Problem background and discussion: Emerging countries economies are growing substantially; one of these is India which stock market has been one of the best performing in the world in recent years. Analysts are forecasting further development and some claims that India has the most business- and investment-stimulating political leaders in the world. However, stock markets in emerging countries are highly volatile and normally more risky than in developed economies. One approach to emphasise the more common risks in emerging countries are by including Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) rating into the fundamental investment model. However, there is a conflict of what previous studies suggest regarding ESG investments. Some argues there is a positive relation and others a negative relation between ESG factors and risk- adjusted return. Research question: “Is there a relation between risk-adjusted return and ESG performance at the Indian stock market?” Objective: The objective is to determine if there is a relationship between ESG performance and risk-adjusted return in India. Another objective is to determine if there is a relationship between ESG performance and risk-adjusted return among companies with high Total ESG rating as well as for companies with low Total ESG rating. Theoretical framework: ESG is an established approach to describe sustainability issues, where screening is a process designed to select those companies that meet ESG criteria. A basic description of Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM, which calculates an asset's expected return, has been used to calculate risk-adjusted return. Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH is the basic theory of market efficiency and is used to explain any non-linear relationship between ESG factors and risk-adjusted returns. Adaptive Market Hypothesis AMH has been taken into account as it deals with financial behaviour. Method: A quantitative study using a deductive approach has been selected to perform this study. The practical approach is a cross sectional study where the relationship in the Indian market has been analysed and significance-tested during 2014. ESG information for 126 companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has been purchased from Sustainalytics, a global leader in research for responsible investment. Empirical findings and analysis: The results of the study demonstrate no significant relationship between Total ESG rating and risk-adjusted return during 2014. In the examination of individual categories, Environmental and Social rating does not have a significant association with the risk-adjusted Return. Though, the results display a negative relationship between Governance rating and risk-adjusted return. This relationship is also obtained among companies in with low Total ESG rating but not companies with high ESG rating. Conclusion: Results implies that investors have not been able to use the information of Total ESG performance to obtain a better risk-adjusted return on the Indian stock market in 2014. However, this can be achieved by using Governance rating.

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The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most important propositions in finance theory and has been subjected to years of rigorous empirical testing. We examine power of a new tool for evaluating market efficiency, fractal dimension. Characteristics and abilities of fractal dimension measure are explored through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We prove that it provides an accurate evaluation of market's efficiency and its changes. This approach is highly innovative and creates new possibilities for examination of markets. The uniqueness of fractal dimension is in its ability to assign a numerical ranking to examined series describing the level of (in)efficiency; it is accurate for small samples of observations and quickly reflects changes in market efficiency structure. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2015. / Researchers have suggested that emerging markets’ activity is driven largely by unlisted companies. These companies are dynamic, and show a relatively equitable income distribution. However, they operate under severe challenges which can be a deterrent to their success. In spite of these difficulties, the companies form exceptional investment targets due to their innovative abilities, ability to customize products and formulate business models that reduce bottlenecks and input costs as well as take advantage of economies of scale and scope. Important risk factors such as: political, currency, corporate governance and information risks, amongst others, should be factored in during the valuation process of emerging market companies. In this paper, several criteria are used to assess thirteen popular emerging market valuation models’ ability to effectively incorporate these risks. Based on the outcomes of the assessment a best fit model is selected. However, none of the emerging market valuation models explicitly factor in irrationality of market participants. In order to address this, the study focuses on seven behavioural approaches to valuation under the assumption of investor rationality and managerial overconfidence and/or optimism, with a purpose to select one to include in the above mentioned “best fit” emerging market valuation models. Next, assessment mechanisms for adapting these two models for private company valuation were flagged by discussing approaches currently used in academia and corporate finance. Finally, possible means of combining the three objectives, and assessing the success of doing so, as an area for further research, were recommended. Key Words: emerging markets, valuation, risk premium, country risk, systematic risk, unsystematic risk, private companies, managerial overconfidence, managerial optimism, irrationality, efficient markets, capital asset pricing model

A sinalização, formação e descoberta de preços agrícolas são adequadas se refletem rapidamente todas as informações recebidas pelos seus participantes. Então, quando o mercado é eficiente, possibilita eficiência alocativa, redução de imprecisão nas decisões dos agentes e dos custos informacionais. Entretanto, os agentes do agronegócio podem tomar decisões errôneas de produção, comercialização e estocagem, sujeitas ao conjunto de informações incompletas contidas nos preços passados, se os mercados forem não eficientes. Nesse contexto, o objetivo geral foi analisar a eficiência dos mercados futuros de commodities. Para atingi-lo, estruturou-se esta pesquisa em três ensaios. No primeiro, objetivou-se testar a hipótese de passeio aleatório a contratos futuros agropecuários negociados na BM&FBOVESPA. Refutá-la significa possível previsibilidade e, por conseguinte, os mercados não seriam fracamente eficientes. Correlações seriais e testes de razão de variância foram utilizados para verificá-las. Os resultados deram suporte à hipótese de passeio aleatório nos mercados futuros de café e da soja, eficientes na forma fraca, e evidências contrárias foram encontradas nos mercados do boi gordo, milho e etanol. No segundo, o objetivo foi investigar a eficiência e formações de clusters nos contratos futuros do complexo soja (soja, farelo de soja e óleo de soja) negociados nas bolsas de commodities: argentina, brasileira, chinesa, indiana, japonesa, norte-americana e sul-africana. Com base na métrica obtida por distância euclidiana de razões de variância, evidenciaram-se dependências similares dos mercados, as quais podem ser interpretadas como efeito espraiamento da eficiência informacional. Os agentes devem, portanto, manter percepções em relação aos diversos mercados devido às sinalizações interdependentes dos preços. No terceiro, objetivou-se analisar a eficiência dos mercados futuros agropecuários brasileiros, sob a hipótese adaptativa de mercado. Utilizando propostas recentes à não linearidade e razão de variância, encontrou-se que as elevadas rejeições à hipótese de diferença martingal se encontram nos mercados em que as intervenções governamentais se fazem presentes: milho e etanol. Nos mercados de café, boi gordo e soja ocorreram menores rejeições à hipótese martingal e, portanto, houve maior eficiência informacional. Essas evidências--consistentes com a hipótese adaptativa dos mercados--justificam operações de hedge dinâmicas, bem como a gerência de carteiras de investimentos de forma ativa. / Agricultural prices\' formation, discovery and signalling only are accurate when they can rapidly reflect all new information faced by its market agents. Thereby, when a given market is efficient, it allows for allocative efficiency, reducing inefficiencies both in decision-making process and in informational costs. On the other hand, when markets are said not to be efficient, agribusinesses\' agents can make mistaken production, marketing and storage decisions, once such decisions are due to incomplete information contained in past prices. In this context, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiency in future markets of commodities. In order to achieve its final goal, the study has been structured in three essays. In the first essay, the random walk hypothesis has been tested for agricultural future contracts from Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BMF&BOVESPA). Refusing the hypothesis for a given commodity implies some degree of predictability, therefore inconsistent even with a weak notion of efficiency. These tests were carried out using serial correlations and variance ratios. The results show the presence of random walks in coffee and soybean future markets, and contrary evidences (absence of random walks) in live cattle, corn and ethanol future markets. In the second essay, it has been analyzed the efficiency and the presence of clusters in the soybean complex future contracts (soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil) traded in the following future markets: Argentina (MTB), Brazil (BVMF), China (DCE), India (NCD), Japan (TKT), US (CBT) and South-Africa (SAF). Based on the metrics obtained by Euclidian distances of variance ratios, similar dependencies have been found for all markets, which suggest informational efficiency spreading. Agents, therefore, shall maintain perceptions over several international markets, given the interdependence found for prices in distinct future markets. In the third one, the adaptive market hypothesis has been tested for agricultural future markets in Brazil. Applying more recent approaches to Nonlinearity and Variance Ratio tests, high rejections to martingale difference hypothesis took place in agricultural markets which governmental interference is highly persistent, i.e., corn and ethanol. In coffee, live cattle and soybeans markets, weaker rejections to the martingale hypothesis hint higher informational efficiency. These evidences, consistent with the adaptive market hypothesis, justify dynamic hedge operations, as well as an active management of investment portfolios in such markets.

Background: A well-known study, similar to ours, was made in 1985 in America, showing that "loser" portfolios outperformed the market while "winner" portfolios earned less return than the market. This finding is not in accordance with the theory of efficient markets. If a market is efficient, there should be no possibility of making sustainable excess returns and prices should follow a random walk. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study a "winner" portfolio and a "loser" portfolio in order to establish whether the Swedish stock market is efficient in the weak form. We will study the efficiency of the A-list at Stockholm Stock Exchange. Delimitations: We test efficiency of the Swedish stock market in the weak form. Our investigation comprises stocks registered on the A-list of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. We do not take tax- and transactions costs into consideration in this study. Methodology: "Winner" and "loser" portfolios are formed for the period 1997- 2002. We keep the portfolios during a test period of one year, i.e. form new portfolios at the end of each year. The first winner and loser portfolios are selected on the last day of trading in 1996 and the last two portfolios are selected on the last day of trading in 2001. Results: Our result indicates that the Swedish stock market is efficient in the weak form during the period 1997-2002.

Bakgrund: Börsen ger en möjlighet för företag att erhålla kapital och för placerare atttillgodogöra sig avkastning. Personer med insyn i det egna företaget, så kalladeinsiders, kan dock i egenskap av sin position inneha kurspåverkande information somövriga aktörer på marknaden inte har möjlighet att ta del av. Tidigare forskning harpåvisat att insiders utnyttjar denna informationsasymmetri för att på så sätt tillgodogörasig överavkastning. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om insiders kan tillgodogöra sigöveravkastning genom handel med aktier på Nasdaq OMX. Vidare ämnar studienutröna eventuella skillnader i överavkastning beroende på företagsstorlek,transaktionsstorlek samt tidsperiod. Metod: I denna studie har en kvantitativ forskningsstrategi i form av en eventstudietillämpats. Studien har en deduktiv ansats och undersöker insidertransaktioner från 90företag på stockholmsbörsen under tidsperioden 2006-01-01 till 2011-12-31. Förberäkning av överavkastning har den justerade marknadsmodellen använts. Kursdata förrespektive företag har hämtats från databasen Thomson Reuters EcoWin Pro.Information om insidertransaktioner har hämtats från finansinspektionensinsynsregister. Resultat: Resultatet visar att insiders tillgodogör sig överavkastning genom handel medaktier i det egna företaget, främst i samband med säljtransaktioner. / People with insight into their own company, also known as insiders, can have access toprice-sensitive information which other investors are not able to access. Previousresearch has shown that insiders exploit this asymmetric information to thereby obtainabnormal returns. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether insiders can obtain abnormal returnsby trading shares on Nasdaq OMX. Furthermore, the study aims to investigate if thereare any differences in the abnormal return depending on company size, transaction size,and time period. This study investigates insider transactions of 90 companies on the Stockholm StockExchange during the time period 2006-01-01 to 2011-12-31. The results show that insiders obtain abnormal returns by trading shares in their owncompany. The abnormal returns occur primarily related to sales transactions.

När man väljer att analysera företag, finns det flera olika värderingsmodeller att använda.En av dessa är Piotroskis F-score. Denna modell har mestadels tidigare använts för att analysera företag på den amerikanska marknaden. Nu vill författarna undersöka hur tillämpbar modellen är på den svenska aktiemarknaden och dessutom kombinera denna modell med en Magic Sixes värdering för att öka dess precision. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om F-score i samarbete med Magic Sixes kan generera överavkastning och överträffa den svenska aktiemarknaden. Författarna har genomfört en kvantitativ studie med en deduktiv ansats. Data har samlats in med hjälp av databasen Orbis och Dagens Industri. Författarna har upprättat identiska listor för att beräkna företagens F-score och Magic Sixes. Därefter har en beräkning av portföljernas lönsamhet genomförts. Författarnas studie har visat att F-score i kombination med Magic Sixes lyckas slå marknaden under 3 av de 6 studerade åren. F-score har en träffsäkerhet på 65,15% och Magic Sixes har en träffsäkerhet på 58,82%. Modellerna bör inte användas självständigt eller i kombination med varandra som enda grund för ett beslut, men bör ses mer som ett komplement till andra analysmetoder. Slutsatsen är att modellerna kan ge en god indikation på huruvida investerare bör undersöka investeringsobjektet närmare.

The post earnings announcement drift is a market anomaly causing a firms cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise. By measuring quarterly earnings surprises using two measures. The first based upon a times series prediction and the other based upon on analyst forecast errors. This study finds evidence that the drift ex-ists in Sweden and that investor’s systematically underreacts towards positive earnings sur-prises. Further this study shows that the cumulative average abnormal returns is larger for surprises caused by analyst forecast errors. While previous studies have tried to explain the drift by taking on additional risk or illiquidity in the stocks. This study provides evidence supporting that investors limitations in weighting new information causes an underreaction, hence a drift in the stock prices.

<p>Background: A well-known study, similar to ours, was made in 1985 in America, showing that "loser" portfolios outperformed the market while "winner" portfolios earned less return than the market. This finding is not in accordance with the theory of efficient markets. If a market is efficient, there should be no possibility of making sustainable excess returns and prices should follow a random walk. </p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study a "winner" portfolio and a "loser" portfolio in order to establish whether the Swedish stock market is efficient in the weak form. We will study the efficiency of the A-list at Stockholm Stock Exchange. </p><p>Delimitations: We test efficiency of the Swedish stock market in the weak form. Our investigation comprises stocks registered on the A-list of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. We do not take tax- and transactions costs into consideration in this study. </p><p>Methodology: "Winner" and "loser" portfolios are formed for the period 1997- 2002. We keep the portfolios during a test period of one year, i.e. form new portfolios at the end of each year. The first winner and loser portfolios are selected on the last day of trading in 1996 and the last two portfolios are selected on the last day of trading in 2001. </p><p>Results: Our result indicates that the Swedish stock market is efficient in the weak form during the period 1997-2002.</p>