The dissertation explored the efficacy of using a POMDP to select and apply appropriate instruction. POMDPs are a tool for planning: selecting a sequence of actions that will lead to an optimal outcome. RTI is an approach to instruction, where teachers craft individual plans for students based on the results of screening test. The goal is to determine whether the plans crafted by a POMDP model in a RTI setting offer advantages over the current practice that uses simple cut score methods. Two simulated data sets were used to compare the two approaches; the model had a single latent reading construct and two observed reading measures: Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF) for phonological awareness and Nonsense Word Fluency (NWF) for phonics. The simulation studies evaluated the POMDPs forecasts of the students' end-of-year reading performance, and the studies compared how the students were placed into instructional groups using the two approaches. The POMDP-RTI model forecasted the students PSF and NWF scores for the last time period based on their scores in the previous time period as well as a forecast standard deviation. In the study, 91% of PSF scores and 94% of NWF scores fell within two standard deviations. The assignment to tiers was very different (after the initial time block) with just over half the students assigned differently under the two models at the last time point. The growth was better under the POMDP-RTI approach with a difference in mean reading ability of .49 on a standardized scale. The gain is because the POMDP model can take into account past observations and instructional history in its forecasts. / A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Educational Psychology and Learning Systems in partial fulfillment of the Doctor of Philosophy. / Spring Semester 2016. / March 31, 2016. / MCMC, POMDP, POMDP-RTI, RTI / Includes bibliographical references. / Russell G. Almond, Professor Directing Dissertation; Young-Suk Kim, University Representative; Betsy J. Becker, Committee Member; Insu Paek, Committee Member.

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