The purpose of this paper is to observe and analyze whether the value system and political structure of a nation, gauged through its legal configuration, impacts its response to IMF debt and consequently impacts its GDP growth rates. This paper also analyzes whether involvement in the fund through a loan relationship affects the country’s real interest rate, inflation, exchange rate and import and export volume and whether this relationship is causal in that we can explain a nation’s loan relationship with the Fund through observance of the aforementioned variables. In this paper, we observe 34 emerging markets as defined by Dow Jones in 2010. The general consensus of the literature is that participation in IMF loan programs retards the economic growth of developing economies. In light of this, the contribution of this paper is to illustrate that some of the slowed growth experienced by these countries seeking out IMF debt is explained by their value system and general attitude toward debt. To carry out a comparable analysis we segment and group the emerging markets based on their current credit status with the IMF (as of Oct 2012) as well as by the origin of their legal system, a measure we use to assess their value system with respect to creditor and debt protection laws. We will observe the growth rates that these countries’ economies experience categorized by their involvement with the Fund, the amount of their loan and whether they fully repaid their debt or are currently indebted to the Fund. We will also identify the size and frequency of the loan in order to observe the impact that these variables have on the delayed growth rates that they experience. Furthermore, we will examine the impact on their GDP growth rates, imports of goods and services, inflation, exchange rates and real interest rates. We expect to find that there is not a generic relationship between involvement in a loan relationship with the Fund and GDP growth rates. In other words, having a loan from the IMF does not directly result in delayed growth rates, contrary to popular belief. However, we hypothesize that the legal system of the borrowing countries is an explanatory variable in determining their growth rates, alongside their loan relationship with the Fund. In addition, we expect to find empirical evidence that supports the claim that inappropriate and unmonitored involvement in the Fund can adversely affect emerging markets. Inappropriate and unmonitored involved is measured in this paper by the borrowers creditor and debtor protection laws. We aim to expand the current line of literature by analyzing whether a decline in economic growth prior to completion of an IMF loan program is a generic attribute of all participants or whether these traits are more pronounced in countries with a more unmonitored business and economic legal system.

Die Darstellung der Beschäftigungswirkungen des Luftverkehrs spielt im politischen Leben in vielen westlichen Industrieländern eine große Rolle. Verbände der Luftverkehrswirtschaft versuchen, mit Gutachten die Bedeutung ihrer Branche für Wachstum und Beschäftigung zu untermauern. Viele dieser Gutachten halten keinen wissenschaftlichen Ansprüchen stand. Bereits 1992 hatte in den USA die amerikanische Luftverkehrsbehörde FAA die Qualitätsprobleme solcher Gutachten erkannt und bemängelt und Grundsätze für korrektes Arbeiten aufgestellt. In Österreich hat nun ein Streit um den weiteren Ausbau des Flughafens Wien zur Anfertigung mehrerer Interessentengutachten geführt. Diese Gutachten werden in der vorliegenden Studie evaluiert. Es zeigt sich, dass wissenschaftliche Standards nicht eingehalten werden. Die Regierung selbst verwendet Angaben aus solchen Gutachten in ihren Publikationen und tauscht stillschweigend Daten, die sich später als unhaltbar erweisen, gegen andere aus. Vergleiche mit Studienergebnissen von OECD, EU und Weltbank belegen große Differenzen. / Growth and Job-effects of Aviation play a crucial role in many western industrialized countries. Consortiums and federations of the aviation industry try to proof with assessments and expert opinions how important their sector is. However many of those studies do not have scientific quality. Already 1992 the American Federal Aviation Authority FAA realized problems and issued guidelines for acceptable reports. In Austria the planned enlargement of Vienna airport led to the production of several studies. This is the reason for the present paper. The most recent Austrian aviation studies, especially one by the Austrian IWI, are being analysed. It proves that the Austrian Aviation reports are not consistent with the standards set by the FAA guidelines. They contain exaggerated figures and omit critical aspects. Comparisons with studies of OECD, EU or Worldbank show the differences and imbalances.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The high rate of poverty in Nigeria has reached alarming proportions. Despite average economic growth rates of 6 percent between 2004 and 2010, the incidence of poverty has remained high, increasing from 54.7 percent in 2004 to 60.9 percent in 2010 (Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). A drop in the poverty rate to an average of 56.1 percent between 1999 and 2007 could be attributed to the measures taken by the civilian government against administrative corruption, increased domestic and foreign investments and some implemented agricultural policies. These efforts were thwarted by subsequent administrations with devastating effects for the Nigerian population. It is in recognition of this that this study examines the political economy of poverty in Nigeria; analyses the variations in poverty and inequality across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria; examines the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria over the period 2010 - 2013; investigates the reasons for the low rates of poverty reduction in Nigeria and analyses whether economic growth in Nigeria was pro-poor.

We construct a new dataset of inequality in educational attainment by age and sex at the global level. The comparison of education inequality measures across age groups allows us to assess the effect of inter-generational education attainment trends on economic growth. Our results indicate that countries which are able to reduce the inequality of educational attainment of young cohorts over time tend to have higher growth rates of income per capita. This effect is additional to that implied by the accumulation of human capital and implies that policies aiming at providing broad-based access to schooling have returns in terms of economic growth that go beyond those achieved by increasing average educational attainment. / Series: WWWforEurope

The growth literature has put much emphasis on explaining the role of physical capital, human capital, innovation and institutions on economic growth. However, sociologists raise the importance of understanding the structures of social relationships because they help shape economic actions. It is not until recently that the concept of ‘’social capital’’ has been at the forefront of economic debates. While the vast majority of studies have shown that social capital is unconditionally good for economic growth, several studies argue that the impact of social capital depends on a country’s level of development. Therefore, an OLS regression is estimated using a panel data from 53 developed and developing countries to analyze the relationship between social capital, proxied by trust and GDP/capita growth. The results suggest that social capital is significant and positively related to GDP/capita growth in developed and developing countries. However, the relationship between social capital and GDP/capita growth is much stronger in developing countries. Policymakers can use this valuable insight while making growth-strategy decisions, especially in developing countries.

Na década de 1990, emergiu uma numerosa literatura abordando os efeitos da confiança interpessoal no crescimento econômico dos países. Teoricamente, a confiança afeta o crescimento econômico por afetar as decisões que envolvem incerteza acerca das ações futuras de outros agentes, como: investimentos, contratações de trabalhadores, inovação, dentre outras. Este trabalho utiliza a metodologia corrente nesta literatura, avaliando o papel da confiança no crescimento econômico em um cross section de países para três períodos, utilizando informações, principalmente, das Penn World Tables, World Values Survey e dados de educação da UNESCO. Aplicando a técnica de least trimmed squares é avaliada a robustez da variável confiança quando se retiram observações aberrantes. Encontra-se que a confiança tem um efeito considerável no crescimento econômico, mesmo quando outliers são removidos. Também são realizados exercícios para a correção de possíveis problemas de endogeneidade da variável de confiança. Além disso, o trabalho analisa os determinantes da confiança individual, utilizando um modelo probit cujas variáveis explicativas são: renda, escolaridade, idade, país, religião, dentre outras. Este exercício também é feito para analisar o caso brasileiro. Encontra-se que a confiança é uma variável que depende mais da sociedade ou do grupo que das características individuais e, para o caso brasileiro, verificou-se que independentemente de gênero, escolaridade ou renda, as pessoas não confiam nos demais. / In the 1990\'s a large number of works came out investigating the effects of interpersonal trust on the economic growth of countries. Theoretically, trust affects economic growth by affecting all decisions that involve uncertainty on future actions of other agents, such as: investments, hire of employees, innovation, among others. This study uses the current literature methodology, tackling the trust importance for economic growth on a cross section of countries for three periods, using informations mainly from the Penn World Tables, World Values Survey and educational data from UNESCO. Applying the least trimmed squares technique it is evaluated the robustness of the trust variable when influential observations are excluded. It is found a remarkable estimated effect of trust on economic growth, even when outliers are removed. Also some studies are made in order to correct for possible endogeneity problems of the trust variable. Moreover, the work analyses the determinants of individual trust, using a probit model with the regressors: income, schooling, age, country, religion, among others. This analysis is also applied for the brazilian case. It is found that trust depends more on the society or group than on individual characteristics and, for the brazilian case, it was observed that, no matter which gender, schooling or income level the person belongs to, people do not trust each other.

Este trabalho se compõe de duas principais frentes de investigação, abordadas por meio de duas vias metodológicas. São investigados os impactos das instituições, especialmente das instituições financeiras, sobre a distribuição de renda no Brasil e os impactos subsequentes da distribuição de renda sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro, ambos desde a abertura econômica e financeira dos anos 90, até os dias atuais. E são utilizadas como metodologias de abordagem, uma via histórico-institucional num primeiro momento e uma via analítico-teórica, num segundo momento. As principais categorias estudadas incluem os condicionantes históricos de uma estrutura distributiva desigual, a consolidação do setor financeiro no Brasil, as relações entre este último, o Estado e a sociedade, a hipótese de uma nova classe média e a proposta de um modelo que contempla parte desses aspectos, procurando contribuir para melhor lidar com eles. Conclui-se pela existência de uma desigualdade estrutural na distribuição de renda (apesar de recentemente atenuada), pela permanência cultural de um elemento de orientação pelo status e emulação de padrões de consumo, pelos riscos significativos de uma trajetória de endividamento dos trabalhadores e pelos privilégios assegurados ao setor financeiro através de sua adequação ao conceito sociológico de \"campo\". Finalmente, constatou-se que o movimento de melhoria do salário mínimo e formalização da mão-de-obra, nos últimos anos, constitui condição necessária, mas ainda não suficiente para assegurar a sustentação do crescimento econômico com progressivo avanço na estrutura funcional de distribuição de renda no país. / This work is composed by two main fronts of investigation, which are approached by means of two methodological perspectives. It investigates the impact of the institutions, especially the financial institutions, on income distribution in Brazil, as well as the subsequent impact of income distribution on Brazilian economic growth, from the economic and financial opening in 1990\'s up to the present time. The methodological perspectives used to address these questions are, first, historical-institutional, and then, analytic-theoretical. The main issues studied are: the historical restrictions of an unequal income distribution, the consolidation of a financial sector in Brazil, the relationship between the latter and the Estate and society and the hypothesis that a new middle class emerged in Brazil recently. Finally, I construct a theoretical model to help us analyse aspects of these issues. This model also allows us to derive policy prescriptions aimed at improving the negative aspects of income inequality and low economic growth. The conclusion we reached points to the existence of a structural income inequality (although recently mitigated), to the cultural persistence of a status orientation element and the emulation of consumption patterns, to the considerable risk of adebt path of the working-class and to the privileges secured to the financial sector (through its adequation to the sociological concept of \"field\" ). Finally we note that the recent improvement in minimum wage and in the formalization of employment constitute a necessary yet not sufficient condition to ensure long lasting economic growth combined with gradual advance in the functional structure of income distribution in the country.

A histórica desconsideração da variável ambiental dentro da concepção teórica e dos modelos de crescimento econômico revela um posicionamento ideológico muito claro: a resistência na aceitação do ambiente como fator limitante ou mesmo como elemento estratégico do ponto de vista da riqueza de uma nação ou região. Para além das questões mais frequentemente debatidas, que associam os elementos do ambiente a meros insumos necessários aos processos produtivos, a consideração de conceitos não usuais no arcabouço teórico da economia tradicional, como serviços ecossistêmicos, resiliência, entropia e histerese, teria condições de ampliar e relativizar a interpretação de uma série de premissas e dogmas da ciência econômica tradicional. O conceito de capital natural, neste sentido, apresenta-se como fundamental e estratégico, uma vez que permite acomodar toda a complexidade inerente à dimensão ambiental e relacioná-la com o sistema socioeconômico, adequando e balizando o enquadramento da questão da sustentabilidade. Ainda, o presente trabalho parte da definição fundamentada de que ambos os sistemas - econômico e ambiental - são essencialmente complexos e, que os efeitos das relações entre os mesmos não são triviais e possuem altos níveis de incerteza associados à sua dinâmica. Dentro dessa orientação, o trabalho se propôs a realizar uma reflexão sobre a sustentabilidade sob a ótica dos sistemas complexos, por meio de uma revisão bibliográfica crítica e de um exercício de modelagem baseada em agentes para a simulação do crescimento econômico considerando a variável ambiental. As análises realizadas indicam que a incorporação de novos conceitos oriundos dos sistemas complexos poderiam estabelecer um novo suporte para a análise de políticas macroeconômicas de crescimento, da sustentabilidade e, em última instância, contribuir com o fortalecimento de premissas básicas da economia ecológica. / The historical disregard of the environmental issue in the theoretical conception and the economic growth models reveals a clear ideological positioning: the resistance to accept the environment as a limiting factor or as a strategic element from the point of view of nations or regions wealth. Beyond the frequently debated questions, that associate the environmental elements to simple inputs that are necessary to productive processes, the consideration of the non-usual concepts of the traditional economic theory, like ecosystem services, resilience, entropy and hysteresis, would give better conditions to expand and relativize the interpretation of a series of premises and traditional economy dogmas. The natural capital concept, in this sense, represents itself as an essential and strategic concept, since it permits to accommodate all the complexity inherent to the environmental dimension and associate it to the economic system, fitting and marking out the sustainability framework. Still, the present work starts from the definition that both of the systems environmental and economic are essentially complex and that the effects of the relations between them are not trivial and have high levels of uncertainty associated to its dynamic. Whitin this orientation, this work proposed to realize a reflection about sustainability under the complex systems perspective, through a critical literature review and a multi-agent based modeling exercise, to simulate economic growth considering the environmental dimension. This analyses indicated that the incorporation of new concepts, from the complex systems theory, could establish a new support for the macroeconomic policies analysis, as well for the sustainability policies and, ultimately, to contribute to the strengthening of the basic ecological economy premises.

Na literatura econômica, há um grande interesse no estudo sobre a dinâmica do crescimento das cidades e os fatores que a influenciam. A motivação principal dos pesquisadores é verificar por que algumas cidades crescem enquanto outras permanecem estagnadas, e quais são os fatores que contribuem para o fluxo de migração de fatores de produção para os grandes centros urbanos. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho procura avaliar o impacto da infraestrutura pública sobre o crescimento econômico das cidades brasileiras - mensurado por meio do crescimento populacional e salarial. O acesso à infraestrutura é um dos principais fatores que determinam o desenvolvimento econômico e é considerado um dos maiores entraves para a o crescimento econômico do Brasil. Boa infraestrutura pode garantir serviços básicos, bem como externalidades positivas sobre a saúde, meio ambiente, produtividade e possibilidades de investimento. Os dados dos Censos Demográficos, utilizados nesta dissertação, mostraram que o país experimentou um forte crescimento no acesso à infraestrutura no período de 1970 a 2010. O acesso ao bastecimento de água, a coleta de esgoto, energia elétrica e a telefonia mais do que dobrou no período analisado. Tendo em vista que os municípios brasileiros são suscetíveis a diversas formas de interações entre si, é de se esperar que existam efeitos espaciais entre estes. Portanto, para analisar os impactos da infraestrutura sobre o crescimento econômico regional, foi utilizada a metodologia econométrica de dados em painel com dependência espacial. Como esperado, os resultados mostram que as variáveis de infraestrutura afetam positivamente o crescimento econômico regional, sendo o acesso à energia elétrica e a telefonia as variáveis com maior impacto. / In the economic literature there is a great interest in the study of the dynamics of the growth of cities and the factors that influence it. The main attraction of the researchers is to check why some cities grow while others remain stagnant, and what are the factors that contribute to the migration flow of production factors to the major urban centers. In this sense, this paper seeks to assess the impact of public infrastructure on economic growth of Brazilian cities - measured by population and wage growth. Since the access to infrastructure is one of the main factors determining economic development and is considered one of the greatest barriers to the economic growth in Brazil. Good infrastructure can guarantee basic services, as well as positive externalities in health, environment, productivity and possibilities for investment. Data from Demographic Censuses, used in this paper, showed that the country experienced strong growth in the access to infrastructure in the period of 1970-2010. The access to water supply, the sewage collection, electricity and telecommunications more than doubled during the period analyzed. In order to measure the effects of infrastructure on regional economic growth, we used the econometric analysis of panel data with spatial dependence, since the Brazilians\' municipalities are susceptible to diverse forms of interactions among them, is to be expected that exist spatial effects between them. As expected, the results show that the infrastructure variables positively affect the variation of income, being the access to electricity and telecommunications the variables with the greatest impact.

Este trabalho é composto por três artigos que visam abordar pontos pouco explorados na literatura de economia agrícola brasileira sobre produtividade total dos fatores (PTF), buscando abordar também o crescimento do setor e seu comportamento nos ciclos econômicos. Após uma breve introdução do tema no primeiro capítulo, analisa-se no segundo capítulo, o crescimento da agricultura brasileira no período 1975 a 2005 por meio de um modelo de fronteira estocástica, com o intuito de decompor a PTF brasileira para cada estado. Os resultados do estudo mostram que o crescimento da PTF foi heterogêneo entre os estados e sugerem que a expansão da agricultura nas regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste foi possível devido à influência do progresso técnico na PTF e que mesmo os estados tradicionais na agricultura apresentaram crescimento da PTF elevado. O segundo artigo, no terceiro capítulo, buscou analisar os impactos dinâmicos dos fatores de produção capital, trabalho e terras no produto agrícola fazendo uso de uma estratégia empírica baseada em um modelo econométrico VAR estrutural para o período compreendido entre 1972 e 2009. Os resultados demonstram que o fator de produção que tem maior influência sobre o produto é o capital. Os resultados indicam, ainda, que à medida que a PTF cresce o trabalho diminui e que, portanto, a modernização da agricultura trouxe inovações tecnológicas poupadoras de mão de obra. A decomposição histórica da variância dos erros de previsão indicou que durante as décadas de 1970 e 1980 o produto agrícola foi maior que o esperado. Isto só foi possível devido aos elevados ganhos de produtividade ocorridos à época. Nas décadas posteriores, embora a produtividade continuasse a elevar o potencial de crescimento do produto, fatores como baixo investimento e diminuição da expansão da fronteira agrícola limitaram o crescimento da produção, que ficou abaixo do previsto pelo modelo. No terceiro artigo, quarto capítulo, buscou-se analisar o papel da PTF e dos fatores de produção no contexto de ciclos econômicos reais, separando choques de produtividade devidos a fatores climáticos ou conjunturais entre outros de choques devidos à mudança de tecnologia com base em um modelo de Small Open Economy fundamentado na teoria RBC e fazendo uso de técnicas de calibração e econometria bayesiana ajustado para o período compreendido entre 1972 e 2009. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que um melhor aproveitamento dos ciclos de alta do produto poderia ter sido alcançado caso os investimentos no setor agrícola tivessem sido maiores ao longo do período em análise. / This work is organized in three articles analyzing some aspects that are not well explored in the Brazilian agricultural economics literature on Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The first article, in the second chapter, analyzes the growth of Brazilian agriculture in the period 1975 to 2005, using a stochastic frontier model to decompose TFP for each Brazilian state. The study results suggest that the expansion of agriculture in the North and Midwest Brazilian states were possible due to the influence of technical progress. The TFP in the traditional agricultural states also showed significant TFP growth. The second article, in the third chapter, analyzes the dynamic impacts of the production factors capital, labor and lands as well as TFP in agriculture economic growth, using a strategy based on a structural VAR empirical model for the period 1972 to 2009. The results show that the production factor which has greater influence on the agriculture economic growth is the capital. The results also suggests that as the TFP increases labor decreases, and that the modernization of agriculture has brought technological innovations that uses less labor in the production process. The variance historical decomposition of forecast errors indicated that during the 1970´s and 1980´s agricultural product was larger than expected. This was only possible due to the high gains productivity occurred at that time. During the 1990´s and 2000´s, while productivity continued to increase the potential output growth, factors such as low investment and decreasing land expansion limited the agricultural economic growth, which was lower than expected. In the third article, fourth chapter, we examine the role of TFP in the context of real business cycles, the impacts of two different productivity shocks, shocks due to supply variations and productivity shocks arising from technological advances or shocks Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The model is based on a RBC Small Open Economy Model. The model estimation, based in the period 1972 to 2009, was made using calibration techniques in addition with Bayesian econometric techniques. The results show that TFP shocks could have had more influence on product cycles, if the investment in the period had been higher.