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Patterns of error perceptual and cognitive bias in intelligence analysis and decision-makingJones, Lloyd (Chad). 12 1900 (has links)
The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.
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Constituency constraints on violence Al-Qaeda and WMDBrowne, William W. 12 1900 (has links)
The changing nature of terrorist attacks in the previous decade has cast doubt on the commonly accepted constraints on terrorist violence. Claims that these constraints are eroding has led to an unstudied assumption that modern terrorist groups, and al-Qaeda in particular, are not subject to constituency constraints. Most alarming is the possibility that al-Qaeda, allegedly unconcerned with alienating supporters, will attack the United States with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Yet no detailed study of al-Qaeda's constituency constraints has been undertaken, even though they devote considerable effort to win popular support among Muslims. This thesis reveals that al-Qaeda seeks the support of a constituency as the central pillar of their strategy. This constituency, contrary to Western portrayals, largely does not support indiscriminate killing and would not support a WMD attack. Al-Qaeda is aware of this sentiment, and as a pragmatic group is willing to alter their methods to gain supporters. Consequently, al-Qaeda is not likely to conduct such an attack for fear of alienating this constituency.
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Compelled compliance WMD elimination in the new era of arms controlHall, Johnny 09 1900 (has links)
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to compel compliance with UN disarmament mandates. The invasion exposed the lack of a standing organization to conduct WMD elimination as a serious capability gap in the U.S. military force structure. This thesis demonstrates why it is necessary to establish such a capability. It argues that the United States cannot rely solely on multilateral, cooperative approaches to eliminate a determined adversaryâ s weapons program. While non-coercive tactics are preferred, the mixed results of twelve-years of UN verification in Iraq show that a viable threat of force must accompany these approaches in order to induce compliance with UN Security Council disarmament mandates. Additionally, the U.S. elimination effort in Iraq demonstrated that ad hoc approaches inadequately address this capability shortfall. The lack of integrated training, unsecured sites because of inadequate prioritization, and misaligned intelligence assets are just some of the problems that occurred during the ad hoc OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM elimination operation. When cooperative, nonproliferation measures fail to rollback aggressor statesâ WMD programs, DoD must have the capability to compel compliance if called upon. This thesis makes recommendations to facilitate the development of a viable and sustainable WMD elimination capability. / Outstanding Thesis
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Woman, the Root of Man's Self-Destruction in four Shakespearean PlaysBrown, Barbara Love 01 1900 (has links)
This thesis examines four plays by Shakespeare to illustrate the theme of men's downfall as caused by the women they love. One play from each type of relationship was chosen: Coriolanus for mothers who exert disastrous influence on their sons; King Lear for daughters responsible for their fathers' downfall; Cymbeline for the injurious effect of a wife on her husband, and is significant because the moral dissolution comes through her great virtue rather than through her character faults; and Troilus and Cressida for lovers who are not bound either by blood or legal ties.
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Electrodisinfection of Municipal Wastewater EffluentPeterson, Mark 10 August 2005 (has links)
To avoid the spread of disease from sewage treatment effluents, pathogenic microorganisms present must be destroyed by one or a combination of disinfection methods. Chlorine remains the predominant disinfectant used although it consumes considerable amounts of energy and has associated exposure risks from production, transportation and storage of this poisonous gas. In addition to bacteria and other objectionable microorganisms, color, suspended and colloidal solids also require removal from water for reuse. Aluminum and iron additions have been used to coagulate and remove non-settleable solids. By electrically dissolving aluminum to form solids-bridging aluminum hydroxide, the water itself can also be disinfected by the effects of electrical fields and its reactions to form disinfectant chemicals and direct destruction of microorganisms in the water. This research investigated the effects of electrical current, time, and chloride concentration on the electrochemical disinfection of sewage treatment plant effluent using aluminum electrodes to substitute for chlorine disinfection.
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Ridesourcing and the Taxi MarketplaceMcBride, Sean January 2015 (has links)
Thesis advisor: Joseph Quinn / The creation of ridesourcing firms Uber and Lyft greatly disrupted the taxicab marketplace in the United States over the past four years. By examining the taxicab marketplace, as well as the ridesourcing firm’s aspects of creative destruction, the marketplace’s drastic changes become apparent. Thus, 21st century technology disrupts the marketplace, and creates a real time market based on supply and demand factors. Furthermore, disruption impacts all actors within the previous taxicab marketplace as well as the newly created ridesourcing marketplace; therefore, ridesourcing’s widespread effects are examined in detail. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2015. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.
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Nuclear Terrorism calibrating funding for defensive programs in response to the threat /Haglund, Sean W. January 2009 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Moltz, James Clay. Second Reader: Davis, Zachary. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 26, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Nuclear, terrorism, domestic, risk, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, Cooperative Threat Reduction(CTR), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DoD), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of State (DOS), Russia, Highly-Enriched Uranium, Plutonium. Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-105). Also available in print.
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On public opinion in time of warAnthony, Brian S. January 2009 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (M.S. in Information Warfare Systems Engineering)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Arquilla, John. Second Reader: Iatrou, Steve. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 27, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Weapons of mass distruction, NES National Election Studies, public opinion, Vietnam war, Iraq war, President Johnson, Presisent Bush. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-94). Also available in print.
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NATO's Weapons of Mass Destruction Initiative : achievements and challenges /Bravo, Iliana P. January 2003 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2003. / Thesis advisor(s): David S. Yost, James Wirtz. Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.
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Neoliberalism, Creative Destruction and the Economic Reconstruction of Iraq, 2003-2010Flannes, Matthew William January 2011 (has links)
The Marshall Plan and post-2003 Iraq represent the two largest US-led, post-war reconstruction projects in history, yet the two cases embody the implementation of two nearly opposite political ideologies. Whereas proponents of the Marshall Plan emphasized the supremacy of the state in reconstruction, Bush administration officials felt that neoliberal market reforms, aided by the opportunistic nature of Schumpetarian creative destruction, were the only legitimate steps required in post-war Iraq. Such discrepancies were largely due to the changing role of the US in the international arena; by the end of the Cold War, Washington was able to take a unilateral approach abroad and more actively push for political and free market reforms. Yet the sectarian chaos that quickly engulfed Iraq and the economic rise of China have all but delegitimized neoliberalism and effectively reopened the issue of the role of the marketplace versus the state in the 21st century.
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