The purpose of this thesis is to examine the monetary policy of the Swedish central bank, Riksbanken, from the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics. The thesis starts with a description of the actions of Riksbanken, its objectives of the monetary policy and what tools are used to achieve those objectives. The thesis continues with an analysis of possible consequences for the Swedish business cycles that the monetary policy of Riksbanken may have caused. The theory that is used to answer the research question is Austrian economic theory and primarily Austrian Business Cycle Theory. A review of relevant theory is made, and an examination of relevant macroeconomic factors is produced. The examination shows that the factors have changed over time according to the prediction of the Austrian School of Economics. The Riksbank's monetary policy decisions have been affected by concerns about the household indebtedness. This concern is in line with the warnings of the Austrian school. The Riksbank has, on the other hand, not considered the Austrian schools' fears of malinvestment and artificial boom in its monetary policy decisions. The conclusion of the essay is that the monetary policy of Riksbanken may contribute to strengthening business cycles, according with the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics. If the inflation prognosis’s from Riksbanken would have been correct, they probably had exercised a more aggressive monetary policy, primary by lowering the interest rate. It would have increased the variations of the business cycles trough increasing the gap between the natural interest rate and the market rate. / Syftet med uppsatsen är att granska Riksbankens penningpolitik utifrån den österrikiska skolans synsätt. Uppsatsen redogör för Riksbankens mål för penningpolitiken och vilka verktyg de använder för att uppnå dessa. Granskningen av den förda penningpolitiken genomförs utifrån den österrikiska ekonomiska teorin, främst dess konjunkturcykelteori. En genomgång av denna teori genomförs, och en analys av bakomliggande faktorer utförs. Analysen slår fast att de flesta av de undersökta variablerna har förändrat i linje med vad som kan förväntas enligt den österrikiska teorin. Riksbankens penningpolitiska beslut har påverkats av oron för hushållen skuldsättning. Denna oro ligger i linje med vad österrikiska skolan varnar för. Den österrikiska skolans farhågor för felinvesteringar och konstlad högkonjunktur har Riksbanken däremot inte tagit hänsyn till i sina penningpolitiska beslut. Slutsatsen för uppsatsen blir att Riksbankens penningpolitik kan ha bidragit till att förstärka konjunktursvängningarna. I det fall att Riksbankens inflationsprognoser varit mer träffsäkra, skulle de under större delen av perioden enligt sina egna handlingsregler ha fört en mer aggressiv penningpolitik, främst genom lägre styrränta. Det skulle i så fall stärkt konjunktursvängningarna än mer enligt den österrikiska konjukturcykelteorin.

The study of economic crises has been a major topic of interest in economics since at least the Great Depression and it has come to the fore once again after the latest crisis of late 2000s. It has also been one of the key themes for the Austrian school of economics in the form of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), which puts emphasis on monetary factors influencing capital structure of the economy. In this thesis we provide a comprehensive exposition of the distinctive points of Austrian approach to the study of markets, the ABCT's propositions and conclusions and also the most important criticism of the theory and replies to it. The theoretical part is accompanied by an empirical illustration on the economy of the United States of America in the period starting at the end of the latest crisis. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

本研究以資料包絡分析法來衡量職業球員的績效表現，球員在簽訂複數年合約前後與績效表現之關聯性，來探討球員是否有合約週期的現象，進而再探究球員處於合約年的比率多寡，是否會對球隊的勝率造成影響。 　　本研究以2002年球季結束後至2008年球季開始前，這段期間曾與球團簽訂複數年合約的美國大聯盟球員為研究對象。實證結果顯示投手在簽訂複數年合約前一年，純粹技術效率有明顯增加，野手部分則顯示在簽約前兩年整體技術效率呈現顯著增加。研究結果顯示支持合約週期理論，即球員在合約年之前會刻意增加表現，以便爭取較佳之合約。另外，以2009年各球隊的勝場數為研究對象，實證結果顯示，當球隊中有較多投手處於複數年合約的第一年，則球隊的勝場數顯著較少。 / This research applies Data envelopment analysis to examine the performance of Major League Baseball (MLB) players before and after signing multi-year contracts. The research also aims to explore the claim of contract cycle theory by investigating whether contract status has an influence on wining ratio of a team. The sample includes players who signed multi-year contracts between end of season 2002 and prior season 2008. The result illustrates that pitchers’pure technical efficiency increase significantly before signing the contract and fielders’total technical efficiency increase significantly 2 years before the contract signing. The results support the contract cycle theory that players show a tendency to improve their performance prior to signing a contract in order to earn a better contract. In addition, the teams with more players who are in their first year of multi-year contract have a significantly less number of wining ratio.

本研究使用資料包絡分析法衡量NBA球員之績效值，並探討球員在簽訂複數年合約前後與績效之關聯性，是否有Stiroh(2002)提出之合約年效應，並進而比較NBA官方提供績效值與DEA法計算出之球員績效值何者對於球員薪資具有較佳的解釋能力。 本研究取用2000年至2011年共11年間曾經歷合約到期並再次向球團簽訂複數年合約的184名球員做為樣本；實證結果發現，在控制年齡、年資、提前續約與否、球員位置及先發球員與否後整體技術效率方面及球員每分鐘平均績效值顯示在球員簽約前績效有顯著提高之現象； NBA官方提供績效值與純技術效率簽約前後係數也是負的，雖然未達到統計上顯著水準，因此，本研究結果顯示NBA球員在簽約新約前的確有合約週期現象，亦即為爭取較佳合約球員在簽約前會刻意表現較佳之績效。 此外，根據Vuong Test比較NBA官方提供績效值與DEA法計算出之績效值和球員每分鐘績效值與薪資關聯性的測試結果，顯示由官方提供之績效值對薪資關聯性較高，說明目前NBA官方提供之績效值仍然是球團用來與球員薪資的談判重要參考指標之一。 / The research applies Data Envelopment Analysis to examine the NBA players’ efficiency performance before and after signing a new multi-year contract, and whether there exists the Contract Cycle Effect that suggested by Stiroh (2002). The research also tries to compare NBA efficiency score and DEA efficiency score to test which has a higher association with salary. The samples selected 184 NBA players who signed a new multi-year contract from 2000 to 2011. After controlling the players’ age, seniority, extension, position and starting or not, the empirical results denote that DEA total efficiency score and the NBA efficiency per minute indicate a higher efficiency score before signing a new contract, The NBA official efficiency score and DEA technical efficiency score also reveal a negative coefficient before and after new contract singed, although the statistical test didn’t reach the significant level. The results imply that NBA players do exist the Contract Cycle Effect phenomenon that players will perform better efficiency in order to get a better contract. The Vuong test results reveal that the official NBA efficiency score has a higher association with salary comparing with DEA efficiency score. The finding suggests that the official efficiency score is one of the major references for the NBA teams on salary arbitration.

Šiuo darbu siekta išanalizuoti, kaip Kinijos santykinės galios ir vaidmens tendencijų JAV atžvilgiu pasiskirstymas gali lemti įtampą – konfliktą ar taikų sambūvį sistemoje tarp JAV ir Kinijos. Tyrimui taikyta galios ciklo teorija, besiremianti „bendrosios pusiausvyros koncepcija“. Pagrindinis teorijos argumentas teigia, kad stabilumas priklauo nuo dviejų pagrindinių veiksnių: a) ar stiprėjančios valstybės didėjanti santykinė galia yra atsveriama kitų sistemos didižiųjų valstybių santykine galia – t.y. nelemia kritinio taško, lūžio, šiuo atveju sistemos lyderio - JAV, santykinės galios cikle sistemos atžvilgiu; b) ar egzistuoja stiprėjančios valstybės santykinės galios ir santykinio vaidmens ciklų suderinamumas, valstybės su kuria galimos įtampos, atžvilgiu. Siekiant atlikti kiekybinį santykinės galios ir santykinio vaidmens tyrimą, formalus galios ciklo modelis kiek pakoreguotas, pakeičiant santykinės galios operacionalizaciją ir į modelį įtraukiant kiekybinį santykinio vaidmens matavimą. Būtent kiekybinis vaidmens matavimas leido iki galo išpildyti galios ciklo teorijos argumentus, patikrinti tyrimo teiginius bei atmesti abi darbe keltas hipotezes. Įgyvendinus darbe keliamus uždavinius ir pasiekus darbo tikslą, galimos tokios pagrindinės empyrinio tyrimo išvados ir teorinės darbo implikacijos: Akademinėje literatūroje dominuojanti absoliučiais skaičiais vertinama Kinijos galia jau dabartiniu momentu kuria Kinijos galios saugumizavimą ir jos kaip didžiausios grėsmės sistemai... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The master thesis ”Shifting Nexus of China-US Power and Role: Power Cycle Theory Application” seeks to analyze how a shifting nexus of China-US relative power and role cycles could cause a tense or peaceful transformation of the system. The research expands more traditional explanations about China’s rise of power and it’s implications to the transformation of the international system. The research is based on power cycle theory developed by Charles Doran and applied for the analysis of the Great Wars in history. The main founding principle of power cycle theory is empirically proved and statistically significant correlation of the critical points in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state and conflicts. It is only one but not sufficient condition for the growing power to start a war as power cycle theory argues. So, in the ”moment of truth” or when a critical point in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state happens, the main condition for the tension or a peaceful international system transition is the nexus of relative to the dominant state power and role cycles of the growing state and the alignment or misbalance between them. Before the power cycle theory to the case of China’s growth and its cause to the international system is applied, some methodological improvements of theory are made: the operationalisation of relative power index is changed and the term “relative role” is operationalised in order to measure it quantitative. A... [to full text]

Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.

The thesis describes and analyses the problem of the global financial and economic crisis and its influence on the Russian economy. It constitutes a synthesis of main approaches to the crisis' examination from the years 2008-2011 and develops its own theoretical model for explaining the crisis' emergence and spreading in an open economy, and also analyses in detail the state of the Russian economy and anti-crisis measures. The thesis is based on assumptions that the crisis could have been explained and foreseen theoretically with the help of macroeconomic models, that the anti-crisis policy was in majority of cases inefficient, and that the problems of the Russian economy were caused not only by the global recession, but also by its internal imbalances. On the methodological side, the thesis is based on the ideas of the Austrian and Keynesian economics (the Austrian business cycle model and post- and neo-Keynesian branches) and the financial crises economics and partly on selected thoughts of the Marxian economics, and is divided into four chapters. In the first chapter, the attention is given to the four main heterodox theoretical approaches to explaining financial and economic crises and to the development of a synthetic model. In the second chapter, the reasons, course and main previsions of the U.S. and global crisis are examined and the synthetic model from the first chapter is empirically tested. In the third chapter, the degree of the crisis' influence on different groups of countries is estimated, followed by a description of its main transmission channels and an analysis of anti-crisis measures at the global level. The fourth chapter is dedicated to the specifics of the Russian economy, its development during the crisis and to the anti-crisis policy of the Russian government and of the Central Bank of Russia. The thesis attempts to fill the gap in the existing economic literature by presenting new findings in the above-mentioned areas.

This thesis aims to investigate to what extent the quantitative easing monetary policy tool, applied by the Riksbank, contributed to abnormal returns at the Swedish stock market during Covid-19. The chosen time period is 2007-2022, including the period before and after the implementation of quantitative easing in Sweden in 2015. Furthermore, the chosen time period includes two crises, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Covid-19 crisis. Two artificial portfolios are created, one representing a high-risk portfolio and the other representing a low-risk portfolio. The thesis applies the ADL error correction model to estimate a potential relationship amongst QE and the returns for each of the computed portfolios. Results show a short-run relationship for both the high-risk and the low-risk portfolio. From the long-run perspective, there is only a relationship found concerning the high-risk portfolio. A modified CAPM-model is used as an interpretation when calculating abnormal returns, where the growth rate of industrial production reflects the expected return. Results show the presence of QE and abnormal returns for both portfolios during the time period of Covid-19, 2020-2022. / Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka i vilken utsträckning Riksbankens kvantitativa lättnader bidrog till abnorm avkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden under Covid-19. Den valdat idsperioden är 2007 – 2022, vilket inkluderar perioden före och efter genomförandet av kvantitativa lättnader i Sverige. Vidare inkluderar den valda tidsperioden två kriser, den globala finanskrisen samt Covid-19-krisen. Två artificiella portföljer konstrueras, där en representerar en högriskportfölj och den andra representerar en lågriskportfölj. Studien tillämpar en ADL error correction modell för att undersöka huruvida det existerar ett samband mellan kvantitativa lättnader och avkastningen för var och en av portföljerna. Resultaten visar ett kortsiktigt förhållande för både högrisk- och lågriskportföljen. Ur det långsiktiga perspektivet hittades endast ett samband för högriskportföljen. En modifierad CAPM-modell används vid beräkning av abnorm avkastning, där variabeln för den industriella produktionstillväxten reflekterar den förväntade avkastningen. Resultaten visar förekomsten av abnorm avkastning i samband de kvantitativa lättnader som genomfördes under Covid-19 för båda portföljerna under tidsperioden 2020–2022.

The aim of this study is to assess whether there is a relationship between capital structure and financial performance among Swedish FinTech companies. Previous studies have examined this relationship in other industries and in other countries with mixed and sometimes contradictory results. The theoretical framework consists of theories such as trade-off theory, pecking-order theory and the life cycle theory. For the purpose of the study, a regression analysis of 204 Swedish FinTech companies was conducted between the years 2017-2019. The results show that FinTech companies are financed with approximately half of liabilities, most of which consist of current liabilities. Consistent with the pecking-order theory, the results of the current study indicate a negative and significant relationship between leverage and profitability measured as ROE. In addition, larger- and older companies seem to be more profitable. / Denna studie strävar efter att bedöma huruvida det finns ett samband mellan kapitalstruktur och finansiell prestation bland svenska FinTech-företag. Tidigare studier har undersökt detta förhållande på andra branscher och i andra länder med blandade och ibland motsägelsefulla resultat. Det teoretiska ramverket består av teorier som trade-off teorin, pecking-order teorin samt livscykelteorin. För studiens ändamål genomfördes en regressionsanalys på 204 svenska FinTech-företag mellan åren 2017-2019. Resultaten visar att FinTech-företagen är finansierade med ungefär hälften skulder, varav merparten består av kortfristiga skulder. Konsekvent med pecking-order teorin indikerar resultaten i den aktuella studien ett negativt och signifikant samband mellan skuldsättning och lönsamhet mätt som ROE. Dessutom verkar de större- och äldre företagen vara mer lönsamma.

進入Web2.0時代後，社群網站產業成長快速，從各大入口網站、部落格網站及社群網站業者所投入的程度來看，社群網站的確是目前極具發展前景的網路新興產業。但觀察目前現有的社群網站研究文獻，大多仍局限於探討社群網站使用者的使用動機、行為等等，對於社群網站的產業環境、廠商策略、行為與績效，以及服務機制的使用、應用創新程度缺乏有力的分析。故本研究藉由SCP產業分析模型來分析社群網站的產業狀況，以『結構—行為—績效』的架構來分析社群網站的產業結構、市場行為與經濟績效之間的關係，佐以產業五力分析理論及產業生命週期理論研究社群產業現況，據以歸納出社群產業的現況及社群網站廠商經營策略的關鍵成功因素，並對未來的社群網站提供建議。 本研究採質化及量化的研究方式。質化部份為分別對台灣主要的四家社群網站（Facebook、無名小站、痞客邦、優勢網）做個別研究，訪談相關資深人員，得出目前產業的現況及各家廠商的關鍵成功因素。量化部份則藉由蒐集問卷樣本資料，分析社群網站使用者的動機與行為、以及他們對於上述四家社群網站功能的偏好。 本研究結果發現，(1) 社群網站的經營模式多為建立一個網路平台，以網站的功能吸引使用者加入並增加黏著度，並以高流量吸引廣告收入，故社群網站一般不會對使用者收費。(2) 社群網站產業沒有傳統上所謂的供應商，與同業間也非傳統的競爭關係。因為使用者可同時使用多個社群網站，社群網站間的使用者也很有可能重複，所以社群網站間並非零和的競爭關係。現今多為互相串連合作，使更多使用者加入與增加停留時間，擴大產業的影響力。(3) 社群網站產業呈現大者通吃的現象，同一類型的社群網站只有前一兩家能夠生存。(4) 社群網站產業的進入門檻低，但新進入者必須有足夠的差異性與創新性才能成功。而現存的社群網站也必須不斷創新服務、提供新功能，才能保有領先地位不被淘汰。(5) 社群網站未來將持續著重於建立使用者之間的人際網路，讓彼此的訊息往來更加簡便迅速。 最後，本研究希望據以歸納出社群產業的環境狀況及各家具代表性的社群網站廠商的關鍵成功因素，並針對未來的社群網站廠商提供建議。 關鍵字：社群網站、SCP產業分析模型、Web2.0、產業五力分析、產業生命週期、關鍵成功因素 / In the Web2.0 era, the growth rate of social networking industry is so fast. The social networking sites are so potential businesses from the investments of major portals, blogs and social networking sites. Almost the thesis are studied the users’ behaviors and motivation’s factors. It’s so lack to study about the industry’s environment, the strategies, conducts, performances of social networking site business. So, this thesis wants to analysis the social networking industry by SCP model. And it wants to analysis the relationship of industry structure, conducts, and performances, and to study the industry status by five competitive force model and industry life cycle theory. It wants to summarize the status of social networking industry, the key successful factors, and the suggestions for future new entrants. This thesis is studied by qualitative research and quantitative research. The qualitative research is that I had a discussion with the senior managers of four famous social networking sites. It discussed the status of the industry and the key successful factors. And the quantitative research is by collecting questionnaire, analysis of community motivation and behavior of website users and their social networking site for the function of the four sites. This study summarized that (1) social networking business model is to build up a networking platform’s functions to attract users to this site, to increased degree of adhesion to earn more high advertising revenue. It can’t charge any fees from users. (2) There is no supplier that like as the tradition business. And the competition is not like as the traditional business due to users can simultaneously access multiple social networking sites. Each user has some different social networking site’s accounts. (3) Just one or two largest sites can survive in similar business model. (4) The entry barrier is so low, but the new entrants must have a sufficient difference and innovation to succeed. (5) the future of social networking sites will continue to focus on interpersonal networks between users, to let social information more easily and quickly. Keywords: social networking sites, SCP industry analysis model, Web2.0, five competitive forces analysis, industry life cycle, the key successful factors