The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry-and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Nino events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Nino events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.

L’océan Pacifique est le siège de variabilités climatiques interannuel et multi-décennale, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et la Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), dont les répercussions (via des téléconnections) peuvent être mondiales. Des impacts importants sur les populations, les activités socio-économiques et sur l’environnement ont été attribuées à ENSO. Il est alors primordial d’améliorer notre compréhension de la dynamique Pacifique et notamment du phénomène ENSO ainsique son évolution sous l’effet du changement climatique.Les mesures géochimiques (Sr/Ca et 818O) réalisées sur les coraux constituent des enregistrements paléoclimatiques de choix pour l’étude de l’évolution d’ENSO et sont essentielles pour mettre en perspective la dynamique actuelle du climat par rapport à sa dynamique passée. Après avoir évaluer la robustesse du paléothermomètre géochimique corallien (Sr/Ca), cette thèse a permis la reconstruction de température de surface océanique (SST) à partir de coraux de l’atoll de Clipperton (Pacifique tropical Est) et de l’archipel des Marquises (Pacifique tropical centre) couvrantplusieurs parties du dernier millénaire. Nos résultats suggèrent que la structure spatiale d’ENSO étaitplutôt stable au cours des deux derniers siècles, montrant majoritairement une structure de type ENSOcanonique (Est Pacifique) par opposition à l’ENSO Modoki (centre Pacifique). Bien qu’encore débattue, cette structure spatiale pourrait avoir évoluée très récemment, en liaison avec le changement climatique global (et cela pourrait continuer dans le futur). A l’échelle décennale, nos deux zones d’étude (centre et Est Pacifique) sont influencées par la PDO.Les résultats de cette thèse tendent également à suggérer que l’activité d’ENSO actuelle (sous l’effet du forçage anthropique) n’est pas atypique à l’échelle du dernier millénaire. En effet, son intensité et sa fréquence étaient plus fortes au début du petit âge glaciaire (LIA, 16ème siècle). La comparaison deces résultats avec un ensemble de simulations climatiques (PMIP3) montre que la variabilité ENSO estbien reproduite par ces modèles climatiques mais qu’ils échouent à reproduire correctement l’état moyen des températures du Pacifique. / The Pacific Ocean is the place of interannual and multi-decadal climate variabilities, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There can have globals impacts via teleconnections. Major impacts on populations, economic and environmental activitieshave been attributed to ENSO. It is therefore essential to improve our understanding of the Pacificdynamic, particularly ENSO activity and its evolution under recent climate change.Geochemical measurements (Sr/Ca and 818O) performed on corals are relevant paleoclimatic records for studying the evolution of ENSO and are essential to put into perspective the current climatedynamic in comparison to past climate.After an evaluation of the robustness of the coral geochemical paleothermometer (Sr/Ca), we present the reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) from Eastern tropical Pacific coral (Clippertonatoll) and central tropical Pacific coral (Marquesas archipelago) covering several parts of the last millennium. Our results suggest that ENSO spatial pattern was relatively stable over the past two centuries, mainly indicating an eastern Pacific ENSO pattern (canonical) in comparison to the centralPacific ENSO (Modoki). Although still debated, this spatial pattern could have recently changed dueto global climate change (and this could continue in the future). At the decadal timescale, both studiedareas (central and eastern Pacific) are influenced by the PDO.The results of this Phd thesis also suggest that the present day ENSO activity (under the influence ofanthropogenic forcing) is not atypical throughout the last millennium. The intensity and frequency of ENSO were stronger in the early Little Ice Age (LIA, 16th century). These results are compared withan ensemble of climate simulations (PMIP3) and indicate that ENSO variability is correctly reproduced by numerical climate models but that these models fail to correctly reproduce the mean temperature state of the Pacific.

Syftet med detta kandidatarbete har varit att undersöka halterna natrium och kalium i de åtta viktigaste och största procesströmmarna vid Stora Enso Skoghalls sulfatmassabruk. En natrium- och svavelbalans är viktigt för att förstå behovet av tillskott eller utblödning av olika ämnen i processen. Balansen för kalium och klorid behöver man också få information om, då en obalans kan leda till att elfilteraskan blir klibbig. Extra fokus har lagts på massaströmmarna, för att undersöka halten katjoner som är fiberbundna respektive lösta i filtratvätska. Analyser av samtliga prover har genomförts laborativt och metoder som Schönigerförbränning, oxidering och syraupplösning har använts. Slutbestämning av samtliga halter gjordes med en flamfotometer. Genom analysresultaten och kompletterande referensdata sattes en natrium- och kaliumbalans upp. Balansen visade på ett överskott av både natrium och kalium, vilket kan bero på bland annat variationer i driften. Analys av massaprover med ett alkaliskt pH visade att den största andelen katjoner var fiberbundna. Vid surgöring av massan bytte majoriteten av natriumjonerna plats med vätejonerna och halten natrium i filtratet blev högre än halten fiberbunden.

No description available.

Snow/ice events are indeed a rare occurrence in the southeast United States. As a result, residents of the Southeast often exemplify a passive attitude towards winter weather and are often unprepared when it strikes. This study analyzed every recorded winter weather event that struck the Southeast (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia) from the winter season of 1961-'62 through 2000-'01 from both a spatial and temporal standpoint. Through the results of this study, it was evident that Georgia saw the most overall winter weather events and January seemed to be the most productive month overall. This study also analyzed teleconnection (ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO) indices per study period season in order to deduce correlations with active/inactive Southeast winters. Through statistical analyses, correlations were deemed insignificant.

No description available.

Previous research indicates that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) could alter storm tracks and precipitation patterns in western North America and negatively impact water resources in the American southwest. Other research suggests that multiple periods of increased precipitation and/or cooler temperatures in the American southwest during the Little Ice Age (LIA) were due to strong El Niño events; historical records also describe expanded Arctic SIC at this time. We use 16th-19th century Arctic SIC records from the ACSYS Historical Ice Chart Archive as a basis for expanding Arctic SIC from 1870 HadISST data to theoretical LIA extents. Then, in a suite of sensitivity studies, we investigate the relative influences of and interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related sea surface temperature (SST) variation and varying Arctic SIC in controlling storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and overall climate conditions in the American southwest. We find that tropical Pacific SSTs greatly influence climate system response to variability in Arctic SIC, with ENSO-Neutral SSTs permitting the greatest response. Additionally, the degree of expansion and symmetry of Arctic SIC also influence precipitation regime response. These findings suggest that the climate response to future Arctic SIC retreat may not only be highly dependent on the spatial patterns and extent of SIC reductions, but also upon ENSO variability, such that El Nino events may reduce the potential climate impact of ice reductions as compared to Neutral or La Nina events. / Master of Science

Die folgende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Vorhersagbarkeit und der zeitlichen Struktur von Indizes der klimatischen Variabilität des tropischen Pazifiks, bekannt in der Jahrzentenskala als El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Untersucht wurden die Zeitreihen der Anomalien und Persistenzen der Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), den Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) und die Meeresoberflächentemperatur (SST). Methoden der dynamischen und bedingten schannonschen Entropien wurden für die Untersuchung der Vorhersagbarkeit von symbolischen Sequenzen der Zeitreihen angewendet. Die Untersuchung der bedingten Entropien für symbolische Sequenzen ergibt, dass die meist vorhersagbare Evente von ENSO nach konstanten Teilsequenzen stattfinden. Für mehrere Evente sind zeitliche Korrelationen nachweisbar, die die Vorhersagbarkeit eines Symbols nach einer Teilsequenz in Funktion derer Länge bestimmen. Die Evolution nach Teilsequenzen, die Übergangszuständen entsprechen, sind mit vergleichsweiseniedrigeren Vorhersagbarkeiten versehen. Dabei ist auf die meist vorhersagbaren Teilsequenzen im Detail eingegangen. Es wurde weiterhin festgestellt, dass sich die SST in den meisten Fällen als die zuverlässigste Informationsquelle erweist. Die Analyse der Waveletspektren der Zeitreihen zeigt starke Periodizitäten der Ordnung zwischen 2 und 4 Jahren, die zwischen 1900 und 1960, und 1970 und 2000 in ENSO auftreten. Es besteht Evidenz dafür, dass diese Frequenzkomponenten nicht von einem gefiteten Markovprozess erster Ordnung zurückzuführen sind. Eine Steigung der Frequenzkomponenten zu niedrigeren Perioden ist weiterhin in den Anomalien der Meerestemperatur vorzuweisen. / This doctoral thesis is concerned with the problems of the predictability and the temporal structure of indices of the climatic variability in the tropical Pacific, which is known in the scale of decades as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, time series of the anomalies and persistences of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) were investigated. Methods of the dynamical and conditional shannon entropies were applied for the investigation of the predictability of symbolic sequences derived from the time series. The investigation of the conditional entropies for symbolic sequences shows that the most probable Events of ENSO occur after constant short sequences. Time correlations are found for several events; these determine the predictability of a sequence as a function of its length. The evolutions of short sequences representing transitions between ENSO states are relatively less predictable. The most predictable short sequences have been studied in detail. It was further found that, in most cases, SST is the most reliable information source. The analysis of the wavelet spectra of the time series shows strong periodicities of 2 to 4 years, which appear between 1900 and 1960, and between 1970 and 2000 in ENSO. There is evidence of a non-markovian process being responsible for these frequency components. Furthermore, the anomalies of the SST series show a gradient of frequency components towards smaller periods.

The climatic conditions of the northern Sierra of Peru are marked by the interaction of different macro- to mesoscale climatic features such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) and the seasonally shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), but also by local scale climatic features such as inhomogeneous topography and local wind fields. The region under investigation, located in the vicinity of the South America Continental Water Divide (CWD), provides the opportunity to study interactions of western and eastern disturbances in a high mountain environment and their effects on rainfall variability. In general, rainfall variability is related to diurnal convection patterns, enhanced by valley breeze systems and modulated by local scale wind anomalies. Spillover of low-level air masses of Pacific origin passing over the Andean ridges is frequent. Although direct effects of ENSO on high Andean rainfall variability are in debate, our findings show that the majority of rain gauges used in this study follow an El Niño/dry and a La Niña/wet signal. However, high elevation areas on the western escarpment of the Andes benefit from abundant nocturnal rainfall that partly offsets the rainfall deficits during El Niño. Our data suggest that the spatial extent of this easterly wet pulse is limited to areas located above 3000 m asl. ENSO cycles contribute to rainfall variability near the CWD in the northern Sierra of Peru by modulating the seasonal rainfall regime and causing a positive temperature anomaly. / Las condiciones climáticas de la sierra norte del Perú están marcadas por la interacción de diferentes rasgos climáticos a escalas macro y meso, tal como el fenómeno ENSO o los Complejos Convectivos a Meso-escala (MCC) y la estacionalmente móvil Zona de Interconvergencia Intertropical (ITCZ), pero también por rasgos climáticos a escala local tales como la heterogeneidad topográfica y los campos de vientos locales. La zona de estudio se ubica en las cercanías de la divisoria de aguas continentales de Sudamérica (CWD), provee la oportunidad de estudiar las interacciones de las disturbancias occidental y oriental en un ambiente de alta montaña y sus efectos en la variabilidad de las precipitaciones. En general la variabilidad de las precipitaciones se relaciona con patrones de convección diurna, reforzada por los sistemas de brisas de valle y modulada por anomalías de vientos a escala local. El desplazamiento de masas de aire a baja altura provenientes del Pacífico que remontan los Andes es frecuente. Aunque los efectos directos del ENSO en la variabilidad de las precipitaciones andinas está todavía en debate, nuestras investigaciones muestran que la mayoría de las mediciones hechas para este estudio siguen una señal El Niño/seco y La Niña/húmedo. Sin embargo, las zonas altas de lasescarpas occidentales de los Andes se benefician de abundante lluvia nocturna que parcialmente completa los déficits de precipitaciones durante El Niño. Nuestros datos sugieren que la cobertura espacial de este pulso húmedo del Este se limita a áreas que se ubican encima de los 3000 msnm. Los ciclos ENSO contribuyen a la variabilidad de las precipitaciones cerca del CWD en la sierra norte del Perú mediante la modulación del régimen estacional de lluvias que causa una anomalía de temperatura positiva.

Les coups de vent d’ouest (WWEs) issu de la variabilité synoptique atmosphérique jouent un rôle crucial dans les irrégularités d’ENSO en contribuant au déclenchement et au développement de sa phase chaude, El Niño. Les WWEs sont des événements haute fréquence peu prévisibles et dont les origines atmosphériques restent encore débattues. Dans le but d’affiner la prévisibilité d’ENSO, cette thèse caractérise la part stochastique de la part prévisible des WWEs ainsi que de leur réponse océanique et couplée. Dans une première partie, j’ai relié l’occurrence et les caractéristiques des coups de vent à des phénomènes de grande échelle comme l'oscillation de Madden-Julian, les ondes de Rossby atmosphériques et ENSO, à partir d’analyse d’observations. Ensuite, la forte sensibilité de la réponse océanique des WWEs à l’état de l’océan a été mise en évidence grâce à une série de simulations océaniques forcées. Finalement, une simulation d’ensemble réalisée avec un modèle couplé océan-atmosphère a permis d'explorer le rôle des WWEs dans l’évolution contrastée des années 1997,2014 et 2015 qui présentaient des conditions similaires et favorables au déclenchement d'El Niño. Les résultats de ce travail montrent que la stochasticité des WWEs aboutit à une limitation intrinsèque de la prévisibilité des caractéristiques d’El Niño. / Equatorial Pacific Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) impact ENSO evolution through their oceanic response and strongly contribute to its irregularities. WWEs are characterized by episodes of anomalous, short-lived, strong westerlies developing over the western Pacific warm pool. This thesis characterize the atmospheric origins and the oceanic and coupled impacts of these events in order to improve ENSO prediction. First, we show that, at intraseasonnal timescale, the Madden-Julian oscillation and the convectively coupled Rossby waves provide favourable conditions for the occurence of WWEs and confirm their modulation by ENSO at interannual timescale. Oceanic simulation with idealized forcing further allow characterizing and understanding the modulation of the SST response to WWE by the oceanic background state. Finally, The role of WWEs in the contrasted evolution of El Niño in 1997,2014 and 2015, which exhibited favourable conditions for El Niño to develop, is explored in ensemble simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. It is shown that the stochasticity of the WWEs acts as a strong limitation for ENSO predictability.