRI AB (www.stri.se) in Gothenburg, Sweden. When he is not pursuing his half-time PhD studies he works as a specialist consultant in the field of Power Utility Automation, specialising on the IEC 61850 standard for power utility automation (today widely used in substations as well as some wind parks, hydro plants and DER and Smart Grid applications such as vehicle-to-grid integration). The author of this thesis received his Master of Science in Engineering Physics from Uppsala University 2000. Side tracks during his engineering studies included studies in theoretical philosophy, chemistry, ecology and environmental sciences as well as chairing the Swedish student committee of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and Worlds Affairs and later board member of the International Network of Engineers and of Scientists for Global Responsibility (INES) and chair of Swedish Scientists and Engineers Against Nuclear Arms. He has been a trainee at ABB in Västerås Sweden and spent six years as developer and team leader for the application development of a new relay protection family (ABB IED 670 series). In parallel to his professional work he studied power system engineering at Mälardalens University and travelled to all continents of the world. Since 2008 he is responsible for the STRI IEC 61850 Independent Interoperability Laboratory and a member of IEC Technical Committee 57 working group 10 "Power system communication and associated data models” and UCA/IEC 61850 User group testing subcommittee. He is co-author of IEC 61850-1 and main contributor to “Technical Report on Functional Test of IEC 61850 systems” and has held over 25 hands-on courses around the world on IEC 61850 “Communication networks and systems for power utility automation”. / SmartGrid Energilager
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Study on optimizing French wind farms bat curtailment plans: reducing production losses while protecting batsLeger, Clément January 2024 (has links)
This research delves into the complex interplay between wind turbine operations and bat conservation efforts, focusing on mitigating bat mortality caused by wind turbines in France. Despite comprehensive legal safeguards and conservation measures, bat fatalities remain a pressing concern, necessitating innovative solutions to reconcile environmental protection with energy production. The problem statement revolves around the challenge of optimising bat curtailment plans to minimise bat mortality while mitigating energy losses. With over 80% of bat species in France affected by wind turbine collisions, the urgency of this issue is underscored by the significant ecological implications and regulatory imperatives. Despite the existence of curtailment plans, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding their effectiveness and potential trade-offs. This problem warrants a Master’s thesis project due to its multifaceted nature and practical implications. It requires a nuanced understanding of bat behaviours, wind turbine operations, and regulatory frameworks, making it both intellectually stimulating and socially relevant. Previous efforts have largely focused on static curtailment plans, leaving room for exploration of dynamic approaches and optimisation strategies. The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a Power BI tool and key performance indicators (KPIs) to evaluate different curtailment plans. Through comparative analysis, insights are gained into the efficacy of static versus dynamic curtailment plans, as well as the influence of weather conditions, such as rain, on curtailment decisions. Additionally, sensitivityanalysis is conducted to identify the most influential parameters and optimise curtailment plans accordingly. The key results of this study demonstrate the superiority of dynamic curtailment plans in reducing energy losses while maintaining sufficient protection for bat activity (higher than the 90% protection rate required by law) compared to static approaches (50% reduction in losses over an entire curtailment season). Insights gleaned from sensitivity analysis highlight the critical parameters influencing energy losses, informing targeted modifications to curtailment plans. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of considering continuous variables, such as humidity, and site-specific factors, such as sunrise and sunset times, for more precise conservation strategies. The implications of this research extend beyond academia, informing policy-making and industry practices in wind energy and biodiversity conservation. By optimizing curtailment plans, stakeholders can achieve a balance between environmental protection and renewable energy generation, paving the way for sustainable development. Future research avenues include refining curtailment strategies based on continuous variables and conducting field studies to validate findings across diverse wind farm locations. / Denna forskning utforskar det komplexa samspel mellan vindkraftverkens drift och fladdermusbevarande insatser, med fokus på att mildra fladdermusdödlighet orsakad av vindkraftverk i Frankrike. Trots omfattande lagliga skydd och bevarandeåtgärder förblir fladdermusdödsfall ett påtagligt bekymmer, vilket kräver innovativa lösningar för att förena miljöskydd med energiproduktion. Problemformuleringen kretsar kring utmaningen att optimera fladdermusbegränsningsplaner för att minimera fladdermusdödlighet samtidigt som energiförluster mildras. Med över 80% av fladdermusarterna i Frankrike påverkade av kollisioner med vindkraftverk, understryks brådskan i detta ärende av dess betydande ekologiska konsekvenser och reglerande krav. Trots att begränsningsplaner existerar, finns det en brist på en heltäckande förståelse för deras effektivitet och potentiella avvägningar. Detta problem motiverar ett magisterprojekt på grund av dess mångfacetterade natur och praktiska konsekvenser. Det kräver en nyanserad förståelse för fladdermusars beteenden, vindkraftverks drift och reglerande ramar, vilket gör det både intellektuellt stimulerande och socialt relevant. Tidigare insatser har i stor utsträckning fokuserat på statiska begränsningsplaner och lämnat utrymme för utforskning av dynamiska tillvägagångssätt och optimeringsstrategier. Metoden som används i denna studie innefattar utvecklingen av ett Power BI-verktyg och nyckelprestationsindikatorer för att utvärdera olika begränsningsplaner. Genom jämförande analys får man insikter om effektiviteten hos statiska jämfört med dynamiska begränsningsplaner, samt påverkan av väderförhållanden, såsom regn, på begränsningsbeslut. Dessutom genomförs känslighetsanalys för att identifiera de mest inflytelserika parametrarna och optimera begränsningsplanerna därefter. De viktigaste resultaten av denna studie visar överlägsenheten hos dynamiska begränsningsplaner när det gäller att minska energiförluster samtidigt som tillräckligt skydd för fladdermusaktivitet bibehålls (högre än den 90% skyddsnivå som krävs enligt lag) jämfört med statiska metoder (50% minskning av förluster under en hel begränsningssäsong). Insikter från känslighetsanalysen belyser de kritiska parametrarna som påverkar energiförluster och ger vägledning för målinriktade modifieringar av begränsningsplaner. Dessutom betonar studien vikten av att beakta kontinuerliga variabler, såsom luftfuktighet, och platsspecifika faktorer, såsom soluppgångs- och solnedgångstider, för mer precisa bevarandestrategier. Denna forsknings betydelse sträcker sig bortom akademin och informerar beslutsfattande inom politik och branschpraxis inom vindenergi och biologisk mångfaldsbevarande. Genom att optimera begränsningsplaner kan intressenter uppnå en balans mellan miljöskydd och förnybar energiproduktion, vilket banar väg för hållbar utveckling. Framtida forskningsvägar inkluderar att förädla begränsningsstrategier baserade på kontinuerliga variabler och att genomföra fältstudier för att validera resultat på olika vindkraftsplatser.
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EXPLORING MARKET FORCES FOR TRANSMISSION EXPANSION AND GRID STORAGE INTEGRATION : A technical-economic thesis about variation moderators for intermittent renewable power generation in the developed country of Sweden and the developing country of ChinaEriksson, Pernilla, Sundell, Martin January 2015 (has links)
No description available.
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Vlastnické právo a jeho uplatňování v praxi / The Propriatary and it´s exercise in practiceMATOUŠKOVÁ, Jana January 2008 (has links)
How the theme of this diploma project says, this work deals with present law regulation concerned to property rights, its content, its preservation and restriction, ways of its acquirement, co-ownership and expropriation, regulation of neighbourhood law, negotiation of realty ownerships and record of this ownerships to real estate register.
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Increasing the hosting capacity of distributed energy resources using storage and communication / Öka acceptansgränsen för förnyelsebaraenergikällor med hjälp av lagring och kommunikation i smarta elnätEtherden, Nicholas January 2014 (has links)
This thesis develops methods to increase the amount of renewable energy sources that can be integrated into a power grid. The assessed methods include i) dynamic real-time assessment to enable the grid to be operated closer to its design limits; ii) energy storage and iii) coordinated control of distributed production units. Power grids using such novel techniques are referred to as “Smart Grids”. Under favourable conditions the use of these techniques is an alternative to traditional grid planning like replacement of transformers or construction of a new power line. Distributed Energy Resources like wind and solar power will impact the performance of the grid and this sets a limit to the amount of such renewables that can be integrated. The work develops the hosting capacity concept as an objective metric to quantify the ability of a power grid to integrate new production. Several case studies are presented using actual hourly production and consumption data. It is shown how the different variability of renewables and consumption affect the hosting capacity. The hosting capacity method is extended to the application of storage and curtailment. The goal is to create greater comparability and transparency, thereby improving the factual base of discussions between grid operators, electricity producers and other stakeholders on the amount and type of production that can be connected to a grid.Energy storage allows the consumption and production of electricity to be decoupled. This in turn allows electricity to be produced as the wind blows and the sun shines while consumed when required. Yet storage is expensive and the research defines when storage offers unique benefits not possible to achieve by other means. Focus is on comparison of storage to conventional and novel methods.As the number of distributed energy resources increase, their electronic converters need to provide services that help to keep the grid operating within its design criteria. The use of functionality from IEC Smart Grid standards, mainly IEC 61850, to coordinate the control and operation of these resources is demonstrated in a Research, Development and Demonstration site. The site contains wind, solar power, and battery storage together with the communication and control equipment expected in the future grids.Together storage, new communication schemes and grid control strategies allow for increased amounts of renewables into existing power grids, without unacceptable effects on users and grid performance. / Avhandlingen studerar hur existerande elnät kan ta emot mer produktion från förnyelsebara energikällor som vindkraft och solenergi. En metodik utvecklas för att objektivt kvantifiera mängden ny produktion som kan tas emot av ett nät. I flera fallstudier på verkliga nät utvärderas potentiella vinster med energilager, realtids gränser för nätets överföringsförmåga, och koordinerad kontroll av småskaliga energiresurser. De föreslagna lösningarna för lagring och kommunikation har verifierats experimentellt i en forskning, utveckling och demonstrationsanläggning i Ludvika. / Godkänd; 2014; Bibliografisk uppgift: Nicholas Etherden är industridoktorand på STRI AB i Göteborg. Vid sidan av doktoreringen har Nicholas varit aktiv som konsult inom kraftsystemsautomation och Smarta Elnät. Hans specialitet är IEC 61850 standarden för kommunikation inom elnät, vindkraftparker och distribuerad generering. Författaren har en civilingenjörsexamen i Teknisk fysik från Uppsala Universitet år 2000. Under studietiden läste han även kurser i kemi, miljökunskap och teoretisk filosofi. Han var under studietiden ordförande för Student Pugwash Sweden och ledamot International Network of Engineers and of Scientists for Global Responsibility (INES). Efter studietiden var han ordförande i Svenska Forskare och Ingenjörer mot Kärnvapen (FIMK). Han började sin professionella bana som trainee på ABB i Västerås där han spenderade sex år som utvecklare och grupp ledare för applikationsutvecklingen i ABB reläskydd. I parallell till arbete har han läst elkraft vid Mälardalenshögskola. År 2008 började han på STRI AB som ansvarig för dess IEC 61850 interoperabilitetslab. Han är på uppdrag av Svenska Kraftnät aktiv i ENTSO-E IEC 61850 specificeringsarbete och svensk representant i IEC tekniska kommitté 57, arbetsgrupp 10 som förvaltar IEC 61850 standarden. Han har hållit över 30 kurser i IEC 61850 standarden i fler än 10 länder.; 20140218 (niceth); Nedanstående person kommer att disputera för avläggande av teknologie doktorsexamen. Namn: Nicholas Etherden Ämne: Elkraftteknik/Electric Power Engineering Avhandling: Increasing the Hosting Capacity of Distributed Energy Resources Using Storage and Communication Opponent: Professor Joao A Peças Lopes, Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto, Portugal Ordförande: Professor Math Bollen, Avd för energivetenskap, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Luleå tekniska universitet Tid: Måndag den 24 mars 2014, kl 09.00 Plats: Hörsal A, Campus Skellefteå, Luleå tekniska universitet / SmartGrid Energilager
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台電需求面管理之經濟分析--用戶計劃性減少用電措施案例 / The economic analysis of Taipower’s demand-side management--The case of incentive plan for load curtailment program謝嘉豪 Unknown Date (has links)
過去電力事業為了滿足電力用戶之需求,對於新電源之開發不遺餘力。然而由於電力事業近年來在供給面規劃屢遭當地居民抗爭而受阻,因而晚近轉而強調用戶需求面之管理。
本文針對台電公司現行需求面管理之「用戶計劃性減少用電措施」四種方案進行研析。首先設定簡化條件,將四種方案予以模型化,利用經濟剩餘模型,進行邊際分析,探討台電公司提供優惠之折扣比例及電力的價格需求彈性如何參與用戶抑低容量以及消費者剩餘、生產者剩餘分配之效果。分析結果顯示:「計劃性(二)」抑低用戶負載容量最高,且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最多;「計劃性(一)」抑低用戶負載容量最低,且參與用戶之消費者剩餘最少。另一方面,若從電力公司之視角觀之,「計劃性(二)」之生產者剩餘最低,而「計劃性(一)」之生產者剩餘最高。
經濟剩餘模型分析中,由於未能充分考慮供需雙方之潛在成本與效益,因此實務上之解釋能力有其侷限之處。基於上述緣由,本文接著藉由成本效益分析,將方案實施之潛在成本與效益納入考量,分別從參與用戶之角度進行參與者檢定(Participant Cost Test, PCT)以及從電力公司之角度進行公用事業成本檢定(Utility Cost Test, UCT),以檢視不同方案在不同觀點下之績效表現。成本效益分析結果顯示:在PCT檢定下,「計劃性(四)」參與用戶之益本比最高,「計劃性(二)」參與用戶之益本比最低。而在UCT檢定下,「計劃性(一)」電力公司益本比最高,「計劃性(四)」電力公司益本比最低。將成本效益分析與經濟剩餘模型比較後可發現,用戶抑低容量高的方案對於電力公司而言未必最有利。
最後,為進一步探討關鍵變數變動造成不同方案間成本效益值之影響,因此進行敏感度分析。敏感度分析的結果顯示:若電力公司為吸引用戶而提高誘因,增加各方案給予用戶優惠折扣之比例,以參與用戶角度而言,「計劃性(四)」參與者檢定之益本比提高幅度最大;以電力公司角度而言,「計劃性(四)」公用事業成本檢定之益本比降低幅度最大。若電力公司提高參與用戶每次抑低用電負載之時數,以參與用戶角度而言,「計劃性(四)」參與者檢定之益本比降低幅度最大;以電力公司角度而言,「計劃性(四)」之公用事業成本檢定益本比提高幅度最大。 / In order to meet the users’ demand of electricity, the electric power utility spared no effort to develop the new power plant in the past. However, in recent years, the electric power utility have been hampered by local residents on supply-side planning, thus more emphasize is being put on users’ demand-side management(DSM).
This paper aims to analyze four projects of Taipower’s existing demand-side management of “incentive plan for customers’ scheduled load curtailment program”. First, we set several simplified conditions for modeling the projects. By using the economic surplus model and conducting the marginal analysis, the impact from the discount incentive provided by the utility and the elasticity of electricity price demand is explored-on participants’ load capacity reduction and the distribution of consumer surplus and producer surplus. The results of economic surplus model showed "project 2" curtails the maximum load capacity and with the highest consumer surplus; "project 1" curtails the minimum load capacity and with the lowest consumer surplus. On the other hand, in the Taipower's point of view, "project 2" provides with the lowest producer surplus while "project 1" gives the highest producer surplus.
In the economic surplus model, since the potential costs and benefit were not fully considered in both supply and demand sides, several limitations exist on this model. Based on the above reasons, we utilize the cost benefit analysis, taking the potential cost and benefit into account and conducting Participant Cost Test(PCT) from the participants’ perspective and Utility Cost Test(UCT)from the utility’s perspective to examine the performance under different 4 DSM projects in different point of view. The results of cost benefit analysis showed that in the PCT test, the "project 4" comes up with the highest benefit cost ratio while "project 2" has the lowest cost benefit ratio. In the UCT test, the "project 1" has the highest cost benefit ratio while "project 4" came with the lowest cost benefit ratio. Comparing the cost benefit analysis with the economic surplus model, we could find that the project with the most load capacity reduction may not be the most favorable project for the utility.
Finally, in order to further explore the key variables affecting the cost and benefit value in different projects, we simulated several scenarios for sensitivity analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that if the utility increases incentives to increase four projects’ ratio of discount for attracting participant, in the participants’ perspective, "project 4" would have the most changed rate of cost benefit ratio(increase); in the utility's perspective, "project 4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio(decrease). If the utility increases the load curtailment duration each time, in the participants’ perspective, "project4" would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio(decrease) ; in the utility’s perspective, " project4 " would have the highest adjusted rate of cost benefit ratio(increase).
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