This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of the series.

The diploma thesis analyses development and current position of China in the world economy. It focuses in detail on the economic reforms being implemented since the end of the 70s, on their course and impact on China's economy, on the economic situation of China at the beginning of 21st century and on the impact of the world crisis on China's economy and its role in international affairs as well. This thesis also deals with China's accession to the World Trade Organization, its commitments, benefits and impacts, and relations, especially economic, with the United States, the European Union and selected countries in the Asian region. The thesis identifies and characterizes some of the main problems which China is facing as a result of its development.

Cette thèse présente une analyse du mode de production chinois depuis les réformes économiques de 1978. Notre recherche prend la forme d’une analyse comparative de la structure économique et sociale de la NEP soviétique et des réformes chinoises en utilisant un cadre théorique marxiste. Notre thèse postule que le mode de production chinois moderne suit une logique semblable au mode de production soviétique à l’époque de la NEP. À la lumière de l’expérience de la NEP, notre recherche montre que la stratégie de développement chinoise ne doit pas être comprise comme étant vers une évolution néolibérale, mais plutôt comme une évolution originale du marxisme, s’inscrivant dans la tradition du marxisme-léninisme, adapté à la cohabitation à un système capitaliste mondialisé. Le modèle de la NEP est l’un des premiers exemples d’un type de socialisme basé en partie sur les relations de marchés. En URSS comme en Chine, les structures critiques de l’économie, une grande régulation et un certain niveau de planification économique sont à la base de ce modèle de marché socialiste. Le socialisme de marché soviétique est basé sur une accommodation avec la paysannerie ainsi que sur les relations de marchés entre paysans et entre petites et moyennes firmes publiques. Le socialisme de marché chinois est lui basé sur l’extraversion de l’économie dans un cadre de modernisation technologique. Les relations de marchés sont aussi importantes en Chine dans l’allocation des ressources aux entreprises. La planification économique est le modèle chinois, mais s’opère dans une optique de coordination économique. Le modèle économique de la NEP et chinois partageant tous deux les mêmes objectifs qui sont théorisés dans le courant marxiste comme étant les bases d’une société socialiste : une modernisation technologique, la construction d’une classe ouvrière, une industrialisation et une amélioration de la qualité de vie de la population. À travers l’étude de la présente structure économique et sociale chinoise, il est possible de vérifier qu’un très grand progrès s’est effectué dans la réalisation de ces objectifs. / This thesis presents an analysis of the Chinese mode of production since the economic reforms of 1978. Our research takes the form of a comparative analysis of the economic and social structure of the Soviet NEP and Chinese reforms using a Marxist theoretical framework. Our thesis postulates that the modern Chinese mode of production follows a logic similar to the Soviet mode of production during the NEP era. In the light of the NEP experience, our research shows that the Chinese development strategy should not be understood as a neoliberal evolution, but rather as an original evolution of Marxism, in line with the tradition of Marxism-Leninism, adapted to the cohabitation with a globalized capitalist system. The NEP model is one of the earliest examples of a type of socialism based in part on market relations. In the USSR as in China, the critical structures of the economy, strong regulations and a certain level of economic planning are the basis of this socialist market model. Soviet market socialism is based on peaceful compromise with the peasantry as well as on market relations between peasants and between small and medium public firms. Chinese market socialism is based on the extraversion of the economy within a framework of technological modernization. Market relations are also important in China in the allocation of resources to companies. Economic planning is at the basis of the Chinese model but is carried out within the context of economic coordination. The economic model of the NEP and the Chinese reforms both share the same objectives which are theorized in the Marxist current as being the foundations of a socialist society: technological modernization, the construction of a working-class, industrialization and improvement of the quality of life of the population. Through the study of the present Chinese economic and social structure, it is possible to verify that great progress has been made in achieving these goals.

This thesis investigates policy formulation and implementation processes in Zambia. A number of issues emerge with respect to the weaknesses of the system and how policy decisions worsened Zambia's economic performance instead of improving it. The Kaunda era policies of nationalization had an adverse impact on productivity of industries as well as affecting the resource flow from donors and business houses. On the other hand President Chiluba's reforms in the 1990s have had both positive and negative impacts on the people of Zambia. The rapid privatization and liberalization affected employment levels thereby worsening the poverty levels. Further, the liberalization brought in stiff competition from other countries forcing most manufacturing companies to close down. The policy environment based on the Bretton Woods Institutions seems not to be working as result of not taking into account the local Zambian situation. On the other hand, there were positive macroeconomic developments such as growth in GDP, lowering of inflation and stabilizing of exchange rates as from 1996. This has however not improved the living standards of the people. In Zambia, the shifts back and forth between strong and weak planning institutions have negatively affected policy development and implementation. There has been uncoordinated policy development; as a result, some policies in the major sectors are contradictory while in other cases policies are not linked to the resource envelope, making them un-implementable. Secondly, the institutional framework for policy development is not effective. There is generally lack of coordination among ministries, provinces and other stakeholders in planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of development programmes. This thesis urges that the improving planning capacities at the national, provincial and district levels should improve the processes of policy development and implementation in Zambia, which will in turn help to reduce poverty. Further, the districts should be the centre for the bottom-up process. In order to carryout this responsibility, efforts should be made to improve their capacities. As for the top-down process, the Sector Advisory Groups should continue to participate in the planning, monitoring and evaluation so as to contribute to policy formulation and implementation. These should be coordinated by the National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC) through a Planning Bureau. / Development Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Development Studies)

La réduction importante de l'aide internationale au développement et le processus de mondialisation ont fait en sorte que les investissements étrangers directs (IBD) sont considérés de nos jours comme une source importante de capital et de croissance économique dans un pays d'accueil comme la Serbie. Les IBD sont réputés stimuler la concurrence, l'innovation, l'épargne, la création d'emplois et le développement des ressources humaines dans les pays les plus pauvres et ceux en transition. Les institutions internationales encouragent la promotion des IBD dans tels pays et incitent leurs gouvernements à œuvrer à leur promotion active en tant que localité attrayante pour les obtenir. Il existe aussi un consensus selon lequel les investisseurs étrangers sont attirés par les pays dont le système juridique est stable et prévisible et qui réglemente l'économie selon le modèle d'une économie de marché. Si les réformes juridiques sont incontestablement importantes pour attirer les IBD, notre étude cherche à vérifier quel est le véritable impact du droit interne et des institutions étatiques du pays d'accueil sur l'établissement des entreprises étrangères et sur l'exercice de leur activité économique dans ce pays. Il s'agit de voir de quelle manière la présence des investisseurs étrangers contribue à la consolidation de l'État de droit dans le pays d'accueil. Pour analyser ces questions de plus près, nous avons choisi l'étude de cas de la Serbie, dont le système juridique est en chantier depuis le changement de régime en 2000. Notre hypothèse de travail a supposé que l'instauration de l'État de droit était importante pour l'implantation des investisseurs étrangers dans le pays, car les institutions étatiques et juridiques pourraient offrir des garanties pour le bon déroulement de l'activité économique étrangère. Après avoir étudié le cas de la Serbie, il y a lieu de conclure que la réforme du cadre juridique interne joue un rôle important, mais toutefois non déterminant dans le choix de la localisation d'un investissement étranger. Notre étude montre que la motivation en matière d'investissement ne tient généralement pas compte de la normativité juridique comme facteur à considérer, c'est-à-dire parmi les facteurs définis par la théorie du OLI Paradigm de John Dunning. Toutefois, ce facteur joue un rôle politique par le fait qu'il est véhiculé dans le droit international et dans le discours des organisations internationales. Les investisseurs demeurent également attentifs à la législation pouvant influencer leur propre activité économique. Nos entretiens ont révélé l'existence d'une véritable volonté de la part des investisseurs de favoriser les réformes juridiques du pays d'accueil. Leur perception du cadre juridique favorable au plan économique peut éventuellement jouer un certain rôle dans la transformation de l'État de droit et des institutions juridiques du pays d'accueil. Mais les entrepreneurs n'attendent pas un cadre juridique reformé dans le pays d'accueil pour décider d'y investir. En résumé, l'amélioration des institutions de l'État de droit concerne au premier chef des services sociaux de qualité et des meilleures conditions économiques pour ses citoyens. La promotion des IBD dans le pays ne constitue pas un objectif en soi mais s'inscrit dans la politique d'un État de droit en tant qu'outil indispensable de réformes et constitue un facteur favorable au développement économique. / Foreign direct investments (FDI) are considered an important source of capital and economic growth, due notably to significant restrictions of development aid in poor countries and countries in transition and to globalization. FDI are presumed to stimulate competition, innovation, savings, employment and quality of human resources. International financial institutions encourage governments to promote their countries as an attractive destination to FDI. At the same time, they insist on the fact, in states in transition, that FDI require the respect of the Rule of Law and predictable local legal norms suitable to the market economy. If the reform of law is of crucial importance to attract FDI, our thesis is trying to evaluate and analyze the impact of law and stable state institutions on FDI entry and economic growth in Serbia, our case study. It is also exploring to what extent the presence of the FDI contributes to the consolidation of the Rule of Law in this country. It is studying the legal system that has been put in place in Serbia between 2000 and 2007 and since the change of political regime. Our hypothesis was that the Rule of Law is important for FDI as it offers a good starting point for the increasing of economic activity in the host state. But our conclusion is that the improvement of the local legal system plays an important but not decisive role in localization of foreign investments. The case study shows that investors' motivation to invest is complex and determined by more than one factor. Sometimes, investors are not considering the fragile state of the legal system of the host country to invest. Our thesis confirms Dunning's OLI Paradigm. However, our interviews have revealed that investors can pay special attention to the improvement of legislation that has a specific impact on their own economic activity and may influence the reform of private law in the host state. At the same time, investors do not fear that the deficiencies of local law will have a detrimental impact on their investments. In conclusion, States in transition must be concerned, first of all, by the improvement of social and economic services to their citizens. Therefore, FDI promotion should also be tied to this aim to promote legal reform and economic development in states in transition.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

La réduction importante de l'aide internationale au développement et le processus de mondialisation ont fait en sorte que les investissements étrangers directs (IBD) sont considérés de nos jours comme une source importante de capital et de croissance économique dans un pays d'accueil comme la Serbie. Les IBD sont réputés stimuler la concurrence, l'innovation, l'épargne, la création d'emplois et le développement des ressources humaines dans les pays les plus pauvres et ceux en transition. Les institutions internationales encouragent la promotion des IBD dans tels pays et incitent leurs gouvernements à œuvrer à leur promotion active en tant que localité attrayante pour les obtenir. Il existe aussi un consensus selon lequel les investisseurs étrangers sont attirés par les pays dont le système juridique est stable et prévisible et qui réglemente l'économie selon le modèle d'une économie de marché. Si les réformes juridiques sont incontestablement importantes pour attirer les IBD, notre étude cherche à vérifier quel est le véritable impact du droit interne et des institutions étatiques du pays d'accueil sur l'établissement des entreprises étrangères et sur l'exercice de leur activité économique dans ce pays. Il s'agit de voir de quelle manière la présence des investisseurs étrangers contribue à la consolidation de l'État de droit dans le pays d'accueil. Pour analyser ces questions de plus près, nous avons choisi l'étude de cas de la Serbie, dont le système juridique est en chantier depuis le changement de régime en 2000. Notre hypothèse de travail a supposé que l'instauration de l'État de droit était importante pour l'implantation des investisseurs étrangers dans le pays, car les institutions étatiques et juridiques pourraient offrir des garanties pour le bon déroulement de l'activité économique étrangère. Après avoir étudié le cas de la Serbie, il y a lieu de conclure que la réforme du cadre juridique interne joue un rôle important, mais toutefois non déterminant dans le choix de la localisation d'un investissement étranger. Notre étude montre que la motivation en matière d'investissement ne tient généralement pas compte de la normativité juridique comme facteur à considérer, c'est-à-dire parmi les facteurs définis par la théorie du OLI Paradigm de John Dunning. Toutefois, ce facteur joue un rôle politique par le fait qu'il est véhiculé dans le droit international et dans le discours des organisations internationales. Les investisseurs demeurent également attentifs à la législation pouvant influencer leur propre activité économique. Nos entretiens ont révélé l'existence d'une véritable volonté de la part des investisseurs de favoriser les réformes juridiques du pays d'accueil. Leur perception du cadre juridique favorable au plan économique peut éventuellement jouer un certain rôle dans la transformation de l'État de droit et des institutions juridiques du pays d'accueil. Mais les entrepreneurs n'attendent pas un cadre juridique reformé dans le pays d'accueil pour décider d'y investir. En résumé, l'amélioration des institutions de l'État de droit concerne au premier chef des services sociaux de qualité et des meilleures conditions économiques pour ses citoyens. La promotion des IBD dans le pays ne constitue pas un objectif en soi mais s'inscrit dans la politique d'un État de droit en tant qu'outil indispensable de réformes et constitue un facteur favorable au développement économique. / Foreign direct investments (FDI) are considered an important source of capital and economic growth, due notably to significant restrictions of development aid in poor countries and countries in transition and to globalization. FDI are presumed to stimulate competition, innovation, savings, employment and quality of human resources. International financial institutions encourage governments to promote their countries as an attractive destination to FDI. At the same time, they insist on the fact, in states in transition, that FDI require the respect of the Rule of Law and predictable local legal norms suitable to the market economy. If the reform of law is of crucial importance to attract FDI, our thesis is trying to evaluate and analyze the impact of law and stable state institutions on FDI entry and economic growth in Serbia, our case study. It is also exploring to what extent the presence of the FDI contributes to the consolidation of the Rule of Law in this country. It is studying the legal system that has been put in place in Serbia between 2000 and 2007 and since the change of political regime. Our hypothesis was that the Rule of Law is important for FDI as it offers a good starting point for the increasing of economic activity in the host state. But our conclusion is that the improvement of the local legal system plays an important but not decisive role in localization of foreign investments. The case study shows that investors' motivation to invest is complex and determined by more than one factor. Sometimes, investors are not considering the fragile state of the legal system of the host country to invest. Our thesis confirms Dunning's OLI Paradigm. However, our interviews have revealed that investors can pay special attention to the improvement of legislation that has a specific impact on their own economic activity and may influence the reform of private law in the host state. At the same time, investors do not fear that the deficiencies of local law will have a detrimental impact on their investments. In conclusion, States in transition must be concerned, first of all, by the improvement of social and economic services to their citizens. Therefore, FDI promotion should also be tied to this aim to promote legal reform and economic development in states in transition.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

International trade ties the world together and is hypothetically fair and equal. In reality, it is highly asymmetrical and poses a significant challenge for developing countries. A massive sea change occurred in the international trade regime during the Uruguay Round of negotiations of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) from 1986 to 1994. Developing countries as a whole began to embrace liberal trade policies which seemed to be the only alternative to failing import substitution industrialization (ISI). An historical comparative account describing and explaining this transformation of developing countries’ attitudes toward the GATT is used in this dissertation to provide an alternative explanation for the transition of developing countries from having little interest in the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations to sharply changing course and adopting neo-liberal policies which supported the conclusion of the Round. Three theoretical approaches seek to explain why this change occurred, including: liberal trade theory (economic reforms), dependency theory (external forces) and constructivism (the role epistemic communities). The Uruguay Round negotiations were dynamic and heavily influenced by two power-house developing economies, India and Brazil, who were initially opposed to the Round itself. Kenya found itself in a starkly different situation with minimal ability to participate or influence negotiations. These three countries constitute the study’s illustrative case studies. As negotiations progressed, India and Brazil changed course and agreed to the Round’s ‘single-undertaking’ and the ‘inequitable Grand Bargain’ between the developed and developing economies. This subsequently led to other developing countries following suit through a powerful demonstration effect in a trade-off between the inclusion of trade in services and intellectual property for reforms in agriculture and textiles & clothing. While economic reforms began to occur and attitudes began to change during the Uruguay Round itself, assessing developing countries during the Round found that no single theoretical approach can explain developing countries’ transformation; rather each had their own trajectory for their economic reforms. A multi-dimensional conclusion provides the most comprehensive account of this transformation of the global trade regime.

This study empirically investigates the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in three Southern African Development Community countries, namely: Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa, using annual data for the period 1970-2013. The study uses the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error correction model. In Malawi, the study finds that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively associated, while inflation is negatively associated with economic growth in the short run. In the long run, the results reveal that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively and significantly associated, while population growth and inflation are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In Zambia, the short-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while government consumption, international trade, and foreign aid are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. The long-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while foreign aid is negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In South Africa, the study results show that in the short run, investment is positively and significantly associated, while population growth and government consumption are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In the long run, the results reveal that economic growth is positively and significantly associated with investment, human capital development, and international trade, but negatively and significantly associated with population growth, government consumption, and inflation. These results all have significant policy implications. It is recommended that Malawian authorities should focus on strategies that attract investment: in addition there is a need to improve the quality of education, encourage export diversification, reduce population growth, and ensure inflation stability. Similarly Zambian authorities should focus on creation of incentives that attract investment, provision of quality education: moreover they need to improve government effectiveness, encourage international trade and ensure the effectiveness of development aid. South African authorities are recommended to focus on policies that attract investments, the provision of quality education, and trade liberalisation: concomitantly there is also a need to reduce population growth, government consumption and inflation. / Economics / Ph.D. (Economics)