Este trabalho testa a validade da Hipótese das Expectativas, segundo a qual as taxas de juros de longo prazo são formadas pela média das expectativas sobre as taxas de curto prazo futuras. O estudo baseia-se em dois artigos reconhecidos internacionalmente: Fama e Bliss (1987) e Cochrane e Piazzesi (2005). Os testes são realizados utilizando-se retornos em excesso e taxas forward mensais para títulos com prazo de vencimento entre dois e cinco anos. A base de dados consiste em observações mensais da taxa à vista de contratos futuros de DI. Os resultados apontam para a rejeição da HE para o caso brasileiro. Uma combinação linear de taxas forward é capaz de explicar a variação dos retornos em excesso com R² de até 0,63 para um título com maturidade em dois anos. / This work tests the validity of Expectations Hypothesis (EH), which posts that the long-term rates are an average of future expectations of short-term rates. The study is based on two internationally recognized papers: Fama e Bliss (1987) and Cochrane e Piazzesi (2005). The tests are performed using monthly observations on excess returns and forward rates for 2 to 5 year bonds. The data consists in monthly observations of ID future contracts yields. The results suggest rejection the EH for the Brazilian case. A linear combination of forward rates is able to explain excess returns variation with R² up to 0.63 for 2-year bonds.

This study examines to what extent how oil movements differently affect equity returns in general and sectoral levels of the GCC countries stock markets. Modeling the equity returns volatility requires using GARCH-type models. These models help to explore the pronounced differences of the conditional variance structures across sectors and markets. Chapter 1 compares the effects of changes in oil price return and its volatility on equity returns and volatility across sectors. The findings of this chapter show that despite the GCC states dependency on oil revenues, equity market performance at the sectoral level do not exactly associate with oil movements. Our results, in particular, show that the GCC stock markets do not always move hand-in-hand with oil market movements. In chapter 2, we explore the relationship within a specific sector, i.e. Banks sector in Saudi Arabia Stock market. We examine if oil price changes affect Islamic banks differently than conventional ones. The findings show a decrease in degree of co-movement between these two types of banking system and oil market, meaning that they are less integrated. Although the Islamic banks kept a higher degree of co-movement with oil, limitations of Shari'ah restrictions on Islamic banks have little impact on the relationship between oil and those banks. Chapter 3 examines whether the level of corruption influences how oil changes affect the GCC stock markets. The findings of chapter 3 show that dissimilar levels of corruption between GCC countries have inconsiderable differences on the oil return effects on the GCC stock markets. Oil returns affect both low and high level of corruption groups. The oil return innovation affects the equity volatility for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait more than other four GCC countries.

This study examines how stock market returns and volatility responses to macroeconomic news announcements in US and Europe, and oil prices. Moreover, the market risk associated with these stock markets based on selected countries and regions is also analyzed here. In all chapters, the data is in a weekly time horizon and it covers 21 countries from different contents. In particular, Data covers three different time periods, i.e. full sample from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2015, before the financial crisis, i.e. from 1/1/2000 to 9/27/2008 and after the financial crisis, i.e. from 10/11/2008 to 12/31/2015. Chapter 2 studies the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on stock markets in 21 countries using US and European countries macroeconomic news announcements. The first part investigates the impact of macroeconomic news announcements surprises in US and European Countries on stock markets returns in these countries. The second part analyzes the impact of macroeconomic news announcements in US and European Countries on stock markets volatility in these countries. Our results show that stock markets in selected countries react differently to macroeconomic news announcement in US and Europe. Chapter 3 study the interaction and volatility spillover between oil prices and stock markets returns and volatility in selected countries and regions. Oil prices are based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The analysis use VAR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model to capture the interdependence between stocks market and oil prices. The findings show that there is interdependence between stock markets and oil price changes in most selected countries and regions. Chapter 4 study the market risk in stock markets returns in selected countries and regions using IGARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1) to obtain the value at risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES). The findings of chapter 4 show that market risk was high for most selected countries before the financial crisis and low after the financial crisis.

x, 94 p. : ill. (some col.) / This paper examines how competition faced by firms affects asset risk and expected returns. Contrary to Hou and Robinson's (2006) findings, I find that cross-industry variation in competition, as measured by the concentration ratio, is not a robust determinant of unconditional expected stock returns. In contrast, within-industry competition, as measured by relative price markup, is positively related to expected stock returns. Moreover, this relation is not captured by commonly used models of expected returns. When using the Markov regime-switching model advocated by Perez-Quiros and Timmermann (2000), I test and find support for Aguerrevere's (2009) recent model of competition find risk dynamics. In particular, systematic risk is greater in more competitive industries during bad times and greater in more concentrated industries during good times. In addition, real investment by firms facing greater competition leads real investment by firms facing less competition, supporting Aguerrevere's notion that less competition results in higher growth options and hence higher risk in good times. / Committee in charge: Dr. Roberto Gutierrez, Chair; Dr. Roberto Gutierrez, Advisor; Dr. Diane Del Guercio, Inside Member; Dr. John Chalmers， Inside Member； Dr. Bruce Blonigen， Outside Member

Inúmeros trabalhos avaliando as exigências de lisina podem ser encontrados na literatura, mas seus resultados são heterogêneos. Revisões sistemáticas e a meta-análise permitem integrar diferentes variáveis, gerar novos resultados e obter respostas ajustadas a uma maior diversidade experimental. Objetivou-se explorar as relações da lisina digestível com as variáveis de desempenho, estabelecer a exigência e avaliar a eficiência marginal da lisina segundo a lei de rendimentos decrescentes para suínos em crescimento e terminação. Para os estudos I e II, foram compilados 36 artigos publicados entre 2002 e 2013 avaliando 2.399 suínos pesando entre 15-120 kg. Para o estudo III, foram utilizados 26 artigos que avaliaram 1.820 suínos pesando entre 20-120 kg. No estudo I, o consumo diário de lisina apresentou correlações maiores com a ingestão de energia metabolizável e proteína bruta e com as deposições de proteína e lipídios. O consumo diário de lisina apresentou melhor ajuste nas equações de variância-covariância do que o nível percentual de lisina. No estudo II, o aumento no consumo diário de lisina melhorou o ganho de peso e a deposição de proteína na fase de 70-120 kg. Nas fases de 15-30; 30-70 e 70-120 kg os níveis de lisina digestível determinados para obter as melhores respostas de ganho corresponderam ao consumo diário de 14,8; 20,2 e 18,3 g lisina/dia. Os níveis de lisina digestível determinados para obter as melhores respostas de deposição de proteína corresponderam ao consumo diário de 16,3 e 24,1 g lisina/dia nas fases 15-30 e 30-70 kg. No estudo III, observamos que a medida que o animal se aproxima ou atinge o ponto de máximo desempenho, a eficiência de uso da lisina digestível diminui segundo a lei de rendimentos decrescentes. Dietas formuladas para atender 95% da máxima resposta de ganho de peso permitem uma melhora na eficiência marginal de uso da lisina da ordem de 2,4; 2,5 e 1,5 g de ganho de peso para cada g de lisina ingerida nas faixas de peso vivo 20-50; 50-70 e 70-120 kg. Sugerimos a inclusão de variáveis como a eficiência alimentar e o ganho de peso nas análises de determinação de exigências de lisina, também a escolha de metodologias analíticas adequadas e a inclusão da lei de rendimentos decrescentes da eficiência marginal de uso da lisina nos atuais modelos de determinação de exigência para evitar a superestimação observada nas tabelas de recomendação nutricional. / Several studies evaluating the lysine requirements are avaible in the literature, but its results are heterogeneous. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis allows integrating different variables, generating new results and producing answers adjusted to experimental diversity. This objective of this study was to explore the relationship among dietary lysine and the performance variables, establishing the requirement and assessing the marginal efficiency of dietary lysine according to the law of diminishing returns for growing-finishing pigs. For studies I and II, 36 articles published from 2002 to 2013 evaluating 2399 pigs weighing between 15-120 kg were compiled. And for the study III 26 articles evaluating 1820 pigs weighing between 20-120 kg were used. In the study I, daily intake of lysine showed higher correlations with the metabolizable energy intake and crude protein, with the protein deposition and lipid deposition. The daily intake of lysine showed better adjustment in the variance-covariance equations than the dietary level of lysine. In Study II, increasing the daily intake of lysine improved the weight gain and protein deposition in the 70-120 kg phase. In 15-30; 30-70 and 70-120 kg phase the levels digestible lysine that maximized weight gain reponse corresponded to the daily intake of 14.8; 20.2 and 18.3 g lysine/day. Lysine levels that maximized protein deposition reponse corresponded to daily intake of 16.3 and 24.1 g lysine/day in the phases 15-30 and 30-70 kg. In the study III, it was observed that, as the animal approaches or reaches the maximum performance the efficiency of lysine use decreases according to the law of diminishing returns. Diets formulated to meet 95% of the maximal weight gain response permit a marginal improvement in efficiency of use of the lysine the order of 2.4; 2.5 and 1.5 grams of weight gain for each lysine grams ingested in live weight phases 20-50; 50-70 and 70-120 kg respectively. It suggest the inclusion of variables feed efficiency and weight gain in analysis for the determination of lysine requirements, also the choice of appropriate analytical methods and the inclusion of diminishing returns law of marginal efficiency the dietary lysine in current models for the determination of requirements to avoid the overestimation observed in nutritional recommendation tables.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / William F. Blankenau / This dissertation investigates two essential features of the US economy. First, it explores how news about future productivity changes business cycle fluctuations. Using the a representative agent model, it shows that implementation labor in workplace organization could be an important channel through which news about the fundamentals can realistically generate US business cycle fluctuations. Further this idea is extended using the perspective of sunspot fluctuations. In particular, the model can lead to multiple equilibria under specific parameterizations. Second, a general equilibrium model has been developed with heterogeneous agents to explain the wage polarization feature of the US labor market, particularly how the price of an important technology is connected to lifetime earnings of agents and affects their college decisions. The following summarizes the three chapters of my dissertation. The first chapter which I co-authored with Dr. Blankenau, argues that purchasing investment goods does not directly increase the productive capacity of a business. Changes in the business through the installation of capital, worker training, and workplace reorganization are often required. These changes themselves are not easily automated. Change requires workers. We build a model where investment requires a complementary labor input. This mechanism is embedded in a representative agent model with capacity utilization, adjustment costs, and separable preferences. We show that this environment can yield positive co-movement between consumption, investment, and labor hours when the economy experiences a news shock about future productivity, thus providing an additional channel through which news shocks can generate key business cycle features. The second chapter is an extension of the first chapter. I investigate the indeterminacy in a representative agent model with implementation labor and increasing returns in production. First, my analysis shows that a representative agent with implementation labor can exhibit increasing returns to scale. Then I show that self-fulfilling beliefs of agents lead to business cycle fluctuations in which multiple equilibria can arise under specific parameterizations. Specifically, implementation labor in the production of capital is the highly important, necessary condition for the self-fulling equilibrium outcome. The third chapter, which is also a joint work with Dr. Blankenau, discusses the wage polarization feature of the US labor market. We build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, showing how wage polarization can emerge when the price of computer capital falls. Consequently, we find the share of the population with a college degree decreases. Our findings are consistent with recent empirical data that show a U-shaped wage growth pattern in the US as well as a slower growth rate of college-educated workers despite the high returns of investing in education. In the model, we assume that each agent is born with a portfolio of skills. Specifically, each agent can provide manual labor, routine labor, and abstract labor and must decide how much of each to provide. An agent can increase efficiency in all types of labor by attending college. All three types of labor are valued in the labor market at an endogenously determined wage rate. Computer capital is a substitute for routine labor. As its price falls and its quantity increases, agents with a relative aptitude for routine labor no longer find it advantageous to attend college. Since routinization of tasks harms middle-income agents, the model has government policy implications for observed wage polarization.

Diploma work is based on technological, economic and legislative assesment of the problem of using bekary returns to propose alternative solution in relation to the processing technology of anaerobic fermentation. The participation of bakery returnts were laboratory simulated in automatic anaerobic fermenters called Stix. Teoretical part is focused on valid legislation. The economical assessment was evaluated by the index of the net present value. The highest production of methan was evaluated in propotion 100:0 of bakey returns and dung. Although the ideal proportion is 50:50 from economic assessment.

E-handeln har ökat på senare tid och i samband med detta har konsumenternas köpbeteende förändrats. Idag finns det många e-handelsföretag som försöker stå ut i mängden och locka till sig kunder bland annat genom att erbjuda fri frakt, fria returer och snabba leveranser. Kunderna beställer därför ofta mer varor via nätet än vad de har för avsikt att behålla vilket bidrar till ett ökat returflöde. Detta är problematiskt eftersom returer både är dåligt för miljön och kostsamt för företagen. Samtidigt vill företagen sälja så mycket som möjligt och arbeta förebyggande för att antalet returer ska minskas. Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur konsumenter resonerar kring returer under köpprocessen av kläder online i relation till hur konsumenterna uppfattar returernas miljöpåverkan. Förhoppningen är att resultatet ska ge vidare kunskap om kunders köpbeteende online vilket kan användas av e-handelsföretag inom modeindustrin för att minska antalet returer i arbetet mot en mer hållbar e-handel. Tio semistrukturerade intervjuer har genomförts med konsumenter i åldrarna 18-50 med tre olika teman som var köpbeteende online, returer online och miljöpåverkan i form av transporter, leveranser och förpackningar. Studien har utgått från en teoretisk modell av Hjort (2010) som heter Consumer Behaviour Characteristics som beskriver den köpprocess som konsumenterna går igenom vid ett onlineköp. Denna modell har sedan modifierats där miljöaspekten av returer har lagts till och modellen har därefter använts för att analysera det empiriska materialet från intervjuerna. Resultatet av intervjuerna visade på att majoriteten av respondenterna hellre handlar online än i fysisk butik och detta på grund av den smidighet som företagen erbjuder genom fri frakt och fria returer vilket också gjorde att de handlade mer och oftare. Det visade också på att det finns bristande information om produkterna för att konsumenterna ska kunna vara mer säkra på sitt köpbeslut och inte beställa mer varor än nödvändigt, samt att det fattas tydlig information om hur returerna påverkar miljön. Resultatet visade också på att många inte är medvetna om konsekvenserna för miljön eftersom detta inte är något som kommuniceras ut av företagen. / In conjunction with the growth of the online sales, the buying behaviour of the consumers has changed. Today, there are a lot of different retailers that are trying to stand out to attract customers by offering free shipping, free returns and fast deliveries. Because of this, the consumers often order more products than they intend to keep, which contributes to an increased quantity of returns. This is problematic because returns affect the environment in a negative way and are quite expensive. The companies on the other hand, want to increase sales as much as possible while simultaneously reducing the number of returns.The purpose of the study is to investigate how consumers argue about returns of clothing during the buying process of clothes purchased online in relation to how consumers perceive the environmental impact of the returns. Hopefully, the result will provide further knowledge about customers buying behaviour online and can be used by e-commerce companies in the fashion industry to reduce the number of returns and work towards a more sustainable e-commerce.Ten semi structured interviews have been conducted with consumers aged 18-50 with three different themes that were online shopping, online returns and environmental impact in terms of transport, deliveries and packaging. The study is based on a theoretical model made by Hjort (2010) called Consumer Behaviour Characteristics, which describes the purchasing process that the consumer goes through when purchasing a product online. This model has then been modified based on the results of the interviews where the environmental aspect of the returns has been added.The result of the interviews showed that the majority of the respondents rather shop online than in physical stores because of the flexibility that many companies offer due to free shipping and free returns and that they also purchased more products, more frequently because of this. The result also showed that there is a lack of necessary details about the products ordered making it difficult for the consumers to be more confident in their purchase decision and not have to order more products than necessary. There is also little or no information about how returns affect the environment. The result also showed that many consumers are not aware of the environmental impact because this is not something that is communicated by the companies. This paper is written in Swedish.

Submitted by EDER FONZAR GRANATO null (eder1962granato@gmail.com) on 2016-07-18T15:30:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE EDER FONZAR GRANATO 1962 com ficha.pdf: 2663771 bytes, checksum: 91f29e8fd5aa752f16fc4d9ab7721195 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Grisoto (grisotoana@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-07-19T20:46:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 granato_ef_dr_bot.pdf: 2663771 bytes, checksum: 91f29e8fd5aa752f16fc4d9ab7721195 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-19T20:46:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 granato_ef_dr_bot.pdf: 2663771 bytes, checksum: 91f29e8fd5aa752f16fc4d9ab7721195 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-25 / O Brasil produz anualmente 30 bilhões de litros de etanol de cana de açúcar com previsão do Ministério de Minas e Energia de atingir 36 bilhões de litros em 2024. A vinhaça é o resíduo líquido, rico em potássio e matéria orgânica que resulta da destilação do etanol, na proporção de 10 a 15 litros de vinhaça para cada litro de etanol. Disposto indevidamente, pode trazer sérios riscos para o ambiente devido ao alto potencial poluidor. Os estados de São Paulo, Paraná e Mato Grosso do Sul, possuem normas específicas sobre disposição desse resíduo, mas não atingem por completo o objetivo de controlar e mitigar os problemas, pois a disposição final da vinhaça se resume unicamente na fertirrigação sem qualquer outro tratamento. No presente trabalho, realizado no Laboratório de Biomassa do Departamento de Engenharia Rural da Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias da UNESP de Jaboticabal, analisou-se a biodigestão anaeróbia da vinhaça, caracterizando-se a produção de biogás e a redução do potencial poluidor. Para tanto, foram efetuados estudos de viabilidade técnica da biodigestão anaeróbia da vinhaça analisando os parâmetros: neutralização do pH da vinhaça, utilização do reciclo e estabilização da temperatura da vinhaça. Para os três parâmetros citados foram registrados e analisados dados referentes a: produção de biogás (m3), composição do biogás (% de CH4 e CO2) e redução do potencial poluidor da vinhaça após biodigestão anaeróbia (DQO). No que diz respeito a produção do biogás, os resultados considerados relevantes foram na correção do pH (aumento de 97,5%) e no aquecimento do afluente (aumento de 79%). Em relação a composição do biogás, obteve-se, aumento de 9% de metano redução de 3,6% de dióxido de carbono quando se aquece o afluente. Quando se utiliza reciclo a redução de DQO aumentou em 50% e o aquecimento do afluente permitiu aumentou a redução em 62%, demonstrando a viabilidade técnica do presente estudo. Para se determinar a viabilidade econômica foram efetuados estudos referentes a: Demonstração do Fluxo de Caixa, Valor Presente Liquido, Taxa Interna de Retorno e Payback Descontado. Em relação ao Valor Presente Liquido, o resultado obtido foi de R$ 2.179.331,76, maior que zero. A Taxa Interna de Retorno foi de 8%, maior que 7,5% (Taxa Atrativa Mínima). O retorno do investimento pelo cálculo do Payback Descontado será em 5,54 anos, provando assim que o projeto é viável economicamente. / The Brazil annually produces 30 billion liters of ethanol from sugar cane with the Ministry of Mines and Energy forecast to reach 36 billion liters in 2024. The stillage is the liquid waste, rich in potassium and organic matter resulting from the distillation of ethanol in the proportion of 10 to 15 liters of vinasse per liter of ethanol. Willing improperly, can pose serious risks to the environment due to the high pollution potential. The states of São Paulo, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, have specific rules on disposal of this waste, but do not reach completely in order to control and mitigate the problems because the final disposal of vinasse comes down solely in fertigation without any other treatment . In this study, conducted at the Laboratory of Biomass Department of Rural Engineering of the Faculty of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences of Jaboticabal UNESP, analyzed the anaerobic digestion of vinasse, characterizing the production of biogas and reduce the pollution potential. Therefore, technical feasibility studies of anaerobic digestion of vinasse were made by analyzing the parameters: pH neutralization of vinasse, use of recycling and stabilization of vinasse temperature. For the three mentioned parameters were recorded and analyzed data for: biogas production (m3), biogas composition (% CH4 and CO2) and reduced pollution potential of vinasse after anaerobic digestion (COD). As regards the production of biogas, the results were considered significant at pH correction (increase of 97.5%) and heating the influent (79% increase). For biogas composition was obtained, an increase of 9% methane 3.6% reduction of carbon dioxide when heated affluent. When COD reduction using recycled increased by 50% and heating affluent allowed increased the reduction by 62%, demonstrating the technical feasibility of this study. To determine the economic feasibility studies were made regarding: Cash Flow Statement, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return and Discounted Payback. Regarding the Net Present Value, the result was of R$ 2,179,331.76, greater than zero. The internal rate of return was 8%, higher than 7.5% (rate Attractive Minimum). The return on investment by calculating the Discounted Payback will be 5.54 years, thus proving that the project is economically viable.

On the 8th of November, 2016, Prime Minister Modi declared all Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes in circulation, constituting 86% of the currency, to be illegal tender for transactions. All the currency had to be deposited into bank accounts, and new notes would be issued. Amounts deposited over Rs. 250,000 (approx. USD 4000) would face tax scrutiny. The reasoning given for this was to curb corruption, terrorism financing and counterfeiting. This led to a scramble in the economy, giving rise to many dubious schemes for evading the consequences of this policy. There was a significant loss in income for people, however, they were willing to bear the short term pain, in the promise of medium to long term gain. Economists and political thinkers are divided on the merits of this matter. We tested the varied effect of demonetization on the Indian economy by examining the returns of the National Stock Exchange using the Event Study Methodology in the immediate period following demonetization. We found a statistically significant decline in consumption sectors. This was largely driven by decline in the ability to spend. Public Sector Banks (PSBs) saw huge positive abnormal returns, while the Private Banks recorded a lagged negative effect. This may be because the PSBs were riddled with NPAs and in dire need of liquidity, or because of the market’s differentiated perception of corruption within these portfolios. We also find State-Owned Companies to benefit from the announcement.