This paper aims to evaluate merits of the Austrian business cycle theory in explaining the 2001-2009 business cycle in the US economy. The theory postulates that a monetary shock upsets equilibrium in the market for loanable funds and adversely influences coordination mechanisms of the economy. The structure of relative prices is distorted and resources are misallocated as a result. The economy follows an unsustainable investment trajectory inconsistent with the amount of available resources and with the consumer preferences. When the inconsistencies are revealed, some of the investments are liquidated and costly correction follows. After providing exposition of the theory and description of the US economy in 2001-2009, the theory is confronted with the data. Although some deviations are conceded, mainly in development of the labor market, analysis presented in the paper supports the Austrian business cycle theory as a solid theoretical tool for explanation of the economic development throughout the examined period. The theory exhibits its main strengths in accounting for development of relative prices and linking them to conditions in the market for loanable funds.

This paper investigates whether the inherent non-stationarity of macroeconomic time series is entirely due to a random walk or also to non-linear components. Applying the numerical tools of the analysis of dynamical systems to long time series for the US, we reject the hypothesis that these series are generated solely by a linear stochastic process. Contrary to the Real Business Cycle theory that attributes the irregular behavior of the system to exogenous random factors, we maintain that the fluctuations in the time series we examined cannot be explained only by means of external shocks plugged into linear autoregressive models. A dynamical and non-linear explanation may be useful for the double aim of describing and forecasting more accurately the evolution of the system. Linear growth models that find empirical verification on linear econometric analysis, are therefore seriously called in question. Conversely non-linear dynamical models may enable us to achieve a more complete information about economic phenomena from the same data sets used in the empirical analysis which are in support of Real Business Cycle Theory. We conclude that Real Business Cycle theory and more in general the unit root autoregressive models are an inadequate device for a satisfactory understanding of economic time series. A theoretical approach grounded on non-linear metric methods, may however allow to identify non-linear structures that endogenously generate fluctuations in macroeconomic time series. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

Studiens syfte är att besvara frågan vilka attribut som föranleder att kommuner uppger att de har bostadsbrist. Genom att betrakta svenska bostadsbristen ur historisk kontext ges en bild av vad tidigare erfarenheter inombostadsplaneringen kan bidra med till dagens utveckling. De tidigare utföranden som beprövats sätts i kontrast till dagens tillvägagångssätt som i hög utsträckning tillskrivs liberalisering av bostadsmarknaden sedan 1990-talet. Med Boverkets Bostadsmarknadsenkät 2021 har Sveriges kommuner uppgett huruvida de uppleverbostadsbrist eller inte. Med logistisk regressionsanalys svarar studien på i vilken utsträckning olika faktorer somtas upp kopplade till Life Cycle Theory påverkar skillnader i efterfrågan på bostäder kommunerna emellan. Teorin lyfter de olika stadierna i livet som ger upphov till hushållens skilda behov. Detta yrkar en förståelse för hushållens situation och att bostadsbristens räddning inte enbart ligger i uppförandet av nya bostäder. Resultatet visar på att det i högst grad är demografiska faktorer som kan förklara variationer i svenska kommuners tendens att uppge om de har bostadsbrist. Däremot kan ökad upplevd bostadsbrist främst tillskrivas befolkningstillväxten, ekonomiska- och byggnadsrelaterade faktorer.

Bakgrund: Beslutskompetensen som beskriver hur bra individer är på att fatta beslut, blir allt viktigare inom nationalekonomin och resultat från samtida forskning inom beteendeekonomi ifrågasätter neoklassiska nationalekonomiska teorier. Detta ihop med att allt fler personer i Sverige får en sämre ekonomisk levnadsstandard under pensionsåldern lade grunden till varför vi valde att isolera analysen till sambandet mellan det privata sparandet och beslutskompetensen hos en individ. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka och analysera sambandet mellan kompetensen i individers beslutsfattande och en individs långsiktiga sparande utifrån ett beteendeekonomiskt perspektiv. Metod: En tidigare studie inom beslutskompetensens område där studenter (n=200) var fokusgruppen, utförd av JEDI-Lab vid Linköpings Universitet låg till grund för den kvantitativa analys som gjordes med hjälp av regressioner i det ekonometriska programmet EViews. De resultat som vi erhöll användes sedan för att analysera sambandet mellan individers beslutskompetens och deras aktiva val att spara. Resultat: Beslutskompetensen visade sig inte ha någon statistisk inferens på sparbeteende hos individer. Dess underkategorier hade blandade negativa och positiva samband till sparbeteende. Alla kategorier utom hur man följer beslutsregler saknade statistiskt signifikanta resultat. Det tycks föreligga andra faktorer i ett sparbeteende än enbart en individs beslutskompetens, variabler som kön, självkontroll och den kortsiktiga diskonteringsräntan hos en individ har större betydelse för sparbeteende. Vi tror att resultaten kan vara påverkade av att den undersökta populationen var studenter och därmed reflekterar den yngre delen av den svenska befolkningen och inte befolkningen som helhet. Det finns mycket forskning kvar att göra, då beslutskompetens är ett relativt nytt område inom ekonomi och behöver vidareutvecklas för att kunna ge mer precisa svar om varför individer tar de ekonomiska beslut som de gör.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Thesis advisor: Matteo Iacoviello / The dissertation is composed by two chapters. In the first one, I study the role of credit constraints and incomplete markets in the short run transmission of monetary shocks, using the superneutrality result that would obtain from preference separability in the Sidrauski model under complete markets as a benchmark. I find that money demand heterogeneity stemming from binding credit constraints invalidates the superneutrality result. I show this result under two alternative settings. In a simple two agents model, with heterogeneity in the rates of time preference, whether positive shocks to the growth rate of money are expansionary or contractionary crucially depends on the transfer scheme adopted by the monetary authority to rebate seigniorage transfers: redistributional effects implied by symmetric lump-sum transfers are contractionary, while wealth-neutral transfers are expansionary. In a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, the approximate aggregation property fails to hold due to the high degree of heterogeneity of money demand and to the properties of the cross-sectional distribution of money holdings, suggesting the inadequacy of the representative agent assumption and the need for a more elaborate approximation of the wealth distribution to predict prices. In the second chapter, we propose a real business cycle model with labor and credit market frictions in which borrowing is conditional on employment status. Relative to a conventional set up, and as long as credit is valued positively, our model generates a non-standard labor/leisure trade off that induces job applicants to accept lower wages and firms to post more vacancies, ultimately increasing employment. A shock to the demand of durable goods, by increasing the collateral value, reduce the opportunity cost of working, and generates an increase in employment and output. The transmission of a financial shock that increases the loan to value ratio, is dampened by the costs, in terms of leisure, incurred by the borrowers. We show that this mechanism is able to generate the positive comovement between outstanding household debt and employment observed in the data, whereas a conventional model, in which employment status is irrelevant for obtaining credit, predicts a counterfactual negative comovement. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This paper provides support for the view that there should be a close link between inno-vation and export performance. In essence it is argued that successful exporting requires penetration of a market through an innovation process. For a small country like Sweden depending on production of knowledge intensive goods and product competition, to re-tain its international competitiveness, this notion is likely to hold true. Against this background an analysis aimed at testing to what extent Swedish export capacity can be determined by innovation is presented. In addition the factors perceived as influencing this capacity are identified and their relative importance is assessed. Specifically patent and R&D data are treated as the main proxies for innovation activity. Moreover the rela-tive export and innovation performance among the Swedish municipalities is analyzed. A spatial version of the product cycle model is introduced as it explicitly captures the process of innovation, relocation and export dynamics and forms a link to the succeed-ing theorizing. In particular it suggests that certain regions are more likely to be the lo-cation for innovative exporting firms due to advantageous intrinsic favorable attributes specific to these locations. In the specified model such attributes that are assumed to in-fluence export capacity in the Swedish municipalities are defined as local, intra- and in-terregional accessibility to research, average number of patents and density of employ-ment. Regression results suggest that accessibility to research from within the munici-pality exerts the principal effect on export and innovation capacity. Moreover the influ-ence of accessibility to industry R&D dominates over the university variable in both re-gressions, with total and per kilogram export value as dependents. In addition regional size exerts a rather strong positive effect on total export value.

Syftet med denna magisteruppsats är att studera huruvida en hög tillgänglighet till FoU vid företag respektive universitet genererar exporttillväxt. Denna tankegång grundar sig i produktcykelteorin varför även denna uppsats är en analys i dess validi-tet. Företag i en region som har stor tillgång till kunskap och forskning bör även vara i en frontposition inom export. Denna tillgänglighet har grupperats i forskning vi universitet och högskolor eller forskning inom företag. Därtill kan även denna till-gänglighet indelas vid dess geografiska lokalisering. På grund av data som använts vid analysen och dess komplexitet är resultaten troliga-re en indikation än exakta. Tillgängligheten är tveklöst av vikt för exporttillväxten men de olika underavdelningarna skiljer sig från varandra. Företagsforskning tycks påverka exporttillväxten positivt oavsett lokalisering. Därtill följer resultaten teorin eftersom den externa tillgängligheten till företagsforskningen har en betydligt större inverkan än den externa. Tillgängligheten till universitetsforskning ger de mest anmärkningsvärda resultaten. Utan en statistisk säkerhet kan endast en tendens utrönas. Universitetsforskningen ter sig svårare för företag att absorbera oavsett om den utförs inom regionen eller ex-ternt. Relationen mellan företag och universitet kan antas vara av dubbel natur där de å ena sidan påverkar varandra positivt samtidigt som de konkurrerar om samma ut-rymme i en region. / The purpose of this master thesis is to study whether a high accessibility to R&D performed by firms and universities respectively generate export growth. This sug-gestion is founded in the theory of the product cycle why this thesis also scrutinizes its validity. Firms in a region which have a high access to knowledge and research should have a front position within export. This access can be sub-divided into the unit of performance or with respect to the geographical location. Due to the data used in the analysis and its complexity, the final result is an indica-tion rather than precise. The accessibility is doubtlessly of major importance for the export growth but the subdivisions give different results. Research performed by firms seems to affect the export growth positively irrespective of the localisation. Also, the external accessibility to firm research has a larger impact on the export growth than if it is performed internally. The access to research performed by universities gives the most notable results. Without statistical significance a tendency can only be distinguished. The research performed by universities seems more difficult to absorb by firms irrespective of geographical location. The relation between firms and universities may be two folded where it is positive as well as competitive.

The  Austrian  Business  Cycle  Theory  (ABC)  provides  a  qualitative  explanation  of  why economies go through ups and downs in terms of national income, production output and labor employment. The theory states that interest and money supply policy distort the time preferences of economic agents. If the monetary authority reduces the interest rate through artificial credit expansion the new economic conditions induce both increased production and consumption. The  framework of  the Austrian  theory depends on  savings  to  fuel  investments, i.e. reduced consumption in order to create increased future consumption. Artificially  induced  expansions  create  a wedge between  these producer  and  consumer preferences, and prolonging of the process widens the gap between the economic state and the free market  equilibrium which  is  long-term  sustainable. When  the  financial  system  eventually is unable to maintain inflation of credit to uphold the economy, there will be abandonment of capital investments, resulting in an unavoidable recession. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the theory from a short run perspective, using data from  the United Kingdom  economy. The  theory has previously primarily been  tested  in long run perspectives and mainly on the American economy. To achieve the noted a model was constructed based on the description of the theory by economists Hayek and Garrison, members of the Austrian school of economics. To empirically model the ABC theory the ratio between consumption and investment, the intertemporal  resource allocation, was  calculated and used as a dependent variable  in  regressions with money aggregates, credit and interest rate gap as independent variables. The empirical findings give some support to the theory, with a number of those findings directly in favor of the theory. Credit was shown to better explain changes in the C/I ratio than money aggregates, indicating that credit is more directly suited for investments. The coefficient for the interest rate gap, the difference between the natural interest rate and the market interest rate, showed strong significance. Overall differences between economic expansions and recessions were found statistically significant, which lends support to the model.

Syftet med uppsatsen är att analysera utlokaliseringen av tekoindustrin i EU15. Man finner svaren i följande frågor: Vilka faktorer bidrar till omflyttning av produktionen till låglöne-länder? Vilka är vinnarna och förlorarna på denna omstrukturering? Hur klarar den Euro-peiska tekoindustrin av dessa utmaningar? Att redogöra för varje EU-land är för omfattan-de därför valdes Sverige och Portugal beroende på att respektive land har en utvecklad och mindre utvecklad ekonomi. Därutöver riktas deras produktion mot olika sektorer av teko-industrin vilket möjliggjorde landsjämförelsen. Största delen av datan har samlats från SourceOECD’s hemsida då den innehåller information som är viktigast for uppsatsen. Re-sultatet visar att när industrin utvecklas och marknaden till slut blir överhettad börjar indu-strilandet att flytta produktionen utomlands, fokuseringen ändras och impörten blir allt vik-tigare. Denna process sker gradvis med hjälp av liberalisering av världshandel och EU ut-ökning. / The purpose of this paper is to analyze the location dynamics of textile and clothing industries in the EU15. Specifically, it seeks to answer the following questions: What are the factors that contribute to the relocation of European production to low-wage countries? Who are hurt by these changes and who gain? How does the European textile and clothing industry cope with these challenges? It is beyond the scope of this paper to analyze the T/C industry of each EU15 member state. Instead, it specifically investigates Sweden and Portugal’s textile and clothing sectors simply because the former represents Europe’s old economy while the latter the most recent one. In addition, each country devotes its production to the different sectors of the industry, hence this cross-country comparison. Majority of the data is gathered from SourceOECD as the webpage contains information of most value to this paper. The result of this study shows that as an industry matures and competition heats up pricing measures, the developed country moves production operations overseas, ends up as a net importer of the good and shifts focus toward other activities. This process takes effect gradually but the liberalisation of world trade and European enlargement are a few contributing factors which helped anchor relocation decisions.

Policyholder exercise behavior presents an important risk factor for life insurance companies. Yet, most approaches presented in the academic literature – building on value maximizing strategies akin to the valuation of American options – do not square well with observed prices and exercise patterns. Following a recent strand of literature, in order to gain insights on what drives policyholder behavior, I first develop a life-cycle model for variable annuities (VA) with withdrawal guarantees. However, I explicitly allow for outside savings and investments, which considerably affects the results. Specifically, I find that withdrawal patterns after all are primarily motivated by value maximization – but with the important asterisk that the value maximization should be taken out from the policyholders’ perspective accounting for individual tax benefits. To this effect, I develop a risk-neutral valuation methodology that takes these different tax structures into consideration, and apply it to our example contract as well as a representative empirical VA. The results are in line with corresponding outcomes from the life cycle model, and I find that the withdrawal guarantee fee from the empirical product roughly accords with its marginal price to the insurer. I further consider the implications of policyholder behavior on product design. In particular – due to differential tax treatments and contrary to option pricing theory – the marginal value of such guarantees can become negative, even when the holder is a value maximizer. For instance, as I illustrate with both a simple two-period model and an empirical VA, a common death benefit guarantee may indeed yield a negative marginal value to the insurer.