It has been written extensively on the EU’s evolving role in the global economy. A mere numeric analysis tells the story about the world’s greatest economic actor that continuously grows in both scope and magnitude. However, due to an increased politicisation of global economic interactions, the matter is not that simple. Scholars agree that the USA, since the end of the Cold War, has been the preeminent actor, arranging, facilitating and maintaining the liberalisation of the global economy. Amongst these scholars, there is a consensus that the EU has developed its position within the framework for which the USA has pioneered and provided. The question is what happens when the USA withdraws from its global commitments and runs a policy counter to fundamental European interests and values? Through a detailed investigation of the European efforts to counter the American withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the reactions from the number of actors affected, I capture the extent to which the EU arrives at operating credibly and autonomously of the USA on an issue of strategic interest. My conclusion is that the EU’s agency in global affairs is restricted by the American position in the increasingly politicised economy. It becomes apparent that the institutional and structural framework within which the EU operates limits the Union’s ability to consolidate its position in global affairs through economic means.

正如古典現實主義者所提倡的，最初的政治學中的關係探究存在於人類的本質中。權力的交替定義了君主世界中的相對關係，也因而形塑了我們對利益的追求。這樣的權力轉變正在中國發生，同時這也反應在中國對南海戰略的政策上。古典現實主義提供了海洋的國際政治學一個嶄新觀點。透過地理政治學上的解釋性分析，此研究檢視中國的政策與對世界的影響。在南海，中國持續崛起的力量、戰略與政策導致由中國主導的區域秩序。本研究所採用的研究方法發現到，中國崛起是一股相對的力量，且美國所企圖採取的權力平衡，可能無法成功圍堵中國的崛起。 / The primordial causal relationship within politics lies in the condition of our human nature, as classical realists argue. The constant exchange in power defines the relative relationships within the anarchical world, and shapes our pursuit of interests thereof. Such a change in power is occurring within China, and this is being reflected on its shifting policy and conduct in the South China Sea. Classical realism ought to shed light on and put forth a new perspective on the situation in the maritime sphere of international politics. The thesis scrutinizes, through interpretive analysis within a geopolitical approach, China’s policy and how it sees the world. The outcome of China’s increasing power, strategy and subsequent policy results in a China-led regional order starting in the waters of the South China Sea. The importance of this method in seeing China’s rise is the relativity of power and how the balance of power, including US, may prove to be inconclusive in trying to contain China’s unprecedented rise.

Šiuo darbu siekta išanalizuoti, kaip Kinijos santykinės galios ir vaidmens tendencijų JAV atžvilgiu pasiskirstymas gali lemti įtampą – konfliktą ar taikų sambūvį sistemoje tarp JAV ir Kinijos. Tyrimui taikyta galios ciklo teorija, besiremianti „bendrosios pusiausvyros koncepcija“. Pagrindinis teorijos argumentas teigia, kad stabilumas priklauo nuo dviejų pagrindinių veiksnių: a) ar stiprėjančios valstybės didėjanti santykinė galia yra atsveriama kitų sistemos didižiųjų valstybių santykine galia – t.y. nelemia kritinio taško, lūžio, šiuo atveju sistemos lyderio - JAV, santykinės galios cikle sistemos atžvilgiu; b) ar egzistuoja stiprėjančios valstybės santykinės galios ir santykinio vaidmens ciklų suderinamumas, valstybės su kuria galimos įtampos, atžvilgiu. Siekiant atlikti kiekybinį santykinės galios ir santykinio vaidmens tyrimą, formalus galios ciklo modelis kiek pakoreguotas, pakeičiant santykinės galios operacionalizaciją ir į modelį įtraukiant kiekybinį santykinio vaidmens matavimą. Būtent kiekybinis vaidmens matavimas leido iki galo išpildyti galios ciklo teorijos argumentus, patikrinti tyrimo teiginius bei atmesti abi darbe keltas hipotezes. Įgyvendinus darbe keliamus uždavinius ir pasiekus darbo tikslą, galimos tokios pagrindinės empyrinio tyrimo išvados ir teorinės darbo implikacijos: Akademinėje literatūroje dominuojanti absoliučiais skaičiais vertinama Kinijos galia jau dabartiniu momentu kuria Kinijos galios saugumizavimą ir jos kaip didžiausios grėsmės sistemai... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The master thesis ”Shifting Nexus of China-US Power and Role: Power Cycle Theory Application” seeks to analyze how a shifting nexus of China-US relative power and role cycles could cause a tense or peaceful transformation of the system. The research expands more traditional explanations about China’s rise of power and it’s implications to the transformation of the international system. The research is based on power cycle theory developed by Charles Doran and applied for the analysis of the Great Wars in history. The main founding principle of power cycle theory is empirically proved and statistically significant correlation of the critical points in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state and conflicts. It is only one but not sufficient condition for the growing power to start a war as power cycle theory argues. So, in the ”moment of truth” or when a critical point in the relative to the system power cycle of growing state happens, the main condition for the tension or a peaceful international system transition is the nexus of relative to the dominant state power and role cycles of the growing state and the alignment or misbalance between them. Before the power cycle theory to the case of China’s growth and its cause to the international system is applied, some methodological improvements of theory are made: the operationalisation of relative power index is changed and the term “relative role” is operationalised in order to measure it quantitative. A... [to full text]