No description available.

Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration in equity markets has become more prevalent. The bulk of research into cointegration focuses on developed and Asian markets, with little research been done on African markets. This study compares the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests for cointegration and uses them to calculate the level of cointegration between South African and other global equity markets. Each market is compared pair-wise with South Africa and the results have been that in general South Africa is cointegrated with other emerging markets but not really with African nor developed markets. Short-run analysis with the error correction was carried out and showed that in general markets respond slowly to any disequilibrium. Innovation accounting methods showed that the country placed first in Cholesky ordering dominates the other one. Multivariate cointegration was carried out using three selections of 4, 6 and 8 market portfolios. One of the markets was SA and the others were all chosen based on the criteria that they are not pair-wise cointegrated with SA. The level of cointegration varied depending on the portfolios, as did the error correction rates, impulse responses and variance decomposition. The one constant was that the USA dominated any portfolio where it was introduced. Recommendations were finally made about which market portfolio an investor should consider as most favourable.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-03-27T02:33:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato VERSAO FINALEE.pdf: 1789212 bytes, checksum: df07f640df56386834f32376867cac67 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcus, boa noite! Por gentileza, retirar a numeração da página do "Sumário", pois só pode aparecer da "Introdução" em diante. É só alterar e submeter novamente. Qualquer dúvida, entre em contato. Atenciosamente, Thais Oliveira. on 2018-03-27T22:29:11Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-04-02T20:14:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato VERSAO FINALEE.pdf: 1789212 bytes, checksum: df07f640df56386834f32376867cac67 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Boa noite, Marcus! Para que possamos aprovar, há somente um detalhe que deve ser corrigido. A página do "Sumário" está numerada, e a numeração deve aparecer somente a partir da Introdução. Por gentileza, alterar e submeter novamente. No aguardo, obrigada. on 2018-04-04T23:49:40Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-04-09T19:57:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-04-09T19:59:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-04-10T12:40:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-10T12:40:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-15 / Este trabalho tem o intuito de avaliar o poder de estabilização das políticas fiscal e monetária, de um conjunto de países desenvolvidos e emergentes, a partir da utilização do resultado primário e do hiato de juros como proxies das políticas fiscal e monetária para estabilizar o hiato do produto. Testes foram realizados no sentido de identificar uma postura anticíclica ou procíclica das políticas fiscal e monetária do conjunto de países, eventual proeminência da estabilização de uma política em relação à outra, bem como comparar o poder de estabilização entre os dois grupos de países. Na medida em que variáveis institucionais, como o grau de transparência do Banco Central e o grau de transparência fiscal, são capazes de influenciar variáveis macroeconômicas, foi também avaliado se a transparência do Banco Central e a transparência fiscal influenciariam negativamente a volatilidade do hiato do produto e da inflação, contribuindo, consequentemente, com a estabilização monetária e fiscal. / This paper has the purpose of gauging fiscal and monetary stabilization policies of a specific set of developed and developing countries using the overall budget balance and the real interest rate gap as proxies of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the output gap. Tests were carried out to identify a prevailing stabilization or procyclical policy stance of the relevant set of countries, a potential prominence of one stabilization policy over the other, and also to compare the output stabilization effect between developed and developing countries. Since institutional factors, such as Central Bank transparency and fiscal transparency levels, can influence macroeconomic variables, it was also assessed if the Central Bank transparency and the fiscal transparency would have a negative impact on the output gap and inflation volatilities contributing, as a result, to the overall monetary and fiscal stabilization.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

Contribuições recentes em teoria econômica têm sugerido que os efeitos do gasto do governo sobre o consumo privado dependem da interação entre agentes otimizadores e não-otimizadores, dada a restrição de liquidez dos últimos. Este trabalho analisa empiricamente tal hipótese estimando modelos de correção de erros em painel uniequacionais (P-ECM) e multiequacionais (P-VECM) para um painel com 48 países, assumindo uma estrutura de dependência de corte transversal e utilizando alguns dos mais recentes procedimentos de cointegração em painel. Sob a hipótese de que em países em desenvolvimento existe uma maior fração de agentes não-otimizadores (restritos ao crédito), analisa-se a existência de efeitos distintos entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados indicam que o gasto do governo crowds in o consumo privado agregado no longo prazo, sugerindo que o gasto do governo e o consumo privado podem ser descritos como bens complementares, e que os efeitos são duas vezes maiores nos países em desenvolvimento relativamente aos desenvolvidos, dando suporte às hipóteses testadas. / Recent contributions in economic theory have proposed that the observed effects of government spending on private consumption depend on the interaction between optimizing and non-optimizing agents, i.e., those who are liquidity constrained. This dissertation empirically analyzes this hypothesis by estimating panel error-correction models both uniequational (P-ECM) and multiequational (P-VECM) in a panel of 48 countries, assuming cross-sectional dependence structure and applying some of most recently developed methodologies on panel cointegration. Under the hypothesis that developing countries have a higher fraction of non-optimizing agents (with credit constraints), the dissertation analizes the existence of different effects on developed and developing countries. The results show that government spending crowds in private consumption in the long run, suggesting that government spending and private consumption can be described as complementary goods, and that the effects are two times as larger in developing countries as in developed ones, supporting the tested hypothesis.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / Over the years, the world economy has experienced growth in foreign direct investments (FDI), with the role of developing countries becoming more evident as both recipients and investors alike. The proliferation of international investment has also led to more bilateral investment treaties (BITs) with their complex and often duplicated rules. The increase in BITs of this complex nature has thus resuscitated a less publicly debated course, although recently discussed within the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD), is there need for multilateral agreement on investment (MAI), hosted within the multilateral institution(s)? Since the late 1990s, the discussion as to whether international investments require the MAI has been characterised by diverging interests of developed and developing countries, with neither willing to concede. Even in the immediate post-War II period, this standoff between developed and developing countries has dominated a discourse on whether there is a need for an international agreement on international investment. Yet developing countries, or African countries classified as least developing, continue to be left out of MAI discussions. For example, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 1990's proposed plurilateral agreement excluded African countries.

Magister Legum - LLM / At the heart of this study is the topic of small economies in the Multilateral Trade System (MTS). The study examines the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) legal framework and policy objectives in order to develop a comprehensive definition of small economies as a group of WTO members with specific needs. Particular attention is given to the determination of the specific characteristics of small economies, as well as the issues and constraints they are facing in the MTS. The study explores solutions proposed in order to tackle the constraints to the effective integration of small economies in the MTS, with specific reference to the policy reasoning of small economies. More importantly, the study explores the impact of the size factor, which is certainly not only a burden on the growth and development perspectives of the considered entity, but which may also become an advantage and promotes the trade performance of a small economy. Hypotheses are then made relating to the relevance of the economic and political environments in the determination of a successful (or not) integration, and participation, of a small economy in the MTS. A crucial argument developed is that the differences observed between countries sharing similar characteristics of smallness, vulnerability and remoteness/landlockedness, illustrates the fact that what ultimately matters is the interplay of factors related to the economic and political environments, the effect of which is to promote or constrain (depending on the case) successful integration of the small economy in the MTS. / South Africa

Magister Legum - LLM / The research paper seeks to investigate the possible ways in which African countries can maximise their benefit from the existing special and differential treatment clauses for trade in agriculture, and, then, make recommendations as to what should be the potential bargaining position of African countries with regard to future trade negotiations on agricultural trade. / South Africa