Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:33:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 KarolLBOF_DISSERT_PARCIAL.pdf: 340660 bytes, checksum: f2a188d52831a6a40d06910a31049e94 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-05 / How ecologically similar species are able to coexist has always generated great interest in the scientific community. Classical niche theory predicts that species coexistence is only possible when they segregate in at least one dimension of the ecological niche, thus leading to ecological differentiation among species. However, recent work has shown that species that are more similar in some ecological traits are the ones more prone to be able to coexist (environmental filter). The knowledge of how these forces act shaping ecological communities can reveal co-existence strategies, providing important information for management and conservation of the species. This study tested these hypotheses using a pair of coexisting species of Herpsilochmus, H. pectoralis and H. sellowi. In this study I use high resolution (50 x 50 m) ecological niche models to Identify which environmental factors best predict species occurrence. Next, I calculate the overlap in habitat use by species and build null models to test the hypothesis of spatial niche segregation. In addition, I obtain the selectivity parameters of habitat use to test whether the species H. pectoralis (larger body size) is less selective than H. sellowi (smaller body size) as stated in the literature for other species. The results reject the ecological equivalence among species, revealing that the species of Herpsilochmus explore the habitat differently, having different environmental niches. The hypothesis of environmental filter was not observed in my analysis, the observed overlap in habitat use among species was lower than expected by chance. Evidence that Herpsilochmus are spatially segregating reinforces the hypothesis of interspecific competition as the predominant force in the selection of microhabitat of the species. However, more data and experiments are necessary to state categorically that the observed pattern is a result of current or past competition / Como esp?cies similares ecologicamente s?o capazes de coexistir sempre gerou grande interesse na comunidade cient?fica. A teoria cl?ssica de nicho prev? que para que a coexist?ncia seja poss?vel as esp?cies devem segregar em alguma dimens?o do nicho ecol?gico, portanto levando a diferencia??o entre as esp?cies. No entanto, trabalhos recentes tem demonstrado que justamente esp?cies mais similares em algumas caracter?sticas ecol?gicas seriam mais capazes de coexistir (filtro ambiental). O conhecimento de como essas for?as atuam nas comunidades pode revelar estrat?gias de coexist?ncia, trazendo importantes informa??es para o manejo e conserva??o das esp?cies. Neste estudo testei essas hip?teses de coexist?ncia utilizando o par de esp?cies Herpsilochmus pectoralis e H. sellowi. Para isso utilizei modelos de nicho ecol?gico em alta resolu??o (50 x50 m).Identifiquei quais os fatores ambientais estudados melhor predizem a ocorr?ncia das esp?cies. Em seguida, calculei a sobreposi??o no uso de h?bitat pelas esp?cies e constru? modelos nulos para testar a hip?tese de segrega??o de nicho espacial. Ainda, calculei par?metros de seletividade do uso do h?bitat para testar se a esp?cie H. pectoralis (esp?cie de maior tamanho de corpo) ? menos seletiva que o H. sellowi (esp?cie de menor tamanho de corpo) como previsto na literatura para outras esp?cies.Os resultados rejeitam a equival?ncia ecol?gica entre as esp?cies, revelando que as esp?cies de Herpsilochmus exploram o habitat de forma diferenciada, possuindo nichos ambientais distintos. A hip?tese de filtro ambiental n?o foi evidenciada em nossas an?lises, sendo a sobreposi??o no uso do h?bitat observada entre as esp?cies menor do que o esperado ao acaso. Evid?ncias de que os Herpsilochmus est?o segregando espacialmente refor?a a hip?tese da competi??o interespec?fica como for?a predominante na sele??o de microh?bitat das esp?cies. No entanto, para afirmar categoricamente que o padr?o observado ? efeito de uma competi??o atual ou passada experimentos futuros s?o sugeridos

Climate change, land use change and invasive species are transforming global biodiversity at multiple scales. Projections are for threats to biodiversity from these global changes to continue into the future, with varied and discernible distribution changes for many species. Concomitantly, these global changes will interact with each other to further exacerbate the problem, as exemplified in this study. In New Zealand, climate change is expected to affect landscapes, fragmented and disturbed by land use change, further increasing the potential invasibility of these landscapes for a suite of existing and emerging invasive species. This thesis is concerned with the combined effects of climate and land use changes on the spatial distribution of the sub-tropical invasive plant, Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.). The contribution of this thesis is to undertake an integrated assessment of the distribution change for this species in New Zealand. On the basis that climatic variables affect species distribution at larger scales, while land use, habitat, disturbance and dispersal mechanisms affect distribution at smaller scales, two separate analyses were undertaken. At the national scale BioCLIM and the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were implemented using the variables: minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A, and annual water deficit (November-February). At the landscape scale, only ENFA was implemented, using the variables: MTminJ-A, ECOSAT riparian classes (habitat) and proximity to roads, urban areas and streams (disturbance and dispersal sources). Three scenarios of climate change (CCSR B1-Low, CSIRO9 A1B-Mid and HadCM A1FI-High) and two scenarios of land use change (SmartGrowth and Buildout) were developed to the year 2050, using the CLIMPACTS Open Framework Modelling System and Geographic Information Systems, GIS, techniques respectively. The baseline species distribution model was extrapolated in ENFA, using the 2050 scenarios. Changes to potential threat from this species to protected areas at the landscape level were assessed spatially at the landscape level. This approach and its results are novel for this species. At the national scale the results for the modelling show that climate change will increase the potential habitat suitability of Tradescantia under all combined scenarios of CCSR, CSIRO9 and HadCM for mean minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A and Annual Water Deficit, AWD. At the case study landscape, in the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga also the modelling results showed that climate change and land use changes will increase the suitability for Tradescantia by 2050. The 'core' or highest suitability areas increase under all future scenarios. At the national level core suitability increased by about 13% for the CCSR:B1-Low and CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and 22% for HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenario on the North Island. On the South Island, core areas increased by a much lower margin - 1.4%, 2.3% and 2.9% for CCSR:B1-Low, CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenarios respectively. At the landscape level core areas increased by 5%, 8% and 21% for the CCSR:B1-Low+SmartGrowth, Darlam:A1b-Mid+SmartGrwoth and HadCM:A1FI-High+Build-out combined scenarios, respectively. This is true also for the Protected areas within the case study landscape, and indicate that the increasing if Tradescantia is able to track both climate and land use change through its dispersal and migration within the landscape 9 primarily in the inland and upland direction), then is will pose a greater risk to native habitats than at present. Integrated assessments and the outputs they produce are essential to exploring anticipated changes (through scenario-building) and in understanding the change spatial context and magnitude of projected changes from the combined effects of climate and land use changes into the future and need to be integrated into biodiversity-biosecurity management at multiple scales.

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The Connecticut River watershed is experiencing a rapid invasion of aggressive non-native plant species, which threaten watershed function and structure. Volunteer-based monitoring programs such as the University of Massachusetts’ OutSmart Invasives Species Project, Early Detection Distribution Mapping System (EDDMapS) and the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England (IPANE) have gathered valuable invasive plant data. These programs provide a unique opportunity for researchers to model invasive plant species utilizing citizen-sourced data. This study took advantage of these large data sources to model invasive plant distribution and to determine environmental and biophysical predictors that are most influential in dispersion, and to identify a suitable presence-only model for use by conservation biologists and land managers at varying spatial scales. This research focused on the invasive plant species of high interest - Japanese stiltgrass (Mircostegium vimineum). This was identified as a threat by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuge biologists and refuge managers, but for which no mutli-scale practical and systematic approach for detection, has yet been developed. Environmental and biophysical variables include factors directly affecting species physiology and locality such as annual temperatures, growing degree days, soil pH, available water supply, elevation, closeness to hydrology and roads, and NDVI. Spatial scales selected for this study include New England (regional), the Connecticut River watershed (watershed), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife, Silvio O. Conte National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Salmon River Division (local). At each spatial scale, three software programs were implemented: maximum entropy habitat model by means of the MaxEnt software, ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) using Openmodeller software, and a generalized linear model (GLM) employed in the statistical software R. Results suggest that each modeling algorithm performance varies among spatial scales. The best fit modeling software designated for each scale will be useful for refuge biologists and managers in determining where to allocate resources and what areas are prone to invasion. Utilizing the regional scale results, managers will understand what areas on a broad-scale are at risk of M. vimineum invasion under current climatic variables. The watershed-scale results will be practical for protecting areas designated as most critical for ensuring the persistence of rare and endangered species and their habitats. Furthermore, the local-scale, or fine-scale, analysis will be directly useful for on-the-ground conservation efforts. Managers and biologists can use results to direct resources to areas where M. vimineum is most likely to occur to effectively improve early detection rapid response (EDRR).