O planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico é uma das principais atividades em uma distribuidora de energia elétrica, representando uma grande parcela dos investimentos realizados pelas distribuidoras para atender a demanda dos consumidores e os critérios estabelecidos pela agência reguladora (ANEEL). As empresas buscam o apoio de métodos multicritério no processo decisório de investimento, para otimizar e priorizar, com o intuito de obterem êxito na elaboração de um plano de obras que contemple aspectos técnicos e econômicos. A revisão sistêmica da literatura foi realizada em trabalhos de relevância para o tema em estudo, com auxílio de cinco bases de dados. O referencial teórico, que totaliza 52 publicações, apresenta conceitos teóricos sobre o processo decisório através de métodos multicritério de apoio à decisão, bem como exemplifica, através de aplicações práticas como os métodos estão sendo utilizados na área de energia. Com base nesta revisão foi possível estruturar a aplicação da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (MAUT) em um processo decisório de investimento para fins de planejamento da expansão do sistema de distribuição em uma concessionária distribuidora de energia elétrica. Com a aplicação do método fica evidenciada a importância de um procedimento formal para auxiliar os decisores na hierarquização de forma objetiva dos alimentadores de energia elétrica mais críticos, proporcionando maior clareza e aprendizado em todo o processo de planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico. Ao final, desenvolveu-se uma ferramenta para tratamento do grande volume de dados, que disponibiliza as informações depuradas para auxiliar na tomada decisão de investimento em ações eficientes, que melhorem a qualidade do fornecimento e atendam o crescimento do sistema. A partir da revisão bibliográfica e com a aplicação do método, oportunidades para estudos futuros foram identificadas. / The expansion planning of the electric system is one of the main activities in an electric energy distributor, representing a large part of the investments made by the distributors to meet the consumer demand and the criteria established by the regulatory agency (ANEEL). The companies seek the support of multi-criteria methods in the investment decision-making process, to optimize and prioritize, in order to succeed in the elaboration of a work plan which contemplates technical and economic aspects. The systemic review of the literature was carried out in current and relevant articles for the subject under study, with the aid of five database sources. The theoretical reference, which totals 52 publications, presents theoretical concepts on the decision process through multicriteria methods of decision support, as well as exemplifies through practical applications how the methods are have been used in the area of energy. Based on this review, it was possible to structure the application of the Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) in an investment decision process for the purpose of planning the expansion of the distribution system in an electric power distribution concessionaire. The application of the method shows the importance of a formal procedure to assist decision makers in the objective hierarchy of the most critical electric power feeders, providing greater clarity and learning throughout the planning process of the expansion of the electric system. In the end, a tool was developed to treat the large volume of data, which provides the purified information to assist in the decision making of investment in assertive actions that improve the quality of supply and meet growth of the system. From the literature review and with the application of the method, opportunities for future studies have been identified.

Les dispositifs médicaux (DM) innovants offrent sans cesse de nouvelles options thérapeutiques et diagnostiques et contribuent à améliorer la prise en charge des malades à l’hôpital. Toutefois, ces innovations, potentiellement onéreuses, ne disposent pas toujours de données probantes garantissant leur efficience. Par conséquent, pour guider le choix des décideurs hospitaliers, une évaluation à l’échelle de l’hôpital est souvent nécessaire afin de lever le maximum d’incertitudes avant leur acquisition. Cette démarche, appelée évaluation des technologies de santé (ETS) en milieu hospitalier, s’est beaucoup développée à l’étranger, mais reste méconnue en France. A travers notre travail, nous avons montré que les CHU français proposaient des modèles d’organisation pour l’évaluation des DM innovants tout à fait comparables à ceux rencontrés dans d’autres pays. Parmi les modèles d’ETS en milieu hospitalier, la mini-ETS semble être le plus généralisable et pourrait concourir à l’harmonisation des pratiques entre CHU. Ce modèle en plein essor existe sous de multiples formes dans le monde. La confrontation des critères d’évaluation identifiés dans les modèles assimilables à la mini-ETS à ceux utilisés dans les CHU français nous a permis d’isoler 26 critères d’évaluation d’intérêt pour l’évaluation des DM innovants. Enfin, nous avons élaboré puis testé, en situation réelle, un outil d’aide multicritère à la décision dérivé des précédents critères identifiés. / Innovative medical devices offer solutions to medical problems. However, medical devices arriving on the European market have generally little evidence about efficiency. To manage the uncertainty surrounding the introduction of innovative medical devices, hospitals and university hospitals have developed worldwide hospital-based health technology assessment (HTA) processes to guide the selection of expensive and innovative products. Nevertheless, little is known about hospital-based HTA activities in France. We demonstrated that French models of hospital-based HTA are comparable to those found elsewhere and presented sometimes a combination of several HTA models. We also underlined that a mini-HTA like model could easily be applied to French university hospitals. Mini-HTA has become widespread in many different forms across the world. We compared criteria of different mini-HTA forms to criteria used in French university hospitals and identified 26 relevant criteria to assess innovative medical devices. Finally, we developed and tested in real conditions a multiple-criteria decision tool derived from these 26 criteria.

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) in the UK has seen a low level of uptake relative to similar settings such as Australia and Germany. The relatively low cost of municipal water in the UK limits the financial savings associated with RWH systems, especially in a domestic setting. Although financial benefits can be relatively low (in terms of reduced water bills), academic and practitioner studies have demonstrated the potential for RWH to significantly reduce potable water demands at typical UK houses. Hence, increased uptake of RWH has potential to contribute to mitigating droughts in water scarce regions. Stormwater management in the UK is receiving increasing attention at all levels; from grass-roots sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as downpipe disconnections and raingardens; through to implementation of urban realm attenuation schemes and continued development of guidance from UK policy makers. The public realm nature of most SuDS presents a need for partnership approaches to be fostered between infrastructure mangers and the general public. The application of RWH as a technology within the SuDS management train has been limited in the UK as policy makers have taken the view that RWH tanks may be full at the start of a design storm, and thus the potential for attenuation and peak discharge reduction has been largely ignored. However, in the last few years there has been a shift in emphasis; from RWH perceived purely as a water demand management technology to a focus on its wider benefits e.g. mitigating surface water flooding through improved stormwater management. RWH systems examined in this thesis are now available which offer multiple benefits to both end-users and water service providers. The application of RWH in a dual purpose configuration (to displace potable water demands and control stormwater discharges) has seen increasing interest during the development of this thesis. However, the successful design of RWH as a stormwater management tool requires a series of calculations to be completed. To date, practitioners have frequently relied upon low-resolution heuristic methods which lead to a small range of configurations being deployed, with minimal demonstrable stormwater control benefits. In this thesis, full details of novel and traditional RWH technologies were identified and described. Empirical data was collected, both in laboratory conditions and at field sites, to identify the real world operating characteristics of a range of RWH configurations. Additionally a new time series evaluation methodology was developed to enable RWH systems to be designed and analysed. This method quantifies water demand benefits and also focusses on stormwater management metrics (i.e. largest annual discharge and total discharge volume per year). The method was developed to enable a range of RWH configurations to be evaluated at a given site. In addition, a decision support tool (RainWET) was developed and tested which enabled the methods to be deployed in real world settings. The application of the RainWET software allowed a UK-wide, time series analysis of RWH configurations to be completed and the holistic benefits of a range of dual purpose RWH systems to be analysed and described. Evidence from the UK study suggests that a traditional RWH installation (3000l storage, 300l/day demand and 60m2 roof) installed at a house in a water scarce region (London, SAAR 597mm) was able to fully mitigate stormwater overflows over a 20 year analysis whilst providing a mean water saving of 31,255l/annum. An equivalent system located in the wettest region studied (Truro, SAAR 1099mm) saw mean reductions in the largest annual storm of 62% (range 35-86%) whilst satisfying a mean rainwater demand of 50,912l/annum. The study concluded that suitably designed dual purpose RWH systems offered better stormwater management benefits than those designed without a stormwater control device. In addition, the integration of smart RWH controls were shown to maximise stormwater control benefits with little or no reduction in a system’s ability to satisfy non-potable water demands.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

A conceptual site model (CSM) is simply a description of the environmental conditions at a contaminated site and surrounding area, which provides all interested parties with a vision of the site. CSM mainly identifies the source-pathway&amp / #8208 / receptor linkage to guide for effective site characterization, risk assessment and remedial investigations. Development of CSM is complicated because it is &lsquo / case specific&rsquo / and there is no single route to follow during decision making concerning the contaminated site. Moreover, type and extent of information needed varies according to size and level of contamination and site heterogeneity. The objective of this study is to develop a decision support tool that guides the site assessors during identification of possible decision routes that can be encountered / the procedure to be followed / and the information and data to be collected at each stage. This tool also introduces interactions between CSM andsampling strategies designed for various purposes. Developed decision support tool adapts to each specific contaminated site. Furthermore, a detailed review of sampling strategies is presented as a guidance for site assessors. The decision support tool is equipped with standardized tools used for CSM development, i.e. information/data collection forms, illustrative tools and exposure pathway diagram. Information on site, geology, hydrogeology, contamination source, contaminants and receptors is collected via CSM form. Illustrative tools may vary from very simple site sketches to very complex 3D drawings depending on the needs of the specific contamination cases. Exposure pathway diagram (EPD) is used to identify all transport mechanisms and potential exposure pathways. EPD is embedded into a user&amp / #8208 / friendly decision assistance tool based on Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic for Applications. The applicability and utility of the decision support tool was tested using two case studies. Case study applications indicated that the developed methodology satisfies the objectives aimed in this study.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

Poor estrus detection can limit the reproductive performance of a dairy herd. One objective of this research was to evaluate an alternative method to traditional estrus detection in the form of automated monitoring technologies. To accomplish this, the first study considered the ability of automatically monitored parameters (activity, number of steps, lying bouts, lying time, feeding time, rumination time, and temperature) to detect estrus. A second study compared automated activity monitoring to timed artificial insemination as reproductive management strategies on commercial herds. The other objective of this research was to evaluate the economic potential of automated estrus detection technologies. This was accomplished by creating and evaluating a farm specific decision support tool to determine the net present value of adopting an automated estrus detection technology.

In recent years the industry has been exhorted to increase its use of offsite technologies, or 'Modem Methods of Construction', in order to address the under-supply and poor build quality of housing. Despite the well-rehearsed benefits of such technologies, the take-up within the industry has been slow. Many studies have attempted to scrutinise the barriers and seek solutions, but the perspectives and practices of housebuilders of using offsite remain unclear. This is significant given that housebuilders contribute nearly 90% to the housing unit completions by the industry overall. This thesis aims to provide a strategy for optimising the use of offsite in housebuilding by investigating UK housebuilders' views on, and utilisations of, such technologies. This has been achieved through a combination of a survey of the top 100 firms, a one and-half-year case study of a large housebuilding organisation, and a series of validation interviews and group exercises, within the existing theoretical framework. The thesis reveals that the current low level of offsite usage in large housebuilders was likely to increase given the pressures to improve quality, time, cost, productivity and health & safety. However, a wider take-up was inhibited by perceived higher capital costs, interfacing problems, long lead-in time, delayed planning process and current manufacturing capacity. For addressing this a framework of strategies is presented, surrounding changing the industry's perceptions, improving procurement, providing better cost data, tackling planning and regulations, encouraging political levers, and providing guidance on decision-making and offsite integration. The thesis then contextualises these findings into the organisational and project contexts, examining the historical and current offsite practices within the general housebuilding business. It reveals that housebuilders primarily aspired to improve business efficiency and mitigate financial risks through the use of offsite despite a complicated agenda for such usage. For using offsite housebuilders developed strategies centred on process, procurement, learning & benchmarking, and training. However, the current heuristic approach to decision-making, coupled with the lack of knowledge of build system selection (BSS) for housebuilding, prevents the benefits from offsite being fully realised. A robust, structured and transparent decision support tool for BSS is developed, transferring knowledge in operational and construction management research to the housebuilding context. It provides an improved decision-making process and databases for system selection. Both the process and data were validated within the wider industry and academic domain, by which the tool was claimed as an effective mechanism for optimising the use of offsite and enhancing organisational learning. The thesis contributes to a better theoretical understanding of offsite and provides strategies for its increased take-up in housebuilding. This helps housebuilding organisations to achieve long-term profitability, but also contributes to addressing the current under-supply of housing. The thesis also contributes to knowledge of decisionmaking and construction management research. This has an implication for wider organisational and decision theory.

O planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico é uma das principais atividades em uma distribuidora de energia elétrica, representando uma grande parcela dos investimentos realizados pelas distribuidoras para atender a demanda dos consumidores e os critérios estabelecidos pela agência reguladora (ANEEL). As empresas buscam o apoio de métodos multicritério no processo decisório de investimento, para otimizar e priorizar, com o intuito de obterem êxito na elaboração de um plano de obras que contemple aspectos técnicos e econômicos. A revisão sistêmica da literatura foi realizada em trabalhos de relevância para o tema em estudo, com auxílio de cinco bases de dados. O referencial teórico, que totaliza 52 publicações, apresenta conceitos teóricos sobre o processo decisório através de métodos multicritério de apoio à decisão, bem como exemplifica, através de aplicações práticas como os métodos estão sendo utilizados na área de energia. Com base nesta revisão foi possível estruturar a aplicação da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (MAUT) em um processo decisório de investimento para fins de planejamento da expansão do sistema de distribuição em uma concessionária distribuidora de energia elétrica. Com a aplicação do método fica evidenciada a importância de um procedimento formal para auxiliar os decisores na hierarquização de forma objetiva dos alimentadores de energia elétrica mais críticos, proporcionando maior clareza e aprendizado em todo o processo de planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico. Ao final, desenvolveu-se uma ferramenta para tratamento do grande volume de dados, que disponibiliza as informações depuradas para auxiliar na tomada decisão de investimento em ações eficientes, que melhorem a qualidade do fornecimento e atendam o crescimento do sistema. A partir da revisão bibliográfica e com a aplicação do método, oportunidades para estudos futuros foram identificadas. / The expansion planning of the electric system is one of the main activities in an electric energy distributor, representing a large part of the investments made by the distributors to meet the consumer demand and the criteria established by the regulatory agency (ANEEL). The companies seek the support of multi-criteria methods in the investment decision-making process, to optimize and prioritize, in order to succeed in the elaboration of a work plan which contemplates technical and economic aspects. The systemic review of the literature was carried out in current and relevant articles for the subject under study, with the aid of five database sources. The theoretical reference, which totals 52 publications, presents theoretical concepts on the decision process through multicriteria methods of decision support, as well as exemplifies through practical applications how the methods are have been used in the area of energy. Based on this review, it was possible to structure the application of the Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) in an investment decision process for the purpose of planning the expansion of the distribution system in an electric power distribution concessionaire. The application of the method shows the importance of a formal procedure to assist decision makers in the objective hierarchy of the most critical electric power feeders, providing greater clarity and learning throughout the planning process of the expansion of the electric system. In the end, a tool was developed to treat the large volume of data, which provides the purified information to assist in the decision making of investment in assertive actions that improve the quality of supply and meet growth of the system. From the literature review and with the application of the method, opportunities for future studies have been identified.

O planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico é uma das principais atividades em uma distribuidora de energia elétrica, representando uma grande parcela dos investimentos realizados pelas distribuidoras para atender a demanda dos consumidores e os critérios estabelecidos pela agência reguladora (ANEEL). As empresas buscam o apoio de métodos multicritério no processo decisório de investimento, para otimizar e priorizar, com o intuito de obterem êxito na elaboração de um plano de obras que contemple aspectos técnicos e econômicos. A revisão sistêmica da literatura foi realizada em trabalhos de relevância para o tema em estudo, com auxílio de cinco bases de dados. O referencial teórico, que totaliza 52 publicações, apresenta conceitos teóricos sobre o processo decisório através de métodos multicritério de apoio à decisão, bem como exemplifica, através de aplicações práticas como os métodos estão sendo utilizados na área de energia. Com base nesta revisão foi possível estruturar a aplicação da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (MAUT) em um processo decisório de investimento para fins de planejamento da expansão do sistema de distribuição em uma concessionária distribuidora de energia elétrica. Com a aplicação do método fica evidenciada a importância de um procedimento formal para auxiliar os decisores na hierarquização de forma objetiva dos alimentadores de energia elétrica mais críticos, proporcionando maior clareza e aprendizado em todo o processo de planejamento da expansão do sistema elétrico. Ao final, desenvolveu-se uma ferramenta para tratamento do grande volume de dados, que disponibiliza as informações depuradas para auxiliar na tomada decisão de investimento em ações eficientes, que melhorem a qualidade do fornecimento e atendam o crescimento do sistema. A partir da revisão bibliográfica e com a aplicação do método, oportunidades para estudos futuros foram identificadas. / The expansion planning of the electric system is one of the main activities in an electric energy distributor, representing a large part of the investments made by the distributors to meet the consumer demand and the criteria established by the regulatory agency (ANEEL). The companies seek the support of multi-criteria methods in the investment decision-making process, to optimize and prioritize, in order to succeed in the elaboration of a work plan which contemplates technical and economic aspects. The systemic review of the literature was carried out in current and relevant articles for the subject under study, with the aid of five database sources. The theoretical reference, which totals 52 publications, presents theoretical concepts on the decision process through multicriteria methods of decision support, as well as exemplifies through practical applications how the methods are have been used in the area of energy. Based on this review, it was possible to structure the application of the Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT) in an investment decision process for the purpose of planning the expansion of the distribution system in an electric power distribution concessionaire. The application of the method shows the importance of a formal procedure to assist decision makers in the objective hierarchy of the most critical electric power feeders, providing greater clarity and learning throughout the planning process of the expansion of the electric system. In the end, a tool was developed to treat the large volume of data, which provides the purified information to assist in the decision making of investment in assertive actions that improve the quality of supply and meet growth of the system. From the literature review and with the application of the method, opportunities for future studies have been identified.