This thesis develops empirical econometric models of the private sector aggregate demand for real and financial assets in Kenya over the period 1973 to 1990. Single-equation error-correction models of the demand for money are estimated using systems cointegration methods developed by Johansen (1988). The models are found to be statistically stable functions throughout the period, and are capable of encompassing existing studies. Across a range of monetary aggregates, including a Divisia index aggregate for broad money, the models describe demand for money functions in which inflation and illegal foreign currency substitution are significant determinants of money holdings, and where the private sector adjusts rapidly to deviations from its stable longrun equilibrium real money demand. The demand for money is then integrated within a neo-classical model of asset demands, which examines the behaviour of the aggregate private sector asset portfolio in response to changes in relative prices between assets and to external shocks to the economy, principally the 1976-77 coffee boom. A variant of the Almost Ideal Demand System model developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) is estimated for a class of six assets: base money, banking system deposits, government securities, tradable capital, nontradable capital and inventories. The asset substitution model, which also takes an errorcorrection form, and which allows for credit rationing, generates results which are consistent with the earlier demand for money models, where private agents are also denied access to foreign-denominated assets. Using this model, the maintenance of policies of financial repression are shown to cause the private sector to offset inflationary shocks through the accumulation of real assets, principally in the form of non-tradable capital in the construction and property sectors. The evidence from the two models is used to analyze the fiscal effects of the inflation tax and financial repression measures. Policies of financial liberalization are shown to reduce the revenue maximizing rate of inflation (estimated to be 14% per annum) and the implicit tax on domestic holders of government liabilities. This dampens asset substitution in response to inflationary shocks and offsets the adverse effects of "construction-boom" investment on non-tradable capital prices.

This study develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of regular patterns in public financial behaviour, and applies that framework in an empirical assessment of budgetary policies in the United States and in the Netherlands. Its purpose and scope are threefold. First, it sheds theoretical light on economic considerations guiding public financial behaviour in a dynamic model of optimal taxation. The resulting idea, that it may be sensible to smooth taxation over time,is subsequently extended to a more general model of the public finances, which involves spending, taxation, debt and money creation in an effort to control the government budget. Second, using modern econometric methods the practical relevance of this model is illustrated with estimations for the United States and the Netherlands. Third, the model is sufficiently flexible to allow for a number of more institutional insights. In this respect the emphasis is placed on the Dutch economy and public finances. The thesis thus engages economic theory, econometric technique and institutional and macroeconomic background in a combined effort to understand and evaluate regular patterns in public financial behaviour. Its findings have implications for each of these three areas of economic interest.

No description available.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1991. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 151-164). / Microfiche. / ix, 164 leaves, bound 29 cm

This paper provides logit estimates of the probability that students will cheat in a specific class using randomized response and direct question data in two logit models. The results predict that there are several indicators of the probability of cheating occurring in a class. These factors include both student and instructor characteristics. They suggest several steps that can be taken to reduce the incidence of cheating which are relatively inexpensive yet potentially very successful. Further, this study explores the usefulness of the randomized response survey technique in obtaining information about sensitive behavior. Estimates indicate that there are steps that instructors can take to reduce the amount of cheating that takes place in their classes. This study suggests that using multiple versions of each exam, non-multiple choice exams and reducing the weight of each exam score toward the final course grade are all measures which will lower the incidence of academic dishonesty in a class. By allowing a respondent more anonymity the randomized response method encourages more truthful answers than direct questioning. In both models studied here, randomized response yields higher estimates of cheating. The randomized response estimates also appear to be more consistent with previous estimates of cheating than do the direct question estimates. This lends confidence to the conclusion that when surveying respondents about potentially sensitive or threatening information the direct question method yields inaccurate predictions of actual behavior and randomized response is a more appropriate methodology. / Graduation date: 1994

Traditional financial theories see capital structure as a result of mainly financial, tax and growth factors (Modigliani & Miller, 1958). But corporate governance theories (Jensen & Meckling, 1976) and business strategy theories (Barton & Gordon, 1988) suggest that ownership structure and ownership concentration, product diversification and asset specificity may also influence capital structure. Focusing on the examination of the determinants of capital structure in Chinese listed companies, this research goes beyond financial factors and considered business strategy and corporate governance approaches, and their impact on capital structure, in a transitioning Chinese context where institutions, expertise and regulatory processes are different to, but converging on, Western approaches. A panel data set of 1,098 Chinese listed companies for the period of 1991 to 2000 was collected from published sources, and conventional and innovative econometric methodologies were used to model a range of relationships between capital structure and its financial and non-financial determinants. The statistical approaches used in this study included Ordinary Least Squares Model and also Linear Mixed Model, which is a powerful tool to examine panel data where independence of explanatory variables is not assumed. The analysis also involved Hox’s model building procedures to measure model fit. The capital structure of listed companies in both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Securities Exchange is positively related to a firm’s tax rate, growth and capital intensity and negatively related to a firm’s profit and size. Other financial factors such as tangibility, risk and duration are non-significant. The capital structure of listed companies, particularly in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, is positively related to product diversification and negatively related to asset specificity. The capital structure of listed companies in the Shanghai Securities Exchange is positively related to government ownership and ownership concentration of the largest shareholder and negatively related to legal person ownership and ownership concentration of the ten largest shareholders. The data and modelling support financial and non-financial determinants of capital structure. In particular, information asymmetry, business diversity and asset specificity have a significant impact on capital structure. In addition the empirical work in the study supports agency cost explanations of debt and equity. Finally the research demonstrates that the two main financial markets in China, Shenzhen and Shanghai, have operated differently but are converging towards a common norm. The research contributes to the general field of capital structure and provides valuable insights into the nature of the Chinese firm and the evolution of the Chinese financial system. / Doctor of Philosophy

Marine reserves have increasingly been recognised for their potential to address the pervasive problem of unsustainable harvest of fisheries worldwide. Biologists advocate the benefits of increased spawning biomass, larger modal sizes and greater densities of fish within marine reserves, and the possibility of spillover to adjacent fishable areas. Bioeconomic studies, however, find that pay-offs from stand-alone marine reserves rarely compete with sustainable yield management schemes, but that they can be beneficial when stocks are heavily exploited. Most of these bioeconomic models are analytical and deterministic in nature, and therefore ignore the redistribution of effort in response to closure and the inherent uncertainty of the marine environment. We present a bioeconomic analysis of a network of no-take areas around Stewart Island in New Zealand applied to the shellfish species paua (abalone) that incorporates both predicted redistribution and reduction in effort, as well as stochastic recruitment. A nested logit model is applied to spatially recorded catch and effort data by the Ministry of Fisheries between 1998 and 2003 to capture the two level decision-making process of divers. On any given day, divers decide whether to go diving at all, and if so, which of the 16 statistical areas around Stewart Island to visit. Weather conditions, spatially varying levels of catch per unit of effort and distance are used as explanatory variables to select areas for closure according to the �least economic impact� in terms of loss of diving trips. An age-structured biological model is developed with parameters specifically applied to paua stocks around Stewart Island. Virgin paua biomass as of 1974 is estimated on the basis of growth, survival, post-larval recruitment and egg production in the absence of fishing. Historic catch rates are then applied to find overall and area-specific levels of exploitation rates, spawning biomass, egg production, legal biomass and numbers of paua. In a final step, the economic model is linked to the biological model to simulate the imposition of no-take areas when taking account of the initial disproportional shift of harvest to fished areas in the first year, and the increase in overall pressure on legal biomass in the years thereafter. We contribute to the marine reserve debate by showing that in the very long run, the overall yield under closure of a relatively small area approaches and even slightly surpasses the yield under no closure for an assumed spillover gradient of 40% despite the redistribution of effort. The most important benefits of marine reserves emerge when stochastic recruitment is included in the recruitment function. In practice, predictions about the stock status and the impact of different harvest levels become much more difficult when acknowledging the inherent variability of the marine environment. The likelihood of stock collapse depends on the assumed value of two recruitment parameters, which highlights the effects of parameter uncertainty and emphasizes the role of marine reserves for population persistence. We also show that under uncertainty average yields under a management regime of a network of no-take areas in addition to the quota system can equal yields under no closure for an assumed spillover gradient of 40%, despite the increased pressure on areas adjacent to the closed areas. Our findings have significant implications for the management of the paua fishery at Stewart Island. For a heterogeneously abundant species, such as paua, spatial management in addition to quota limits could be vital in ensuring the long-term sustainability of the fishery given the inherent variability of the marine environment.

Traditional financial theories see capital structure as a result of mainly financial, tax and growth factors (Modigliani & Miller, 1958). But corporate governance theories (Jensen & Meckling, 1976) and business strategy theories (Barton & Gordon, 1988) suggest that ownership structure and ownership concentration, product diversification and asset specificity may also influence capital structure. Focusing on the examination of the determinants of capital structure in Chinese listed companies, this research goes beyond financial factors and considered business strategy and corporate governance approaches, and their impact on capital structure, in a transitioning Chinese context where institutions, expertise and regulatory processes are different to, but converging on, Western approaches. A panel data set of 1,098 Chinese listed companies for the period of 1991 to 2000 was collected from published sources, and conventional and innovative econometric methodologies were used to model a range of relationships between capital structure and its financial and non-financial determinants. The statistical approaches used in this study included Ordinary Least Squares Model and also Linear Mixed Model, which is a powerful tool to examine panel data where independence of explanatory variables is not assumed. The analysis also involved Hox’s model building procedures to measure model fit. The capital structure of listed companies in both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Securities Exchange is positively related to a firm’s tax rate, growth and capital intensity and negatively related to a firm’s profit and size. Other financial factors such as tangibility, risk and duration are non-significant. The capital structure of listed companies, particularly in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, is positively related to product diversification and negatively related to asset specificity. The capital structure of listed companies in the Shanghai Securities Exchange is positively related to government ownership and ownership concentration of the largest shareholder and negatively related to legal person ownership and ownership concentration of the ten largest shareholders. The data and modelling support financial and non-financial determinants of capital structure. In particular, information asymmetry, business diversity and asset specificity have a significant impact on capital structure. In addition the empirical work in the study supports agency cost explanations of debt and equity. Finally the research demonstrates that the two main financial markets in China, Shenzhen and Shanghai, have operated differently but are converging towards a common norm. The research contributes to the general field of capital structure and provides valuable insights into the nature of the Chinese firm and the evolution of the Chinese financial system. / Doctor of Philosophy

The Dirty Faces game requires players to perform iterative reasoning in order to arrive at equilibrium play. The game is dominance solvable with a unique equilibrium when it is correctly specified. The particular payoff structure has significant implication on whether the reasoning process leads to equilibrium play. This paper illustrates that the traditional specification - as used by Weber (2001) - leads to multiple equilibria and the game loses its dominance solvability. We modify the payoff structure and restore uniqueness. The resulting game, which is dominance solvable, is implemented in an experiment to test the depth of iterative reasoning in humans. Our data analysis suggests that some deviation from equilibrium play is due to limited depth of iteration. Additionally, we find evidence that the lack of confidence in other players’ iterative abilities also induces deviations from equilibrium play. / Thesis (M.Ec.) -- School of Economics, 2007

Diss. Uppsala : Uppsala universitet, 2007.