O presente estudo analisa a evolução, o comportamento e a natureza cíclica do crédito brasileiro no período compreendido entre janeiro de 2003 e dezembro de 2013. Mais especificamente, verifica se a postura da condução da oferta de crédito público, de fato, destoou daquela apresentada pelo crédito privado, especialmente após o advento da crise financeira de 2007/2008. Para tanto, se vale de uma revisão das literaturas nacional e internacional e realiza um resgate histórico dos principais bancos públicos do Brasil – etapa que se dá concomitantemente à análise da evolução do desempenho dos mesmos nos últimos tempos. Com isso, além de se mostrar a performance recente destas instituições, demonstra-se também que, a despeito da redução da participação das instituições bancárias públicas na década de 1990, estas foram decisivas para a melhor reação da economia brasileira frente aos efeitos adversos da crise de 2007/2008 – o que fornece mais indícios da validade do problema de pesquisa e traz, por conseguinte, mais força à hipótese de trabalho. Na sequência, são discutidos alguns aspectos metodológicos no intuito de identificar qual a modelagem econométrica seria a mais adequada para descobrir como os bancos públicos e privados se comportaram no período abordado e, mais especificamente, como eles reagiram após o advento da crise financeira dos subprimes – procurou-se também, uma abordagem que, especificamente, ajudasse a desvendar a natureza cíclica dos créditos privado e público. Nesse sentido, optou-se pela modelagem econométrica denominada de Modelos Estruturais de Espaço de Estados, também conhecida como Modelos de Componentes não-observáveis. Através desta metodologia, foi possível verificar, de maneira endógena, se existiram e quando ocorreram outliers e quebras estruturais nas séries de dados referentes à evolução do crédito brasileiro no período. Os resultados obtidos vieram a corroborar a hipótese de trabalho, mostrando a existência de uma relação negativa e estatisticamente significante entre as variáveis representativas do produto interno bruto e as do crédito público e do crédito total. Dessa maneira, chegou-se à conclusão de que, realmente, o crédito público mostrou características contra-cíclicas no período de 2003 a 2013, especialmente após o ano de 2008 – fato que é reforçado pela ocorrência de quebras de nível positivas neste ano. / This study analyses the evolution, behavior and cyclical nature of the Brazilian credit supply in the period from January 2003 to December 2013. Specifically, it checks if the posture of public credit supply’s conduction has differed, indeed, from the one presented by the private credit, particularly after the financial crisis of 2007-08. For this purpose, this paper reviews national and international literature and performs a historical examination of the main Brazilian state-owned banks – which is presented concomitantly to the analysis of their lately performance’s evolution. Therewith, besides showing these institutions’ recent performance, it also demonstrates that, in spite of the reduction in the state-owned banks participation in the 1990s, these were decisive to the better reaction of the Brazilian economy in the face of the adverse effects of the 2007-08 crisis – which provides further evidence of the research question validity and brings, therefore, strenght to the working hypothesis. In the next step, some methodological aspects are discussed aiming to identify which would be the most appropriate econometric modelling to find out how the public and private banks behaved in this period, and specifically, to discover how they reacted after the subprime financial crisis – in this point, a research was made in order to identify an approach that, particularly, helped to reveal the cyclical nature of private and public credits. It was decided to use an econometric approach called Space-State Modelling, also known as Unobservable Component Models. Through this methodology, it was possible to check, in an endogenous way, if there were – and when they occurred – outliers and structural breaks in the data series referring to the Brazilian credit evolution in the period. The results came to support the working hypothesis, showing the existence of a negative and statistically significant relationship between the variables representing the gross domestic product and the ones representing public credit and the total credit. Thus, it was concluded that the public credit, indeed, showed counter-cyclical characteristics in the period between 2003 and 2013, especially after 2008 – a fact that is reinforced by the occurrence of positive level breaks in this year.

O presente estudo analisa a evolução, o comportamento e a natureza cíclica do crédito brasileiro no período compreendido entre janeiro de 2003 e dezembro de 2013. Mais especificamente, verifica se a postura da condução da oferta de crédito público, de fato, destoou daquela apresentada pelo crédito privado, especialmente após o advento da crise financeira de 2007/2008. Para tanto, se vale de uma revisão das literaturas nacional e internacional e realiza um resgate histórico dos principais bancos públicos do Brasil – etapa que se dá concomitantemente à análise da evolução do desempenho dos mesmos nos últimos tempos. Com isso, além de se mostrar a performance recente destas instituições, demonstra-se também que, a despeito da redução da participação das instituições bancárias públicas na década de 1990, estas foram decisivas para a melhor reação da economia brasileira frente aos efeitos adversos da crise de 2007/2008 – o que fornece mais indícios da validade do problema de pesquisa e traz, por conseguinte, mais força à hipótese de trabalho. Na sequência, são discutidos alguns aspectos metodológicos no intuito de identificar qual a modelagem econométrica seria a mais adequada para descobrir como os bancos públicos e privados se comportaram no período abordado e, mais especificamente, como eles reagiram após o advento da crise financeira dos subprimes – procurou-se também, uma abordagem que, especificamente, ajudasse a desvendar a natureza cíclica dos créditos privado e público. Nesse sentido, optou-se pela modelagem econométrica denominada de Modelos Estruturais de Espaço de Estados, também conhecida como Modelos de Componentes não-observáveis. Através desta metodologia, foi possível verificar, de maneira endógena, se existiram e quando ocorreram outliers e quebras estruturais nas séries de dados referentes à evolução do crédito brasileiro no período. Os resultados obtidos vieram a corroborar a hipótese de trabalho, mostrando a existência de uma relação negativa e estatisticamente significante entre as variáveis representativas do produto interno bruto e as do crédito público e do crédito total. Dessa maneira, chegou-se à conclusão de que, realmente, o crédito público mostrou características contra-cíclicas no período de 2003 a 2013, especialmente após o ano de 2008 – fato que é reforçado pela ocorrência de quebras de nível positivas neste ano. / This study analyses the evolution, behavior and cyclical nature of the Brazilian credit supply in the period from January 2003 to December 2013. Specifically, it checks if the posture of public credit supply’s conduction has differed, indeed, from the one presented by the private credit, particularly after the financial crisis of 2007-08. For this purpose, this paper reviews national and international literature and performs a historical examination of the main Brazilian state-owned banks – which is presented concomitantly to the analysis of their lately performance’s evolution. Therewith, besides showing these institutions’ recent performance, it also demonstrates that, in spite of the reduction in the state-owned banks participation in the 1990s, these were decisive to the better reaction of the Brazilian economy in the face of the adverse effects of the 2007-08 crisis – which provides further evidence of the research question validity and brings, therefore, strenght to the working hypothesis. In the next step, some methodological aspects are discussed aiming to identify which would be the most appropriate econometric modelling to find out how the public and private banks behaved in this period, and specifically, to discover how they reacted after the subprime financial crisis – in this point, a research was made in order to identify an approach that, particularly, helped to reveal the cyclical nature of private and public credits. It was decided to use an econometric approach called Space-State Modelling, also known as Unobservable Component Models. Through this methodology, it was possible to check, in an endogenous way, if there were – and when they occurred – outliers and structural breaks in the data series referring to the Brazilian credit evolution in the period. The results came to support the working hypothesis, showing the existence of a negative and statistically significant relationship between the variables representing the gross domestic product and the ones representing public credit and the total credit. Thus, it was concluded that the public credit, indeed, showed counter-cyclical characteristics in the period between 2003 and 2013, especially after 2008 – a fact that is reinforced by the occurrence of positive level breaks in this year.

O presente estudo analisa a evolução, o comportamento e a natureza cíclica do crédito brasileiro no período compreendido entre janeiro de 2003 e dezembro de 2013. Mais especificamente, verifica se a postura da condução da oferta de crédito público, de fato, destoou daquela apresentada pelo crédito privado, especialmente após o advento da crise financeira de 2007/2008. Para tanto, se vale de uma revisão das literaturas nacional e internacional e realiza um resgate histórico dos principais bancos públicos do Brasil – etapa que se dá concomitantemente à análise da evolução do desempenho dos mesmos nos últimos tempos. Com isso, além de se mostrar a performance recente destas instituições, demonstra-se também que, a despeito da redução da participação das instituições bancárias públicas na década de 1990, estas foram decisivas para a melhor reação da economia brasileira frente aos efeitos adversos da crise de 2007/2008 – o que fornece mais indícios da validade do problema de pesquisa e traz, por conseguinte, mais força à hipótese de trabalho. Na sequência, são discutidos alguns aspectos metodológicos no intuito de identificar qual a modelagem econométrica seria a mais adequada para descobrir como os bancos públicos e privados se comportaram no período abordado e, mais especificamente, como eles reagiram após o advento da crise financeira dos subprimes – procurou-se também, uma abordagem que, especificamente, ajudasse a desvendar a natureza cíclica dos créditos privado e público. Nesse sentido, optou-se pela modelagem econométrica denominada de Modelos Estruturais de Espaço de Estados, também conhecida como Modelos de Componentes não-observáveis. Através desta metodologia, foi possível verificar, de maneira endógena, se existiram e quando ocorreram outliers e quebras estruturais nas séries de dados referentes à evolução do crédito brasileiro no período. Os resultados obtidos vieram a corroborar a hipótese de trabalho, mostrando a existência de uma relação negativa e estatisticamente significante entre as variáveis representativas do produto interno bruto e as do crédito público e do crédito total. Dessa maneira, chegou-se à conclusão de que, realmente, o crédito público mostrou características contra-cíclicas no período de 2003 a 2013, especialmente após o ano de 2008 – fato que é reforçado pela ocorrência de quebras de nível positivas neste ano. / This study analyses the evolution, behavior and cyclical nature of the Brazilian credit supply in the period from January 2003 to December 2013. Specifically, it checks if the posture of public credit supply’s conduction has differed, indeed, from the one presented by the private credit, particularly after the financial crisis of 2007-08. For this purpose, this paper reviews national and international literature and performs a historical examination of the main Brazilian state-owned banks – which is presented concomitantly to the analysis of their lately performance’s evolution. Therewith, besides showing these institutions’ recent performance, it also demonstrates that, in spite of the reduction in the state-owned banks participation in the 1990s, these were decisive to the better reaction of the Brazilian economy in the face of the adverse effects of the 2007-08 crisis – which provides further evidence of the research question validity and brings, therefore, strenght to the working hypothesis. In the next step, some methodological aspects are discussed aiming to identify which would be the most appropriate econometric modelling to find out how the public and private banks behaved in this period, and specifically, to discover how they reacted after the subprime financial crisis – in this point, a research was made in order to identify an approach that, particularly, helped to reveal the cyclical nature of private and public credits. It was decided to use an econometric approach called Space-State Modelling, also known as Unobservable Component Models. Through this methodology, it was possible to check, in an endogenous way, if there were – and when they occurred – outliers and structural breaks in the data series referring to the Brazilian credit evolution in the period. The results came to support the working hypothesis, showing the existence of a negative and statistically significant relationship between the variables representing the gross domestic product and the ones representing public credit and the total credit. Thus, it was concluded that the public credit, indeed, showed counter-cyclical characteristics in the period between 2003 and 2013, especially after 2008 – a fact that is reinforced by the occurrence of positive level breaks in this year.

Актуальность работы состоит в том, что на фоне текущей экономической ситуации компаниям нефтесервисного рынка необходимо отвечать на возникающие вызовы внешней среды. Важность нефтесервисной отрасли для России очевидна, поскольку ее состояние тесно взаимосвязано с положением нефтегазового сектора. В работе рассмотрена эволюция теоретических подходов к разработке стратегии компании, проведен анализ научных взглядов на понятие стратегии, представлена классификация научных школ теории стратегического управления. Рассмотрены структура стратегического потенциала нефтесервисного предприятия и существующий алгоритм разработки стратегии нефтесервисной компании, выявлены факторы экономической нестабильности для предприятий нефтесервисной отрасли. Для разработки стратегии выбрана методика стратегических карт Р. Нортона и Д. Каплана. Для сформулированных целей предложены КПЭ, позволяющие отслеживать прогресс по их достижению на примере компании ООО «БК Евразия». / The relevance of the work is that against the background of the current economic situation, oilfield services market companies need to respond to emerging environmental challenges. The importance of the oilfield services industry for Russia is obvious, since its state is closely interrelated with the situation of the oil and gas sector. The paper considers the evolution of theoretical approaches to the development of a company's strategy, analyzes scientific views on the concept of strategy, and presents a classification of scientific schools of strategic management theory. The structure of the strategic potential of an oilfield service enterprise and the existing algorithm for developing the strategy of an oilfield service company are considered, the factors of economic instability for oilfield service industry enterprises are identified. To develop the strategy, the method of strategic maps by R. Norton and D. Kaplan was chosen. For the formulated goals, KPIs are proposed that allow.

This thesis examines the ways that fluctuations in voter expectations for the state of the economy affect party strategies, throughout 28 countries across the EU and OECD between 1995 and 2021. I thus make a theoretical contribution to the existing research by testing the theoretical models that claim that parties primarily respond to voter preferences and perceptions when conducting their policy strategies. Utilizing data from the Comparative Manifestos Project, the Eurobarometer, QOG and ParlGov, the study examines policy positions on economic issues, as presented in party manifestos ahead of elections. Using fixed-effects regressions with interaction variables, the effects of voter expectations on policy stances are examined, both in parliaments more generally as well as for each party family respectively. Specifically, Social-democratic, conservative, populist, Christian-democratic, and liberal parties are considered. Results show that when citizen expectations for the state of the economy worsen, parties show tendencies of shifting their policy stances to the left across the left-right scale. This is true across parliaments more generally, and results indicate that it may also be true when looking at each party family respectively. Most notably, results show that economic expectations impact the policy positions of parties even when controlling for the actual state of the economy, implying that parties are responsive to voter expectations independently of other macroeconomic considerations.

This research aimed to reflect upon the experiences of children in middle childhood regarding economically unstable circumstances within the family system. The theoretical underpinnings of this study were the ecological systems theory as proposed by Bronfenbrenner, the family systems theory as well as the field theory within the gestalt paradigm. Exploratory, qualitative research design with instrumental case studies was used during this research and data collection was conducted by means of semi-structured interviews with randomly sampled participants and their parents. The researcher interviewed 16 individual children, consisting of seven male and nine female participants. The focus group consisted of seven parents, consisting of two male and five female participants. The researcher arrived at a conclusion that children are indeed influenced by the world wide economic turmoil. The researcher found that children experience the impact of economic instability in various contexts within their field of existence. They experience the effects of economic instability within the household as changes to daily luxuries are visible, conflict between parents increase and they experience an escalation in peer pressure to keep up with the financial expectations of their peers. The researcher is therefore of the opinion that the extent to which the economic unstable circumstances influence and affect children can easily be overlooked. In the absence of voicing the experiences of children, they cannot be fully understood and the researcher recommends that significant role players, such as parents and teachers should be assisted and guided to understand and support their children in a changing world. / Social Work / M. Diac. (Play Therapy)

This research aimed to reflect upon the experiences of children in middle childhood regarding economically unstable circumstances within the family system. The theoretical underpinnings of this study were the ecological systems theory as proposed by Bronfenbrenner, the family systems theory as well as the field theory within the gestalt paradigm. Exploratory, qualitative research design with instrumental case studies was used during this research and data collection was conducted by means of semi-structured interviews with randomly sampled participants and their parents. The researcher interviewed 16 individual children, consisting of seven male and nine female participants. The focus group consisted of seven parents, consisting of two male and five female participants. The researcher arrived at a conclusion that children are indeed influenced by the world wide economic turmoil. The researcher found that children experience the impact of economic instability in various contexts within their field of existence. They experience the effects of economic instability within the household as changes to daily luxuries are visible, conflict between parents increase and they experience an escalation in peer pressure to keep up with the financial expectations of their peers. The researcher is therefore of the opinion that the extent to which the economic unstable circumstances influence and affect children can easily be overlooked. In the absence of voicing the experiences of children, they cannot be fully understood and the researcher recommends that significant role players, such as parents and teachers should be assisted and guided to understand and support their children in a changing world. / Social Work / M. Diac. (Play Therapy)