Three common methods have been used to assess the existence of rating bias in performance ratings: the total association approach, the differential constructs approach and the direct effects approach. One purpose of this study was to examine how the direct effects approach, and more specifically differential prediction analysis, is more useful than the other two approaches in examining the existence of rating bias. However, the usefulness of differential prediction depends on modeling the full rater race X ratee race interaction. Therefore, the second purpose of this study was to examine the conditions where differential prediction has sufficient power to detect this interaction. This was accomplished using monte carlo simulations. Total sample size, magnitude of rating bias, validity of predictor scores, rater race proportion and ratee race proportion were manipulated to identify which conditions of these parameters provided acceptable power to detect the rater race X ratee race interaction; in the conditions where power levels are acceptable, differential prediction is a useful tool in examining the existence of rating bias. The simulation results suggest that total sample size, magnitude of rating bias and rater race proportion have the most impact on power levels. Furthermore, these three parameters interact to effect power. Implications of these results are discussed. / Master of Science

Differential predictive validity in assessing academic performance in institutions of higher education has been assessed for a number of years. Historically, this body of research focused on gender and ethnicity. This study extends that research to geographic region (e.g., rural and non-rural populations). Specifically, this study predicted relationships between preadmission variables of incoming grade point average (GPA) and medical college admissions test (MCAT) and output variables of medical school GPA and comprehensive osteopathic medical licensing exam (COMLEX). Results indicate incoming GPA and MCAT are good variables to use to predict academic performance in medical school and score on the licensing board exam. Further, rural populations presented similar scores on preadmission variables and, thus, are not at a disadvantage in the admission process. A second goal of this study was to explore differential prediction of medical school GPA and COMLEX Level 1 score for the MCAT for rural and non-rural populations. Results provide some evidence of differential prediction of COMLEX score for the physical and biological sciences MCAT sub-tests such that rural populations' performance on the COMLEX Level 1 exam was underpredicted. Hence, when rural and non-rural populations present the same physical sciences and biological sciences MCAT sub-test score, the rural sub-group is predicted to obtain a lower COMLEX score and non-rural sub-group is predicted to obtain a higher COMLEX score. Further, when the two sub-groups present different MCAT scores for the physical and biological sciences sub-test, they are likely to obtain similar scores on the COMLEX. Implications and recommendations for future research are discussed. / Master of Science

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of DIBELS Nonsense Word Fluency Scores in the fall of first grade as a predictor of SAT-10 results. A comparison of boys and girls, three ethnic groups (Caucasian, Hispanic, African-American), and three different reading risk groups were examined using multiple regression analyses. Analysis of data from a total of 27,000 participants from a cohort of Reading First schools in 2003/2004 confirmed Nonsense Word Fluency scores in the fall of first grade to be a significant predictor of the SAT-10 reading scores in the spring. Differences found between and within groups were determined very small when Cohen's effect size was calculated. These results support for the use of Nonsense Word Fluency as a valid and useful early literacy assessment tool for determining which children likely need early additional reading instructional support in order to be successful readers.

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