Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Consensus methods require that the techniques have no bias and have skill. The accuracy of six statistical and dynamical model tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was examined for western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the 2003 and 2004 seasons using the climatology and persistence technique called ST5D as a measure of skill. A framework of three phases: (i) initial intensification; (ii) maximum intensity with possible decay/reintensification cycles; and (iii) decay was used to examine the skill. During both the formation and intensification stages, only about 60% of the 24-36 h forecasts were within +/- 10 kt, and the predominant tendency was to under-forecast the intensity. None of the guidance techniques predicted rapid intensification well. All of the techniques tended to under-forecast maximum intensity and miss decay/reintensification cycles. A few of the techniques provided useful guidance on the magnitude of the decay, although the timing of the decay was often missed. Whereas about 60-70% of the 12-h to 72-h forecasts by the various techniques during the decay phase were within +/- 10 kt, the strong bias was to not decay the cyclone rapidly enough. In general the techniques predict too narrow a range of intensity changes for both intensification and decay. / Captain, United States Air Force

Tropical cyclones (TCs) Irene and Sandy caused major damages in back to back years to the most densely populated city in the United States stunning the residents with storms linked to seemingly impossible probabilities. Such activity has raised questions about the effect of non-stationary aspects within atmospheric circulation on storm behavior and some assumptions inherent in previous hazard studies of the New York City (NYC) area. This study analyzes statistical aspects of hazard quantification for this area related to this non-stationarity and statistical characterization. In particular this study investigates the presence of multiple populations of storms, it also tests current assumptions inherent in these previous studies which produce surge hazards which differ significantly and it investigates a natural relationship between storm characteristics and large scale climate variations through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of the sea surface pressure. The findings of this study show that there is a statistically significant influence of climate variability on storm frequency, intensity and direction within the Battery and vicinity (BAV, Battery Park and surrounding region). Variations in large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns as well as sea surface temperature appear to be significantly affecting the surge hazard for this region. This study also shows there is a statistically significant relationship between storm heading and intensity as well as the presence of multiple populations of storms driven by different atmospheric states that behave with alternate characteristics. These multiple populations appear to be significantly influencing the overall average of storm behavior causing inaccurate assumptions in hazard quantification which leads to misestimation in risks.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / occurring most frequently. For the 217 large-error cases due to midlatitude influences, the most frequent error mechanisms were E-DCI (midlatitude), excessive response to vertical wind shear, excessive midlatitude cyclogenesis (E-MCG), insufficient midlatitude cyclogenesis (I-MCG), excessive midlatitude cyclolysis (E-MCL) and excessive midlatitude anticyclogenesis (E-MAG), which accounted for 68% of all large errors occurring in both NOGAPS and GFDN. Characteristics and symptoms of the erroneous forecast tracks and model fields are documented and illustrative case studies are presented. Proper identification and removal of the track forecast displaying an error mechanism could form a selective consensus that will be more accurate than a non-selective consensus. / Captain, United States Air Force