最低保證提領附約(Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit；GMWB)為變額年金保險之創新型態附約，附有最低保證提領附約之契約，以期初投資總額計算最低保證提領金額，提供被保險人規避連結投資標的物而產生之資產跌價損失風險，給予被保險人於保險契約到期前提領最低保證金額。 　　本研究依據Milevsky and Salisbury (2006)保證提領附約計價模型及基本假設架構，將附約分解為確定年金與亞式匯率選擇權契約，利用蒙地卡羅方法，計算隱含之避險成本，以2007年台灣定存利率實證分析及對照，探究保險人合理避險成本，藉由保證提領率、無險利率、連結標的物波動度三種參數進行敏感度分析，歸納參數對避險成本之影響，提供保險機構於發行最低保證提領附約時，避險成本之參考依據。 　　由數值計算結果歸納發現，最低保證提領附約之避險成本與保證提領率、無險利率與標的物波動度三項參數有關，摘要如下： 1. 無險利率與避險成本呈反向關係，給定銀行利率2.34%，每期保證提領率7%，連結標的波動度20%時，保險人之避險成本為270基準點。 2. 標的物波動度與避險成本呈正向關係，於給定本研究條件下，連結標的物波動度為30%時，保險人之避險成本顯著增加為600基準點。 3. 保證提領率與避險成本呈正向關係，於給定本研究條件下，模擬數值結果顯示，保證提領率每增加0.5%，保險人避險成本將再增加20基準點。

Policyholder exercise behavior presents an important risk factor for life insurance companies. Yet, most approaches presented in the academic literature – building on value maximizing strategies akin to the valuation of American options – do not square well with observed prices and exercise patterns. Following a recent strand of literature, in order to gain insights on what drives policyholder behavior, I first develop a life-cycle model for variable annuities (VA) with withdrawal guarantees. However, I explicitly allow for outside savings and investments, which considerably affects the results. Specifically, I find that withdrawal patterns after all are primarily motivated by value maximization – but with the important asterisk that the value maximization should be taken out from the policyholders’ perspective accounting for individual tax benefits. To this effect, I develop a risk-neutral valuation methodology that takes these different tax structures into consideration, and apply it to our example contract as well as a representative empirical VA. The results are in line with corresponding outcomes from the life cycle model, and I find that the withdrawal guarantee fee from the empirical product roughly accords with its marginal price to the insurer. I further consider the implications of policyholder behavior on product design. In particular – due to differential tax treatments and contrary to option pricing theory – the marginal value of such guarantees can become negative, even when the holder is a value maximizer. For instance, as I illustrate with both a simple two-period model and an empirical VA, a common death benefit guarantee may indeed yield a negative marginal value to the insurer.

Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits(GMWB) have become popular riders on variable annuities. The pricing of a GMWB contract was originally formulated as a singular stochastic control problem which results in a Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) Variational Inequality (VI). A penalty method method can then be used to solve the HJB VI. We present a rigorous proof of convergence of the penalty method to the viscosity solution of the HJB VI assuming the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion. A direct control method is an alternative formulation for the HJB VI. We also extend the HJB VI to the case of where the underlying asset follows a Poisson jump diffusion. The HJB VI is normally solved numerically by an implicit method, which gives rise to highly nonlinear discretized algebraic equations. The classic policy iteration approach works well for the Geometric Brownian Motion case. However it is not efficient in some circumstances such as when the underlying asset follows a Poisson jump diffusion process. We develop a combined fixed point policy iteration scheme which significantly increases the efficiency of solving the discretized equations. Sufficient conditions to ensure the convergence of the combined fixed point policy iteration scheme are derived both for the penalty method and direct control method. The GMWB formulated as a singular control problem has a special structure which results in a block matrix fixed point policy iteration converging about one order of magnitude faster than a full matrix fixed point policy iteration. Sufficient conditions for convergence of the block matrix fixed point policy iteration are derived. Estimates for bounds on the penalty parameter (penalty method) and scaling parameter (direct control method) are obtained so that convergence of the iteration can be expected in the presence of round-off error.

Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits(GMWB) have become popular riders on variable annuities. The pricing of a GMWB contract was originally formulated as a singular stochastic control problem which results in a Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) Variational Inequality (VI). A penalty method method can then be used to solve the HJB VI. We present a rigorous proof of convergence of the penalty method to the viscosity solution of the HJB VI assuming the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion. A direct control method is an alternative formulation for the HJB VI. We also extend the HJB VI to the case of where the underlying asset follows a Poisson jump diffusion. The HJB VI is normally solved numerically by an implicit method, which gives rise to highly nonlinear discretized algebraic equations. The classic policy iteration approach works well for the Geometric Brownian Motion case. However it is not efficient in some circumstances such as when the underlying asset follows a Poisson jump diffusion process. We develop a combined fixed point policy iteration scheme which significantly increases the efficiency of solving the discretized equations. Sufficient conditions to ensure the convergence of the combined fixed point policy iteration scheme are derived both for the penalty method and direct control method. The GMWB formulated as a singular control problem has a special structure which results in a block matrix fixed point policy iteration converging about one order of magnitude faster than a full matrix fixed point policy iteration. Sufficient conditions for convergence of the block matrix fixed point policy iteration are derived. Estimates for bounds on the penalty parameter (penalty method) and scaling parameter (direct control method) are obtained so that convergence of the iteration can be expected in the presence of round-off error.

In this thesis, we develop partial differential equation (PDE) based numerical methods to solve certain optimal stochastic control problems in finance. The value of a stochastic control problem is normally identical to the viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation or an HJB variational inequality. The HJB equation corresponds to the case when the controls are bounded while the HJB variational inequality corresponds to the unbounded control case. As a result, the solution to the stochastic control problem can be computed by solving the corresponding HJB equation/variational inequality as long as the convergence to the viscosity solution is guaranteed. We develop a unified numerical scheme based on a semi-Lagrangian timestepping for solving both the bounded and unbounded stochastic control problems as well as the discrete cases where the controls are allowed only at discrete times. Our scheme has the following useful properties: it is unconditionally stable; it can be shown rigorously to converge to the viscosity solution; it can easily handle various stochastic models such as jump diffusion and regime-switching models; it avoids Policy type iterations at each mesh node at each timestep which is required by the standard implicit finite difference methods. In this thesis, we demonstrate the properties of our scheme by valuing natural gas storage facilities---a bounded stochastic control problem, and pricing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits (GMWBs)---an unbounded stochastic control problem. In particular, we use an impulse control formulation for the unbounded stochastic control problem and show that the impulse control formulation is more general than the singular control formulation previously used to price GMWB contracts.

In this thesis, we develop partial differential equation (PDE) based numerical methods to solve certain optimal stochastic control problems in finance. The value of a stochastic control problem is normally identical to the viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation or an HJB variational inequality. The HJB equation corresponds to the case when the controls are bounded while the HJB variational inequality corresponds to the unbounded control case. As a result, the solution to the stochastic control problem can be computed by solving the corresponding HJB equation/variational inequality as long as the convergence to the viscosity solution is guaranteed. We develop a unified numerical scheme based on a semi-Lagrangian timestepping for solving both the bounded and unbounded stochastic control problems as well as the discrete cases where the controls are allowed only at discrete times. Our scheme has the following useful properties: it is unconditionally stable; it can be shown rigorously to converge to the viscosity solution; it can easily handle various stochastic models such as jump diffusion and regime-switching models; it avoids Policy type iterations at each mesh node at each timestep which is required by the standard implicit finite difference methods. In this thesis, we demonstrate the properties of our scheme by valuing natural gas storage facilities---a bounded stochastic control problem, and pricing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits (GMWBs)---an unbounded stochastic control problem. In particular, we use an impulse control formulation for the unbounded stochastic control problem and show that the impulse control formulation is more general than the singular control formulation previously used to price GMWB contracts.

附最低保證投資型保險商品的特色在於無論投資者的投資績效好壞，保險金額皆享有一最低投資保證，過去關於此類商品的研究皆假設標的資產為單一資產，或依固定比例之投資組合，並沒有考慮到投資人自行配置投資組合的效果，但大部分市售商品中，投資人可以自行配置投資標，此情況之下，保險公司如何衡量適當的保證成本即為一相當重要之課題。 本研究假設投資人風險偏好服從冪次效用函數，並假設與保單所連結之投資標的有兩種資產，一為具有高風險高報酬的資產，另一為具有低風險低報酬之資產，在每個保單年度之初，投資人可以選擇配置在兩種資產之比例，我們運用黃迪揚(2009)所提出的動態規劃數值解之方法，計算出在考慮投資人自行配置資產之下，保證成本將會比固定比例之投資高出12個百分點。 此外，為了瞭解在不同資產報酬率的模型之下，保證成本是否會有不一樣的結論，除了對數常態模型之外，我們假設高風險資產與低風險資產服從ARIMA-GARCH(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic )模型，並得到較高的保證成本。 / The main characteristic of variable annuities (VA) with minimum benefits is that the benefit will be guaranteed. Previous literatures assume a specific underling asset return process when considering the guaranteed cost of VA; but they do not consider the portfolio choice opportunity of the policyholders. However, it is common for policyholders to rebalance his portfolio in many types of VA products. Therefore it’s important for insurance companies to apply an approximate method to measure the guaranteed cost. In this research, we assume that there are two potential assets in policyholders’ portfolio; one with high risk and high return and the other one with low risk and low return. The utility function of the policyholder is assumed to follow a power utility. We consider the asset allocation effect on the guaranteed cost for a VA with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits, finding that the guaranteed cost will increase 12% compared with a specific underling asset. The model effect of the asset return process is also examined by considering two different asset processes, the lognormal model and ARIMA-GARCH model. The solution of dynamic programming problem is solved by the numerical approach proposed by Huang (2009). Finally we get the conclusion which the guaranteed cost given by the ARIMA-GARCH model is greater than the lognormal model.