Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago, Dept. of Political Science, August 2001. / Includes bibliographical references. Also available on the Internet.

Proposal submitted in partial fulfilment for the award of MTech in Environmental Management / It is widely believed that experts often have a more rational approach towards risks. This is because they are known to use algorithms, formal logic, risk assessments and normative rules to make decisions about risks. The central tenet of this research is that communication based on an understanding of how people conceptualise and evaluate risk communication efforts is critical for translating risk management knowledge into effective risk practices necessary for value generation in flood risk mitigation. Rational decisionEmaking requires both analytic and intuitive systems to operate on a parallel level. Therefore, this research proposes a Flood Risk Communication Model that takes cognisance of lay perceptions. The model emphasises on how risk communication efforts are evaluated by the lay using a combination of descriptive psychological and social construction theories. In particular, the prospect theory, heuristics and biases, cultural theory and trust theory are used to provide explanatory sketches on how flood risk communication efforts are perceived in highly vulnerable environmental contexts such as informal settlements. The challenge in this research however, lies in verifying the model empirically. The associative group analysis technique will be used to generate empirical data from a case study population. Two basic analytic methods will be employed to measure psychological dispositions of respondents. Firstly, word associations are scored and weighted based on frequency of occurrence to generate a dominance score. The higher the dominance score, the greater the interpretation and the more meaningful the theme is for that particular group. Secondly, the different theories of the model are factored into a questionnaire to measure priorities. All the responses are then compared to the proposed model and also used to evaluate actual lay perceptions and feelings towards the current risk communication interventions. The results showed a high level of consistency with the FRCM and hence with the descriptive psychological models of Kahneman and Tversky. However, we conclude that what is has been proposed to be biases are intuitive tendencies to adapt and make sustainable decisions in the face of applicable contextual influences. Thus, these contextual hierarchies determine the reference point and status quo of the recipient in decision making. Therefore, these influences and hierarchies need to be factored in the designing of a risk communication.

This dissertation examines the extent to which social vulnerability, as studied by researchers across multiple disciplines, has influenced the practice of emergency management at the local level. This study addresses two major research questions to accomplish this goal. First, how do local emergency managers perceive and define social vulnerability? Second, what strategies do local emergency managers employ to reach and meet the needs of socially vulnerable populations? Semi-structured interviews were conducted in person or by phone with a sample of local emergency managers, city managers, and American Red Cross personnel from the Houston - Galveston and the South East Texas regions as defined by the respective Councils of Government. A modified grounded theory approach was used with a constant comparative method to identify themes for each research question. Triangulation was accomplished through secondary census data and supplemental interviews. The interview data reveal that social vulnerability research has had an indirect influence on the practice of emergency management at the local level. This influence is facilitated through state and federal policy, training, and plans development. Based on the interview data, four themes were identified that capture the various ways in which local emergency management officials perceive and define social vulnerability. These include vulnerability as poverty and culture, vulnerability as a lack of security, vulnerability as a moral imperative, and vulnerability as a lack of awareness and knowledge. In terms of strategies employed to address social vulnerability, the data suggest four themes: leaving it to the professionals, bringing in volunteers, leveraging protocols to build buy-in, and fostering flexibility. The findings reveal the importance in closing the knowledge gap between research and practice, because increased damage, harm, and death can occur when the social inequalities of everyday life are not addressed in the planning process by emergency managers. The findings also reveal that state and federal policy, training, and plans development are the most trusted sources by emergency managers to transfer knowledge to practice. Additionally, with the proliferation of emergency management degree programs at the undergraduate and graduate levels, higher education can potentially play a more active and visible role in bridging the gap between research and practice, particularly as it relates to social vulnerability.

Ph.D., Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011 / In this study, the linkages between sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction and governance are explored, with reference to climate change adaptation. The purpose of the assessment is to ascertain the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of these inter-linkages with regard to climate change adaptation in South Africa. First, a brief review of theoretical debates on sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction, governance and climate change adaptation is given. Currently, it seems, sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction and governance are viewed exclusively from each other and from climate change adaptation. Some theoretical debates suggest that successful, long-term climate change adaptation can only be accomplished if linkages between these concepts, and practices, where relevant, are recognized in development policies. There is thus, a need to understand the relationships between climate change adaptation and development policy AND their linkages and tradeoffs. Coupled to this understanding, there is also a need to assess the role of institutions as well as institutional barriers that may retard or pose a threat to long-term sustainable adaptation. For this case study, the focus is on the 2004/05 drought that occurred in the Eastern Cape. The drought of 2004/05 was particularly severe. Some parts of the Eastern Cape were declared disaster areas. This declaration prompted responses from the various spheres of government, e.g. national, provincial and local. The intention therefore is, firstly, to gain clarity on the linkages between development/sustainable development policies, disaster-risk reduction and governance in the Province that operated during this period and in the periods following this drought. Secondly, the intention is to understand how the spheres of governance work together in responding to climate-related disasters. Responses from the community reveal that coupled to poor development planning; there is also limited and poor institutional capacity to respond to the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability and change. This poor institutional capacity is further complicated by a lack of coordination between the three spheres of government, i.e. national, provincial and local, as well as across national government departments. It is suggested that first, a good structure of cooperative governance and disaster-risk reduction is needed in South Africa. This structure should allow for multi-faceted and holistic development planning that focuses on saving lives, protecting livelihoods and assets. A good structure of governance should provide an environment that is sustainable and conducive to long-term climate change adaptation. What this case study also reveals is that monetary relief and assistance alone is not an effective response to climate variability and change. What is thus also needed is more vigilant monitoring of development projects and relief-funds as well as coordinated governance of development activities between national, provincial and local governments. Such an organized structure of governance could aid the country in gearing up for climate change adaptation.

Northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States are understudied from the perspective of hurricane vulnerability. In an attempt to fill this gap in research, this dissertation attempted to assess the hurricane vulnerability of the northeastern and mid- Atlantic United States through the construction of a Composite Hurricane Vulnerability Index (CHVI) for 184 counties extending from Maine to Virginia. The CHVI was computed by incorporating indicators of human vulnerability and physical exposure. Human vulnerability was derived from demographic, social and economic characteristics whereas physical exposure was based on attributes of the natural and built up environments. The spatial distribution of the CHVI and its component indices were examined and analyzed to meet the research goals, which were a) to develop indices of human vulnerability, physical exposure and composite hurricane vulnerability for all counties; b) to assess vulnerability distribution in terms of population size, metropolitan status (metropolitan versus non metropolitan counties) and location (coastal versus inland counties); c) to identify the specific underlying causes of vulnerability; d) to identify the significant clusters and outliers of high vulnerability; and e) to examine overlaps between high human vulnerability and high physical exposure in the region. Results indicated high overall vulnerability for counties that were metropolitan and / or coastal. Vulnerability clusters and intersections pointed towards high vulnerability in the major cities along the northeastern megalopolis, in the Hampton Roads section of Virginia and in parts of Delmarva Peninsula. Evidence of relationship of population size, metropolitan status and location with vulnerability levels provides a new perspective to vulnerability assessment. / by Shivangi Prasad. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2013. / Includes bibliography. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / System requirements: Adobe Reader.

Two of the main challenges facing communities and governments in developing countries are the reduction of risks of hydro-meteorological hazards and adaptation to climate change. As climate variability and change impacts are becoming more visible in the form of disasters, and are negatively affecting climate sensitive livelihoods and eroding communities' ability to fully recover, leading to increased vulnerability to subsequent climate risks. The unpredictability of current weather systems, therefore, makes it very difficult for poor governments and households to deal with adverse impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the fragmented approach to DRR and CCA with regards to practice, policy and organisational frameworks for dealing with climate risks is resulting in coordination challenges for the government departments. This study aimed to explore how local households and communities perceive and are experiencing and coping with climate change and drought, and what that means for integrating hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The study was carried out in Chirumhanzu district and the methods used for data collection included: 217 household surveys; six focus group discussions; participatory learning actions methods; key informant's interviews and document review. The majority of households owned low value material assets and had low levels of livelihood capitals and this exposed them to the impacts of climate variability and successive droughts. This low adaptive capacity largely affected their ability to engage effective drought risk reduction and adaptation strategies for their livelihood activities in small-scale farming and livestock rearing. Vulnerability to climate risks was exacerbated by seasonal weather forecasts, which were deemed by some households to be unreliable, inaccurate and not easily understood, while others used of indigenous knowledge. Successive droughts affected households' access to food and cash income for other household demands. Other non-climatic factors that contributed to adverse drought impacts at the household level were an emphasis on reactive humanitarian aid approach and the poor economy in Zimbabwe. Additionally, the policy framework for dealing with climate change and drought hazards is fragmented and weak; and is housed in different government departments making it difficult to coordinate and implement. To improve climate risk management, there is need for the government to appreciate that drought risk reduction and climate change adaptation are all about reducing vulnerability. Understanding this, might assist in improving government focus on addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability and mainstreaming DRR and CCA into development processes through addressing specific and generic adaptive capacities. The thesis argues that as long as rural households are involved in climate sensitive livelihood activities and not getting meaningful intervention to diversity and/or better intensify their livelihood activities, they will continue to be vulnerable to successive climate risks. This fragmented approach to dealing with climate risks, is not yielding any successful results with regards to building resilience, risk reduction or adaptation of rural households.

Orientador: Jefferson de Lima Picanço / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T17:21:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Goto_EricaAkemi_M.pdf: 2434424 bytes, checksum: d71a89d1c7e0e21eb6d76e865565159a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: As grandes cidades brasileiras, como é o caso do município de São Paulo, passaram por uma urbanização acelerada e desorganizada a partir dos anos 60, levando a ocupação de várzeas e morros, e consequente formação de diversas áreas de risco. Uma forma de contribuir para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres nesses locais é através de trabalhos educacionais, como as capacitações de educação não formal voltadas para moradores e técnicos que nesses locais atuam. Com o intuito de entender o papel dessas capacitações e propor diretrizes básicas, foi realizado um estudo dos cursos de educação não formal voltados para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres em áreas de risco a movimentos de massa oferecidos pela Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo (PMSP) nos anos de 2012 e 2013. Para este estudo, acompanharam-se três capacitações: "Percepção de risco", "Capacitação para Mapeamento e Gerenciamento de Áreas de Risco" e "Riscos Ambientais Urbanos: uma Abordagem Preventiva". Para melhor compreendê-las, foram escolhidos alguns indicadores a serem observados, como o público-alvo ao qual foram destinadas e qual atingiram, distribuição geográfica dentro do município, conteúdo e linguagem, uso ou não da pedagogia crítica do lugar, papel didático das saídas de campo e relação com o gerenciamento participativo de riscos proposto pela PMSP. Como metodologia de análise, elaborou-se e aplicou-se questionário, realizou-se entrevista com técnicos da PMSP, analisou-se o material didático e outros matérias cedidos pela PMSP e acompanharam-se as capacitações. Entende-se que essas capacitações são de suma importância, contribuindo para melhorar a percepção de risco dos moradores e técnicos da PMSP. Entretanto, para que elas consigam contribuir a longo prazo para prevenção e mitigação de acidentes e desastres é interessante que não sejam entendidas como atividades pontuais, e pelo contrário, que estejam integradas ao gerenciamento participativo de risco das comunidades em áreas de risco / Abstract: The Brazilian big cities, such as São Paulo, went through an accelerated and disorganized urbanization process after the 1960s. This urbanization process resulted in the construction of low-income housing units in valleys and on slopes, which lead to the formation of many hydrological risk areas. One way of mitigate and prevent accidents and disasters on those areas is with educational activities, like the non-formal courses developed to local inhabitants and municipality technicians who work on those at risk areas. With the goal of a better understanding of the role of those non-formal courses, the author developed a research on those types of courses given by Sao Paulo city municipality during 2012 and 2013. For this research, there were three types of courses studied: "Risk Perception", "Capacity for Risk Area Mapping and Management" and "Environmental Urban Risks: a Prevention Approach". During the research, there were some characteristics observed, such as proposal course target and final course target, geographic distribution of those courses, language and content of the courses, use or not of place conscious education, didactic role of the field activities and relationship with the risk management proposed by Sao Paulo city municipality. With this methodology, there was survey elaboration and application, interview with municipality technicians, didactical material and others materials related with the courses analysis and courses observation. Those types of courses are important to develop risk perception on local inhabitants and municipality technicians. Although, those courses can't be just punctual actions. They have to be put together with community risk management / Mestrado / Ensino e Historia de Ciencias da Terra / Mestra em Ensino e História de Ciências da Terra

Recurring drought conditions have always been an endemic feature of climate in South Africa, limiting maize development and production. However, recent projections of the future climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that due to an increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the frequency and severity of droughts will increase in drought-prone areas, mostly in subtropical climates. This has raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly the vulnerable small-scale farmers who merely rely on rain for crop production. Farmers in the Luvuvhu River catchment are not an exception, as this area is considered economically poor, whereby a significant number of people are dependent on rain-fed farming for subsistence. This study was therefore conducted in order to improve agricultural productivity in the area and thus help in the development of measures to secure livelihoods of those vulnerable small-scale farmers. Two drought indices viz. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were used to quantify drought. A 120-day maturing maize crop was considered and three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on the average start of the rainy season. Frequencies and probabilities during each growing stage of maize were calculated based on the results of the two indices. Temporal variations of drought severity from 1975 to 2015 were evaluated and trends were analyzed using the non-parametric Spearman’s Rank Correlation test at α (0.05) significance level. For assessing climate change impact on droughts, SPEI and WRSI were computed using an output from downscaled projections of CSIRO Mark3.5 under the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 1980/81 – 2099/100. The frequency of drought was calculated and the difference of SPEI and WRSI means between future climate periods and the base period were assessed using the independent t-test at α (0.10) significance level in STATISTICA software. The study revealed that planting a 120-day maturing maize crop in December would pose a high risk of frequent severe-extreme droughts during the flowering to the grain-filling stage at Levubu, Lwamondo, Thohoyandou, and Tshiombo; while planting in October could place crops at a lower risk of reduced yield and even total crop failure. In contrast, stations located in the low-lying plains of the catchment (Punda Maria, Sigonde, and Pafuri) were exposed to frequent moderate droughts following planting in October, with favorable conditions noted following the December planting date. Further analysis on the performance of the crop under various drought conditions revealed that WRSI values corresponding to more intense drought conditions were detected during the December planting date for all stations. Moreover, at Punda Maria, Sigonde and Pafuri, it was observed that extreme drought (WRSI <50) occurred once in five seasons, regardless of the planting date. Temporal analysis on historical droughts in the area indicated that there had been eight agricultural seasons subjected to extreme widespread droughts resulting in total crop failure i.e. 1983/84, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2004/05 and 2014/15. Results of Spearman’s rank correlation test revealed weak increasing drought trends at Thohoyandou (ρ = of 0.5 for WRSI) and at Levubu and Lwamondo (ρ = of 0.4 for SPEI), with no significant trends at the other stations. The study further revealed that climate change would enhance the severity of drought across the catchment. This was statistically significant (at 10% significance level) for the near-future and intermediate-future climates, relative to the base period. Drought remains a threat to rain-fed maize production in the Luvuvhu River catchment area of South Africa. In order to mitigate the possible effects of droughts under climate change, optimal planting dates were recommended for each region. The use of seasonal forecasts during drought seasons would also be useful for local rain-fed maize growers especially in regions where moisture is available for a short period during the growing season. It was further recommended that the Government ensure proper support such as effective early warning systems and inputs to the farmers. Moreover, essential communication between scientists, decision makers, and the farmers can help in planning and decision making ahead of and during the occurrence of droughts. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / M. Sc. (Agriculture)