Correlation tests were run on yearly snowfall and tornado activity data collected between water-years 1965/66 and 2010/11. Snowfall activity was evaluated using two separate measurements, which included snowfall days and daily snow depth. Tornado activity was measured through tornado days and total yearly tornado occurrences. Tornado days were defined as a 24-h period (0600–0600 UTC) during which either one or more tornadoes occurred within a chosen southern region boundary. Correlation tests revealed an absence of any mutual relationship between the snowfall and tornado activity. Three prominent teleconnections (ENSO, NAO, & AO), 6-month (Oct-Dec and Feb-Apr) and 3-month means (Oct-May) were also analyzed to reveal possible correlations with the tornado and snowfall activity. Significant negative correlations were found between ONI × tornado days; ONI × tornado totals; NAOI × snowfall days; NAOI × snow depth; AOI × snowfall days; and AOI × snow depth

The entropy of all systems is supposed to increase with time, this is also observed in the hydroclimatic records as increased variability. The current dissertation is primarily focused on the hydrologic variability of the hydrologic records in the climate regions across Continental United States. The study evaluated the effects of serial correlation in the historical streamflow records on both gradual trend and abrupt shift in streamflow. The study also evaluated the trend before and after the shift occurrence to validate whether the observed changes in streamflow is a result of long-term variability or climate regime shift. Secondly, the current dissertation evaluated the variability within western US hydrology which is highly driven by the oscillation of Pacific Ocean such as El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dissertation evaluated the variability in snow water equivalent (SWE) of western US as the winter snow accumulation of the region drives the spring-summer streamflow in the region which contributes to the major portion of yearly streamflow. The SWE variability during the individual phases of ENSO were analyzed to reveal the detailed influence of ENSO on historic snow accumulations. The study is not solely limited to the hydrologic variability evaluation rather; it also delves into obtaining the time lagged spatiotemporal teleconnections between large scale climate variables and streamflow and forecast the later based on the obtained teleconnections. To accomplish the research goals the current dissertation was subdivided into three research tasks. First task dealt with the streamflow records of 419 unimpaired streamflow records which were grouped into seven climate regions based on National Climate Assessment, to evaluate the regional changes in both seasonal streamflow and yearly streamflow percentiles. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were utilized to evaluate the streamflow variability as gradual trend and abrupt shift, respectively. Walker test was performed to test the global significance of the streamflow variability within each climate regions based on local trend and shift significance of each streamflow stations. The task also evaluated the presence of serial correlation in the streamflow records and its effects on both trend and shift within the climate regions of continental United States for the first time. Maximum variability in terms of both trend and shift were observed for summer as compared to other seasons. Similarly, greater number of stations showed streamflow variability for 5th and 50th percentile streamflow as compared to 95th and 100th percentile streamflow. It was also observed that serial correlation affected both trend and step while, accounting for the lag-1 autocorrelation improved shift results. The results indicated that the streamflow variability has more likely occurred as shift as compared to the gradual trend. The outcomes of the current result detailing historic variability may help to envision future changes in streamflow. The second task evaluated the spatiotemporal variability of western US SWE over 58 years (1961–2018) as a trend and a shift. The task tested whether the SWE is consistent during ENSO phases utilizing the Kolmogorov – Smirnov (KS) test. Trend analysis was performed on the SWE data of each ENSO phase. Shift analysis was performed in the entire time series of 58 years. Additionally, the trend in the SWE data was evaluated before and after shift years. Mann- Kendal and Pettit's tests were utilized for the detection of trend and shift, respectively. The serial correlation was considered during the trend evaluation, while Thiel-Sen approach was used for the evaluation of the trend magnitude. The serial correlation in time series which is the potential cause of overestimation and underestimation of the trend evaluation was found to be absent in the SWE data. The results suggested a negative trend and a shift during the study period. The negative trend was absent during neutral years and present during El Niño and La Niña years. The trend magnitudes were maximum during La Niña years followed by those during El Niño years and the entire length of the data. It was also observed that if the presence of negative shift in the SWE was considered, then most of the stations did not show a significant trend before and after the occurrence of a shift. The third task forecasted the streamflow at a regional scale within Sacramento San Joaquin (SSJ) River Basin with largescale climate variables. SSJ is an agricultural watershed located in the drought sensitive region of California. The forecast techniques involved a hybrid statistical framework that eliminates the bias resulting from predefined indices at regional scale. The study was performed for eight unimpaired streamflow stations from 1962 to 2016. First, the Singular Valued Decomposition (SVD) teleconnections of the streamflow corresponding to 500 mbar geopotential height, sea surface temperature, 500 mbar specific humidity (SHUM500), and 500 mbar U-wind (U500) were obtained. Second, the skillful SVD teleconnections were screened non-parametrically. Finally, the screened teleconnections were used as the streamflow predictors in the non-linear regression models (K-nearest neighbor regression and data-driven support vector machine). The SVD results identified new spatial regions that have not been included in existing predefined indices. The nonparametric model indicated the teleconnections of SHUM500 and U500 being better streamflow predictors compared to other climate variables. The regression models were capable to apprehend most of the sustained low flows, proving the model to be effective for drought-affected regions. It was also observed that the forecasting approach showed better forecasting skills with preprocessed large-scale climate variables rather than using the predefined indices. The techniques involved in this task was simple, yet robust in providing qualitative streamflow forecasts that may assist water managers in making policy-related decisions when planning and managing watersheds.

Tree-ring series of oak, from both living trees (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and historic timbers in southeastern Slovenia were assembled into a 548-year regional chronology spanning the period A.D. 1456–2003. It is currently the longest and the most replicated oak chronology in this part of Europe located at the transition between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic influence. The chronology correlated significantly with regional and local chronologies up to 700 km away in Austria, Hungary, Serbia, Czech Republic and southern Germany. It also showed good ‘‘heteroconnection’’, i.e. agreement with chronologies of beech (Fagus sylvatica), ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and silver fir (Abies alba) in Slovenia. A preliminary dendroclimatic analysis shows that precipitation and temperature in June accounted for a high amount of variance (r250.51) in the tree-ring widths. The chronology thus contains considerable potential as a climate archive. We also present its use as a tool for the dating of wooden objects of the cultural heritage. Moreover, the chronology can be a point of reference for building tree-ring chronologies in neighboring regions.

This study investigates the response of lightning to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the vicinity of the U.S. Gulf Coast region and nearby adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico, for the years 1995-2002. The Gulf Coast region was selected for this study because of its high flash density (Orville and Huffines, 2001) and because it is an area where the ENSO fingerprint is very clearly demonstrated on both temperature and precipitation patterns (CPC, 2002). Additionally, this geographic domain roughly matches the only known study on this topic (Goodman et al., 2000). Winter is the season of greatest response to ENSO (CPC, 2004), and past studies show that summer has the most lightning activity (e.g., Orville and Huffines, 2001). The temporal domain of the study is restricted to 1995 and beyond, as this follows a system-wide upgrade of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) that improved overall flash detection efficiency (Cummins, et. al.1998; Wacker and Orville, 1999). Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed to explore the lightning data for ENSO teleconnections. Mean flash density maps were constructed for the complete period of record, individual months and the winter and summer seasons. Maps were visually examined for qualitative comparison with past climatologies and the Goodman et al., (2002) ENSO study. Additionally, monthly flash deviations are computed, visualized and correlated with the Niño 3.4 SST anomaly for all months in the study, seeking out variations in both the amount of flash deviation and spatial properties. Abundant literature exists on both ENSO and lightning individually. This study offers an insight into their intersection.

No description available.

Les océans expliquent une part importante de la variabilité des pluies de mousson en Afrique de l’ouest. Quels sont les mécanismes physiques de ces interactions océan– atmosphère ? Comment sont-elles reproduites par les modèles de climat ? Ces deux questions sont ici abordées, en séparant d’emblée les échelles de temps interannuelles et décennales, et en confrontant les simulations réalisées pour le 4e rapport du Groupe intergouvernemental d’experts sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) aux données observées du xxe siècle. À l’échelle interannuelle, les anomalies de température à la surface du Pacifique équatorial, du golfe de Guinée, et de la Méditerranée sont statistiquement liées aux anomalies des pluies d’Afrique de l’ouest. La question de la stationnarité de ces liens au cours du xxe siècle est brièvement abordée. Les mécanismes physiques sont ensuite appréhendés dans les réanalyses atmosphériques et dans les simulations couplées du GIEC. Pour comprendre le comportement du modèle du Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), différentes expériences de sensibilité sont réalisées en prescrivant à l’océan une tension de vent réanalysée, sur le Pacifique tropical ou sur tout globe. Une simulation atmosphérique avec des températures de surface prescrites est aussi utilisée pour discuter du rôle du couplage océan–atmosphère. Étant donné le caractère saisonnier de la mousson africaine, le phasage temporel de la variabilité océanique doit être considéré avec attention. Dans les modèles couplés, les biais de l’El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) et de l’Atlantic Niño conduisent en effet à des interactions océan–mousson différentes de celles observées. À terme, une meilleure compréhension et simulation de la variabilité océanique et de ses influences pourrait permettre d’améliorer les scores de prévision saisonnière sur l’Afrique de l’ouest / The oceans explain an important part of the variability of monsoon rainfall overWest Africa. What are the physical processes of those ocean–atmosphere interactions? How are they simulated by climate models? Both issues are addressed, by considering the interannual and decadal time-scales separately, and comparing the simulations performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the 20th Century observation record. At the interannual time-scale, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Mediterranean, are statistically linked to the West African monsoon rainfall. The stationnarity of those links is assessed over the 20th Century. The physical processes are then studied in the atmospheric reanalyses and in the IPCC coupled simulations. To understand the behaviour of the Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) model, various sensitivity experiments are carried out, with a reanalyzed wind-stress prescribed to the ocean model, over the tropical Pacific or over the global ocean. An atmospheric simulation with prescribed sea surface temperatures is also used, to discuss the role of the ocean–atmosphere coupling. Given the seasonality of the West African monsoon, attention has to be paid to the phaselocking of the oceanic variability. In the coupled models, the biases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the Atlantic Niño lead indeed to ocean–monsoon interactions that are different from those observed. A better understanding and simulation of the oceanic variability and its influences could in fine enhance the seasonal forecasting skills over West Africa

In this thesis I present the results of a comprehensive assessment of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern in general circulation models (GCMs) and a regional climate model (RCM). The PNA teleconnection pattern is a quasi-stationary wave field over the North Pacific and North America that has long been recognized as a robust feature of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, and directly affects the interannual variability of North American temperature and precipitation. The teleconnection is evaluated under present (1950-2000) and future (2050-2100) climate in a coupled GCM (MPI/ECHAM5) and a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). I further assess the PNA in 27 atmosphere-ocean GCMs and earth system models (ESMs) from the ongoing fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis serves a quasi-observational baseline against which the models are evaluated. For each analysis, changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of the PNA spatial are assessed for both the present and future climates, and these changes are then related to changes in climate and surface hydrology in North America. Coupling the NCEP and ECHAM5 GCMs with RegCM3 is very successful in that the PNA is resolved in both models with little loss of information between the GCMs and RegCM3, thereby allowing an assessment of high-resolution climate with an inherent skill comparable to that of the global models. The value of the PNA index is generally independent of the method used to calculate it: three- and four-point modified linear pointwise calculations for both the RegCM3 and ECHAM5 model simulations produce very similar indices compared with each other, and compared with those extracted from a rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) which is also used to determine the PNA spatial pattern. The spatial pattern of the PNA teleconnection emerges as a leading mode of variability from the RPCA, although the strength of the teleconnections are consistently weaker than NCEP as defined by four main "centers of action". This discrepancy translates into the strength of the controls of the PNA on surface climate. Maps of the correlations between the GCM PNA indices and RCM surface climate variables are compared to the results from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. I find that correlation patterns with temperature and precipitation are directly related to the positioning of the Aleutian low and Canadian high, the two main drivers of upper-atmospheric circulation in the PNA sector. The CMIP5 models vary significantly in their ability to simulate the quasi-observed features of the PNA teleconnections. The behavior of the models relative to NCEP is more definite than the trends within the models. Most models are unable to resolve the temporal variability of NCEP; however, on the other hand most of the models are able to capture the PNA as a low-frequency quasi-oscillation. Many of the models are unable to simulate the barotropic instability that initiates wave energy propagation through the 500-hPa geopotential height field, thereby leading to phase-locking and thus the positive and negative modes of PNA are indistinguishable. The behavior and the spatial patterns of the PNA throughout the 21st century are consistent with other projections of future climate change in that most models exhibit a lengthening of the eddy length scale and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet stream associated with polar amplification of greenhouse-gas driven global warming. Finally, my analyses underscore the robustness of multi-model means, suggesting that the cumulative results of multiple climate models outperform the results from individual models because ensemble means effectively cancel discrepancies and hereby expose only the most robust common features of the model runs. While ensembles provide better representation of the average climate, they potentially mask climate dynamics associated with inter-annual and longer time scales. Relying on ensemble means to limit model spread and uncertainties remains a necessity in using models to project future climate. / Graduation date: 2013

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18931号 / 工博第3973号 / 新制||工||1612 / 31882 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 間瀬 肇, 教授 平石 哲也, 准教授 森 信人 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

The impacts of climate variability and change on streamflow are of increasing concern, particularly as human demands on water supplies compete with the needs of natural ecosystems. The consequences on the hydrological cycle are predicted to be most severe for mid- to high-latitude regions. Of particular concern is reduced mountain snow accumulation and related reductions in the snow- and glacier-derived water supply. In northern British Columbia (BC), recent snowpack declines have caused a unique water management challenge. Diminishing water security in a region considered water-abundant has intensified over the last decade. Characterizing the climate controls on hydrologic variability is a priority for developing baseline information required for water supply forecasting. This research focuses on developing multi-century, annually-resolved records of snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow to provide a better understanding of long-term hydroclimate variability for the design and implementation of management strategies that balance riverine ecosystem services, such as recreation and fish habitat, with increasing economic and social demands. Climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies provide the opportunity to extend instrumental records of hydroclimate by capitalizing on the influence of climate on both annual radial growth and seasonal runoff. Traditional dendrohydrology relies on moisture-limited tree species from dry, continental settings. This dissertation presents a new method by focusing on mid- to high-elevation conifers sensitive to snowpack variability. Ring-width and maximum latewood density records from mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carriere), white spruce (P. glauca (Moench) Voss), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) stands were collected at sites in northern BC. Dendrochronological techniques were used to develop a: 1) 223-year record of April 1 SWE for the Stikine River basin; 2) 417-, 716-, and 343-year record of summer streamflow for the Skeena, Nass and Stikine rivers, respectively; and, 3) a 193-year reconstruction of summer-run Skeena River steelhead abundance based on the influence of ocean-atmospheric forcings on both radial tree growth and steelhead escapement. The April 1 SWE record suggests that there has been considerable variability in snowpack levels in the Stikine basin and a distinct in-phase relationship with seasonalized Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices, not seen in basins to the south. The summer streamflow records also support a north-south “see-saw” effect, suggesting an association between moisture transport and atmospheric-ocean circulation in the region. In addition to the snow-sensitive tree-ring data, the streamflow models incorporated paleo-hemispheric records to improve predictive skill. Finally, the steelhead model described alternating intervals of persistently above-average and below-average abundance that corresponded to oceanic PDO-like influences and describe links to “warm-warm” ENSO-PDO years associated with in-river low flow periods. The reconstructions suggest that: 1) recent snowpack and streamflow declines are a rare event over a multi-century context; and, 2) existing instrumental records do not adequately represent the historic range of basin-specific hydroclimate variability necessary for new planning horizons. Mid- to high-elevation, snow-sensitive conifers have strong potential as paleohydrological proxies and for expanding the application of dendrohydrology to non-arid settings. Current conditions in northern BC, compounded by land use changes and climate change, are predicted to become more severe in the future. It is important that planning regimes incorporate long-term hydroclimate data to better understand and quantify how water supply and ecosystems will respond to future changes. / Graduate

No description available.