<p>This thesis was aimed at the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based model to support the Rwanda Land Use and Development Master Plan. Developing sustainable land management is the main task of this master plan. Stakeholder’s involvement was of key importance. Their demands should be analysed and visualised to support discussions and the decision-making process. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-use planning purposes. However, most land-use planning applications focus on a specific theme, such as urban development. In addition, land-use planning is often limited to a relatively small area. This thesis focused at the development of a countrywide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated in three main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and conservation. The GIS model was largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS) model. Many of the goals, objectives, and subobjectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adopted from the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, and new were created to suit the Rwandan situation. Stakeholder’s involvement was realized by assigning weights to the goals and preference maps. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used as weighting method. ESRI’s ArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. Firstly, suitability maps were created of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformed into preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference maps were collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, the preference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order to visualize conflict areas. Ortho photos proved to be useful when acting as reference for the suitability and preference maps. Despite a large number of missing datasets, the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding. However, many of the obtained results were unreliable because of the incompleteness of datasets, and can therefore not be used for decision-making.  Unfortunately, due to the stage of the project it was not possible to obtain weights from the stakeholders, and should therefore be done when the time is right. Right Choice DSS, a very user-friendly decision support application, was proposed to use for calculating weights. To conclude, the developed GIS model integrated countrywide land-use suitability mapping and stakeholders’ wishes that can be used for discussions and decision making.</p>

<p>After emergencies involving chemical spills it is of great importance that correct measures are taken with short notice, both for the security of people and in order to minimize future environmental consequences. The RIB-unit at the Swedish Rescue Services Agency initiated this study, the aim of which is to propose changes to the existing chemical transport calculation tool: Chemical Spill 3.4, included in RIB - Integrated Decision Support for Civil Protection, so that it can be used for decision support as well as in preventive work. A rough estimation of chemical transport in the subsurface is considered being of great importance when making decisions during emergency response operations.</p><p>The proposition presented in this report is a non site specific chemical transport model which is designed to give a rough estimation of NAPL flow in homogenous isotropic soil shortly after an instantaneous release. The model can be used at two levels; both in situations without access to information on subsurface properties, and with more accuracy in situations with knowledge of the included parameters. For that reason the user can choose among predefined alternatives or assign the parameters a numeric value to increase the quality of the model output. The predefined alternatives are represented by default values for different parameters in the model.</p><p>Suggested model output are vertical and horizontal transport of NAPL phase, horizontal transport of dissolved chemical in the aqueous phase, as well as the amounts of spill that are evaporated and entrapped in the soil, all at the time specified by the user. Moreover the maximum transport of the chemical phase and time to groundwater pollution are given. To make the uncertainty of the model clear for the user the results are given as the most likely value together with the smallest and largest values that can be expected.</p><p>Equations presented in this report describe a selection of subsurface processes which occur after a release of chemicals. The selection is made with the aim to reach satisfying result when the model is used within its domain without making the model complicated for the user. Therefore simplifying assumptions have been made in the descriptions of some processes while some other processes are neglected. Simplifications have been based on recognized references or on theoretical arguments, but the overall performance of the model as well as some of the default input parameters need to be further tested and validated before the new version of the model can be included in RIB. However, compared with the existing version Chemical Spill 3.4 several changes have been suggested; including additional processes, development of default values and making model uncertainty clear to the user. These changes are thought to significantly improve the existing model.</p> / <p>Vid olyckor med kemikalieutsläpp är det av stor vikt att rätt åtgärder snabbt vidtas, både för människors säkerhet och för att minimera framtida miljökonsekvenser. Räddningsverkets RIB-enhet initierade den här studien vars mål är att ge förslag på modellteknisk förbättring av det befintliga beräkningsprogrammet Kemspill Mark 3.4, som ingår i programpaketet RIB - Integrerat beslutsstöd för skydd mot olyckor, så att det i framtiden kan användas som beslutsstöd vid räddningsinsats efter kemikalieutsläpp samt vid förebyggande planeringsarbete. En grov vägledning om kemikaliens spridning anses vara av stor betydelse för att räddningstjänsten ska kunna fatta rätt beslut vid en insats.</p><p>Förslaget som presenteras i denna rapport är en icke platsspecifik spridningsmodell anpassad för vätskor med begränsad löslighet i vatten och ger en grov uppskattning av spridning i homogen och isotrop mark inom några timmar efter ett momentant utsläpp.</p><p>Modellen ska kunna användas på två nivåer; för att ge en mycket grov uppskattning av spridningen även utan tillgång på uppgifter om markegenskaper, samt med större noggrannhet då informationen finns. Med anledning av detta kommer användaren ges möjlighet att välja bland fördefinierade alternativ eller att ange indata numeriskt för att öka noggrannheten. De fördefinierade valen representeras av typvärden för olika parametrar i modellen.</p><p>Den nya modellen i förslaget ger vid angiven tid vertikal och horisontell spridning av fri kemikaliefas, horisontell spridning av löst förorening i vattenfas samt hur stor andel av utsläppet som hålls kvar i marken respektive har avdunstat från spillytan. Dessutom anges kemikaliefasens maximala spridning och hur lång tid det tar för utsläppet att nå grundvattnet. För att tydliggöra modellens osäkerhet för användaren ges utdata som det mest sannolika värdet tillsammans med det största och minsta värdet som är sannolikt.</p><p>Ekvationerna som presenteras i rapporten beskriver ett urval av de processer som sker i marken vid ett kemikalieutsläpp. Urvalet har gjorts med utgångspunkt att uppnå tillfredställande resultat inom modellens domän utan att komplicera för användaren och därmed har förenklande antaganden gjorts för att beskriva vissa förlopp medan andra försummats helt. Förenklingarna har grundats på vedertagna referenser eller på teoretiskt resonemang. Validering av modellresultat samt vissa typvärdens intervall krävs före inkludering i RIB. Jämfört med det befintliga Kemspill Mark 3.4 har dock stora förändringar föreslagits; fler processer inkluderas, typvärden utvecklas och modellens osäkerhet görs tydlig för användaren. Förändringar tros medföra en signifikant förbättring av modellen.</p>

Modern civil commercial transport aircraft provide the means for the safest of all forms of transportation. While advanced computer technology ranging from flight management computers to warning and alerting devices contributed to flight safety significantly, it is undisputed that the flightcrew represents the most frequent primary cause factor in airline accidents. From a system perspective, machine actors such as the autopilot and human actors (the flightcrew) try to achieve goals (desired states of the aircraft). The set of activities to achieve a goal is called a function. In modern flightdecks both machine actors and human actors perform functions. Recent accident studies suggest that deficiencies in the flightcrew's ability to monitor how well either machines or themselves perform a function are a factor in many accidents and incidents. As humans are inherently bad monitors, this study proposes a method to automatically assess the status of a function in order to increase flight safety as part of an intelligent pilot aid, called the AgendaManager. The method was implemented for the capture altitude function: seeking to attain and maintain a target altitude. Fuzzy systems were used to compute outputs indicating how well the capture altitude function was performed from inputs describing the state of the aircraft. In order to conform to human expert assessments, the fuzzy systems were trained using a genetic algorithm (GA) whose objective was to minimize the discrepancy between system outputs and human expert assessments based on 72 scenarios. The resulting systems were validated by analyzing how well they conformed to new data drawn from another 32 scenarios. The results of the study indicated that even though the training procedure facilitated by the GA was able to improve conformance to human expert assessments, overall the systems performed too poorly to be deployed in a real environment. Nevertheless, experience and insights gained from the study will be valuable in the development of future automated systems to perform function assessment. / Graduation date: 1998

Modern commercial air travel is considered by most transportation specialists to be the safest of all forms of transportation. While safe, any loss of life is tragic and the only really acceptable state of commercial air transport safety is that of 'zero-tolerance' where no accident is acceptable. Research has demonstrated that the largest single causal component for airline accidents is the flightcrew. In addition, the recent automation of these machines has created many new safety concerns involving flightcrew situational awareness, human-machine interfacing, workload, attention, and complexity, to name a few. These concerns led to a series of studies developing, refining, and testing numerous aspects of this issue. The studies incorporated ASRS (Aviation Safety Reporting System) incident reports, NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) and other accident reports, and the development of a CTM (cockpit task management) system. The information gained from this research led to the development of an agent-based cockpit task aiding system termed the AgendaManager. A traditional text-based display similar to that used in the CTMS study was developed, optimized, and integrated with existing systems like EICAS (Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System) using a visual display development guide developed from a literature review. An alternate display incorporating graphics and located on the primary flight display (PFD) was also developed in an effort to improve pilot agenda management performance. Both of the interfaces were developed using a comprehensive visual display design guide compiled through a literature review. The Agenda Manager displays were tested in order to determine if the PFD enhancements improved agenda management performance. Eleven general aviation pilots participated in the study, three in the pilot study and eight in the main study. Results from the main study indicate little, if any, difference in agenda management performance in regards to the display format used. In general, the study demonstrated the usefulness of the display guidelines, importance of tracking instrument rating when using general aviation pilots in an experiment, and the equivalence of 'round-trip' scenarios. / Graduation date: 1998

The single biggest challenge facing municipalities today is a shortage of funds and labor for upgrading and expanding aging infrastructure. This continued lack of funding impairs the municipalities ability to maintain desired levels of service. Over the last decade, many Canadian municipalities have faced pressures of increasing complexity in infrastructure asset management decision-making which can be partly attributed to cost escalation, increasing service demand and interdependencies between networks. The goal of this research is to develop the framework for Asset Levels of Service (ALOS)-based decision support systems for municipal infrastructure network investment. The proposed framework is based on the fact that ALOS should be one of the main criteria for municipal infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation (MR&R). Since ALOS is based on qualitative and quantitative parameters, the use of ALOS in municipal infrastructure MR&R decisions will result in improved funding allocation. Secondary parameters used for municipal infrastructure investment decision making in the proposed framework are the physical deterioration of assets, future growth and the impact on the dependent infrastructure network. The proposed framework focuses on funding allocation for the MR&R of municipal networks. The framework is applicable to municipal infrastructure networks, excluding the other assets such as buildings, parks, etc. Application of the proposed framework is demonstrated by its implementation in the case of urban roads. Implementation is carried out in four phases. Phase I involves the quantification of ALOS for urban roads. Quantification of ALOS for urban roads has various challenges such as multiple users and interdependencies of levels of services between various users. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used to quantify ALOS. Phase II involves the determination of a multiattribute utility function for investment decision. Calculated multiattribute utility of investment decision is used in the multiobjective optimization model in Phase III. In Phase IV, the proposed methodology is incorporated into a computer application called OPTIsys (OPTImum Infrastructure SYStems). OPTIsys will facilitate MR&R decision making based on fully integrated considerations of ALOS, future demand and network interdependencies. Stakeholders benefiting from OPTIsys include the general public, asset-managers, infrastructure departments and municipal councils. OPTIsys will enable infrastructure departments to maintain the operational capability of the network in compliance with the targeted levels of service. Overall, municipalities will be able to reduce the infrastructure deficit while maximizing economic returns. / Construction Engineering and Management

The current project is an examination of the effectiveness of decision-support graphics in a simulated real-world task, and of the role those graphics should play in training. It is also an attempt to apply a theoretical account of memory performance-transfer-appropriate processing-to naturalistic decision making. The task in question is a low-fidelity air traffic control simulation. In some conditions, that task includes decision-support graphics designed to explicitly represent elements of the task that normally must be mentally represented-namely, trajectory and relative altitude. The assumption is that those graphics will encourage a type of processing different from that used in their absence. If so, then according to the theory of transfer-appropriate processing (TAP), the best performance should occur in conditions in which the graphics are present either during both training and testing, or else not at all. For other conditions, the inconsistent presence or absence of the graphics should lead to mismatches in the type of processing used during training and testing, thus hurting performance. A sample of 205 undergraduate students were randomly assigned to four experimental and two control groups. The results showed that the support graphics provided immediate performance benefits, regardless of their presence during training. However, presenting them during training had an apparent overshadowing effect, in that removing them during testing significantly hurt performance. Finally, although no support was found for TAP, some support was found for the similar but more general theory of identical elements.

Industrial energy efficiency is one of the most important means of reducing the threat of increased global warming. A higheruse of electricity than their European competitors, together with increased energy costs due to increasing energy prices in Swedish industry have negative impacts on results and competitiveness. Of great importance are thus different means which promote energy efficiency such as industrial energy policy instruments. However, cost-effective energy efficiency measuresare not always undertaken. In order to formulate and adopt accurate industrial energy end-use polices, it is thus of importanceto identify the barriers that inhibit the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency measures. It is also of importance to identify the factors which promote the implementation. The aim of this thesis is to analyze industrial energy systems andmore specifically study factors that promote or inhibit energy end-use efficiency in Swedish industrial companies. Results from this thesis show that the implementation of technical energy efficiency measures is a major means for both energy-intensive and non-energy-intensive Swedish companies to overcome the threat of rising energy prices, for example for electricity. While energy efficiency measures in the non-energy-intensive industry are related mainly to support processes, measures in the studied energy-intensive Swedish foundry industry are related to both support and production processes. In the various case studies of barriers and driving forces, the most significant barriers to energy efficiency - with largevariations for some of the barriers among the studied cases - were found to be: technical risk such as risk of productiondisruptions; lack of time or other priorities; lack of access to capital; cost of production disruption/hassle/inconvenience; other priorities for capital investments; technology considered inappropriate at the site; difficulty/cost of obtaininginformation about the energy use of purchased equipment; and lack of budget funding. The largest driving forces, apart fromcost reductions resulting from lowered energy use, were found to be the existence of a long-term energy strategy and peoplewith real ambition. These driving forces did not, unlike the results of barriers to energy efficiency, vary widely across thestudied sectors. Investment decision support such as optimization has shown to add more information for larger capital-intensive investmentsin energy-intensive industrial SMEs. The thesis also showed that energy audits are an effective means, in terms of publicmoney spent per kWh saved, of providing the industry with information on potential energy efficiency measures. Based on the results presented in this thesis, a policy approach towards non-energy-intensive companies and industrial SMEsshould primarily include providing energy audits free of charge and involve the local authority energy consultants. / Industriell energieffektivisering är ett av de viktigaste sätten att reducera hotet om en globaluppvärmning. En högre relativ elanvändning, i jämförelse med europeiska konkurrenter, tillsammans med stigande energikostnader beroende av stigande energipriser för den svenskaindustrin, riskerar leda till försämrad lönsamhet och försämrad konkurrenskraft. Det är såledesav stor vikt att främja energieffektivisering, exempelvis genom olika typer av styrmedel. Lönsamma energieffektiviseringsåtgärder genomförs emellertid inte alltid, till följd av olikahinder för energieffektivisering. För att kunna formulera precisa styrmedel är det därför avstor vikt att dessa hinder som förhindrar implementering av energieffektiviserande åtgärder,identifieras. Det är också av stor vikt att identifiera drivkrafterna. Syftet med denna avhandling är att analysera industriella energisystem och mera specifikt studera faktorer somfrämjar och förhindrar effektiv slutanvändning av energi i svensk industri. Resultaten visar att hotet om stigande energikostnader, exempelvis beträffande elektricitet,både för icke energiintensiv och för energiintensiv svensk tillverkningsindustri, kan reduceraskraftigt om energieffektiv teknik implementeras. Medan åtgärder i icke energiintensiv industrifrämst är relaterade till stödprocesser så visar sig åtgärderna i den studerade svenska energiintensiva gjuteriindustrin vara relaterade till både stöd- och produktionsprocesser. I fallstudierna beträffande hinder och drivkrafter visade sig de största hindren vara - med storavariationer mellan fallen - tekniska risker såsom risk för produktionsstörningar och avbrott; brist på tid/andra prioriteringar; brist på kapital; kostnader för produktionsstörningar; ickeenergirelaterade investeringar prioriteras högre; tekniken passar ej för företaget;svårigheter/kostnader att erhålla korrekt information beträffande energianvändningen av deninköpta utrustningen; och brist på budgetmedel. De största drivkrafterna var, utöver kostnadsminskningar till följd av minskad energianvändning, förekomsten av en långsiktigenergistrategi och en eldsjäl. Drivkrafterna varierade inte, till skillnad mot hindren, så mycketmellan de olika undersökta fallen. Beslutsstöd såsom exempelvis optimering har visat sig kunna ge ökad information vid störremer kapitalintensiva investeringar i energiintensiva små- och medelstora företag. Vidare har energianalyser visat sig vara ett effektivt sätt, i termer av besparad kWh per statligt insattkrona, att ge industrin information beträffande möjliga energieffektiviserande åtgärder. Resultat från avhandlingen indikerar att ett stöd gentemot icke energiintensiva och små och medelstora företag framförallt bör inkludera statligt finansierade energianalyser med denlokala energirådgivaren som en deltagande aktör.

Patient data in health care have traditionally been used to support direct patient care. Although there is great potential in combining such data with genetic information from patients to improve diagnosis and therapy decisions (i.e. personalized medicine) and in secondary uses such as data mining, this is complex to realize due to technical, commercial and legal issues related with combining and refining patient data. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) are great catalysts for enabling evidence-based medicine in clinical practice. Although patient data can be the base for CDSS logic, it is often scattered among heterogenous data sources (even in different health care centers). Data integration and subsequent data mining must consider codification of patient data with terminology systems in addition to legal and ethical aspects of using such data. Although computerization of the patient record systems has been underway for a long time, some data is still unstructured. Investigation regarding the feasibility of using electronic patient records (EPR) as data sources for data mining is therefore important. Association rules can be used as a base for CDSS development. Logic representation affect the usability of the systems and the possibility of providing explanations of the generated advice. Several properties of these rules are relatively easy to explain (such as support and confidence), which in itself can improve end-user confidence in advice from CDSS. Information from information sources other than the EPR can also be important for diagnosis and/or treatment decisions. Drug prescription is a process that is particularly dependent on reliable information regarding, among other things, drug-drug interactions which can have serious effects. CDSS and other information systems are not useful unless they are available at the time and location of patient care. This motivates using mobile devices for CDSS. Information structures of interactions affect representation in informatics systems. These structures can be represented using a category theory based implementation of rough sets (rough monads). Development of guidelines and CDSS can be based on existing guidelines with connections to external information systems that validate advice given the particular patient situation (for example, previously prescribed drugs may interact with recommended drugs by CDSS). Rules for CDSS can also be generated directly from patient data but this assumes that such data is structured and representative. Although there is great potential in CDSS to improve the quality and efficiency of health care, these systems must be properly integrated with existing processes in health care (workflows) and with other information systems. Health care workflows manage physical resources such as patients and doctors and can help to standardize care processes and support management decisions through workflow simulation. Such simulations allow information bottle-necks or insufficient resources (equipment, personnel) to be identified. As personalized medicine using genetic information of patients become economically feasible, computational requirements increase. In this sense, distributing computations through web services and system-oriented workflows can complement human-oriented workflows. Issues related to dynamic service discovery, semantic annotations of data, service inputs/outputs affect the feasibility of system-oriented workflow construction and sharing. Additionally, sharing of system-oriented workflows increase the possibilities of peer-review and workflow re-usage.

This thesis presents the framework of a complex business process driven event stream processing system to produce meaningful output with direct implications to the business objectives of an organization. This framework is demonstrated using a case study instantiating the management of a newborn infant with hypoglycaemia. Business processes defined within guidelines, are defined at build-time while critical knowledge found in the definition of business processes are used to support their enactment for stream analysis. Four major research contributions are delivered. The first contribution enables the definition and enactment of complex business processes in real-time. The second contribution supports the extraction of business process using knowledge found within the initial expression of the business process. The third contribution allows for the explicit use of temporal abstraction and stream analysis knowledge to support enactment in real-time. Finally, the last contribution is the real-time integration of heterogeneous streams based on Service-Oriented Architecture principles. / UOIT

Osteoporosis is a major public health concern, affecting over 200 million people worldwide. There is valid evidence outlining how osteoporosis can be diagnosed and managed, but gaps exist between evidence and practice. Graham’s “Knowledge to Action” (KTA) process for knowledge translation and the Medical Research Council (MRC) framework for complex interventions were used to address these gaps. The first 4 KTA steps were collapsed into 3 phases of the PhD research plan. In PhD Phase 1, a systematic review was conducted to identify tools that facilitate decision making in osteoporosis disease management (DM). Results showed that few DM tools exist, but promising strategies were those that incorporated reminders and education and targeted physicians and patients. PhD Phase 2 used the findings from the systematic review and consultation with clinical and human factors engineering experts to develop a conceptual design of the tool. Multiple components targeted to both physicians and patients at the point of care, and which could be used as a standalone system or modifiable for integration with electronic health record systems were outlined. PhD Phases 3a and 3b were devoted to the assessment of the barriers to knowledge. In Phase 3a, a qualitative study of focus groups was conducted with physicians to identify attitudes and perceived barriers to implementing decision support tools in practice, and to identify the features that should be included in the design. Findings from 4 focus groups combined with aging research, and input from design and information experts were used to transform the conceptual design into a functional prototype. In Phase 3b, each component of the prototype was tested in 3 usability evaluation studies using an iterative, participant-centered approach to assess how well the prototype met end users’ needs. Findings from the usability study informed the final prototype, which is ready for implementation as part of the post PhD plan to fulfill the requirements of the remaining steps of the KTA and MRC frameworks.