Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / One of the population structures associated with demographic dividend is “demographic transition”, which is a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. It is understood that low dependency ratio (shows that there are relatively more adults of working age who can support the young and the old of the populace) is one major factor in achieving a successful demographic dividend (DD) (Esther, 2013). DD refers to the fast-economic growth that is achieved by a country when there are dependency ratios. This definition means that the proportion of people of working age group (15-64) is higher, compared to those of ages lower than 15 and above 64 years (Statistics SA, 2017). / 2022

This cross-sectional study focuses on attitudes in accordance with the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in the adult population of Israel. Such attitudes are expressed by favoring an establishment of a family at older ages and favoring a small family size. Such attitudes are also expressed by supporting certain forms of living arrangements that are alternative to marriage. Based on results from Israel’s Social Survey (ISS), it seems that during 2009-2019, there was a nationwide rise in support of attitudes in accordance with the SDT. This trend is well apparent, despite a moderate decline in support of divorce as the best solution in insolvable relationships. In addition, it was found that the level of religiosity had a substantial and negative effect on the probability of supporting attitudes in accordance with the SDT. Furthermore, the type of residence (i.e., living in an urban environment) had no substantial effect on the probability of supporting these attitudes. Additionally, although differences in support of these attitudes were found between residents of Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv, they were less consistent and substantial after the effects of religious affiliation and religiosity were considered. However, residing in Tel-Aviv had substantial and positive effects on the probability of accepting unmarried couples’ parenthood and on the probability of preferring establishing a family for women aged 30 and above. This study also points out that certain attitudes are more supported by Jews, while others are more supported by Muslims.

This thesis builds on previous United Nations’ research investigating factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in six (6) states: Burkina Faso, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, the Philippines, and Uganda. The present research, however, provides a broader assessment of the TFR and the potential causes of its decline by examining countries across nine (9) regions of the world – sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, the Caribbean, the Pacific Islands, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, and the former Soviet Socialist Republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The present analyses are also conducted over time, specifically from 1960 through 2002. Five (5) primary hypotheses regarding factors affecting the Total Fertility Rate are examined using feasible generalized least squares regression analysis. First, foreign debt is hypothesized to have a positive relationship to TFR. That is, holding all else constant, as foreign debt increases, TFR is expected to increase as well. Foreign debt is operationalized first, as total external debt; second, as long-term debt, and third, as total debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services. Second, foreign aid, the level of socioeconomic development, and the extent of females’ education are all hypothesized to have negative relationships to TFR. That is, all else constant, as foreign aid increases, TFR is expected to decrease. All else constant, as the level of socioeconomic development increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. All else constant, as the extent of females’ education increases, TFR is also expected to decrease. Foreign aid is operationalized as first, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loans and International Development Agency (IDA) credits; and second, as official development assistance and official aid. The level of socioeconomic development is operationalized as the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. The extent of females’ education is operationalized as first, the adult female literacy rate (ages 15 and above), and second, as the ratio of young literate females to males (ages 15 – 24). Finally, whereas previous scholars have hypothesized that industrialization reduces TFR (the Western European “demographic transition” hypothesis), the present research proposes that this relationship may not hold in developing countries. This possibility is investigated by analyzing the relationships between TFR and first, the value added of agriculture (as a percentage of GDP); second, the value added of industry (also as a percentage of GDP); third, the value added of manufacturing as a percentage of GDP; and fourth, the value added of services as a percentage of GDP. The findings presented here suggest first, that the foreign debt and foreign aid have differing effects on TFR in different regions of the world. Second, the effects of socioeconomic development and females’ education are more consistent (than foreign debt and foreign aid) across the different regions – but intriguing variations still exist. Finally, it appears that, with very few exceptions, the Western European-based demographic transition model does not hold for non-Western and developing areas. Therefore, new, region-specific models of TFR need to be developed – and public policy needs to be based on these more accurate, more context-appropriate models.

China is growing old before it is growing affluent. This situation is not unique to China; at least three other countries are in the same situation. While some of these had family planning campaigns, none had a one-child policy which implies that one-child policy is not the direct cause of this predicament. While China’s working-age share of the population has peaked, any shortages of low-skill labor currently observed in China are primarily caused by the hukou system and its barriers to labor mobility. A reform of the hukou system would secure ample supplies of migrant labor even in the face of mildly declining working-age share of the population. The absence of reforms could mean the arrival of a policy-induced Lewis Turning Point, prompting a premature and potentially counterproductive reorientation of industry. China does not yet possess an advantage in capital and technology intensive production and thus risks falling into the middle-income trap if the reorientation of industry takes place too early. If the Lewis Point can be postponed and the current rate of capital stock growth can be maintained for another decade or two, China might be able to avoid the middle-income trap. Both China’s and Japan’s current pension systems are unsustainable and their PAYGO nature is detrimental to long-run economic growth, especially so for aging societies. It is possible for China to make the system sustainable in the long if reforms are implemented while the transition costs are manageable. Although China is aging, the pace will be relatively slow until 2030. It will still take many years before the country is as old as Japan is a present. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also offers China more flexibility than Japan currently enjoys. / published_or_final_version / China Development Studies / Master / Master of Arts in China Development Studies

by Ho Sau Lan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 82-85). / ABSTRACT / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / CONTENTS / LIST OF TABLES / CHAPTERS / Chapter 1. --- DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN AND POPULATION POLICIES / Chapter 1.1 --- Introduction / Chapter 1.2 --- Current literature on China's demography / Chapter 1.3 --- Recent demographic trend in China / Chapter 1.4 --- Policies for controlling birth / Chapter 2. --- EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION / Chapter 2.1 --- Explanations of the demographic transition / Chapter 2.2 --- Granger-causality / Chapter 2.3 --- Test specification / Chapter 2.4 --- Data specification / Chapter 2.5 --- Test procedure / Chapter 2.6 --- Empirical results / Chapter 2.7 --- Summary / Chapter 2.8 --- Problem of the tests / Chapter 3. --- FERTILITY CHANGE IN THE REFORM PERIOD1979-1987 / Chapter 3.1 --- The economic reform / Chapter 3.2 --- Effects of the economic reform and other economic factors on fertility / Chapter 3.3 --- Data specification / Chapter 3.4 --- Statistical specification / Chapter 3.5 --- Empirical Results / Chapter 3.6 --- Summary / Chapter 4. --- CONCLUDTNG REMARKS / Chapter 5. --- APPENDIX A： GLOSSARY OF SOME DEMOGRAPHIC TERMS / Chapter 6. --- APPENDIX B： SOURCES OF DATA / Chapter 7. --- BIBLIOGRAPHY

by Eric M. Power. / Thesis (M.A.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2008. / Bibliography: leaves 99-112.

Although institutional care has started to be outmoded in the developed countries with development of different models of care, it still has a considerable place in the developing countries such as Turkey. This is because, changes in the demographic structure, extended family, and urban development of Turkey has brought about several aging problems leading older adults to end up in institutions. Loneliness was one of the significant reasons given in the Social Inquiry Survey of Applicants of Darulaceze Old-Age Institution and the basis for a micro level analysis in this study. Therefore, the main objective of the study was to determine the predictors of loneliness, including age, the state of living alone, functional independence, education, and gender. Analysis of the results indicated that these predictors have significant effects on the loneliness predominantly defined by social factors rather than medical factors. In addition, the meso and macro level analyses were employed to control the micro level analysis and see a general picture of institutional care. Thus, an academic example of diagnosing the main reasons behind the institutional care was presented to understand the context of aging in Turkey.

Cette thèse étudie le processus du changement démographique pendant la transition des chasseurs-collecteurs aux agriculteurs sur le plateau de Lœss, qui est la région de l’origine du millet cultivé, et dans la plaine du fleuve Yangszé, qui est la région de l’origine du riz cultivé en Chine. Ce travail de recherche doctoral collecte et analyse les données paléoanthropologiques des nécropoles des deux régions en Chine, et un signal similaire est détecté. Les données archéologiques, comme la densité des sites et la densité des dates au radiocarbone, sont aussi collectées et analysées, pour vérifier ce signal démographique en Chine. Suit à notre étude, nous représentons le contexte environnemental du signal de la TDA, incluant le changement climatique et la variation du paysage. L’amélioration de l’environnement naturel pendant la transition démographique est évidente, mais elle n’est pas une cause décisive de la TDA. Ensuite, nous représentons le changement de la stratégie de subsistance de la population du Paléolithique supérieur au Néolithique dans les deux régions, et son lien de causalité réciproque avec la transition démographique. Les données archéologiques montrent que la transition démographique et le changement de la stratégie de subsistance sont suivis de façon évidente par une modification de l’habitation, et l’arrangement des villages s'est modifié graduellement aussi au fil du temps. Celles-là indiquent probablement que l’augmentation de la taille de population est une cause importante de l’évolution sociale. / In this thesis, we study the process of the demographic change during the transition from the hunters-gatherers to the farmers on the Loess Plateau, which is the region of the origin of the cultivated millet, and in the Yangtze Plain, which is the region of the origin of the cultivated rice, in China. By collecting and analyzing the paleoanthropological data from the cemeteries of prehistorical hunters-gatherers and farmers of these two regions in China, we detect a similar signal of the ADT. This signal is also confirmed by the archaeological data, such as the density of the archaeological sites and the density of the radiocarbon dates. We represent the environmental context of the signal demographic in the following study, including the climatic change and the variation of le landscape. The improvement of the natural environment during the demographic transition is obvious, but it seems that this improvement is not a factor decisive of the ADT. Then we represent the change of subsistence strategy of the population from upper Paleolithic to Neolithic in the two regions, and its relationship of reciprocal causation with the demographic transition. The archaeological data indicate that the demographic transition and the change of the subsistence strategy were evidently followed by the modification of the habitation, and the arrangement of the villages have also varied overtime. These information probably suggest that the augmentation of the size of population is one of the main causes of the social evolution.

Demographic transition implies severe challenges for high income nations, for instance Japan, as the population decreases due to declines in birth rates as well as the higher rate of elderly population. More women are entering the labor market which affects birth rates. In addition, technological progress has improved health care and standard of living, bringing up life expectancies. However, the elderly population is increasing, elevating the dependency ratio which dampens the economic growth. The changed age structure alters the ratio of labor force negatively relative to population, in spite of the higher female labor participation. This paper analyzes how the current demographic transition in advanced countries influences economic growth. The paper is focused on Japan that is currently dealing with the consequences from the fastest increase in the percentage share of the elderly population compared to the other high income countries. The empirical analysis is based on a growth accounting model that estimates the impact of demographic factors on growth rates in high income countries. The empirical results indicate that demographic factors such as life expectancy and total dependency ratio have a negative impact on economic growth. The conclusion is that Japan and other rich countries have to make greater efforts in dampening the demographic change by policy making and in-migration.

Fertility levels are investigated in the thesis because significant changes have occurred recently in the fertility levels in Turkey. It is necessary to understand the factors related to fertility level declines to determine how people behave with regard to their fertility in Turkey. It is only after understanding people&rsquo / s behavior then it is possible to develop appropriate social and governmental policies. It is possible to evaluate the fertility level declines from different points of view. There are two opposite approaches when evaluating fertility level declines. One of the approaches explaining fertility level declines is the demographic transition theory which uses &ldquo / modernization&rdquo / as the cause of fertility level declines. The &ldquo / other&rdquo / approach is the opposite approach to the modernization theory. Both of these approaches are acceptable approaches from different views. However / this thesis is not written to prove either one of these approaches. The demographic transition or the modernization perspective is used as a tool to determine the variables which cause fertility levels to decline in Turkey. The aim is to provide an understanding of the determinants of fertility levels in Turkey by constituting an econometric model of fertility across the provinces of Turkey by using the panel data estimation. Data for the variables can be found in years from 1980 to 2000. One of the purposes of this thesis in investigating the fertility level declines is to identify which changes occurred in Turkey related to fertility levels between the years 1980-1985, 1985-1990 and 1990-2000. It is found that urbanization gained importance in effecting fertility level declines in the 1985-1990 period as compared to the 1980-1985 period. The other purpose of this thesis is to investigate how different are the fertility levels in the Provinces Prioritized in Development from the &ldquo / other&rdquo / provinces. Although contraception usage is important in effecting fertility levels in the &ldquo / other&rdquo / provinces, this factor is not important in effecting fertility levels in the Provinces Prioritized in Development.