This study investigates the temporal, spatial and impact characteristics of severe convective storm hazard and risk in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Using historical data on severe convective storms dating from 1897, patterns of the hazard threat and risk to various geographic populations were investigated. A conceptual framework that emphasises the combined role hazard and vulnerability play in defining risk was used for the study. A methodology for ranking the severity of the storms in the historical dataset, based on recorded damage/impact, was specifically developed for the study. It is intended that this methodology will have a potentially wider application and may be adapted to a range of hazard impact and risk studies in South Africa and internationally. The study was undertaken within the context of the South African Disaster Management Act of 2002. Findings of the study show that severe convective storms can occur throughout the province, but there are clearly demarcated areas of higher frequency and concentration. The impact of storms is particularly severe on impoverished and vulnerable rural populations in the eastern parts of the province, where there is an urgent need for building capacity in disaster risk management. A major outcome of the study is the production of a severe convective storm hazard/risk map of the Eastern Cape, which it is hoped will be of benefit to a number of stakeholders in the province, particularly disaster management, but also the South African Weather Service, agricultural organisations, development/planning authorities, educational authorities and risk insurers. It is hoped that this map and the study in general will assist in guiding the operational responses of the various authorities, especially in terms of those interventions aimed at disaster risk reduction in the Eastern Cape.

Proposal submitted in partial fulfilment for the award of MTech in Environmental Management / It is widely believed that experts often have a more rational approach towards risks. This is because they are known to use algorithms, formal logic, risk assessments and normative rules to make decisions about risks. The central tenet of this research is that communication based on an understanding of how people conceptualise and evaluate risk communication efforts is critical for translating risk management knowledge into effective risk practices necessary for value generation in flood risk mitigation. Rational decisionEmaking requires both analytic and intuitive systems to operate on a parallel level. Therefore, this research proposes a Flood Risk Communication Model that takes cognisance of lay perceptions. The model emphasises on how risk communication efforts are evaluated by the lay using a combination of descriptive psychological and social construction theories. In particular, the prospect theory, heuristics and biases, cultural theory and trust theory are used to provide explanatory sketches on how flood risk communication efforts are perceived in highly vulnerable environmental contexts such as informal settlements. The challenge in this research however, lies in verifying the model empirically. The associative group analysis technique will be used to generate empirical data from a case study population. Two basic analytic methods will be employed to measure psychological dispositions of respondents. Firstly, word associations are scored and weighted based on frequency of occurrence to generate a dominance score. The higher the dominance score, the greater the interpretation and the more meaningful the theme is for that particular group. Secondly, the different theories of the model are factored into a questionnaire to measure priorities. All the responses are then compared to the proposed model and also used to evaluate actual lay perceptions and feelings towards the current risk communication interventions. The results showed a high level of consistency with the FRCM and hence with the descriptive psychological models of Kahneman and Tversky. However, we conclude that what is has been proposed to be biases are intuitive tendencies to adapt and make sustainable decisions in the face of applicable contextual influences. Thus, these contextual hierarchies determine the reference point and status quo of the recipient in decision making. Therefore, these influences and hierarchies need to be factored in the designing of a risk communication.

Ph.D., Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011 / In this study, the linkages between sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction and governance are explored, with reference to climate change adaptation. The purpose of the assessment is to ascertain the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of these inter-linkages with regard to climate change adaptation in South Africa. First, a brief review of theoretical debates on sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction, governance and climate change adaptation is given. Currently, it seems, sustainable development, disaster-risk reduction and governance are viewed exclusively from each other and from climate change adaptation. Some theoretical debates suggest that successful, long-term climate change adaptation can only be accomplished if linkages between these concepts, and practices, where relevant, are recognized in development policies. There is thus, a need to understand the relationships between climate change adaptation and development policy AND their linkages and tradeoffs. Coupled to this understanding, there is also a need to assess the role of institutions as well as institutional barriers that may retard or pose a threat to long-term sustainable adaptation. For this case study, the focus is on the 2004/05 drought that occurred in the Eastern Cape. The drought of 2004/05 was particularly severe. Some parts of the Eastern Cape were declared disaster areas. This declaration prompted responses from the various spheres of government, e.g. national, provincial and local. The intention therefore is, firstly, to gain clarity on the linkages between development/sustainable development policies, disaster-risk reduction and governance in the Province that operated during this period and in the periods following this drought. Secondly, the intention is to understand how the spheres of governance work together in responding to climate-related disasters. Responses from the community reveal that coupled to poor development planning; there is also limited and poor institutional capacity to respond to the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability and change. This poor institutional capacity is further complicated by a lack of coordination between the three spheres of government, i.e. national, provincial and local, as well as across national government departments. It is suggested that first, a good structure of cooperative governance and disaster-risk reduction is needed in South Africa. This structure should allow for multi-faceted and holistic development planning that focuses on saving lives, protecting livelihoods and assets. A good structure of governance should provide an environment that is sustainable and conducive to long-term climate change adaptation. What this case study also reveals is that monetary relief and assistance alone is not an effective response to climate variability and change. What is thus also needed is more vigilant monitoring of development projects and relief-funds as well as coordinated governance of development activities between national, provincial and local governments. Such an organized structure of governance could aid the country in gearing up for climate change adaptation.

Thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Master of Science in Development Planning to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Architecture and Planning at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / Throughout the 21st century, floods have caused major disasters in urban areas worldwide and especially in Africa. Several factors influence the ability of government to manage flood disasters through the phases of, preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery at a local level. The vulnerability of poor communities to flood disasters exacerbates the impact of the flooding on their livelihoods. The inability of governments to communicate effectively with communities about preparedness strategies for flood mitigation has resulted in much damage in urban areas. The study used semi-structured interviews with Disaster Management officials and community members involved in flooding to evaluate the Disaster Risk Management in Bramfischerville. The fieldwork took place in Bramfischerville that was affected by the 2009 floods. The research revealed that the 2009 Bramfischerville floods were caused by heavy rains, the building of RDP housing on a floodplain and ineffective implementation of Disaster Management strategies by the CoJ. This research argues that in order to understand flood disasters, cooperation between all stakeholders involved in Disaster Management is vital in knowledge accumulation. The 2009 floods had negatively impacted the livelihoods of people in Bramfischerville. Their houses were damaged and they had difficulty traveling to work and school. In this view, the costs associated with floods are continuously being a debt for the people living in Bramfischerville. This research found that the disjuncture between the community and the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) officials exacerbates the negative impacts floods have on people’s livelihoods in Bramfischerville. / MT2018

Thesis (Ph. D. (Social Work)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / Refer to the document / National Research Foundation (NRF) and National Research Foundation - Centre in Indigenous Knowledge Systems (NRF- CIKS)

MURP / Department of Urban and Regional Planning / Disaster is posing serious threats to both human lives, infrastructure and the environment at large. Greater Tzaneen Municipality (GTM) is one of the many municipalities that suffer from flood related disasters. Lack of integration between Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and spatial planning has compounded the disaster risk situation in the municipality. This study sought to investigate the prospects of integrating spatial planning with disaster risk reduction in flood prone areas of GTM. The study is guided by three research objectives. First, the study sought to analyse spatial planning attributes that can be valorised for DRR in flood prone areas; Secondly, it sought to analyse spatial planning factors that define vulnerability attributes of households occupying flood prone areas. Finally, the study sought to perform a cluster analytical creation of a typology of households whose resilience to flooding could be enhanced through spatial planning. Twenty-five flood prone areas were analysed on the basis of four main flood vulnerability attributes. In order to identify such vulnerability attributes, the study borrowed critical insights from literatures on flood vulnerability, spatial planning and DRR. Such a critical review of literature was complemented by the use of pattern matching as a qualitative research instrument. Quantitative that was gathered using a structured observation checklist. Quantitative data generated was first subjected to various statistical tests that included Normality and Reliability Tests. Common measures of Normality test used included measures of skewness, kurtosis and the use of Normal Q-Q plots. To assess flood vulnerability, Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was used. HCA was used to identify clusters of flood prone areas which had common characteristics in terms of the four main study constructs proposed by the study which included the physical/engineering, socio-economic, ecological/natural and political or governance conditions characterizing each area. HCA was then used to identify main clusters exhibiting similar characteristics and the associated level of vulnerability of such of communities occupying such clusters. Study results revealed 2 main clusters of flood prone areas whose differences lay in interactions that existed between the physical/engineering, socio-economic, ecological/natural and political or governance conditions characterizing each area. Such clusters depicted 2 levels of vulnerability that is high, and moderate. A number of opportunities and constraints were generated using the SWOT matrix strategy with the main results showing that spatial planning elements characterizing flood prone areas could be transformed into critical urban risk management options for DRR. This is because a spatial planning elements were found to have a direct influences on critical factors of DRR such as location of activities. The study concluded by recommending a number of spatial planning strategies that can be vaporized for DRR. Such strategies are systematically aligned to the unique vulnerability context conditions associated with the two flood vulnerability solution arrived at using HCA. / NRF

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: During the period 2006-2012, the Langkloof area, situated in the Eden District Municipality, suffered severely from environmental shocks and social stress including drought, flooding, hail, wildfire, heatwaves and reduced labour demand. These events negatively impacted many farmers and their livelihoods. In response to these external shocks and stressors, large-, medium- and small-scale farmers adopted numerous coping and adaptive strategies. This study performed a comprehensive livelihoods analysis of large-, medium- and small-scale farmers in the Langkloof area, using the widely recognized sustainable livelihoods framework developed by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, with a particular focus on coping and adaptive strategies against severe environmental shock and social stress. Variables used in the analysis were the vulnerability context in which farmers pursue a livelihood; livelihood assets (social, human, financial, natural and physical); the policies, institutions and processes in the external environment that influence the degree of ownership and access to assets; livelihood strategies pursued; and the various livelihood outcomes ultimately produced. The analysis of coping and adaptive strategies employed by farmers during these periods formed an integral part of this study. Sixteen livelihood asset indicators were identified to determine the total assets (human, social, physical, financial and natural) of the farmers. After scaling the indicators, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to assign weights to each indicator and to subsequently calculate the total assets of each household. Regarding the coping and adaptive strategies employed by farmers against environmental shock and social stress, the average number of strategies was calculated for each household. Spearman’s rank correlations were calculated for total assets achieved (capacity) and the number of strategies employed against environmental shock and social stress. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Langkloofgedied, geleë in die Eden Distriksmunisipalitiet, is gedurende die tydperk 2006-2012 geweldig geteister deur omgewings- en sosiale gebeure, wat droogte, vloede, hael, veldbrande, hittegolwe en ʼn gevolglike verlaagde arbeidsaanvraag sluit. Hierdie rampe het verreikende nadelige gevolge op boere se lewensbestaan gehad. Terwyl hulle lewensbestaan tot die uiterste uitgedaag is, is verskeie hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres geïmplementeer. Met die gebruik van die Verenigde Koninkryk se Departement van Internasionale Ontwikkeling se volhoubare lewensbestaansraamwerk is ʼn gedetailleerde en alomvattende analise van groot, medium- en kleinskaalboere in die Langkloof se lewensbestaan gedoen, met ʼn sterk skem op hul hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë teen omgewingskok en sosiale stress. Die analise veranderlikes het die kwesbaarsheidskonteks waarin boere hul lewensbestaan aanpak; hul verskeie bates (menslik, sosiaal, finansieel, fisies en natuurlik); die beleide, instansies en prosesse in die eksterne omgewing wat toegang tot en eienaarskap van bates reguleer; hul lewensbestaanstrategieë; en die lewensbestaansuitkomste wat bereik word, behels. Die analise van die boere se hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë geïmplementeer teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres gedurende hierdie tydperk was ʼn integrale rol van hierdie studie. Sestien aanwysers is geïdentifiseer om die totale lewensbestaansbates (menslik, sosiaal, fisies, finansieel en natuurlik) van die boere te bepaal. Nadat die aanwysers geskaal is, is ‘n Hoofkomponentanalise (PCA) uitgevoer om gewigte aan elke aanwyser toe te ken vir die berekening van totale bates van huishoudings. Die hanterings- en aanpassingstrategieë ingestel deur boere teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres, is die gemiddelde aantal strategieë per huishouding. Spearman se rangorde korrelasies is bereken vir die totale bates (kapasiteit) en die getal strategieë geïmplementeer teen omgewingskok en sosiale stres.

Text in English with summary and keywords in English and Afrikaans / The International Organization for Standardization - ISO 14001 environmental standard addresses facets of environmental performance. The implementation of ISO 14001:2015 is aligned with various risks and opportunities, the identification and addressing of which is key in the successful implementation of the ISO 14001:2015 certification. The Durban region is a pollution ‘hotspot’ within KwaZulu-Natal. Assessment of the opportunities and risks of ISO 14001:2015 implementation within the region is key as it can potentially assist with proactive mitigation of risks and the effective utilization of opportunities. The aim of the study is to understand SHERQ (Safety, Health, Environmental, Risk and Quality) managerial perspectives of opportunities and risks of ISO 14001:2015 implementation in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. The following objectives were outlined: To identify ISO 14001 implementation opportunities and risks internationally and nationally by means of an extensive review of international as well as national literature sources, to generate an evaluation framework to assess SHERQ managerial perspectives of risks and opportunities of ISO 14001:2015 implementation within Durban and to analyse SHERQ managerial responses to the ISO 14001:2015 implementation risks and opportunities within the Durban region. The methods included identifying primary opportunities and risks in ISO 14001:2015 from the literature review through an evaluation framework, thereafter, presenting these in questionnaires distributed among SHERQ managers in Durban via email and LinkedIn. Of 62 questionnaires distributed, 42 participants responded. The respondent’s perspectives were assessed through SPSS identifying key risks and opportunities. Objective 1 was achieved through the literature review in which ISO 14001 implementation risks and opportunities were identified. Objective 2 was achieved by generating the evaluation framework which assimilated implementation risks and opportunities. Objective 3 was achieved through the analysis of the responses of respondents to ISO 14001:2015 implementation risks and opportunities. Study results showed that, in line with international reports, 57.2% of all respondents agreed that the maintenance costs of compliance to the standard are high and 76.2% of respondents shared the perspective that company resources are better managed. Respondents were more agreeable to positive statements, indicating opportunities outweighing the risks. Furthermore, despite the risks, there are opportunities from an industry perspective such as increased investor inputs and increased top management involvement. A follow up study is recommended in the Durban region addressing ISO 14001 implementation risks, opportunities, and their investment impacts in order to further hone in on the organizational implications of certification. From an academic standpoint, multiple studies have posited that ISO 14001:2015 implementation resulted in improved financial outcomes but are associated with high implementation costs and it is recommended that a critical cost versus profits analysis into ISO 14001:2015 implementation be undertaken in the Durban region. / Die Internasionale Organisasie vir Standaardisering se ISO 14001-omgewingstandaard spreek fasette van omgewingsprestasie aan. Die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 is gerig op verskeie risiko’s en geleenthede, en die identifisering en aanspreek hiervan staan sentraal tot die suksesvolle implementering van die ISO 14001:2015 - sertifisering. Die Durban-streek is ʼn besoedlingsbrandpunt in KwaZulu-Natal. Evaluering van die geleenthede en risiko’s van die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 binne die streek is van kardinale belang, aangesien dit moontlik kan help met die proaktiewe vermindering van risiko’s en die effektiewe benutting van geleenthede. Die doel van die studie is om SHERQ-bestuursperspektiewe van geleenthede en risiko’s van ISO 14001:2015-implementering in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, te begryp. Die volgende doelwitte is uiteengesit: Om ISO 14001-implementeringsgeleenthede en risiko’s internasionaal en nasionaal te identifiseer deur middel van ʼn uitgebreide oorsig van internasionale sowel as identifiseer deur middel van ʼn uitgebreide oorsig van internasionale sowel as nasionale literatuurbronne; om ʼn evalueringsraamwerk te genereer om SHERQ-bestuursperspektiewe van geleenthede en risiko’s van die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 te evalueer, en om SHERQ-bestuursreaksies op die ISO 14001:2015-implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede te ontleed. Die metodes het ingesluit die identifisering van primêre geleenthede en risiko’s in ISO 14001:2015 vanuit die literatuurbeoordeling deur middel van ʼn evalueringsraamwerk, waarna dit in vraelyste wat via e-pos en LinkedIn onder SHERQ-bestuurders in Durban versprei is, uiteengesit is. Van die 62 vraelyste wat versprei is, het 42 deelnemers geantwoord. Die perspektiewe van die respondente is beoordeel deur middel van SPSS se identifisering van die belangrikste risiko’s en geleenthede. Doelwit 1 is bereik deur middel van die literatuuroorsig waarin ISO 14001-implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede geïdentifiseer is. Doelwit 2 is bereik deur die evalueringsraamwerk te genereer wat implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede geassimileer het. Doelwit 3 is bereik deur die antwoorde van respondente op ISO 14001:2015 implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede te ontleed. Studieresultate het getoon dat, in ooreenstemming met internasionale verslae, 57,2% van alle respondente dit eens was dat die onderhoudskoste van die nakoming van die standaard hoog is en dat 76,2% van die respondente die perspektief gedeel het dat bronne van die maatskappy beter bestuur word. Respondente het meer met positiewe stellings saamgestem, wat daarop dui dat geleenthede swaarder weeg as die risiko’s. Ten spyte van die risiko’s, is daar ook vanuit ʼn bedryfsperspektief geleenthede, soos verhoogde beleggersinsette en verbeterde hulpbronbestuur. ʼn Opvolgstudie word aanbeveel om ISO 14001-implementeringsrisiko’s en geleenthede en die beleggingsimpak daarvan aan te spreek. Vanuit ʼn akademiese oogpunt het veelvuldige studies aangevoer dat die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 verbeterde finansiële uitkomste tot gevolg het, maar dat dit met hoë implementeringskoste gepaard gaan, en dit word aanbeveel dat ʼn kritieke koste-versus-wins-analise in die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 in die Durban-streek onderneem word. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)