Recent scientific investigations of sub-millennial paleoceanographic variability have attempted to use the population statistics of single planktic foraminiferal δ18O in an attempt to characterize the variability of high-frequency signals such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, this approach is complicated by the relatively short lifespan of individual foraminifera (~2-4 weeks) compared to the time represented by a sediment sample of a marine core (decades to millennia). The resolving ability of individual foraminiferal analyses (IFA) is investigated through simulations on an idealized virtual sediment sample. We focus on ENSO-related sea-surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean (Niño3.4 region). We constrain uncertainties on the range and standard deviation associated with the IFA technique using a bootstrap Monte Carlo approach. Sensitivity to changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency and the influence of the seasonal cycle on IFA are investigated through the construction of synthetic time series containing different characteristics of variability. We find that the standard deviation and range of the population of individual foraminiferal δ18O may be used to detect ENSO amplitude changes at particular thresholds (though the uncertainty in range is much larger than in standard deviation); however, it is highly improbable that IFA can resolve changes in ENSO frequency. We also determine that the main driver of the IFA signal is ENSO amplitude as opposed to changes in the seasonal cycle although this is specific to Niño3.4 where the SST response to ENSO is maximal. Our results suggest that rigorous uncertainty analysis is crucial to the proper interpretation of IFA data and should become a standard in individual foraminiferal studies. / text

Anecdotal evidence suggests that increased numbers of waterfowl are remaining at northern latitudes throughout winter in the Mississippi Flyway. A calculated weather severity index (WSI), based on temperature and snow data, determined that local mallard abundance decreases when a WSI of 8 is reached. In mapping the WSI 8 line, mallard movement can be estimated. A fifty year trend analysis of the climatic factors driving duck migration for various locations within the Mississippi Flyway was used to determine whether climatic shifts have occurred, finding that although there are sinusoidal temperature trends throughout those years, the past decade has a longer and overall warmer trend. In examining the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation, it was found that in La Niña there is a more severe WSI, and El Niño correlates with a less severe WSI. A neutral Oceanic Niño Index caused a very high or very low WSI (was inconclusive).

The ocean reanalysis Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 2.2.4 is used to explore the changes in upwelling from normal conditions to either El Nino or La Nina conditions. Physical and thermodynamic variables from the reanalysis are used to explore the structure and behavior of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results of this analysis show that sea surface temperature (SST), entrainment velocity, wind stress, mixed layer depth, wind curl, and heat content anomalies are in general agreement with ENSO theory. Interestingly, the distribution of upwelling based on the entrainment velocity is very patchy, which led us to explore zonal and meridional sections of vertical velocity. We used three methods to compute changes in upwelling during ENSO events. The first method computes upwelling within the areas of SST anomalies during ENSO events. During El Nino events upwelling shows prominent decadal variability, while during La Nina the decadal variability is weaker. A new upwelling index is used for the second method, and upwelling is computed in the areas of strong upwelling anomalies. The variability of upwelling is higher in periods of reduced upwelling than in periods of strong upwelling. Despite the fact that the new index is computed independently, it agrees in the timing of the index used to define ENSO events for this research. The first and second methods show that the amplitude of SST anomalies and upwelling anomalies do not have a direct relationship, suggesting that upwelling does not explain all of the variance in SST. The last method used is to compute changes in upwelling in the Nino 1+2 region during ENSO events. In the east Pacific there is almost no correlation between upwelling and SST anomalies during ENSO, but this might be attributed to the fact that the Nino 1+2 region is a relatively small region compared to the Nino 3.4 region that is used to define ENSO events. In general, the time series of SST and upwelling anomalies agree well just in the cases when ENSO events are prominently in the eastern Pacific. A comparison between yearly fisheries data from Ecuador and Peru and monthly data of SST anomalies during ENSO years is presented showing that during El Nino events the fish catch decreases and during La Nina events the fish catch increases. We infer that the increase or decrease in fish catch is associated to changes in fish populations, and that these changes are mainly due to availability of nutrients and changes in temperature during ENSO events.

This study aims for knowledge about the most important climate features that affect the temperature and precipitation in the continental area of Central America. Systems such as The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ), The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) components are major contributors to regional climate that strongly interact with the topographical features dividing the Pacific and Caribbean slopes of Central America. Daily data within a 35 year long (1981-2015) time-series of precipitation and temperature for 9 different meteorological stations along both slopes have been investigated to identify their relationship with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Missing data were filled in using rellenaf, a routine function developed at the Center for Geophysical Research of the University of Costa Rica. The function estimates data values with principal components and autoregressive methods. Data show that the Pacific slope is mainly characterized by a remarkable contrast between the dry season and the rainy season. The seasonal variations in precipitation are less important for the Caribbean slope. The annual cycle of temperature (for all of the stations) has small differences in amplitude and is rather stable throughout the year, except at the northernmost stations, Belize and Puerto Barrios, where relatively low temperatures dominate the winter months due to cold air intrusions. The low frequency atmospheric mode ENSO, impacts the regional climate and interacts with the earlier mentioned CLLJ, ITCZ and WHWP. Strong ENSO episodes of El Niño and La Niña were compared with anomalies in temperature, precipitation and winds at 925 hPa (mainly focusing on CLLJ). A contribution of negative (positive) anomalies in precipitation was observed during El Niño (La Niña) events for the Pacific slope. This relationship was not present for the Caribbean slope. No connection between the temperature and ENSO could be revealed. It was also shown that CLLJ is stronger (weaker) in February for La Niña (El Niño) and stronger (weaker) in July for El Niño (La Niña) events. / I syftet att utöka individuell kunskap om de viktigaste klimatsystemen som påverkar temperatur och nederbörd över den tropiska kontinenten Centralamerika, gjordes en studie. Komponenter såsom den karibiska lågaltituds-jeten (CLLJ The Caribbean Low Level Jet), den intertropiska konvergenszonen (ITCZ The Intertropical Convergence Zone) och västra halvklotets varmvattenspool (WHWP The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool) är huvudsakliga system som påverkar det regionala klimatet och dessa interagerar med topografin. I sin tur delar den upp Centralamerika i Stilla havssidan samt Karibiska sidan, två skiljda regioner ur ett meteorologiskt perspektiv. Dygnsdata, för temperatur och nederbörd inom en tidsperiod av 35 år (1981-2015) för 9 olika meteorologiska stationer, har undersökts för att identifiera mönster kopplat till den södra El Niño-oscillationen (ENSO The El Niño Southern Oscillation). Avsaknad data beräknades med rutinfunktionen rellenaf, som har utvecklats av universitetet i Costa Rica - Centret för geofysisk forskning. Funktionen estimerar datavärden utifrån principiella komponenter -och autoregressiv metod. Från den kompletta datan kunde det identifieras att Stilla havssidan är huvudsakligen kännetecknat av en torrperiod och en regnperiod, medan säsongsvariationerna i nederbörd för Karibiska sidan är mindre. Den årliga temperaturcykeln för hela regionen erhåller små skillnader i amplitud, med andra ord är temperaturen mer eller mindre konstant genom årets gång. Med undantag för de mer nordliga stationerna Belize och Puerto Barrios där lägre temperaturer förekommer under norra halvklotets vintermånader som är orsakat av kallfronter. ENSO är ett lågfrekvent atmosfäriskt system som har påverkan på det regionala klimatet genom att interagera med de tidigare nämna CLLJ, ITCZ and WHWP. De starka faserna El Niño och La Niña observerades och jämfördes med anomalier för temperatur, nederbörd och vindfält på 925 hPa nivå (huvudsakligen fokus på CLLJ). En majoritet av negativa (positiva) anomalier för nederbörd kunde observeras under El Niño (La Niña) fenomen för Stilla havssidan. Dock fanns inte denna relation för den Karibiska sidan. Det fanns heller ingen koppling mellan temperatur och ENSO. Det kunde även ses att CLLJ är starkare (svagare) i februari för la niña (el niño) och starkare (svagare) i juli för el niño (la niña).

Teleconnections between ENSO events and growing-season precipitation variations on the Canadian Prairies are examined. Correlation and composite analyses indicate that between 1948 and 1991, El Nino events were associated with more frequent extended dry spells. Conversely, La Nina events coincided with fewer extended dry spells. Both relationships occurred during the third growing season following the onset of the ENSO events (i.e. approximately a 10-season or 30-month lag). A series of atmosphere - ocean teleconnections over the Pacific Ocean including Pacific North America (PNA) circulation patterns, North Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies and upper-atmospheric circulation anomalies were found to result in growing-season precipitation variations over the Canadian Prairies. Results of this analysis are incorporated into a conceptual model which may form the basis of a long-range forecasting technique of growing-season precipitation variations on the Canadian Prairies.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates global interannual climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic climate change hinders understanding of natural ENSO variability. Model predictions of the response of future ENSO variability to anthropogenic forcing are highly uncertain. A better understanding of how ENSO operates during different mean climate states may improve predictions of its future behavior. This study develops a technique to quantify the response of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and salinity to ENSO variations. This analysis defines expected regional relationships between ENSO forcing and the tropical Pacific climate response. For example, the western tropical Pacific records El Niño events with greater skill than La Niña events; whereas the oceans near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) preferentially record La Niña events. This baseline understanding of regional skill calibrates interpretations of both modern and pre-instrumental coral geochemical climate proxy records. A suite of monthly resolved 18O variations in a fossil corals (Porites spp.) from the tropical western Pacific (Papua New Guinea) and the SPCZ (Vanuatu) are used to develop case studies of ENSO variability under external forcing conditions that differ from the modern climate. A record from Misima, Papua New Guinea (1411-1644 CE) spans a period of reduced solar forcing that coincides with the initiation of the Little Ice Age. This record indicates that the surface ocean in this region experienced a small change in hydrologic balance with no change in temperature, extended periods of quiescence in El Niño activity, reduced mean El Niño event amplitudes, and fewer large amplitude El Niño events relative to signals captured in regional modern records. Several multidecadal (~30-50 year) coral records from Tasmaloum, Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1300 CE), a period of increased solar forcing, depict ENSO variability that is generally lower than modern times. However, these records often cannot be distinguished from 20th century ENSO variability due to ENSO variability uncertainty associated with record lengths. Neither record can be tied to concurrent changes in solar or volcanic forcing, calling into question the paradigm of ENSO variability being predominantly mediated by external forcing changes on multidecadal time scales. / text

Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galapagos, provide a record of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Nino events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Nina events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene (similar to 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last similar to 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galapagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Nino and La Nina events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until similar to 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, +/- similar to 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Nino events dominated in the most recent century. Plain Language Summary Sediments accumulating at the bottom of Bainbridge Crater Lake have provided a record of Galapagos climate and the frequency of El Nino events over the past similar to 6000 years. Motivated by the importance of this lake for our understanding of climate in the tropical Pacific Ocean, we have been monitoring the link between climate, lake conditions, and the physical and chemical properties of the lake sediments since 2009. Based on this long-term monitoring, we find that the Bainbridge sediment record preserves both El Nino and La Nina events. This makes Bainbridge a particularly valuable archive of past climate, as most sediment-based records typically preserve only one or the other key phase of tropical Pacific climate.

Cette thèse analyse (i) la variabilité pluviométrique contemporaine en Nouvelle-Calédonie et ses téléconnexions avec les températures de surface océanique (TSO) du Pacifique tropical et (ii) l'impact des anomalies atmosphériques sur l'activité des incendies estimés par satellites. L'objectif est de construire un modèle permettant de prévoir l'intensité de la saison des feux entre septembre et décembre (SOND). Le croisement de trois bases de données de feux détectés par satellites avec le réseau des stations météorologiques montre de forts déficits pluviométriques jusqu'à trois mois avant les feux. Ces déficits pluviométriques sont partiellement liés aux phases chaudes du phénomène El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et plus particulièrement à celles durant lesquelles les anomalies thermiques se situent à proximité de la ligne de changement de date équatoriale lors du printemps austral. Ces anomalies renforcent la circulation moyenne de Hadley et la subsidence au niveau des latitudes néo-calédoniennes. La téléconnexion entre les TSO du Pacifique central et les précipitations du Pacifique SW s'affaiblit à partir du mois de décembre au moment où l'ENSO atteint, paradoxalement, son intensité maximale. Cette modulation saisonnière est le produit d'une interaction entre (i) le cycle saisonnier des TSO brutes dans le Pacifique central, (ii) le cycle de vie des anomalies thermiques des épisodes chauds et (iii) l'intensité du gradient zonal des TSO le long de l'équateur. Une analyse en ondelettes montre que les pluies néo-calédoniennes sont également sensibles à des modes de variations plus lents (> 8 ans) du Pacifique central entre septembre et novembre. / This PhD analyses (i) New Caledonian rainfall variability and its relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific ocean and (ii) the impacts of atmospheric variability on fire activity. Our main goal is to build an empirical statistical scheme for predicting the September to December fires. We examined the relationships between fires detected by ATSR and MODIS sensors and local-scale atmospheric conditions. While the signal in maximum temperature is weak and not robust among the fire records, the local-scale anomalies of rainfall are always clearly negative for at least 3 months before the fires. These rainfall anomalies are related to warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and specially to those exhibiting highest SST anomalies in the central Pacific during the austral spring. The warm central Pacific events strengthen the southern Hadley cell around New Caledonian longitudes, with positive rainfall anomalies in the equatorial Pacific leading to an anomalous release of latent heat in the upper troposphere and an increased subsidence in the SW Pacific. Atmospheric anomalies are strongest in September–November because of a combination of a rather strong zonal SST gradient with the warmest SST in the equatorial Pacific just west of the dateline. Squared wavelet coherence between New Caledonia rainfall and Niño 4 SST index shows that their negative correlations are mostly carried by two distinct timescales : the classical ENSO variability and a quasi-decadal one, mainly during the September-November season.

Central America is a region regularly affected by natural disasters, with most of them having a hydro-meteorological origin. Therefore, the understanding of annual changes of precipitation upon the region is relevant for planning and mitigation of natural disasters. This thesis focuses on studying the precipitation variability at annual scales in Central America within the framework of the Swedish Centre for Natural Disaster Science. The aims of this thesis are: i) to establish the main climate variability sources during the boreal winter, spring and summer by using different statistical techniques, and ii) to study the connection of sea surface temperature anomalies of the neighbouring oceans with extreme precipitation events in the region. Composites analysis is used to establish the variability sources during winter. Canonical correlation analysis is employed to explore the connection between the SST anomalies and extreme rainfall events during May-June and August-October. In addition, a global circulation model is used to replicate the results found with canonical correlation analysis, but also to study the relationship between the Caribbean Sea surface temperature and the Caribbean low-level jet. The results show that during winter both El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are associated with changes of the sea level pressure near the North Atlantic Subtropical High and the Aleutian low. In addition, the El Niño Southern Oscillation signal is intensified (destroyed) when El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have the same (opposite) sign. Sea surface temperature anomalies have been related to changes in both the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall. Precipitation anomalies during May-June are associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the Tropical North Atlantic region. Whereas, precipitation anomalies during August-September-October are associated with the sea surface temperature anomalies contrast between the Pacific Ocean and the Tropical North Atlantic region. Model outputs show no association between sea surface temperature gradients and the Caribbean low-level jet intensification. Canonical correlation analysis shows potential for prediction of extreme precipitation events, however, forecast validation shows that socio-economic variables must be included for more comprehensive natural disaster assessments.

Cette thèse analyse (i) la variabilité pluviométrique contemporaine en Nouvelle-Calédonie et ses téléconnexions avec les températures de surface océanique (TSO) du Pacifique tropical et (ii) l'impact des anomalies atmosphériques sur l'activité des incendies estimés par satellites. La Nouvelle-Calédonie figure aujourd'hui parmi les 34 " points chauds " de la biodiversité à l'échelle planétaire. A ce titre, l'un de nos objectifs est de construire un modèle permettant de prévoir l'intensité de la saison des feux entre septembre et décembre, qui correspond au maximum annuel. Le croisement de trois bases de données de feux détectés par satellites (MODIS, ATSR et LANDSAT) avec le réseau des stations météorologiques de Météo-France a montré qu'aucune anomalie thermique significative n'est détectée avant un feu, tandis que de forts déficits pluviométriques par rapport à la normale sont enregistrés jusqu'à trois mois avant le départ des feux. Ces déficits pluviométriques sont partiellement liés aux phases chaudes du phénomène El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et plus particulièrement à celles durant lesquelles les anomalies thermiques se situent à proximité de la ligne de changement de date équatoriale lors du printemps austral. Ces anomalies renforcent la circulation moyenne de Hadley (via le dégagement de chaleur latente dans la moyenne et haute troposphère) et la subsidence au niveau des latitudes néo-calédoniennes, tandis que les épisodes les plus intenses du siècle dernier (i.e. 1982-83 et 1997-98) dont les anomalies thermiques les plus importantes sont localisées dans le Pacifique oriental, sont associés à des conditions pluviométriques proches de la normale dans le Pacifique sud-ouest (SW). La téléconnexion entre les TSO du Pacifique central et les précipitations du Pacifique SW s'affaiblit à partir du mois de décembre au moment où l'ENSO atteint, paradoxalement, son intensité maximale. Cette modulation saisonnière est le produit d'une interaction entre (i) le cycle saisonnier des TSO brutes dans le Pacifique central, (ii) le cycle de vie des anomalies thermiques des épisodes chauds et (iii) l'intensité du gradient zonal des TSO le long de l'équateur. Par ailleurs, la convection profonde semble particulièrement sensible à la propagation vers l'est des anomalies de TSO faibles-à-modérées au niveau de la ligne de changement de date équatoriale (soit légèrement à l'ouest de la boîte Niño 3.4), modifiant significativement la position et l'intensité de la courroie de transmission des téléconnexions. Une analyse en ondelettes montre que les pluies néo-calédoniennes sont également sensibles à des modes de variations plus lents (> 8 ans) du Pacifique central entre septembre et novembre. La synchronisation entre la saisonnalité des feux et la prévisibilité saisonnière liée à l'ENSO permet d'estimer la surface brûlée totale en septembre-décembre à partir des états thermiques de l'océan Pacifique en juin-août, dont la polarité est clairement établie plusieurs mois à l'avance. La corrélation entre l'observation et la simulation du logarithme du total des surfaces brûlées en Nouvelle-Calédonie est de 0.87 sur la période 2000-2010 selon un modèle linéaire en validation croisée.