Nonlinear dynamical systems theory has inspired a new set of useful tools to be applied in climate studies. In this work we presented specific examples where information has been gained by the application of methods from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. The main goal is to understand the relative importance of stochastic forcing versus deterministic coupling within the context of Coupled General Circulation Models. This work address this important subject by approaching this goal through the development of a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity that we assert contain the essential dynamics of ENSO. We examined the effect of noise in a low order model and found that it is not restricted to blurring the attractor trajectories in phase space, but includes important changes in the dynamics of the system. The main results indicate that the presence of noise in a nonlinear system has two different effects. The presence of noise acts to increase the maximum Lyapunov exponent and can result in noise induced chaos if the system was originally stable. However, the same arguments are not valid if the original system is already in the chaotic regime, where the noise inclusion acts to decrease the maximum Lyapunov exponent, therefore increasing the system stability. The system of interest includes coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions and here we mimic this interaction by coupling two low order models with very different dominant time scales. These subsystems interact in a complex, nonlinear way and the behavior of the whole system cannot be explained by a linear summation of dynamics of the system parts. We used information theory concepts to detect the influence of the slow system dynamics in synchronizing the fast system in coupled models. We introduced a fast-slow coupled system, where both the slowness of the ocean model and the intensity of the boundary forcing anomalies contribute to the asymmetry and phase locking of both subsystems. The mechanisms controlling the fast modelspread were uncovered revealing uncertainty dynamics depending on the location of ensemble members in the model’s phase space. As an intermediate step between low order models and CGCMs we study the effect of noise on an intermediate complexity model. The addition of gaussian noise to the Zebiak-Cane model in order to understand the effects of noise on its attractor led to a way of estimating the noise level based on the effects of noise on the correlation dimension curves. We investigate the intrinsic predictability of the coupled models used here, and the different time scales associated with fast and slow modes were detected using the Finite Size Lyapunov Exponents. We found new estimates for the prediction horizon of ENSO for the Zebiak-Cane model as well as for the NCAR CCSM3 model and observations. The whole analysis of observations and CCSM3 was possible after applying noise reduction techniques. We also improved our understanding of three different noise reduction techniques by comparing the Local Projective Noise Reduction, the Interactive Ensemble strategy, and a Random Interactive Ensemble applied to CCSM3. The main difference between these two noise reduction techniques is when the process is applied. The Local Projective Noise Reduction can be applied to both model and observations, and it is done a posteriori in phase space, therefore the trajectories to be adjusted already posses the physical mechanisms embedded in them. The Interactive Ensemble approach can only be applied to model simulations and has shown to be a very useful technique for noise reduction since its done a priori while the system evolves instead of a posteriori, besides the fact that it allows to retrieve the spatial distribution of the noise level in physical space.

Water managers throughout the world are challenged with managing scarce resources and therefore rely heavily on forecasts to allocate and meet various water demands. The need for improved streamflow and snowpack forecast models is of the utmost importance. In this research, the use of oceanic and atmospheric variables as predictors was investigated to improve the long lead-time (three to nine months) forecast of streamflow and snowpack. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was used to identify a region of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and a region of 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500mb) that were teleconnected with streamflow and snowpack. The resulting Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and Z500mb regions were used to create indices that were then used as predictors in a non-parametric forecasting model. The majority of forecasts resulted in positive statistical skill, which indicated an improvement of the forecast over the climatology or no-skill forecast. The results indicated that derived indices from SSTs were better suited for long lead-time (six to nine month) forecasts of streamflow and snowpack while the indices derived from Z500mb improved short lead-time (3 month) forecasts. In all, the results of the forecast model indicated that incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climatic variability in forecast models can lead to improved forecasts for both streamflow and snowpack.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is well known for its multiple bands with large meridional property gradients in the upper waters, each associated with a deep-reaching current core. A revised nineteen-year time series (1992?2011) of altimeter data from the CNES/CLS AVISO is analyzed to identify and trace the spatial distribution of ACC fronts. Specific contours of sea surface height (SSH) are selected within narrow continuous bands of relative maxima SSH slope in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean sector, where they closely follow the distribution of ACC fronts derived from inspection of concurrent high-resolution profile data at hydrographic stations. When applied to the full circumpolar belt, the frontal distribution derived from these new altimeter-based indicators also agrees well with the traces of current jets and in-situ dynamic height fields calculated from concurrent Argo profile data. The temporal variability of ACC fronts is analyzed in relation to dominant modes of atmospheric forcing variability in the Southern Ocean. All three ACC fronts have experienced large seasonal to decadal variability throughout the satellite altimetry era. The general seasonal tendency for each of these jets, with respect to long-term mean positions, is to be located farther to the south during the austral summer and to north in the winter. Circumpolar-mean annual frontal locations show a consistent linear trend of southward migration. However, the estimated decadal variability of the frontal distributions is highly localized, and due to selective response mechanisms to atmospheric variability. A persistent poleward drift of ACC fronts is observed in the Indian sector consistent with increasing sea surface temperature trends. In contrast, a vacillation in the meridional location of ACC fronts is observed in the Pacific sector in association to minor sea surface cooling trends. Therefore, unlike in the Indian sector, the regional Pacific Ocean response is significantly sensitive to dominant atmospheric forcing indices. Mesoscale eddies derived from instabilities at strong current cores are successfully identified with specific SSH gradient criteria. The new estimates of rings population in the Southern Ocean are tightly linked to interannual to decadal atmospheric variability. Increased number of mesoscale eddies correlate with positive SAM forcing about two years earlier, or negative ENSO forcing two to three months earlier. These cross-correlations might explain a prominent peak in rings abundance estimated during 2000 and 2001, and the short-lived maximum that appeared in 2010. There are no persistent trends in the estimated sea surface slope across Drake Passage, and therefore neither in the transport of the ACC. High cross-correlation between the abundance of mesoscale eddies and atmospheric forcing suggests that the overall ACC system is in an eddy-saturated state. However, Drake Passage positive sea level slope anomalies were two-year lagged with negative SAM forcing and with positive ENSO events. These regional responses are characteristic of eastward-propagating signals from a buoyancy-dominated Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean.

Observations of Antarctic sea ice thickness are sporadic in space and time, hindering knowledge of its variability. A proxy based on stage of development data from the National Ice Center (NIC) weekly operational charts is used to create a high-resolution time series of sea ice concentration, thickness and volume for 2000-2009. Record-length mean thickness and volume of Antarctic sea ice are 66.7 cm and 7.7 x10^3 km^3. The mean growth and decay seasons in the Southern Ocean and in the Ross sector are 210 days and 155 days, but at least at least one week shorter (growth) and longer (decay) in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector. Over 90% of the Antarctic continental shelf is covered with sea ice for 3-5 months, and for 2 to 4 months longer periods in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen and Ross sectors. Yearly mean sea ice area (extent) in the Southern Ocean increased at a rate of 0.71 x 10^6 km^2/decade (0.70 x 10^6 km^2/decade), equivalent to a 7.7 %/decade (6.3 %/decade) rise. A comparable trend of 9.1 %/decade (8.5 %/decade) is estimated in the Ross sector, at 0.21 x 10^6 km2/decade (0.23 x 10^6 km2/decade). The opposite trend is found in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector: a -0.15 x 10^6 km^2/decade (-0.17 x 10^6 km^2/decade) decline, or -14.6 %/decade (-13.4 %/decade). The estimated annual increase of Antarctic sea ice thickness is 22.6 cm/decade (49.2 %/decade) and of volume is 3.78 x 10^3 km^3/decade (68.3 %/decade). The Ross sector showed similar trends for thickness, at 23.8 cm/decade (47.0 %/decade), and volume, at 1.11 x 10^3 km^3/decade (75.8 %/decade). Thickness has increased in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen sector, 20.7 cm/decade (44.8 %/decade), but with a less pronounced volume rise of 0.17 x10^3 km^3/decade (26.0 %/decade). Monthly sea ice thickness anomalies show a weak response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. A strong positive response is observed in 2008 when a negative a negative ENSO index compounded to a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index. Therefore the estimated increase of sea ice thickness in the Southern Ocean could be attributed to the prevailing atmospheric conditions with a positive SAM phase over the past decade.

Syftet med detta arbete som utförts på Kvarnsvedens pappersbruk i Borlänge har varit att framställa ett operatörsverktyg. Ett operatörsverktyg som ska åskådliggöra processens rörliga kostnader, som kan benämnas en produktkalkyl för stunden. Verktyget skall senare möjliggöra förbättrade utsikter för kontroll, styrning och uppföljning av rörliga kostnader inom företaget samt öka möjligheterna till att minska de rörliga kostnaderna som är kopplade till processen. Massafabriken på Kvarnsvedens pappersbruk och pappersmaskin 11 har utgjort arbetets grundläggande måltavlor för operatörsverktyget. Arbetet innefattade kartläggning och granskning av pappersprocessen för att skapa en så heltäckande bild av uppdragsbeskrivningen som möjligt. När processen studerats och processflöden kartlagts mer ingående påbörjades utvecklandet av operatörsverktyget. Vidare utfördes en litteraturundersökning för att urskilja potentiella handlingsalternativ vid utformningen av operatörsverktyget samt för en ökad förståelse för verksamheten och ämnesområdet. I dagsläget saknas direkt återkoppling, i realtid, för den kontinuerliga utvecklingen av de rörliga kostnaderna eftersom nuvarande uppföljning är baserad på månadsrapporter. Operatörsverktyget som arbetet utmynnade i kommer med hög sannolikhet vara av betydelse för utvecklingen av verksamheten på företaget. Operatörsverktyget kommer även att understödja både styrningen och kontrollen av processens rörliga kostnader. Förhoppningen är att verktyget skall fungera som ett hjälpmedel i arbetet med att optimera arbetet och processen. Några av de fördelar som operatörsverktyget förväntas ge är bland annat att operativa prestationer omedelbart kan kopplas till företagets resultat, ett snabbt synliggörande av exempelvis resultat vilket öppnar för faktabaserad beslutsstrategi samt att viktig information inte behöver gå förlorad. Operatörsverktyget kan framöver anpassas och utnyttjas på fler av verksamhetens pappersmaskiner.

Teleconnections between ENSO events and growing-season precipitation variations on the Canadian Prairies are examined. Correlation and composite analyses indicate that between 1948 and 1991, El Nino events were associated with more frequent extended dry spells. Conversely, La Nina events coincided with fewer extended dry spells. Both relationships occurred during the third growing season following the onset of the ENSO events (i.e. approximately a 10-season or 30-month lag). A series of atmosphere - ocean teleconnections over the Pacific Ocean including Pacific North America (PNA) circulation patterns, North Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies and upper-atmospheric circulation anomalies were found to result in growing-season precipitation variations over the Canadian Prairies. Results of this analysis are incorporated into a conceptual model which may form the basis of a long-range forecasting technique of growing-season precipitation variations on the Canadian Prairies.

A simple correlation analysis was used to investigate the linear relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and monthly flow of Ganges and Brahmaputra at the borders of Bangladesh and India using approximately 50 years of river discharge data. Strong correlations were found between the equatorial Pacific SST and boreal summer Ganges discharge from three-month lag to two-month lead times. The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains Ganges flow variance exceeding 0.95 significance level using both the Nino 3.4 SST correlation and the composites made for El Nio (La Nina) periods. The May SST of the southwest Pacific Ocean to the east of Australia continent has a strong correlation (>0.6) with early summer Ganges discharges. Using a lag correlation analysis of Ganges discharge and SST, we found a steady and continuous development in the Nino 3.4 SST relationship, and a strong correlation with the southwest Pacific SST which is most pronounced three-four months prior to the onset of Asian summer monsoon. These relationships mean that at least 25% of the interannual summer Ganges River discharge variability can be explained by antecedent equatorial and southwest Pacific SST. It provides a possible statistical method for linear forecasting two or three months in advance. The Brahmaputra River discharge, on the other hand, shows weak relationships with tropical SST variability except for the Bay of Bengal and the higher northern latitudes of the Pacific.

The purpose of this study was to discuss the CO2 variation in and around the South China Sea (SCS), the largest marginal sea in the world. The SCS and Sulu Sea (SS) in November and December respectively, were a small CO2 source to the atmosphere. The West Philippine Sea (WPS) was a large CO2 source to the atmosphere in September. Due to strong upwelling and mixing in the SCS, the excess CO2 penetrated only to approximately 1000m compared to 1200m in the WPS. Because the SCS subsurface water flows to the SS through the 420 m-deep Mindoro Strait, the excess CO2 in the SS was found throughout the entire water column. According to NOAA, 2002 was a weak-to-moderate strength ENSO year and the second warmest since 1986. The Taiwan Strait is the sole passage which connects the East and South China Seas, but the CO2 variation in the Taiwan Strait is unclear during the ENSO year. We heady discuss the relation between the ENSO and CO2 variation in the Taiwan Strait. During the ENSO year, the Penghu Channel mixed in more Kuroshio water but the upwelling strength weakened. During an ENSO event, the southwest monsoon and surface circulation are weaker than normal, hence there is less SCS water flowing to the Penghu Channel. Primary productivity in the non-ENSO year (2001) was high so the fCO2 was low in the upwelling area in the Penghu Channel. The £G fCO2(sea-air) was about 15µatm and 20µatm in the non-ENSO year and the ENSO year, respectively. The southern Taiwan Strait was a source of CO2 in summer. The hydrology in the northern Taiwan Strait in summer was comprised mainly of two different water masses. A salinity front was found at between 25.67oN, 121.24oE and 25.87oN, 120.95oE in the non-ENSO year and at between 25.67oN, 121.24oE and 25.77oN, 121.08oE in the ENSO year. There was coastal upwelling in the western Taiwan Strait in the ENSO year. In the ENSO year, the southward flowing China Coastal Current in winter (January to March) was weaker than normal, which led to a higher percentage of northward flowing water mass in summer. As a result, the summer time salinity in the surface layer became higher so the vertical density gradient became lower than a normal year. East of the front was the Kuroshio and west of the front was the water mass that flew through the Taiwan Strait. The Kuroshio is high in temperature and salinity so the fCO2 to the east of the front was higher than found west of the front in the non-ENSO year. In the ENSO year, owing to the coastal upwelling, the fCO2 near the Chinese coast was higher than east of the front. The northern Taiwan Strait had a £G fCO2(sea-air) of about 21µatm and 16µatm in the non-ENSO and the ENSO years, respectively, and it was still a source of CO2 in summer.

Accurate forecasts of future regional temperature and rainfall patterns in many regions largely depend on characterizing anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate. However, strong interannual to decadal-scale tropical Pacific climate variability, combined with sparse spatial and temporal coverage of instrumental climate datasets in this region, have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the tropical Pacific. In this dissertation, I present sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records that span over the 20th century using living corals from several islands in the central tropical Pacific. I reconstruct the SST proxy records via coral Sr/Ca, that are combined with coral oxygen isotopic (d18O) records to quantify changes in seawater d18O (hereafter d18Osw) as a proxy for salinity. Chapter 2 investigates the spatial and temporal character of SST and d18Osw-based salinity trends in the central tropical Pacific from 1972-1998, as revealed by corals from Palmyra (6ºN, 162ºW), Fanning (4ºN, 159ºW) and Christmas (2ºN, 157ºW) Islands. The late 20th century SST proxy records exhibit warming trends that are larger towards the equator, in line with a weakening of equatorial Pacific upwelling over this period. Freshening trends revealed by the salinity proxy records are larger at those sites most affected by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), suggesting a strengthening and/or an equatorward shift of the ITCZ. Taken together, the late 20th century SST and salinity proxy records document warming and freshening trends that are consistent with a trend towards a weakened tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient under continued anthropogenic forcing. Chapter 3 characterizes the signatures of natural and anthropogenic variability in central tropical Pacific SST and d18Osw-based salinity over the course of 20th century using century-long coral proxy records from Palmyra. On interannual timescales, the SST proxy record from Palmyra tracks El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The salinity proxy record tracks eastern Pacific-centered ENSO events but is poorly correlated to central Pacific-centered ENSO events - the result of profound differences in precipitation and ocean advection that occur during the two types of ENSO. On decadal timescales, the coral SST proxy record is significantly correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), suggesting that strong dynamical links exist between the central tropical Pacific and the North Pacific. The salinity proxy record is significantly correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but poorly correlated to the NPGO, suggesting that, as was the case with ENSO, these two modes of Pacific decadal climate variability have unique impacts on equatorial precipitation and ocean advection. However, the most striking feature of the salinity proxy record is a prominent late 20th century freshening trend that is likely related to anthropogenic climate change. Taken together, the coral data provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends, and when used in combination with model simulations of 21st century climate, can be used to improve projections of regional climate in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates global interannual climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic climate change hinders understanding of natural ENSO variability. Model predictions of the response of future ENSO variability to anthropogenic forcing are highly uncertain. A better understanding of how ENSO operates during different mean climate states may improve predictions of its future behavior. This study develops a technique to quantify the response of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and salinity to ENSO variations. This analysis defines expected regional relationships between ENSO forcing and the tropical Pacific climate response. For example, the western tropical Pacific records El Niño events with greater skill than La Niña events; whereas the oceans near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) preferentially record La Niña events. This baseline understanding of regional skill calibrates interpretations of both modern and pre-instrumental coral geochemical climate proxy records. A suite of monthly resolved 18O variations in a fossil corals (Porites spp.) from the tropical western Pacific (Papua New Guinea) and the SPCZ (Vanuatu) are used to develop case studies of ENSO variability under external forcing conditions that differ from the modern climate. A record from Misima, Papua New Guinea (1411-1644 CE) spans a period of reduced solar forcing that coincides with the initiation of the Little Ice Age. This record indicates that the surface ocean in this region experienced a small change in hydrologic balance with no change in temperature, extended periods of quiescence in El Niño activity, reduced mean El Niño event amplitudes, and fewer large amplitude El Niño events relative to signals captured in regional modern records. Several multidecadal (~30-50 year) coral records from Tasmaloum, Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1300 CE), a period of increased solar forcing, depict ENSO variability that is generally lower than modern times. However, these records often cannot be distinguished from 20th century ENSO variability due to ENSO variability uncertainty associated with record lengths. Neither record can be tied to concurrent changes in solar or volcanic forcing, calling into question the paradigm of ENSO variability being predominantly mediated by external forcing changes on multidecadal time scales. / text