Les termites forment un groupe animal important en milieu tropical, où leur richesse spécifique est plus élevée que dans n’importe quel autre écosystème. Ils se nourrissent de matière organique végétale à différent état de décomposition, du bois dur à la matière organique minérale du le sol. Cette diversification du régime alimentaire ne se produit que chez les Termitidae, parfois appelés « termites supérieurs », alors que les autres familles se nourrissent exclusivement de bois ou d’herbe. Les termites humivores sont extrêmement abondants en Amérique du Sud et en Afrique tropicale, mais sont relativement peu étudiés par rapport aux termites xylophages. C’est particulièrement vrai pour le groupe Anoplotermes, qui représente le groupe de termites le moins bien connu. Ce travail vise à faire la lumière sur l’écologie et la diversité de ce groupe strictement humivore, et comprend les sections suivantes : (1) Des échantillonnages standardisés dans sept sites de Guyane Française ont révèle, avec quelques exceptions, que les termites xylophages sont relativement peu spécialisés à un site. Au contraire, les espèces du groupe Anoplotermes, ainsi que les termites humivores en général, sont spécialisés à un type de forêt. Cette spécialisation contribue plus que probablement à la diversification écologique, et donc, à une augmentation de la richesse spécifique des termites humivores. (2) En utilisant les ratios d’isotopiques δ13C et δ15N, nous avons aussi trouvé qu’il existe une spécialisation des espèces le long d’un gradient d’humification chez le groupe Anoplotermes, de l’interface entre le bois pourri et le sol au sol pauvre en matière organique. Donc, au moins deux facteurs favorisent la richesse spécifique du groupe Anoplotermes dans le sol, malgré le manque d’évidence pour une séparation spatiale et temporelle entre les espèces. Cette spécialisation spécifique réduit la compétition interspécifique aux espèces se nourrissant de matière organique au même état de décomposition. (3) Ce mécanisme n’est probablement pas restreint aux espèces du groupe Anoplotermes et le ratio isotopique δ15N varie considérablement entre les termites humivores de manière générale. Les termites humivores comptent des espèces avec des régimes alimentaires différents ne partageant pas toujours les mêmes niches écologiques. Cette diversification du régime alimentaire ne c’est pas produit de manière aléatoire durant l’évolution des termites et les espèces proches tendent à se nourrir du même substrat. (4) Au niveau intraspécifique, il semble que la compétition contraigne la dynamique des colonies. En effet, chez A. banksi, nous avons trouvé que les nids matures sont surdispersés. Les nouveaux nids se trouvent principalement à une certaine distance des nids établis, plus particulièrement dans les trous laissés par les nids morts. Si ce patron est le résultat d’une sélection des sites de nidification, ou plutôt d’une exclusion compétitive reste sujet à discussion, mais met néanmoins en évidence la présence de compétition chez les termites humivores du groupe Anoplotermes. (5) Au vu de la richesse spécifique locale du groupe Anoplotermes, le nombre d’espèces décrites reste remarquablement bas. Après inspection du matériel type, seuls 30 espèces du groupe se sont avérés valides en Amérique du Sud, alors que 80% des espèces que nous avons collectées sont nouvelles pour la science. Cette disproportion entre ce qui est connu et la diversité réelle du groupe, met en évidence le besoin de réaliser des études supplémentaires pour améliorer la connaissance de ce groupe peu connu, le groupe Anoplotermes.

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Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Biology / Samantha Wisely / Habitat fragmentation and destruction are the most ubiquitous and serious environmental threats confronting the long-term survival of plant and animal species worldwide. However, some native or exotic species can take advantages of these alterations and expand their range, placing endemic species at risk of extinction by changing the composition of biotic communities and altering ecosystem. Capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) are a widely distributed rodent throughout most of South and Central America, but restricted to areas of standing water. As the Gran Chaco ecosystem of Paraguay has been converted from dry tropical forest to pastureland, I hypothesized that this habitat alteration created potential for invasion by capybara into newly fragmented areas. I used ecological niche modeling to generate hypotheses about how the distribution of capybara has been affected by land use change, and tested those hypotheses with phylogeographic analyses. To understand the mechanisms that have allowed the invasion, I investigated home range, habitat use and thermoregulation of capybara via radiotelemetry in a deforested area in which capybara had recently invaded. Genetic analyses confirm a rapid range expansion scenario with evidence of secondary contact between two distinct phylogroups which had previously been disjunct. Modeling results indicated that conversion of forest to pastureland allowed the expansion to occur. Capybara selected water significantly more than it was available to them, and avoided shrub forest. I found a significant positive correlation between body temperature and distance from water, and a significant negative correlation between distance from water and Chaco ambient temperature. Capybara proximity to water appeared to be tightly linked to body thermoregulation. These results suggest that although capybara have expanded into the Chaco forest as it is converted to pastureland, the presence of permanent water sources in those pastures are the mechanism that allow capybara to persist in this habitat. This is the first study to characterize capybara in a xeric habitat without a year round water source, and scarce natural grasslands. My results show how anthropogenic habitat modification has allowed capybara to thrive. Understanding how capybara invade and utilize the deforested Central Dry Chaco will provide valuable information for the future management of the species and the Chaco ecosystem.

Environmentally related selective pressures and community interactions are well-documented drivers for niche differentiation, as natural selection acts on adaptive traits best fit for survival. Here, we investigated niche evolution between and within Pinus taeda, Pinus rigida, and Pinus pungens and sought to identify which climate variables contributed to species divergence. We also sought to describe niche differentiation across genetic groupings previously identified for P. taeda and P. rigida. Ecological niche models were produced using Maximum Entropy followed by statistical testing based on a measure of niche overlap, Schoener’s D. Both niche conservatism and niche divergence were detected, thus leading us to conclude that directional or disruptive selection drove divergence of the P. taeda lineage from its ancestor with P. rigida and P. pungens, while stabilizing selection was associated with the divergence of P. rigida and P. pungens. The latter implies that factors beyond climate are important drivers of speciation within Pinus.

As várzeas do Alto Tietê e do Alto Paraíba do Sul, na Mata Atlântica do sudeste brasileiro, têm sido severamente exploradas e ocupadas por cidades, agricultura, e mineração nos últimos 500 anos. Endêmico destas áreas, o bicudinho-do-brejo-paulista (Formicivora paludicola) passou muito tempo desconhecido para a ciência, até sua descoberta em 2005, quando sua situação de ameaça parecia preocupante. Esta ave (Thamnophilidae) foi descoberta à beira da extinção, e nada se sabe sobre sua distribuição, história natural, estrutura populacional e seleção de habitat, o que gera perspectivas de conservação pessimistas e desacreditadas. Este trabalho traz uma investigação da distribuição da espécie e das áreas mais adequadas à sua sobrevivência usando modelos ecológicos de nicho, amostragens de campo e modelos de ocupação. Nossos resultados mostram que a espécie deve ser considerada Criticamente Ameaçada de acordo com os critérios da IUCN. A ocupação humana na região resultou em uma perda de mais de 300 km2 de habitat adequado à ocorrência de F. paludicola, que agora apresenta uma área de ocupação severamente fragmentada de 1,42 km2. Além disso, esta espécie apresenta capacidade de dispersão limitada, alta especificidade de habitat e disponibilidade de habitat restrita. Também apontamos que brejos com menor densidade de taboa (Typha dominguensis) apresentam maiores probabilidades de ocorrência de F. paludicola, e que essas áreas devem ser priorizadas em futuros esforços de conservação. Usando estimativas geradas por Kernel, nós ainda mostramos que a espécie apresenta pequena área de vida de apenas 0,55 ha, e ocorre em altas densidades nas áreas ocupadas remanescentes, apresentando tamanho populacional entre 383 e 985 indivíduos maduros. Por fim, usando \"Torus shift\", nós demonstramos que a espécie exótica invasora, lírio-do-brejo (Hedychium coronarium) é evitada por F. paludicola, e que a invasão biológica representa mais uma ameaça às populações existentes. A conservação desta espécie reside na criação de uma rede de unidades de conservação conectadas, com áreas naturais e restauradas. Por causa de sua estrutura populacional marcada pela alta densidade, a espécie pode prosperar em áreas alagadas adequadas protegidas da ocupação humana, contaminação dos corpos d\'água e plantas exóticas invasoras. Estes esforços poderiam ajudar não só esta ave extremamente ameaçada, mas também restaurar uma parte das áreas alagadas da Mata Atlântica no estado de São Paulo / Wetlands in Upper Tietê and Upper Paraíba do Sul basins, in southeastern Atlantic Forest, Brazil, have been severely transformed by urbanization, agriculture and mining in the last 500 years. Endemic to these areas, the São Paulo Marsh Antwren (Formicivora paludicola) persisted through this period unknown to science until its discovery in 2005, when its threatened situation became worrying. This bird (Thamnophilidae) was discovered on the verge of extinction, and virtually nothing is known about its natural history, population structure and habitat selection, which made conservation perspectives pessimist and discredited. We investigated both the species distribution and the distribution of its suitable areas using ecological niche modeling, fieldwork surveys and occupancy models. Our results show that the species should be considered \"Critically Endangered\" according to IUCN criteria. Human occupation has resulted in a loss of more than 300 km2 of suitable habitat, so that it now occupies a total and severely fragmented area of only 1.42 km2. Additionally, F. paludicola has limited dispersal ability, narrow habitat specificity, and restricted habitat availability. Furthermore, we showed that marshes with lower cattail (Typha dominguensis) densities have higher probabilities of being occupied. Thus, these areas should be prioritized in future conservation efforts. Using Kernel home range estimations, we show that the species has a small home range of about 0.55 ha, and occurs in high densities in those areas where it is still present, with a total population size between 383 and 985 mature birds. Furthermore, using a novel tool for animal habitat selection studies, the Torus Shift, we showed that the alien invasive ginger lily (Hedychium coronarium) is avoided by the species, and that this invasion represents a serious threat to the remaining populations. The successful conservation of F. plaudicola rests on the creation of a series of interconnected protected areas, with natural and restored wetlands. Given the high density of their population structure, this species could thrive in a relatively small area of suitable wetlands protected from human occupation, water contamination and invasive plants. Such efforts would also greatly contribute to the general conservation and restoration of Atlantic Forest wetlands

Estudos filogeográficos almejam compreender a distribuição da diversidade genética de uma espécie. E ainda, estudos de organismos co-distribuídos permitem inferir os processos atuantes na história da região de sua ocorrência. Dentro desse contexto o presente trabalho se propôs a estudar a filogeografia de duas espécies de passeriformes endêmicos da Mata Atlântica, Chiroxiphia caudata e Hemitrccus diops, visando auxiliar na compreensão da evolução da biota neste bioma. Foram utilizados indivíduos amostrados ao longo da distribuição das espécies: 112 de C. caudata e 82 de H. diops. Foram obtidas sequências parciais do gene mitocondrial ND2 (932 pb e 910 pb, respectivamente para C. caudata e H. diops), de um íntron do gene G3PDH (303 pb e 323 pb, respectivamente), e de íntrons do gene ODC (517 pb) para H. diops. Não foi encontrada estrutura filogeográfica em C. caudata, que apresentou sinal de expansão recente. A ausência de estrutura pode ser decorrência do longo tempo de geração da espécie. Modelos de distribuição da espécie durante o último máximo glacial apresentaram dois cenários divergentes, um com distribuição predominantemente ao norte e outro com distribuição similar ou maior que a atual. Em contraste, foi encontrada uma baixa, mas clara estrutura filogeográfica em H. diops. Os sinais de alteração demográfica, entretanto, são menos claros, havendo tanto sinal de expansão quanto de estabilidade populacional ao longo dos ciclos glaciais. A diversidade de padrões filogeográficos encontrada na presente Dissertação é congruente com achados sobre a distribuição da diversidade genética de outros organismos da Mata Atlântica, e ultimamente, refletem a complexidade do bioma como um todo / Phylogeographic studies aim to analyze the distribution of the genetic diversity of a given species. In addition, studies of co-distributed organisms enable to infer historic processes acting on the region where they occur. In this context the present work intended to study the phylogeography of two Atlantic Forest endemic birds, Chiroxiphia caudata and Hemitriccus diops to help to understand how this biome evolved. 112 individuals of C. caudata and 82 of H. diops were sampled throughout their distributions. We obtained partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene ND2 (932 bp and 910 bp, respectively, for C. caudata and H. diops), of an intron of the G3PDH gene (303 bp and 323 bp, respectively), and introns from the ODC gene (517 bp) of H. diops. No signal of phylogeographic structure was found for C. caudata,, which exhibits signal of recent demographic expansion. The absence of population structure may be a consequence of the species long generation time. Models of distribution during the last glacial maximum exhibited two discordant scenarios: one with its main distribution in the north and another with a similar or larger distribution than the current one. In contrast, we found a shallow, but clear phylogeographic structure for H. diops. The demographic history, however, was not clear, with signal of both demographic expansion and stability during the glacial cycles. The different phylogeographic patterns found here are congruent with the diversity of patterns observed in other Atlantic Forest organisms, reflecting the complex history of the biome

Orientador: Ananda Virginia de Aguiar / Resumo: Myracrodruon urundeuva é uma espécie madeireira natural com grande potencial de uso comercial no Brasil, principalmente nas regiões do Pantanal, do Cerrado e da Caatinga, onde ocorre a exploração de espécies nativas. A exploração intensiva tem causado grande perda de indivíduos e o isolamento de populações em ilhas, devido à fragmentação do habitat da espécie. Assim, a adoção de estratégias para conservação ex situ de espécie nativas torna-se indispensável. Duas propostas foram idealizadas neste trabalho. A primeira foi estimar a variabilidade genética e ganho genético com a seleção de um teste de progênies. O teste de progênie consorciado com as espécies Myracrodruon urundeuva, Terminalia argentea e Astronium fraxinifolium, foi instalado em 12 de julho de 1994 na Fazenda de Ensino, Pesquisa e Extensão (FEPE), do campus de Ilha Solteira (FEIS/UNESP) na cidade Selvíria – MS. O delineamento utilizado foi o de blocos completos casualizados, contendo 28 progênies, seis plantas por parcela e quatro repetições para as espécies instaladas. Os caracteres altura e diâmetro a altura do peito (DAP) foram mensurados aos 24 anos após o plantio. Verificou-se a existência de variação genética significativa entre as progênies para os caracteres analisados. A alta taxa de sobrevivência indica boa adaptação da espécie em testes consorciados. As estimativas do coeficiente de variação genética tiveram resultados de 19,41% e 17,26% para DAP e altura, em nível de indivíduo, e de 9,7% e 8,63%, entr... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Myracrodruon urundeuva is a natural timber species with great potential for commercial use in Brazil, especially in the Pantanal, Cerrado and Caatinga regions, where native species are exploited. Intensive exploitation has caused great loss of individuals and the isolation of populations on islands due to the fragmentation of the species' habitat. Thus, the adoption of strategies for ex situ conservation of native species becomes indispensable. Two proposals were conceived in this work. The first was to estimate the genetic variability and genetic gain with the selection of a progeny test. The progeny test consortium with the species Myracrodruon urundeuva, Terminalia argentea and Astronium fraxinifolium, was installed on July 12, 1994 at the Fazenda de Ensino, Pesquisa e Extensão (FEPE), at the campus of Ilha Solteira (FEIS / UNESP) in the city Selvíria MS. The design was a randomized complete block, containing 28 progenies, six plants per plot and four replications for the species installed. The height and diameter of the chest height (dch) were measured at 24 years after planting. There was significant genetic variation between the progenies for the characters analyzed. The high survival rate indicates good adaptation of the species in intercropping tests. Estimates of the coefficient of genetic variation showed results of 19.41% and 17.26% for DBH and height, at the individual level, and of 9.7% and 8.63% among progenies. The individual heritabilities ranged from moderate... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Duas espécies de cetáceos apresentam padrões de distribuição peculiares ao longo da costa brasileira, muito provavelmente em resposta às condições hidrográficas e topográficas que ocorrem entre 20 e 33°S. A primeira espécie, a franciscana ou toninha (Pontoporia blainvillei), é um golfinho de distribuição restrita do Brasil até a Argentina, que ocorre primariamente na plataforma continental interna, raramente ultrapassando os 50 m de profundidade. Já a segunda espécie, o golfinho-pintado-do-Atlântico (Stenella frontalis), é um golfinho de distribuição restrita ao Oceano Atlântico, que ocupa principalmente a plataforma continental. Estas duas espécies apresentam hiatos ao longo da sua distribuição no Brasil que tem consequências na morfologia e estrutura genética das espécies. Através da aplicação de diferentes métodos, o principal objetivo deste estudo foi investigar a influência do ambiente marinho no padrão de distribuição e na estrutura genética destas duas espécies com ênfase na costa brasileira. No primeiro capítulo, investigou-se a relação do ambiente marinho com o padrão de distribuição da franciscana. Para tanto, uma revisão e atualização da distribuição das áreas de manejo da franciscana (FMA), e dos limites dos hiatos, ao longo do Brasil foram realizadas. Análises de nicho ecológico sugerem que os hiatos fazem parte do nicho fundamental da franciscana que seriam, portanto, relativamente adequados para a espécie.No entanto, o estreitamento da plataforma continental parece ser o principal fator que explica a ausência da espécie nos hiatos e, inclusive poderia explicar a diferenciação genética entre algumas FMAs No segundo e terceiro capítulos, a relação entre similaridade genética e distâncias geográficas e ambientais foram investigadas para o golfinho-pintado-do- Atlântico em duas escalas: ao longo de praticamente toda distribuição e em uma escala mais restrita com ênfase no Brasil. Populações geneticamente distintas ao longo de toda distribuição da espécie foram identificadas com base em um marcador mitocondrial, que podem ser resultado Isolamento por Distância e Isolamento por Resistência, relacionados tanto com condições ambientais contemporâneas quanto do passado (Último Glacial Máximo). As análises de estrutura populacional do golfinho-pintado-do-Atlântico no Brasil, investigada mais profundamente com marcadores genômicos, indicam ao menos a existência de três populações (Brasil, Colômbia e Oceânica) suportanto, portanto, a hipótese de uma população isolada no sudeste do Brasil. De forma geral, conclui-se que o ambiente marinho e, principalmente, fatores como extensão da plataforma continental, batimetria e temperatura tem um papel fundamental para explicar o padrão de distribuição destas espécies no Brasil. Além disso, outros processos podem estar envolvidos na estruturação genética do golfinho-pintado-do-Atlântico e também da franciscana como, por exemplo, estrutura social, filopatria e a história evolutiva destas espécies. O maior desafio para conservação da franciscana é seu status de Criticamente Ameaçada no Brasil e, em relação ao golfinho-pintado-do-Atlântico é a deficiência de dados. Uma vez que ambas espécies ocorrem na porção mais desenvolvida do país, os resultados aqui obtidos têm impacto direto na conservação destas espécies, porque trazem informações que podem ser utilizadas em planos futuros de conservação e manejo. / Along Brazilian coastal waters, either franciscana and Atlantic spotted dolphins exhibited distributional gaps, which is most likely resulting from changes in the environmental features between 20 and 33°S. The former species, franciscana (Pontoporia blainvillei), is a river dolphin with restricted distribution from Brazil to Argentina, recorded mainly up to 50 m deep over the inner shelf. The second species, Atlantic spotted dolphin (Stenella frontalis), is a delphinine dolphin distributed across the Atlantic Ocean, being mainly recorded over the continental shelf. The distribution patterns that these species showed in Brazil have a direct influence on the morphology/ecology and genetic struture of both species. Different approaches were applied to address the main goal of this study, which was investigating the influence of marine environment in shaping the distribution pattern, as well as genetic strcuture of franciscana and Atlantic spotted dolphin with emphasis in the Brazilian coastal waters. In the first chapter, I investigated the franciscana distribution in Brazil using an ecological niche modeling approach. In order to do that, I performed a review of records of the species along Brazial and, updated the limits of franciscana management areas (FMAs) and distributional gaps. The results suggested that gaps are within franciscana fundamental niche and, therefore, both gaps would be suitable for franciscana. However, the narrow of continental shelf seems to be the main factor inhibiting the presence of franciscana in these areas. Furthermore, the narrowing of continental shelf play a role to explain the genetic differentiation among FMAs. In the second and third chapters, the relationship between genetic distances and geographic and environmental distances were investigated both in a restrict and a broad scale. I found genetically distinct populations 12 across Atlantic spotted dolphin distribution based on mtDNA, that are probably resulting of Isolation-by-Distance and Isolation-by-Resistance related both with contemporary and past conditions (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum). Furthermore, I investigated population struture using genomic markers (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, SNPs) across Western South Atlantic, Caribbean and Eastern Atlantic. The results suggested at least three different populations, and therefore, confirmed previous hypothesis of an isolated population in the southeastern Brazil. Overall, I concluded that marine envinronment, especially the extension of continental shelf, bathymetry and sea surface temperature, are the main factors that explaning the distribution pattern of franciscana and Atlantic spotted dolphin in Brazil. Besides that, other process such as, social structure and phylopatry, as well as biogeographical process might be investigated in further studies. Franciscana is considered “Critically endangered” in Brazil, and Atlantic spotted dolphin has not enough data to determine its conservation status. Since both species are recorded in the most developed region of the country with high anthropic pressure, my results could help in future management and conservation plans for both species in a regional scale.

Afin de quantifier les risques d’invasion chez le goujon Asiatique Pseudorasbora parva, un petit cyprinidae d’eau douce, j’ai tout d’abord testé une approche corrélative de modélisation de la niche climatique dans laquelle j’ai intégré un proxy relatif à la probabilité d’introduction. Cette approche s’appuie sur des assomptions relatives à l’adaptation des organismes aux conditions environnementales locales ou régionales. J’ai ensuite comparé la niche climatique mesurée de deux lignées génétiques majeures à la fois dans les aires natives et envahies. Puis dans un second temps, par une approche expérimentale j’ai comparé la réponse aux variations de température, des traits d’histoire de vie de populations vivant dans des zones climatiques contrastées. Finalement, je me suis intéressé à la dispersion des goujons Asiatiques afin de mieux comprendre si les populations situées sur les fronts d’invasions avaient des capacités de colonisation plus importante. J’ai donc quantifié et comparé le long d’un gradient d’invasion, le potentiel de dispersion des individus ainsi que des traits pouvant y être liés (activité et morphologie). L’étude des risques d’invasions a montré que de nombreuses zones – au delà des zones déjà envahies - étaient climatiquement favorables au goujon Asiatique. C’était le cas en particulier pour certaines zones comme l’Australie, l’Amérique du Sud et du Nord, indiquant que l’invasion de cette espèce pourrait encore s’étendre. Après avoir pris en compte les probabilités d’introduction, cette étude a montré que l’Amérique du Nord était la zone la plus à risques. Par contre, la niche climatique entre les différentes lignées dans les zones géographiques envahies est très similaire, ce qui laisse à penser qu’il n’y a pas de patrons d’adaptation locale chez cette espèce. Pour autant, la niche climatique observée dans la zone envahie est très différente de celle observée dans la zone native, ce qui suggère un shift climatique important au cours de l’invasion. Les réponses thermiques des traits d’histoire de vie du goujon Asiatique testés expérimentalement n’ont pas varié significativement entre les populations originaires de conditions climatiques continentales et maritime-tempérées. Par exemple, l’effort reproductif global des femelles n’a pas varié entre les températures testées (15-25°C) mais la stratégie temporelle de reproduction a beaucoup varié. L’effort reproductif était plus cours et plus intense à forte température, alors qu’il était plus étalé et avec des pics reproductifs moins forts à faible température. Pour ailleurs, il semble qu’il existe un gradient morphologique fort entre les populations situées à différentes distances du front d’invasion ce qui suggère une forte plasticité morphologique mais qui ne serait pas liée à la capacité de dispersion de ces populations. En effet, cette dernière ne variant pas significativement le long du gradient d’invasion. La capacité de dispersion serait principalement liée à la taille du corps de goujon Asiatique, les individus les plus grands ayant une probabilité plus élevée de disperser.Bien que les prédictions générales du modèle de niche puissent être affectées par de potentielles adaptations à l’échelle de la population ou de la lignée évolutive, les résultats suggèrent qu’une certaine incertitude liée à ces prédictions persiste puisque la distribution native ne prédisait que très mal la distribution actuelle dans les zones envahies. Par ailleurs, mes travaux expérimentaux à plus fine échelle suggèrent que cette espèce est extrêmement adaptable et tolère une large gamme environnementale, ce qui pourrait expliquer son caractère invasif. Les connaissances produites au cours de cette thèse constituent donc des ressources extrêmement pertinentes pour développer des stratégies de gestion visant à contrôler les invasions futures du goujon Asiatique. / In this thesis I set out to quantify the risk of invasion from the invasive freshwater fish, Pseudorasbora parva, at a global extent, using traditional correlative ecological niche modelling approaches with the integration of surrogate data representing introduction likelihood (Chapter I). These correlative approaches rely upon key assumptions relating to the presence or absence of local or regional adaptations, and so I subsequently tested for evidence of such adaptations in genetic lineages and in individual populations. This was achieved through analyzing climatic niche differentiation of key genetic lineages in the native and invasive ranges (Chapter II) and by conducting lab experiments comparing thermal responses of important life history traits in populations from contrasting climates (Chapter III). The initial risk assessment did not account for a key factor in invasions; namely, natural dispersal. Natural dispersal has been observed to be subject to selection in vanguard populations of invasive species, and adaptation of dispersal traits can infer additional invasive vigor, allowing the species to spread across the landscape quicker. For this reason, I quantified dispersal, activity and morphological differences, often associated with differential dispersal ability, in populations along a distance-gradient from an invasion front, in order to identify if P. parva is capable of such adaptations.The initial risk mapping study showed that large areas, beyond the current distribution of the species, are climatically suitable. These areas are mainly in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand, and constitute significant scope for spread and impact of this species. When introduction likelihood was included, N. America appears most at risk. I found no evidence to suggest that native genetic lineages represented local adaptations to their respective native climates - there was little or no differentiation of the lineages’ climatic niches in the invasive range. It was also apparent, from the niche comparisons, that the climatic niche in the invaded range constituted a significant shift, compared to the native range. The thermal responses of P. parva life history traits did not differ significantly between populations from a strongly seasonal continental climate and a mild temperate maritime climate. The overall reproductive output of females did not vary according to breeding season temperature, however, temporal reproductive strategy showed a strong response, with lower temperatures inducing a protracted breeding season and higher temperatures inducing rapid and intense reproductive output. The dispersal and morphology-related study identified a strong gradient of morphological change, corresponding with distance from invasion front. This demonstrates a high degree of plasticity in P. parva’s morphology in an invasion context, however this was not linked to either dispersal or activity levels, neither of which was significantly linked to distance from invasion front. Dispersal was best explained by body size, with larger fish more likely to disperse further.Whilst I found no evidence to suggest that the model predictions (Chapter I) were hampered by differentiation at either lineage or population levels, the findings of Chapter II do highlight the uncertainties surrounding the degree of conservatism in such predictions, mainly owing to the fact that past, native, distribution did not accurately predict the current invaded distribution. The results of Chapters II-IV show broad tolerances and great plasticity in P. parva, which likely underpin this species success as a pan-continental invader. The knowledge produced in this thesis provides a useful new resource for the development of management strategies for P. parva and could be usefully enhanced by the additional of analogous studies on native populations, which could help elucidate the source of the observed plasticity.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the vector for four infectious diseases of global concern – Yellow Fever, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zikavirus. Previous attempts to model the expansion of the vector habitat due to global climate change have rarely included characteristics related to the human populations on which this mosquito is dependent. The purpose of this research was to determine whether the inclusion of human population density improves model performance while creating risk maps that can be used to determine where humans are most likely to be exposed to the vector in the future. The resulting model demonstrated that the inclusion of human population density improves the predictive power for A. aegypti and should be considered during model development. Maps produced by the model were also suitable for identifying regions where human populations are most likely to experience increased risk. Finally, two areas at risk of expansion were highlighted as a case study in pairing risk mapping with evidence-based intervention strategies to identify sites that would benefit from mosquito-control efforts. In this case, a low-cost program of insecticide-treated covers for water storage containers would likely work well in both Minas Gerais, Brazil and Northwestern Province, Zambia to mitigate mosquito risk. This research demonstrates that human population characteristic not only improve model fit but also increase the extent to which risk maps are actionable by aiding in targeting interventions.