Este trabalho apresenta um estudo da interação do desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro ocorrido no século XX com a transição demográfica da mesma época. A mudança de comportamento da população brasileira nos mostra grande influência da economia, mas também que a evolução demográfica foi essencial para o desempenho econômico. O Brasil chegou ao final do século passado completamente diferente, tanto no âmbito econômico como demográfico, do país de 1900. Quando o centro da pirâmide etária brasileira alargou, o país pôde aproveitar uma indispensável variável para o desenvolvimento econômico, o capital humano. O Brasil termina o século XX com a maioria de sua população em idade ativa e vivendo um período de “Bônus Demográfico”, condição propícia ao desenvolvimento econômico. Resta agora aproveitar os resultados destas mudanças. / This paper presents a study of the interaction of Brazilian economic development occurred in the twentieth century with the demographic transition at the same era. The population’s behaviour change shows great influence of the economy, but also that the demographic evolution was essential to economic performance. Brazil has reached the end of the last century completely different, both in economic and demographic scope, from the population of 1900.When the centre of the Brazilian age pyramid widened, the country could enjoy a vital crucial variable for economic development, human capital. Brazil ends the century with most of its population at working age and living in a period of "demographic bonus", a condition conducive to economic development. It remains now to enjoy the results of these changes.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo da interação do desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro ocorrido no século XX com a transição demográfica da mesma época. A mudança de comportamento da população brasileira nos mostra grande influência da economia, mas também que a evolução demográfica foi essencial para o desempenho econômico. O Brasil chegou ao final do século passado completamente diferente, tanto no âmbito econômico como demográfico, do país de 1900. Quando o centro da pirâmide etária brasileira alargou, o país pôde aproveitar uma indispensável variável para o desenvolvimento econômico, o capital humano. O Brasil termina o século XX com a maioria de sua população em idade ativa e vivendo um período de “Bônus Demográfico”, condição propícia ao desenvolvimento econômico. Resta agora aproveitar os resultados destas mudanças. / This paper presents a study of the interaction of Brazilian economic development occurred in the twentieth century with the demographic transition at the same era. The population’s behaviour change shows great influence of the economy, but also that the demographic evolution was essential to economic performance. Brazil has reached the end of the last century completely different, both in economic and demographic scope, from the population of 1900.When the centre of the Brazilian age pyramid widened, the country could enjoy a vital crucial variable for economic development, human capital. Brazil ends the century with most of its population at working age and living in a period of "demographic bonus", a condition conducive to economic development. It remains now to enjoy the results of these changes.

Este trabalho analisa as relações entre o processo de transição demográfica pelo qual o Brasil está passando e o crescimento econômico. Levando em consideração o que os demógrafos denominam de “janela de oportunidade demográfica”, o Brasil tem hoje uma potencialidade única para acelerar o crescimento econômico e conduzir o país para um desenvolvimento sustentado. O trabalho está dividido em três capítulos. Partindo da discussão filosófica entre o iluminista Marquês de Condorcet e o pastor anglicano Thomas Malthus, apresenta-se a teoria da transição demográfica e a relação entre transição demográfica e desenvolvimento econômico, com destaque para a transição das tendências de mortalidade e de fecundidade. O processo de transição demográfica que o Brasil está passando e as possibilidades de crescimento econômico advindas da demografia são apresentadas no segundo capitulo. No último, são discutidos dois pontos essenciais para o sucesso de qualquer política que vise crescimento econômico sustentável: o mercado de trabalho brasileiro e o sistema educacional do país. Apresenta-se, também, uma análise da desigualdade social no Brasil. Considerando-se que as oportunidades demográficas se apresentam tão somente por este lado, procura-se demonstrar a importância da inserção do componente populacional na agenda das políticas públicas como um fator que pode contribuir para a aceleração do crescimento econômico do Brasil. Caso contrário, o componente demográfico reduzirá sua eficiência e o país se afastará dos objetivos de um desenvolvimento econômico com redução das desigualdades sociais. / This work analyzes the relationship between the process of demographic transition, through which Brazil is going, and the economic growth. Taking into consideration what the demographers call “window of demographic opportunity”, Brazil has a unique potentiality to speed up the economic growth and lead the country to the sustainable development. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of the demographic transition and the relationship between the demographic transition and the economic development is based on the philosophic discussion between the illuminist Marquis de Condorcet and the Anglican minister Thomas Malthus, with emphasis on the transition of the mortality and fertility tendencies. The demographic transition process Brazil is going through and the possibilities of the economic growth arising from the demography are presented in the second chapter. The last chapter discusses two essential points for the success of any policy that aims at the sustainable economic growth: Brazilian labor market and educational system of the country. Furthermore, the social inequality is analyzed as well. Considering that the demographic opportunities are only presented from this viewpoint, the work tries to show the importance of introducing the populational component in the agenda of the public policies as a factor that may contribute to speeding up the economic growth in Brazil. Otherwise, the demographic component will reduce its efficiency and the country will stray from the objectives of economic development aimed at reducing the social inequalities.

The aim of this thesis is to summarize and extend the findings of the second demographic transition in the Czech Republic. To show sociological changes that occurred after the beginning of the second demographic transition. The aim is to estimate time series models of individual demographic indicators before and after the second demographic transition. Predictions of selected demographic indicators are based on Swedis demographic time series.

Orientadores: Tirza Aidar, Emerson Soares dos Santos / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T09:09:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alencar_LeilaAuxiliadoradeArruda_D.pdf: 4236140 bytes, checksum: 3af39c092380f145f777f7e09be929ac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Objetivo do presente estudo foi identificar as desigualdades socioespaciais refletidas na saúde da população idosa residente na cidade de Cuiabá. Trata-se de estudo ecológico descritivo com um componente temporal e outro espacial que analisou dados sobre população e da mortalidade aos 60 anos e mais de idade de residentes em Cuiabá. Informações sobre população e variáveis ambientais e econômicas foram obtidas dos censos demográficos de 2000 e 2010 do IBGE. Informações sobre óbitos foram extraídas da base municipal do Sistema de Informações de Mortalidade da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Cuiabá, georefenciados segundo bairros de residência no município. Procedeu-se a análise fatorial que possibilitou formar grupos de bairros homogêneos (clusters) segundo características ambientais e socioeconômicas. A distribuição geográfica das taxas de mortalidade pelas principais causas nos agrupamentos de bairros de Cuiabá mostrou que clusters mais ricos e desenvolvidos socioeconomicamente apresentaram menores taxas de mortalidade por doenças circulatórias e respiratórias e maiores taxas de mortalidade por neoplasias. Idosos de 60 a 69 anos são os mais vulneráveis às piores condições de vida do cluster, quando comparados aos mais idosos. Ou seja, os riscos para esse grupo etário residente nos clusters com piores indicadores sobre condição de vida foram maiores quando comparados aos demais. As mulheres sofrem mais ação das condições sociais dos clusters que os homens. Ficou evidenciada a importância das condições socioeconômicas e a heterogeneidade como estas mortes acontecem nos diferentes espaços físicos e sociais da cidade / Abstract: This study aims at identifying the socio spatial inequalities reflected in the health of the elderly population that lives in the city of Cuiabá. It is a descriptive ecological study with a temporal and spatial component which analyzed data about the population and mortality of people living in Cuiabá aged 60 and over. Data on the population and environmental and economic variables were obtained from the demographic censuses of 2000 and 2010 of the IBGE. Data on deaths were drawn from the municipal base of the Mortality Information System of the Municipal Health Office of Cuiabá, according to the neighborhoods of the municipality. Factorial analysis was done in order to form groups of homogeneous neighborhood (clusters) according to environmental and socioeconomic characteristics. The geographic distribution of mortality rates due to the main causes in the neighborhood clusters of Cuiabá showed that richer and socioeconomically developed clusters presented lower mortality rates due to circulatory and respiratory diseases and higher mortality rates due to neoplasias. Elderly aged 60 to 69 are the most vulnerable to the worst cluster living conditions than those above that age. That is, the risks for this age group that lives in the clusters with the worst indicators on life condition were higher when compared to the others. Women suffer more actions from the social conditions of the clusters than men. The study revealed the importance of the socio economic conditions and heterogeneity as these deaths occur in the different physical and social spaces of the city / Doutorado / Demografia / Doutora em Demografia

abstract: Evolutionary and economic theories of fertility variation argue that novel subsistence opportunities associated with market economies shape reproduction in ways that both increase parental investment per child and lower overall fertility. I use demographic and ethnographic data from Guatemala as a case study to illustrate how ethnic inequalities in accessing market opportunities have shaped demographic variation and the perceptions of parental investments. I then discuss two projects that use secondary data sets to address issues of conceptualizing and operationalizing market opportunities in national and cross-population comparative work. The first argues that social relationships are critical means of accessing market opportunities, and uses Guatemala household stocks of certain forms of relational wealth are associated with greater parental investments in education. The second focuses on a methodological issue in how common measures of wealth in comparative demographic studies conflate economic capacity with market opportunities, and how this conceptual confusion biases our interpretations of the observed links between wealth and fertility over the course of the demographic transition. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Anthropology 2019

The following study aims to examine the infant mortality in Kronoberg county in southern Sweden during four intervals 1820–1840, 1860–1880, 1900–1920 and 1930–1949, and thereby during the three latter stages of the demographic transition. The empirical data has been obtained from the region's central town, Växjö, and 16 different parishes on the countryside. As stated, the main issue is to study the development of infant mortality, but also to investigate whether there was any regional variation and whether the mortality was higher among the illegitimate children. The results show that infant mortality decreased from 173 to 35 per mille and that the urban parts of the study area initially had the highest mortality, but until the last interval it was lo­west in the urban environment. The highest infant mortality rate was observed among those born out of wedlock, which also declined from 262 to 65 per thousand throughout the studied periods.

Division One: “Malthus Gets Fat” (Two Chapters) Chapter One develops a simple dynamic model to examine the takeoff from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It finds that several factors, most notably the rate of technological progress and the economic structure, determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. It is only when this maximum sustainable rate exceeds the peak rate at which a society expands that takeoff can occur. I also investigate the effects of trade and international income transfers on the ability to sustain takeoff. It is also shown that present income growth is not necessarily indicative of the ability to sustain takeoff and that factors which increase current income growth may actually inhibit takeoff, and vice versa. Chapter Two applies the sustainable population growth framework to Britain during the Industrial Revolution. The model shows a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production. At least until the middle of the 19th Century, coal, capital and trade played a minor role. Division Two: “Leverage and Financial Market Instability” (Four Chapters) Chapter One develops a model of how leverage induces explosive behavior in financial markets. I show that when levered investors become too large relative to the market as a whole, the demand curve for securities can suddenly become upward-sloping as levered investors are exposed to forced liquidations. The size and leverage of all levered investors defines the minimum elasticity-adjusted market size for stability or MinEAMASS, which is the smallest elasticity-adjusted market size that can support the group of levered investors analyzed. This gives rise to a measure of instability that can predict when markets become vulnerable to a leverage-driven market liquidity crisis. Chapter Two iterates the model of Chapter One forward in time to generate an inflating bubble that suddenly bursts, reproducing many of Kindleberger's (1996) stylized facts about the dynamics of bubbles in a simple framework. Chapter Three applies my measure of instability in a historical investigation of the 1998 demise of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). I find that a forced liquidation of LTCM threatened to destabilize some financial markets, particularly for bank funding and equity volatility. Chapter Four discusses how the model applied to the stock market crash of 1929. There the evidence suggests that a tightening of margin requirements in the first nine months of 1929 combined with price declines in September and early October caused enough investors to become constrained that the market was tipped into instability, triggering the sudden crash of October and November.

The aim of this work is to analyze the changes in family behavior in Czech Republic especially using the framework of the second demographic transition. Attention was focused on the analysis of attitudes towards new form partnerships and childbearing and development reproductive behavior in Czech Republic. In this analysis using data of two surveys ISSP (1994, 2002, 2012) and EVS (1990, 1999, 2008). The trajectories of changes in Czech Republic were compared with trajectories of transformation in selected post-communist countries. Different trajectories of transformation have been identified for postcommunist countries. The results in many aspects suggested Czech Republic has been approaching the North-western European countries. However, important the Czech Republic seems to be much further in the process of the second demographic transition in comparison with many post- communist countries. Keywords family behavior, attitude, family, the second demographic transition, postcommunist countries

The thesis is focused on the current state of families in the Czech Republic and its individual regions. In addition to the basic characteristics of the family, this work captures the changes undergone by the family, especially in the areas of marriage and parenthood. The diploma thesis also analyzes the behavior of the Czech population through relevant statistical indicators, such as marriage, divorce, birth and fertility in the period of 1991-2008, both at the national level and at the district levels. Based on the analysed results of the statistical indicators, the author assesses whether there exist differences between individual regions of the Czech Republic, which relate to the family behavior of the population.