Perception of abilities plays an important role in informing one’s decisions at times and often in forming one’s self perception. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a fascinating and empirically observable bias in which top performers tend to make more accurate estimations of their ability than bottom performers. The current theory states that the effect is caused by top performers possessing greater metacognitive ability than bottom performers. There have been many alternative theories and explanations proposed to explain the observed Dunning-Kruger effect. The current study is the first to test whether top and bottom performers base their predictions on inflated preconceived notions of ability, rather than their metacognitive ability. This theory proposes that if top and bottom performers both based their predictions of performance on their preconceived notions of ability it would create a Dunning-Kruger effect. This presupposes that that both top and bottom performers make above average estimates of performance as they hold preconceived notions of above average ability. Thus, top performers’ predictions of performance would be most accurate as their performance would be above average, whereas bottom performers would most overestimate their performance as their performance would be below average. The intention of this study was, thus, to assess whether either top or bottom performers based their predictions of performance on preconceived notions of ability or using metacognitive ability. A total of 97 university students were divided into two groups and given an identical test, one group containing 49 participants were told the test measured Logical Thinking and the remaining 48 participants were told the test measured Computational Mathematics. After completing the test, which was a 23 item preparatory test for the LSAT, participants were asked to estimate their ability in the domain being assessed, their performance relative to their peers and their score out of 23. A t-test was used to compare the two groups and it was found that the Logical Thinking and Computational Mathematical group made significantly different predictions of ability and therefore held significantly different preconceived notions of ability. Further t-tests were used to compare the estimates of ability and predictions of performance of the two groups of top and bottom performers. A significant difference was found between the two groups of top performers’ prediction of ability. However, there was no significant difference between any of the other scores of the two groups of top and bottom performers. Therefore, the alternative theory that top and bottom performers base their predictions of performance on preconceived notions of ability was found to be invalid. Therefore, the current theory which states that top performers’ superior metacognitive ability allow them to make more accurate estimates of performance than bottom performers is still the best account for the Dunning-Kruger effect. / Dissertation (MA)--University of Pretoria,2015. / Psychology / Unrestricted

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a metacognitive phenomenon in which individuals who perform poorly on a task believe they performed well, whereas individuals who performed very well believe their performance was only average. To date, this effect has only been investigated in the context of performance on mathematical, logical, or lexical tasks, but has yet to be explored for its generalizability in episodic memory task performance. We used a novel method to elicit the Dunning-Kruger Effect via a memory test of item and source recognition confidence. Participants studied 4 lists of words and were asked to make a simple decision about the words (source memory, i.e. Is it manmade? Is it alive?). They were later tested on their episodic memory and source memory for the words using a five-point recognition confidence scale, while electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded. After the test, participants were asked to estimate the percentile in which they performed compared to other students. Participants were separated into four quartiles based on their performance accuracy. Results showed that participants in all four groups estimated the same percentile for their performance. Participants in the bottom 25th percentile overestimated their percentile the most, while participants in the top 75th percentile slightly under-estimated their percentile, exhibiting the DKE and extending its phenomenon into studies of episodic memory. Groups were then re-categorized into participants that over-estimated, correctly estimated, and under-estimated their percentile estimate. Over-estimators responded significantly faster than under-estimators when estimating themselves as in the top percentile and they responded slower when evaluating themselves as in the bottom percentile. EEG first revealed generic scalp-wide differences within-subjects for all memory judgments as compared to all self-estimates of metacognition, indicating an effective sensitivity to task differences. More specific differences in late parietal sites were evident between high percentile estimates and low percentile estimates. Between-group differences were evident between over-estimators and under-estimators when collapsing across all Dunning-Kruger responses, which revealed a larger late parietal component (LPC) associated with recollection-based processing in under-estimators compared to those of over-estimators when assessing their memory judgements. These findings suggest that over- and under-estimators use differing cognitive strategies when assessing their performance and that under-estimators use less recollection when remembering episodic items, thereby revealing that episodic memory processes are playing a contributory role in the metacognitive judgments of illusory superiority that are characterized by the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Vikten av privat sparande har aldrig varit större och samtidigt som den finansiella marknaden har blivit mer riskfylld har fler privatpersoner börjat investera i aktier. Många studier, såväl nationella som internationella, har återkommande gånger visat att den finansiella okunskapen är utbredd och att ett flertal individer saknar grundläggande ekonomisk förståelse för begrepp som har en direkt påverkan på deras privatekonomi. Samtidigt har andra studier återkommande gånger konstaterat att investerare besitter ett allt för högt självförtroende i förhållande till sin faktiska finansiella förmåga, vilket i praktiken kan leda till att individer utsätter sig för betydligt högre finansiella risker än de är medvetna om. I denna studie undersöker författarna relationen mellan den aktieintresserade svenskens uppskattade- och faktiska finansiella förmåga, samt hur den påverkar dennes spar- och riskbeteende gällande deltagande på aktiemarknaden, val av att delegera investeringsbeslut, diversifiering, handelsfrekvens samt spontanitet på aktiemarknaden. Syftet är att undersöka om den uppskattade finansiella förmågan systematiskt varierar med den individens faktiska förmåga samt personlighets karaktäristiska. Vidare syftar studien till att öka investerares medvetenhet om sitt egna beteende för att hjälpa denne att fatta mer genomtänkta investeringsbeslut. Med ett deduktivt angreppssätt och en positivistisk kunskapssyn har författarna genomfört en kvantitativ undersökning på data insamlad via en webbaserad enkätundersökning. Enkäten publicerades i två grupper på Facebook för aktieintresserade individer mellan datumen 11/3–2018 till 20/3–2018. Utifrån den insamlade datan kunde t-test samt regressionsanalyser konstatera att den aktieintresserade svenskens uppskattade finansiella förmåga varierade systematiskt med dennes faktiska finansiella förmåga. Individer med låg finansiell förmåga överskattar sin förmåga medan individer med hög finansiell förmåga underskattar sin förmåga. Testen fann även att överskattningen steg med intresse, ålder, om individen läst en ekonomikurs samt om individen var man. Finansiell förmåga påverkar även investerare att själva fatta investeringsbeslut istället för att delegera uppgiften till utomstående. Inga signifikanta resultat hittades för att nivån på finansiell förmåga eller graden av överskattning påverkade spar- eller riskbeteende. De signifikanta resultat som identifierats angående spar- och riskbeteende är att äldre är mer diversifierade; kvinnor är mer spontana på aktiemarknaden; kvinnor har en högre handelsfrekvens än män; de som läst på universitet är mindre spontana på aktiemarknaden; de som läst ekonomikurs är mer spontana på aktiemarknaden. Utifrån resultatet uppmanar författarna investerare att ifrågasätta sin förmåga och politiker till att se över skol- samt pensionssystemet. Genom att förse elever med finansiell kunskap kan deras övervärderade uppskattning av sin förmåga minska och genom att låta myndigheter ta ett större ansvar för pensionen minskar risken att individens framtida pension försämras på grund av felaktiga investeringsbeslut till följd av individens missuppfattade finansiella förmåga.

The amount of information in the world has grown exponentially in the last generation. Students often believe that growing up as digital natives means they have advanced information literacy skills. However, school librarians are not seeing evidence of this in their schools. The purpose of this study was to determine if secondary students overestimate their information literacy (IL) abilities, if relationships exist between IL self-efficacy and performance, and if grade level or self-efficacy level changes those relationships. To accomplish this, data were collected from two middle schools and three high schools from a total of 397 students in grades 6, 9, and 12. Students completed the Information Literacy Self-efficacy Scale (ILSES) and the Tool for Real-time Assessment of Information Literacy Skills (TRAILS) to measure their IL self-efficacy and performance. The data were examined as a whole, by grade level, by self-efficacy level, and by a breakdown of combined self-efficacy level and grade level. Analyses involved t-tests, bivariate correlations, and hierarchical linear regression. Results showed that all groups overestimated their IL abilities and that the overestimation increased as self-efficacy level increased. In addition, correlations provided evidence of a relationship between IL self-efficacy and performance for each grade level and for each self-efficacy level. Another finding was that in all grade levels, higher self-efficacy equated to higher performance, however, for a large percent of students, high self-efficacy equated with lower scores. Grade level did have an effect on the relationship between IL self-efficacy and performance. This effect showed statistical and practical significance when grade level was used as a covariate but only practical significance when used as a moderating variable. Overall, ninth graders showed a dip in performance when compared to sixth and twelfth grades.