This dissertation looks at how African countries can mitigate the effects of external debt burden. African countries are enmeshed in unsustainable external debts that have led to debt overhang problems, declining output, escalating current account deficits and worsening human welfare indicators. These external debt burdens are further worsened by the structural weaknesses of these economies. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have initiated strategies aimed at trying to arrest the escalating debt burden such as rescheduling, structural adjustment programs and the highly indebted poor countries initiative. However, African countries continue to experience difficulties in servicing external debts. The objective of this study is to find ways by which African countries can effectively manage their debt burden and possibly come up with self pre-qualification schemes that would forestall future external debt problems. The questions the study seeks to answer are: how can African countries effectively manage their current debt burden? What can African countries do to forestall the pervasive external debt accumulation in the future? To address these questions, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of external debt burden for Africa. The model is estimated using the maximum likelihood method by applying the Kalman filter to the state space representation of the model. Empirical results of the model suggest that African countries need to refine their basket of imports and mainly import inputs that can be used in the production sector as opposed to importing consumption goods. Most importantly, these countries must re-think their export products and markets, and perhaps endeavor to export final goods as opposed to exporting primary commodities. Furthermore, simulations of the model show that an expansionary monetary shock and a favourable world commodity price shock leads to an increase in external debt. On the other hand, the world interest rate shock leads to a fall in external debt. An interesting result worth highlighting is that a favourable commodity price shock leads to an increase in imported investments but the increase in imported investments does not translate into increased output. On the other hand, an unfavourable world interest rate shock leads to a fall in imported investments. Generally, these findings suggest that African countries are vulnerable to external shocks. In pursuit of the second objective – possible ways of sourcing external debt and managing it sustainably – I find that the appropriate threshold level for debt sustainability is a ratio of external debt to gross domestic product of between 40%-60% for Africa compared to 120%-150% for Latin America. Surprisingly, East Asia has the lowest significant debt sustainability threshold of the three emerging market regions. On liquidity, which is captured by the short-term debt to reserves ratio, the threshold is 60%-80% for all the three regions. On governance, a stable political environment plays a crucial role in determining the external debt burden of African countries. An improvement in the legal system and a stable political environment leads to an increase in exports and a fall in consumption imports. These in turn reduce foreign debt. These findings suggest that African countries must pursue proper governance practices if they are to appropriately and effectively manage their external debt in ways that enhance economic progress instead of economic retardation.

Tyrimo objektas – skolos našta. Darbo tikslas – parengti metodiką ir įvertinti skolos naštą. Uždaviniai: 1. atskleisti valstybės skolos esmę, klasifikavimą bei skolinimosi tikslus; 2. išanalizuoti teigiamą ir neigiamą skolos poveikį ekonomikai; 3. nustatyti kokiais santykiniais rodikliais bei metodais vertinama skolos našta; 4. parengti skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką; 5. įvertinti Lietuvos skolos naštą ir palyginti su kitomis Baltijos šalimis. Tyrimo metodai: mokslinės literatūros analizės ir sintezės metodas, matematinio modeliavimo ir apibendrinimo metodai, statistinių rodiklių rinkimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai. Lietuvos valstybės skolos naštos įvertinimas atliktas 2001–2011 m. laikotarpiu. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmoje darbo dalyje atskleidus valstybės skolos esmę, sudėties svarbą, bei skolinimosi tikslus, nustatytas teorinis valstybės skolos poveikis ekonomikai. Antroje darbo dalyje, išanalizavus įvairių mokslininkų darbus, pateikti skolos naštos įvertinimo modeliai, išskiriami skolos naštos įvertinimo rodikliai, parengta skolos naštos įvertinimo metodika. Trečioje darbo dalyje, pagal siūlomą skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką, įvertinta Lietuvos skolos našta, gauti rezultatai palyginami su kitomis Baltijos šalimis, nustatytos rezultatų priežastys. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad Lietuvos ir Latvijos didėjanti valstybės skola jau tapo neigiamai ekonomiką veikiančiu makroekonominiu rodikliu, kuris rodo, kad valstybės skola tampa našta ateities kartoms... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Object of the research – debt burden. Aim of the research – to prepare methods and to assess the debt burden. Objectives: 1. to reveal the essence of the public debt, classification and goals of borrowing; 2. to analyze the positive and negative effects of debt on the economy; 3. to determine the indicators and methods to be used in evaluating the debt burden; 4. to prepare methods for the debt burden assessment; 5. to assess the debt burden of Lithuania, to compare it with that of other Baltic countries. Research methods: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, mathematical modeling, aggregation, statistical data collection, comparison, visualization techniques. The evaluation of Lithuanian public debt burden was carried out during the period of 2001-2011. Research results. The first part reveals the essence of the public debt, the importance of its composition and borrowing targets, determines the theoretical impact on the economy. The second part analyzes the models of the debt burden, distinguishes the figures of debt burden, prepares methodology the debt burden. The third part employs the methology of the debt burden of Lithuanian debt for future generations, compares the results obtained with those of the other Baltic countries, establishes reasons of results. The results show that growing national debt of Lithuania and Latvia has become a negative macro-economical indicator, which shows that public debt would be a burden for future generations. Lithuanian... [to full text]

Tyrimo objektas – valstybės skola. Tyrimo tikslas – įvertinus Lietuvos valstybės skolą, ištirti jos poveikį socialinėms išlaidoms. Uždaviniai: 1. Pateikti valstybės skolos sampratą bei valstybės skolinimosi poreikį sąlygojančius veiksnius. 2. Apibrėžti valstybės skolos naštą ir skolinimosi reikšmę ekonomikai. 3. Pateikti valstybės skolos vertinimo kriterijus. 4. Įvertinti Lietuvos valstybės skolą tarp ES valstybių pagal išskirtus vertinimo kriterijus. 5. Nustatyti Lietuvos valstybės skolos poveikį socialinėms išlaidoms bei palyginti jį su kitomis ES šalimis. Tyrimo metodika. Valstybės skolos sampratai bei valstybės skolinimosi poreikio nustatymui naudoti bendramoksliniai tyrimo metodai – mokslinės literatūros bei teisinių dokumentų analizė ir sintezė. Atliekant Lietuvos valstybės skolos analizę – statistinių duomenų rinkimo bei analizės metodai, palyginimo, grafinio vaizdavimo būdai, loginė analizė ir sintezė. Pritaikius regresinę analizę nustatytas Lietuvos valstybės skolos poveikis socialinėms išlaidoms. Lyginamosios analizės dėka šis poveikis įvertintas Europos Sąjungos šalių kontekste. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje pateikta valstybės skolos samprata, valstybės skolinimosi poreikį sąlygojantys veiksniai, skolinimosi reikšmė ekonomikai, išanalizuoti ir susisteminti skolos naštos modeliai. Antrojoje darbo dalyje, išanalizavus įvairių mokslininkų darbus, pateikti valstybės skolos vertinimo kriterijai, nustatyta valstybės skolos sudėties svarba, pateiktas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Object of the research – public debt. Aim of the research – to evaluate the Lithuanian public debt, to assess its influence on social expenditure. Objectives of the research: 1. to present the concept of public debt and to discuss the factors, which influence government borrowing needs; 2. to define the debt burden and to determine the effect of public debt on economy; 3. to provide the public debt evaluation criteria; 4. to evaluate the Lithuanian public debt in respect to the situation in the EU countries according to the identified criteria; 5. to determine the impact of the Lithuanian public debt on social expenditure and to compare it with that in other EU countries. Research methods. Analysis and synthesis of scientific literature and legal documents, statistical data collection and analysis methods, comparative analysis, graphical representation techniques, logical analysis, regression analysis. Research results. Part One introduces the concept of public debt, analyzes the factors influencing government borrowing needs, importance of borrowing to economy and structured models of debt burden. Part Two, having analyzed various scientific articles, provides criteria of the public debt evaluation, reasons importance of the public debt composition and presents the assessment model of the impact of public debt on social expenditure. Part Three gives structural and dynamic analysis of the Lithuanian public debt, evaluates the amount of public debt, according to the... [to full text]

Положения научной новизны, изложенные в диссертации: - расширено содержание понятия «кредитоспособность» коммерческой организации, акцентируя внимание на необходимости периодической оценки менеджментом финансовых возможностей компании; - определена тенденция в формировании информационной базы оценки кредитоспособности в современных условиях и предложено дополнительное решение в подготовке наиболее полных данных о бизнесе; - разработан порядок определения долговой нагрузки по ключевым показателям, позволяющий оперативно представлять информацию для управления компанией. Практическая значимость работы заключается в разработке рекомендаций по совершенствованию управления привлечением и использованием заемного капитала, которые могут использоваться значительной частью коммерческих организаций. / The provisions of scientific novelty set out in the dissertation: - the content of the concept of "creditworthiness" of a commercial organization has been expanded, focusing on the need for management to periodically assess the company's financial capabilities; - a tendency in the formation of an information base for assessing creditworthiness in modern conditions was determined and an additional solution was proposed in the preparation of the most complete data on business; - a procedure for determining the debt burden by key indicators has been developed, which makes it possible to promptly provide information for the management of the company. The practical significance of the work lies in the development of recommendations for improving the management of attracting and using debt capital, which can be used by a significant part of commercial organizations.

The thesis deals with the Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals called "Develop a global partnership for development" and monitor its fulfilment in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. The emphasis is laid on three important areas included in the Goal 8 and these are official development assistance, access of developing countries on markets of developed countries and external debt burden of developing states. The aim of the thesis is to capture present development in these areas by selected official indicators, which were set by United Nations, compare their current development with the initial year 1990 and on the basis of available data from past three years assess probable future progress in the mentioned areas. Final part of the thesis includes case study of selected Sub-Saharan countries, Ghana and Lesotho.

本研究同時探討房貸違約與提前清償終止行為，並對提前清償動機『出售』與『轉貸』予兼容並蓄。蒐集自H銀行房貸資料，運用多項式邏吉斯廻歸模型分析法，以總體經濟因子之有無分兩階段，對應變數-房貸終止行為(Y1)及提前清償動機(Y2)，採取雙層次深入實證。 實證結果：從機率模型配適度與解釋力之實證分析中，獲得一致結論，對於含有總體經濟因子-經濟成長率與CPI 年增率之模型，其所計算Cox & Snell及Nagelkerke之假 值分別為0.534及0.611，均大於0.5以上，其相對性與獨立性上，均具備較高的模型解釋力，為一較優之房貸違約與提前清償終止行為模型，其相關顯著影響因子如下： 一、對違約具有顯著影響之因子，包括：借款年限、初貸利率、LTV、保證人、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、 PTI、DBR＞22、軍警公教人員、設二胎、區域台北市、區域新北市及CPI年增率等14項。 二、對提前清償具有顯著影響之因子，包括：初貸利率、次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等9項。 三、對提前清償動機-『出售』之顯著因子：次級房貸、部分提前清償、購屋投資、設二胎等4項。 四、對提前清償動機-『轉貸』之顯著因子：初貸利率、次級房貸、購屋自住、年資、設二胎、CPI年增率及經濟成長率等7項。。 本實證結果所建構含有總體經濟因子之房貸終止行為機率模型，以其顯著影響因子再深入探討提前清償-『出售』與『轉貸』之動機，使提前清償行為模式更精確性地呈現，有助於提供金融機構，在計算違約機率與提前清償機率之模型架構上及授信審核評估上，具貢獻價值之參考資訊。 / This research explores the default and prepayment on the termination behaviors of residential mortgages, as well as the motives of prepayment in house selling or refinancing. Mortgage data are collected from the H bank in Taiwan, using the multi-nominal logistic regression analytic method to explore the factors affecting the default and prepayment behaviors. Empirical results show that loan period, initial mortgage rate, loan-to-value ratio (LTV), the existence of the guarantor, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, payment-to-income (PTI), debt burden ratio exceeded 22 (DBR＞22), government employees or teachers, second lien, location in Taipei city, the new Taipei city and CPI annual rate of increase are the significant factors of default behavior. As for the variables on prepayment, the initial mortgage rate, subprime mortgages, curtailment, investment purpose, residential use, DBR＞22, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant. For more detailed curtailment behavior, the empirical results show that house sale subprime mortgages, curtailment, residential investment purpose, second lien are significant factors. As for the variables in inter-bank refinancing initial interest rate, subprime mortgages, residential investment purpose, the age of professional career, second lien, CPI annual rate of increase and economical growth rate are significant factors. Results of this research may provide financial institutions precious references on the mortgage default and prepayment behaviors. The mortgage industry can take into account of the significant results on the capital planning in the future.