The main aim of my thesis is to describe the development of the American dollar's position within the historical background, its role in a globalized economy and analyze the current position of the dollar as the world's leading currency. The thesis is divided into three parts. First part is dedicated to the theoretical background concerning exchange rates and currency regimes. The second chapter considers the history of the international monetary system with the relation to the dollar. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics determining the role of American dollar. This chapter also describes some problems of American economy, analyses exchange rate of dollar against Euro and gives possible forecast of dollar's position for the future.

This master thesis deals with a number of international processes in terms of geoeconomics. The main goal of this work is to research the position of dollar, ruble and petroleum in geoeconomic processes. At first goes the analysis of the current condition of the United States dollar, the assessment of exposure level of the system to other countries to establish the real role of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Then goes the analysis of the current status of Russian ruble and the Central Bank of Russian Federation. A large part of the work is devoted to petroleum as a basic raw material at present and its relations to U.S. dollar. At the end is the assessment of the U.S. dollar prospects in the 21 century and possible solutions, which will probably help to eliminate the negative consequences in case of using dollar as the dominant financial system in the world.

This thesis maps the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currency with a main focus on the second half of the 20th century and the role of dollar in the world economy. The thesis spans from the end of the Second World War to the eve of the last global financial crisis. The thesis documents, how dollar became the leading international currency during the Bretton Woods system era. Although the inner conflicts led to breakup of the system, dollar remained the most important currency. Despite many attempts, a successful reform of the international monetary system never happened since then. In the last 30 years, the uncoordinated U.S. monetary policy led to rapid growth of imbalances in the world economy and consequently to the 2007/08 Financial crisis. The thesis shows that the viable reform can build on the original plan of John M. Keynes, which prepared for the Bretton Woods conference.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Yim Kyu Lee.pdf: 844652 bytes, checksum: 4c191989a678bd58df27a6ae41c712ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-09-30 / This dissertation analyses the period of weakening of the U.S. dollar in the 2001-2007 period and the three possible scenarios: (i) the maintenance and adjustment of the freefloating currency system, through the prolonged effects of the devaluation of the dollar, (ii) the protracted decline of the dollar as world currency, with the transfer of all or part of its role to another currency, with the Euro as most likely candidate, (iii) U.S. reaction in the style of the Volcker s shock in 1979-1980. It discusses whether there are limits to the setting in which the dollar, in the role of main reserve currency, is issued in large quantities to cover the U.S. current account deficits and whether the world will keep financing these deficits and paying significant margins of contribution to the United States, the so-called "exorbitant privilege" of the country issuing the world currency. The dissertation studies the formation of the freefloating dollar standard after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971-73 and the stages of its development, highlighting the period from 2001, which was marked by a sharp decline in the value the dollar. We draw attention to the similarities with the period of weakening of 1974-1980, which led to strong reaction from the United States with the high increase of interest and the imposition of credit controls, a process known as "Volcker s shock" / A dissertação analisa o período de enfraquecimento do dólar nos anos 2001-2007 e as alternativas colocadas no momento: (i) sustentação e ajustamento do sistema dólar flexível, por meio dos efeitos da desvalorização prolongada do dólar; (ii) declínio prolongado da posição do dólar como moeda mundial, com a transferência total ou parcial de seu papel para outra moeda, tendo o euro como candidato óbvio; (iii) reação dos EUA no estilo do choque de Volcker de 1979-1980. Discute-se se há limites para a configuração em que o dólar, no papel de moeda de reserva principal, é emitido em grandes quantidades em razão dos déficits em transações correntes norte-americanos, e se o mundo manterá o financiamento destes déficits pagando uma margem de contribuição expressiva para os Estados Unidos, o chamado "privilégio exorbitante" do país emissor da moeda mundial. A dissertação analisa a formação do padrão dólar-flexível, após a ruptura do sistema de Bretton Woods, em 1971-73, e as etapas de seu desenvolvimento, com destaque para os anos recentes, a partir de 2001, período marcado pelo declínio acentuado do valor do dólar. Destacam-se as semelhanças com o período de enfraquecimento de 1974-1980 que conduziu à forte reação dos Estados Unidos, com a forte elevação dos juros e a imposição de controles de crédito, processo conhecido como "choques de Volcker"

Development and description of the nominal exchange rate of the dollar since 1945. Specification of determinants, which affected dollar exchange rate in the period. Consequences for United states economy and stability of the world fiscal system. Relation between dollar exchange rate and price of gold, relation between dollar exchange rate and price of crude oil. Relation betweén dollar exchange rate and significant financial crisis. Deskripce vývoje nominálního kursu dolaru v období od r. 1945 do současnosti. Určení faktorů, které tento vývoj ovlivňovaly. Důsledky pro ekonomiku USA a stabilitu světového finančního systému. Souvislost vývoje kursu dolaru se změnami cen zlata a ropy. Souvislost s významnějšími finančními krizemi.

The thesis deals with the development and status of global imbalances in contemporary global economy in connection with changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. From this point of view, the paper firstly focuses on the current diversification of the world economy to clarify the position of the U.S. monetary system in the sphere of global imbalances. Secondly, it concentrates on the long-term trends in the U.S. dollar exchange rate as the world's main currency. Finally, the thesis focuses on potential changes in the economic policy of the main actors of global imbalances and presents possible solution to these imbalances in the world economy.

[pt] Teorias internacionais na área de economia e finanças acreditam em uma relação significante entre o mercado cambial futuro e o mercado cambial à vista. Se esta afirmação for verdadeira, isto significa que os valores negociados no mercado futuro seriam bons previsores dos valores que viriam a ser negociados no mercado à vista em uma data futura. No entanto, diversos estudos e dados empíricos revelam que este evento não se mostra fiel no mercado cambial brasileiro (Real/Dólar) bem como em outros mercados cambiais internacionais, em especial nos principais mercados europeus. A justificativa para tal, estaria na presença de prêmios de risco não observáveis. Desta forma, o objetivo deste presente estudo é avaliar o motivo da não ocorrência deste evento, recorrendo a estudos internacionais variados, de modo a testar e avaliar um grupo de variáveis que poderiam auxiliar no entendimento deste descasamento das taxas. As quatro variáveis selecionadas neste estudo são: diferença entre os valores de compra e venda da taxa à vista e a termo; a diferença da taxa a termo e à vista no mesmo período; e a diferença real e em módulo da taxa à vista e a taxa à vista carregada pelo modelo de paridade do poder de compra. Estas são analisadas em dois modelos de horizontes, de um mês e doze meses e a escolha por estas variáveis foi baseada na identificação de suas significâncias em estudos em diferentes mercados como, por exemplo, com a taxa libra/euro, bem como são aproximações dos prêmios de risco de liquidez, temporal e cambial. Os resultados apurados indicam que variáveis como a diferença entre os valores de compra e venda da taxa a termo e a diferença real da taxa à vista e a taxa à vista carregada pelo modelo de paridade do poder de compra, possuem relações significantes quando se busca entender o descasamento das taxas a termo e à vista. No entanto, testes de confiabilidade dos modelos, indicam certa restrição com relação aos resultados gerados. O estudo é finalizado indicando que as variáveis significantes podem auxiliar no entendimento do descasamento das taxas. Porém, a existência de eventos de stress de ordem política, monetária e jurídica entre outros (exemplos de risco país) inviabiliza determinar uma variável que ajude a explicar, com alto nível de significância, este evento. Além disso, caso a identificação de variáveis fosse trivial e com comportamento uniforme haveria a possibilidade de arbitragem no mercado cambial e, portanto, investidores poderiam auferir lucros sem exposição alguma à riscos. / [en] International theories in economy and finance areas expects a significant relation between forward and spot exchange markets where negotiations in forward market could predict the future of spot negotiations. However, this event is not noted at Brazilian exchange market (Brazilian real/dollar) as well at others international markets, especially at developed European markets. The reason would be in the presence of unobservable risk premiums. Therefore, the objective of that research is to evaluate the reason of that event does not run, utilizing some international researches, in order to test and to evaluate variables that could explain that rate s gap. The four variables selected for this study are: forward and spot bid-ask; the difference between forward and spot rates; and difference (real and absolute) between spot rate and spot rate built from purchase parity power condition. These variables are studied on one and twelve months horizons ans that selection has considered the presented significance in others international researches, for example libra/euro exchange rate, and because they are proxies of liquidity, time-varying and currency risk premium. The main results indicate that variables are significant despite the fact that some confiability tests show negative results. For instance, forward bid-ask and difference (real and absolute) between spot rate and spot rate built from purchase parity power condition presented a significance. The study is concluded affirming that some variables could help to explain that gap s rate. However, the existence of country risk does not allow the identification of a enough strong variable. Otherwise, it would enable investors to arbitrage and to profit without risk exposure.

[pt] Historicamente, observa-se que as volatilidades de variáveis financeiras são drasticamente afetadas em períodos de crises econômicas. Em particular, essa observação é válida para a taxa de câmbio entre o Real e o Dólar norte-americano, o Índice Bovespa e o EMBI Brasil (Emerging Market Bond Índex+Brazil), usualmente utilizado como medida de Risco-País para a economia brasileira. Diante de tais evidências empíricas, a existência de um fator comum entre as volatilidades das três variáveis citadas torna-se uma suposição plausível. O presente trabalho propõe a extração deste fator latente, através da estimação por Quasi Máxima Verossimilhança de uma adaptação do modelo de volatilidade estocástica. A estimação é feita através da aplicação do filtro de Kalman em sua versão difusa, uma vez que se supõe que as volatilidades das variáveis em questão seguem processos não estacionários. A conclusão do trabalho apontou para a existência de um único fator comum às volatilidades mencionadas, corroborando as expectativas preliminares. / [en] Historically, financial variables’ volatilities are drastically affected during economical crisis periods. In particular, this statement is valid for the exchange rate between brazilian and north american currencies, the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (Ibovespa) and the Emerging Market Bond Index + Brazil, usually interpreted as a measure of brazilian sovereign risk. Therefore, the presence of a common factor affecting the volatilities of these three variables becomes a plausible assumption. This work intends to extract this latent factor applying the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator into an adapted stochastic volatility model. The estimation requires the Kalman filtering on its diffuse version, once it’s supposed that the volatilities follow a non stationary process. The results indicated the presence of one common factor driving the mentioned volatilities, confirming the previous expectations.

Este trabajo de investigación pretende analizar los determinantes de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real en el Perú para el periodo de enero de 1995 a diciembre de 2018, en ese sentido, se tiene como objetivo determinar qué variables influyen en la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real y en qué magnitud afectan para así contrastar las hipótesis planteadas. El modelo econométrico que se usará para estimar la volatilidad del tipo de cambio será el GARCH y se tomó como principales determinantes de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real a la apertura comercial, los términos de intercambio, inflación, la intervención cambiaria y el diferencial de tasas doméstica y extranjera.

Diploma thesis deals with the US external economic balance, particularly balance of payments, international investment position, indebtness and the dollar exchange rate. The first part includes the theoretical approach to external economic balance and related terms. Furthermore, I focus on the status of current and financial account of the United States in detail. Here I evaluate the balances of BOP parts and search for the explanation of this situation. I also focus on international investment position of the United States, the development of foreign direct investment and debt indicators. The work also contains a detailed analysis of the U.S. balance of payments for the years 2004 - 2008. The last section is a treatise on the history of the dollar, development of its rate, expected future developments and relationships with U.S. major trading partner, China.