Demographic responses to environmental stress have long been hypothesized in classic population theory, though empirical analyses remain scarce and traditionally focus on aggregate units of analysis. With the growing concern over environmental degradation it remains an empirical question as to how, to what extent and in which spatial and temporal scales populations, especially in developing countries, are directly and indirectly affected by their immediate natural surroundings. This paper examines the link between fertility related behavior of women at the individual level and several environmental determinants across eight sub-Saharan West African countries. Data is pooled from georeferenced Demographic and Health Surveys (conducted 2001-2005) combined with long term climatic data and a time series of remotely sensed vegetation index spanning 23 years. Results consistently show little to no effect of immediate natural resources or gross land degradation on fertility related behavior, but that effects tend to become more pronounced in larger geographic scales. Despite data limitations these results call for improved theoretical specificity. Questions that need to be addressed, both theoretically and empirically, are at which spatial and temporal scales environmental pressures induce certain types of demographic responses. / text

In the last thirty years an increasing number of governments are taking an interest in the growth rate and age structure of their populations. The chief concern among advanced economies is that pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems for the elderly will be unsustainable as the ratio of younger workers to older beneficiaries shrinks from aging populations. Resistance to reforms such as reduced or delayed benefits, or higher taxes has focused attention on a third option, growing the working-age population. There is a growing consensus on the economic benefits of population growth, a reversal from the 1960s through 80s. Governments try to grow the population through incentives for more children and/or accepting more immigrants. This report compares the population policies of Singapore, the United States, France, and Japan to analyze governments' motives and policy outcomes. Middle-income nations like China and Brazil can learn from the experiences of developed nations to avoid the same predicament in the future. Each government's mix of fertility incentives, immigrants, and guest workers is a product of their economic and political circumstances. The surest way to grow the population, accepting immigrants, is usually the least popular. The most popular is the most unproven, providing benefits for larger families. There is no consensus what the most effective fertility incentives are. Population policy has never been just about the economy, it is steeped in political and cultural visions. Shedding that political baggage is a prerequisite to a more rational, sustainable policy approach to demography. / text

Economists have studied the relationship between population growth and economic growth for a very long time and not found any clear relationships. Recently they have begun to focus on the factors of population growth such as fertility and mortality rates. From this line of study came the age-structure hypothesis. The age-structure hypothesis was founded on the evidence from Asia’s very successful demographic transition and many economists are now wondering whether Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will be able to repeat this feat. Hence, this study aims to investigate the relationship between the dependency ratio (a ratio between the dependents (ages 0-14 and 65+) and the number of workers (aged 15-64) in a population (Eastwood and Lipton, 2012)) and economic growth in SSA and search for evidence of a demographic dividend. Not many previous studies have been done focusing completely on SSA and this study therefore aims to shed some light on the subject. The investigation was done by a cross-sectional regression analysis using a sample of 26 sub-Saharan countries and secondary data from mostly the World Bank. The results show a significant relationship between both versions of the dependency ratio and economic growth but do not show evidence of a demographic dividend. Out of the two versions of the age-structure hypothesis, most support was found for the strong version. Furthermore, support was found for the conditional convergence theory and both savings per capita and the initial level of education were found significant. However, the results had problems with severe multicollinearity and it was concluded that the results were not entirely reliable and should not be depended upon.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 308-334). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 1996. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 308-334). Also available on the Internet.

Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul / Amongst the different population regimes historically occurred, the modern demography transition period stands out. This population dynamic has been identified in Brazil since the 70 s decade, when several changes on the composition of the population and society happened. The works aims to analyze the demographic transition process in Brazil and its regional and social peculiarities, identifying socioeconomic opportunities and challenges. For that so, elements that originate this new population regime are investigated, moreover, a descriptive analysis about the demographic changes in Brazil was done, based on the IBGE projections. This way, it is identified that the Brazilian demographic bonus may end in 2022, showing a subsequent older population profile. In the Brazilian global process, it is verified the regional and social heterogeneity, coexisting both more advanced scenarios (south and southeast areas) and less ones (north and northeast areas) in the age transition. Also, it is verified that the economic growth seen since 1999 was directly connected with the increase on people of working age. However, it is not known until when it will be possible to count on this as an economic boost, once the increase of the number of people of working age is slowing down. Furthermore, a consideration is given to the need of improvement on the Brazilian productivity, a key element to sustain the growing of the elderly people. It may be considered that there are serious challenges to be overcome by the Brazilian economy, especially about the productive efficiency. On one side, the accumulation of physical capital faces macroeconomic and institutional obstacles and on the other side, the accumulation of human capital needs of educational provision of higher quality. / Dentre os diferentes regimes populacionais historicamente percorridos, destaca-se o ciclo moderno da Transição Demográfica. Essa dinâmica populacional é identificada no Brasil a partir da década de 1970, momento em que ocorre diversas alterações na composição da população e sociedade. O objetivo desta dissertação consiste em analisar o processo de Transição Demográfica no Brasil e suas peculiaridades regionais e sociais, identificando as oportunidades e os desafios sobre a economia e sociedade. Assim, investiga-se os elementos que dão origem a este novo regime populacional e seus dividendos econômicos, bem como, faz-se uma análise descritiva das mudanças demográficas do Brasil, com base nas projeções do IBGE. Dessa forma, identifica-se que o Bônus Demográfico brasileiro tende a findar em 2022, sinalizando para subsequente perfil populacional envelhecido. Dentre o processo global brasileiro, identifica-se a heterogeneidade regional e social, coexistindo perfis mais avançados (Regiões Sul e Sudeste) e atrasados (Regiões Norte e o Nordeste) na transição etária. Verificase, também, que a partir de 1999 o crescimento econômico foi efetivamente favorecido pelo incremento de pessoas em idade ativa. Contudo, não se sabe até que momento será possível usufruir do processo demográfico como combustível econômico, uma vez que a proporção de pessoas em idade ativa apresenta constante ritmo de desaceleração. Além disso, atenta-se para a necessidade de ascensão da produtividade brasileira, elemento-chave para sustentar parcela crescente de idosos com menor participação de adultos. Pode-se considerar que há sérios desafios a serem superados pela economia brasileira, principalmente no que tange à eficiência produtiva. Por um lado, a acumulação de capital físico enfrenta obstáculos de caráter macroeconômico e institucional e, por outro, a formação de capital humano clama por uma oferta educacional de mais qualidade.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo da interação do desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro ocorrido no século XX com a transição demográfica da mesma época. A mudança de comportamento da população brasileira nos mostra grande influência da economia, mas também que a evolução demográfica foi essencial para o desempenho econômico. O Brasil chegou ao final do século passado completamente diferente, tanto no âmbito econômico como demográfico, do país de 1900. Quando o centro da pirâmide etária brasileira alargou, o país pôde aproveitar uma indispensável variável para o desenvolvimento econômico, o capital humano. O Brasil termina o século XX com a maioria de sua população em idade ativa e vivendo um período de “Bônus Demográfico”, condição propícia ao desenvolvimento econômico. Resta agora aproveitar os resultados destas mudanças. / This paper presents a study of the interaction of Brazilian economic development occurred in the twentieth century with the demographic transition at the same era. The population’s behaviour change shows great influence of the economy, but also that the demographic evolution was essential to economic performance. Brazil has reached the end of the last century completely different, both in economic and demographic scope, from the population of 1900.When the centre of the Brazilian age pyramid widened, the country could enjoy a vital crucial variable for economic development, human capital. Brazil ends the century with most of its population at working age and living in a period of "demographic bonus", a condition conducive to economic development. It remains now to enjoy the results of these changes.

Este trabalho analisa as relações entre o processo de transição demográfica pelo qual o Brasil está passando e o crescimento econômico. Levando em consideração o que os demógrafos denominam de “janela de oportunidade demográfica”, o Brasil tem hoje uma potencialidade única para acelerar o crescimento econômico e conduzir o país para um desenvolvimento sustentado. O trabalho está dividido em três capítulos. Partindo da discussão filosófica entre o iluminista Marquês de Condorcet e o pastor anglicano Thomas Malthus, apresenta-se a teoria da transição demográfica e a relação entre transição demográfica e desenvolvimento econômico, com destaque para a transição das tendências de mortalidade e de fecundidade. O processo de transição demográfica que o Brasil está passando e as possibilidades de crescimento econômico advindas da demografia são apresentadas no segundo capitulo. No último, são discutidos dois pontos essenciais para o sucesso de qualquer política que vise crescimento econômico sustentável: o mercado de trabalho brasileiro e o sistema educacional do país. Apresenta-se, também, uma análise da desigualdade social no Brasil. Considerando-se que as oportunidades demográficas se apresentam tão somente por este lado, procura-se demonstrar a importância da inserção do componente populacional na agenda das políticas públicas como um fator que pode contribuir para a aceleração do crescimento econômico do Brasil. Caso contrário, o componente demográfico reduzirá sua eficiência e o país se afastará dos objetivos de um desenvolvimento econômico com redução das desigualdades sociais. / This work analyzes the relationship between the process of demographic transition, through which Brazil is going, and the economic growth. Taking into consideration what the demographers call “window of demographic opportunity”, Brazil has a unique potentiality to speed up the economic growth and lead the country to the sustainable development. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of the demographic transition and the relationship between the demographic transition and the economic development is based on the philosophic discussion between the illuminist Marquis de Condorcet and the Anglican minister Thomas Malthus, with emphasis on the transition of the mortality and fertility tendencies. The demographic transition process Brazil is going through and the possibilities of the economic growth arising from the demography are presented in the second chapter. The last chapter discusses two essential points for the success of any policy that aims at the sustainable economic growth: Brazilian labor market and educational system of the country. Furthermore, the social inequality is analyzed as well. Considering that the demographic opportunities are only presented from this viewpoint, the work tries to show the importance of introducing the populational component in the agenda of the public policies as a factor that may contribute to speeding up the economic growth in Brazil. Otherwise, the demographic component will reduce its efficiency and the country will stray from the objectives of economic development aimed at reducing the social inequalities.

Este trabalho analisa as relações entre o processo de transição demográfica pelo qual o Brasil está passando e o crescimento econômico. Levando em consideração o que os demógrafos denominam de “janela de oportunidade demográfica”, o Brasil tem hoje uma potencialidade única para acelerar o crescimento econômico e conduzir o país para um desenvolvimento sustentado. O trabalho está dividido em três capítulos. Partindo da discussão filosófica entre o iluminista Marquês de Condorcet e o pastor anglicano Thomas Malthus, apresenta-se a teoria da transição demográfica e a relação entre transição demográfica e desenvolvimento econômico, com destaque para a transição das tendências de mortalidade e de fecundidade. O processo de transição demográfica que o Brasil está passando e as possibilidades de crescimento econômico advindas da demografia são apresentadas no segundo capitulo. No último, são discutidos dois pontos essenciais para o sucesso de qualquer política que vise crescimento econômico sustentável: o mercado de trabalho brasileiro e o sistema educacional do país. Apresenta-se, também, uma análise da desigualdade social no Brasil. Considerando-se que as oportunidades demográficas se apresentam tão somente por este lado, procura-se demonstrar a importância da inserção do componente populacional na agenda das políticas públicas como um fator que pode contribuir para a aceleração do crescimento econômico do Brasil. Caso contrário, o componente demográfico reduzirá sua eficiência e o país se afastará dos objetivos de um desenvolvimento econômico com redução das desigualdades sociais. / This work analyzes the relationship between the process of demographic transition, through which Brazil is going, and the economic growth. Taking into consideration what the demographers call “window of demographic opportunity”, Brazil has a unique potentiality to speed up the economic growth and lead the country to the sustainable development. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of the demographic transition and the relationship between the demographic transition and the economic development is based on the philosophic discussion between the illuminist Marquis de Condorcet and the Anglican minister Thomas Malthus, with emphasis on the transition of the mortality and fertility tendencies. The demographic transition process Brazil is going through and the possibilities of the economic growth arising from the demography are presented in the second chapter. The last chapter discusses two essential points for the success of any policy that aims at the sustainable economic growth: Brazilian labor market and educational system of the country. Furthermore, the social inequality is analyzed as well. Considering that the demographic opportunities are only presented from this viewpoint, the work tries to show the importance of introducing the populational component in the agenda of the public policies as a factor that may contribute to speeding up the economic growth in Brazil. Otherwise, the demographic component will reduce its efficiency and the country will stray from the objectives of economic development aimed at reducing the social inequalities.

abstract: This dissertation explores changes in fertility and family formation in South Korea, a setting in which rapid demographic changes have taken place since the early twentieth century. Despite active debate and discussion among experts and policymakers, knowledge is still limited in regards to the country’s significant demographic changes. I take advantage of Korean census samples data from 1966 to 2010, which span birth cohorts from pre- and early-transitional stages to post-transitional stages, which comprise the entry stage of the second demographic transition. From a cohort perspective, I use diverse demographic methods to analyze three different aspects of fertility and family formation—fertility differentials, marriage delay, and fertility concentration. The findings illustrate how fertility and marriage patterns have changed over generations and range from a politically tumultuous period, which includes World War II, liberation, and the Korean War, to an advanced economic period. By and large, the three studies suggest that until 1960, fertility and family formation converged as per social norms and leadership guidelines. Then, marriage and childbearing behaviors began to diversify and variation by social groups increased for cohorts born during and after the 1960s. The phrase “convergence towards diversity” captures the reversal of demographic trends within the country. Taken together, this dissertation advances our understanding of how fertility and family formation have changed in South Korea, which has been on an intense demographic journey from pre-transitional fertility through very low fertility, and currently headed toward another destination. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sociology 2015